{"id":25547,"date":"2025-08-18T17:37:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T00:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/?p=25547"},"modified":"2025-08-23T10:45:38","modified_gmt":"2025-08-23T17:45:38","slug":"the-ultimate-cognitive-bias-and-political-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/2025\/08\/18\/the-ultimate-cognitive-bias-and-political-news\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ultimate Cognitive Bias, and Political News"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Steve Stewart-Williams about an attempt to identify the one cognitive bias to rule them all: the confirmation bias;<\/li>\n<li>Political notes: How Trump claims victory yet again; how even Fox News noticed that not much was accomplished at that summit;<\/li>\n<li>And Salon&#8217;s Amanda Marcotte on why MAGA calls Trump &#8220;Daddy&#8221;.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div align=\"center\">&#8211; &#8211; &#8211;<\/div>\n<p>Via <a href=\"https:\/\/whyevolutionistrue.com\/2025\/08\/17\/sunday-hili-dialogue-547\/\">Jerry Coyne<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.unsplash.com\/photo-1644526284291-d896f208555e\" width=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Steve Stewart-Williams, The Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche Newsletter, 9 Aug 2025<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stevestewartwilliams.com\/p\/one-bias-to-rule-them-all-98c\">One Bias to Rule Them All<\/a>, subtitled &#8220;All cognitive biases = one of a handful of fundamental beliefs + confirmation bias&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>(Actually a repost of something earlier, the writer acknowledges. I have a book by this author that looks intriguing but have not yet read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0521762782\">Darwin, God and the Meaning of Life: How Evolutionary Theory Undermines Everything You Thought You Knew<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>In some cases science grows increasingly complex; from other perspectives these complexities reduce down to a few basic principles. (See <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/2022\/03\/02\/david-deutsch-the-fabric-of-reality\/\">Deutsch: THE FABRIC OF REALITY<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>The writer is calling out the ballooning of identified cognitive biases:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Psychologists have posited hundreds of cognitive biases over the years, from hindsight bias to ingroup-outgroup bias to the fundamental attribution error. They\u2019ve even proposed a <\/em>bias bias<em>: a tendency to overestimate the impact of cognitive biases on (other) people\u2019s thinking. Inventing and cataloging biases seems to be one of psychologists\u2019 favorite pastimes.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>But a fascinating <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/17456916221148147\" rel=\"\">recent paper<\/a> by Aileen Oeberst and Roland Imhoff argues that all our cognitive biases boil down to one of a handful of fundamental beliefs, coupled with just one \u201cultimate\u201d bias. The fundamental beliefs include such ideas as \u201cI make correct assessments\u201d and \u201cI am good.\u201d And the ultimate bias is <\/em>confirmation bias<em>: the tendency to seek and favor information consistent with one\u2019s preexisting views.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>In this post, I\u2019ll look at a range of common cognitive biases, and the six fundamental beliefs that give rise to them.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>He gives examples of a chart of a <a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!FhW4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdb5bdb9-2dd1-43ae-b87e-3b18c8299014_1177x3788.png\">chart of 50 Cognitive Biases<\/a> [this is an image link] and even more complex <a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!rPE9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4543e29-4a54-4f49-8459-65fbededfe1e_2048x1638.jpeg\">Cognitive Bias Codes<\/a> [another link to an image] from 2016.<\/p>\n<p>Happenstance, this is how science works, over history. Many many examples of a phenomenon are identified and organized and classified, until someone comes along and sees the common threads, and proposes a unification theory. As Deutsch suggested, this is possible because we do actually live in a single universe governed by common universal laws.<\/p>\n<p>The article cited claims &#8220;Six Fundamental Beliefs that Bias Our View of the World&#8221;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>My experience is a reasonable reference;<\/li>\n<li>I make correct assessments of the world;<\/li>\n<li>I am good;<\/li>\n<li>My group is a reasonable reference;<\/li>\n<li>My group (members) is (are) good;<\/li>\n<li>People&#8217;s attributes (not context) shape outcome.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>I haven&#8217;t subscribed to the writer&#8217;s site (yet), and so for this list I&#8217;m relying on the screen capture from Jerry Coyne.<\/p>\n<p>But again: the one bias to rule them all is the <strong>confirmation bias<\/strong>. It&#8217;s how people view the world as they want it to be. Not how it actually is.<\/p>\n<p>\\\\\\<\/p>\n<p>Political items from JMG:<\/p>\n<p>Once again, without evidence, Trump declares victory.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.joemygod.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Trump2025LookingRight-660x330.jpg\" width=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>JMG,18 Aug 2025<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joemygod.com\/2025\/08\/trump-dc-is-now-the-safest-city-in-the-world\/\">Trump: DC Is Now \u201cThe Safest City In The World\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p>OK, I&#8217;ll quote this one, from Truth Social.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;D.C. gave Fake Crime numbers in order to create a false illusion of safety. This is a very bad and dangerous thing to do, and they are under serious investigation for so doing! Until 4 days ago, Washington, D.C., was the most unsafe \u2018city\u2019 in the United States, and perhaps the World. Now, in just a short period of time, it is perhaps the safest, and getting better every single hour! People are flocking to D.C. again, and soon, the beautification will begin!\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So now, let&#8217;s see, what is he saying? The old crime numbers for DC &#8212; about crime having fallen in recent years &#8212; were fake, because Trump wanted this crisis of crime in the capital to be real. But now the crime numbers are OK, because he intervened! DC is safe!<\/p>\n<p>Is anyone fooled by this?<\/p>\n<p>\\\\\\<\/p>\n<p>Even Fox News noticed.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.joemygod.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/vague-660x330.jpg\" width=\"300\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>JMG, 18 Aug 2025<\/strong>, via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thedailybeast.com\/fox-host-howard-kurtz-humiliates-trump-with-savage-take-on-putin-summit\/\">The Daily Beast<\/a>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joemygod.com\/2025\/08\/fox-host-roasts-summit-not-much-accomplished\/\">Fox Host Roasts Summit: \u201cNot Much Accomplished\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Fox News host Howard Kurtz has delivered a brutal assessment of President Donald Trump\u2019s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Media Buzz host said Sunday that \u201cdespite some upbeat talk\u201d after Friday\u2019s summit on ending Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, \u201cit was clear not much was accomplished.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNo ceasefire, no details, no questions from the press, just vague assurances that some progress was made without explaining what that was,\u201d he continued.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>JMG notes &#8220;The cult is demanding that Fox fire Kurtz. Because of course.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\\\\\\<\/p>\n<p>Another political item, deeper.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Donald-Trump-2230146187.jpg\" width=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Salon, Amanda Marcotte, 18 Aug 2025<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2025\/08\/18\/why-maga-calls-trump-daddy\/\">Why MAGA calls Trump \u201cDaddy\u201d<\/a>, subtitled &#8220;Yes, it&#8217;s a weird sex thing. But it also reveals secret insecurities&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Now, it is easy to speculate why this would be. Conservatives are authoritarian minded; they revel in their Daddy God; they don&#8217;t want to think too much and want to rely on a powerful father-figure to tell them want to do. But let&#8217;s see what Marcotte says. Beginning:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The MAGA movement is determined to make politics as disgusting as possible, destroying democracy one juvenile 4chan meme at a time. It turns out that American fascism isn\u2019t just <a href=\"https:\/\/about.illinoisstate.edu\/sinclairlewis\/faq\/\">wrapped in a flag<\/a> and carrying a cross, but accuses women of having \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/media\/news\/the-5-wildest-moments-from-laura-loomers-rollercoaster-bill-maher-defamation-depostion\/\">Arby\u2019s in your pants<\/a>,\u201d claims immigrants <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2024\/09\/10\/shares-anti-haitian-cat-memes-ahead-of-first-presidential-debate\/\">eat people\u2019s pets<\/a>\u00a0and peddles conspiracy theories that politicians\u2019 wives are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2025\/08\/15\/why-candace-owens-wont-stop-her-transvestigations\/\">secretly trans<\/a>. In their mission to gross out normal people, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/topic\/donald_trump\">Donald Trump<\/a>\u2018s followers, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/shorts\/H5umZCiC524\">much to his delight,<\/a> like to call him \u201cDaddy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It seemed to have really taken off in October, when Tucker Carlson gave his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2024\/10\/25\/daddys-home-tucker-carlsons-bizarre-distills-false-promise-to-male\/\">\u201cDaddy\u2019s home\u201d speech<\/a> at a Georgia campaign rally. He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2024\/10\/24\/tucker-carlson-shares-fantasy-likening-to-a-dad-spanks-his-bad-little-girl\/\">likened Trump to an abusive father<\/a>, and compared America to his teenaged victim, all in an unsubtly sexualized way. \u201cWhen dad gets home, you know what he says? \u2018You\u2019ve been a bad girl. You\u2019ve been a bad little girl, and you\u2019re getting a vigorous spanking right now,\u201d Carlson said, as the crowd cheered wildly.<\/p>\n<p>MAGA crowds loved imagining their leader as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2024\/05\/14\/songs-for-people-after-the-protest-kathleen-hanna-makes-clear-shes-a-musician-not-activist\/\">Incest Daddy<\/a>, dishing out humiliating vengeance on \u201cnaughty\u201d Americans, whom they imagined as liberals, feminists, queer people, racial minorities. At rallies, they would chant \u201cDaddy\u2019s home\u201d as they fantasized about the horrors Trump would unleash on their perceived enemies.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>With examples of people actually saying &#8220;Daddy Trump.&#8221; And what I would say, again, is a reversion to the most primitive state of human nature.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>No doubt a lot of this is sublimated sexuality, which is often the case with a right-wing that outwardly embraces Christian right hostility to most forms of sexual expression. But it is the power dynamic that Carlson invoked \u2014 the large man versus the small girl \u2014 that really distills why Trump and the MAGA movement are so attracted to this \u201cDaddy\u201d idea. Fascism is a vehicle for weak, insecure people to feel powerful in the most cowardly way possible: By violating and abusing those they believe can\u2019t fight back. It\u2019s the attitude of the rapist and the child abuser, someone who pathetically congratulates himself for being \u201ctough\u201d because of his violence, but who fears taking on someone his own size. No wonder Trump is the perfect avatar for it.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And that&#8217;s enough about that, and for today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Steve Stewart-Williams about an attempt to identify the one cognitive bias to rule them all: the confirmation bias; Political notes: How Trump claims victory yet again; how even Fox News noticed that not much was accomplished at that summit; And &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/2025\/08\/18\/the-ultimate-cognitive-bias-and-political-news\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[54,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","category-psychology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25547"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25547\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25600,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25547\/revisions\/25600"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}