{"id":27782,"date":"2026-05-05T17:57:03","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T00:57:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/?p=27782"},"modified":"2026-05-11T13:27:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T20:27:26","slug":"dealing-with-inevitable-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/2026\/05\/05\/dealing-with-inevitable-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Dealing with Inevitable Change"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>How to deal with long-term population decline;<\/li>\n<li>Astrology, sigh;<\/li>\n<li>A Christian phone network to block reality;<\/li>\n<li>Long essay about how Paul, not Jesus, founded Christianity, as many of us already understand;<\/li>\n<li>Short items about Republican censorship, lies, the tests for dementia, religious freedom, Trump&#8217;s ambitions, and suppressing data.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div align=\"center\">&#8211; &#8211; &#8211;<\/div>\n<p>Get a grip. Things aren&#8217;t about to turn around any time soon.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.vox.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/GettyImages-2159539505-02.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;crop=0%2C0%2C100%2C100&amp;w=750\" width=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Vox, Elliot Haspel, today<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/health\/487637\/falling-birth-rates-aging-america-demographic-reality\">Falling birth rates don\u2019t have to be a crisis<\/a>, subtitled &#8220;Here\u2019s how America can age gracefully.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixi lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg1\">Let\u2019s face it: Another baby boom isn\u2019t coming anytime soon.<\/p>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixi lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg1\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/data\/vsrr\/vsrr043.pdf\">latest round<\/a> of US birth data, released earlier this month by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, show the general fertility rate has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/04\/09\/us\/fertility-rates-decline.html\">dropped to a new record low<\/a> of 53.1 per 1,000 females between 15 and 44 \u2014 a 23 percent decrease since the most recent peak in 2007.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>A main concern is that soon there won&#8217;t be enough young people to support the aging population. And there&#8217;s the religious motivation to expand the tribe at all costs, never mind the consequences to the health of the planet and thus the long-term survival of the human race.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>No low-birth country in the world, from the most repressive misogynistic regimes to the most progressive governments offering generous leave and free childcare, has been able to put their society <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/data-insights\/which-countries-have-fertility-rates-above-or-below-the-replacement-level\">on a path back to \u201creplacement level\u201d fertility<\/a>. Establishing the enabling conditions so people can form the families they desire <a href=\"https:\/\/newrepublic.com\/article\/194471\/democrats-pronatalism-brith-rate-more-babies\">is a worthy goal<\/a> deserving attention, but the hour grows late and it\u2019s time to start talking seriously about how to adapt for an aging, low-birth society.<\/p>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixi lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg1\">We can\u2019t get any younger as a society but we can try to get wiser with age. With a little foresight, it is possible to prepare for a nation \u2014 and a world \u2014 with fewer children that\u2019s both functional and pleasant to live in.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Imagine identifying a problem and trying to solve it! A long-term problem! Beyond the bounds of current politics!<\/p>\n<p>The article goes on with three themes. First, considering how much older we&#8217;re going to get. Second, how to age gracefully. Third, how to rethink how we care for each other. This last may include rethinking how society works, and perhaps overcoming the conservative focus on nuclear and extended families. (Remember their condemnation of the claim that &#8220;It takes a village to raise a child,&#8221; as was actually true for hundreds of thousands of years.)<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Cultural adaptation will be needed alongside physical adaptation. Currently, Americans rely heavily on relatives to help with both childcare and eldercare. As kin networks shrink \u2014 the decline in births mean not only fewer kids and grandkids, but fewer aunts, uncles, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/family\/archive\/2023\/12\/cousin-relationships-fertility-rate\/676892\/\">cousins<\/a> \u2014 there will be fewer available to help. This will be especially difficult for those in the \u201c<a href=\"\/the-highlight\/480426\/adult-day-care-caregiving-baby-boomers-sandwich-generation\">sandwich generation<\/a>,\u201d who are taking care of children and aging parents simultaneously.<\/p>\n<div class=\"duet--article--article-body-component\">\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1agbrixi lg8ac51 lg8ac50 xkp0cg1\">Solving this means going against the grain of our increasingly isolated and atomized society and reviving a sense of community beyond our immediate families. Americans would do well to rediscover \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2021\/06\/15\/health\/alloparenting-multiple-caregivers-raising-kids-wellness\">alloparenting<\/a>,\u201d the idea that people other than parents can be actively involved in the raising of children.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Ending,<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The days of large families may not be coming back, but steps to adapt to a low-birth, high-age era not only could have broadly positive effects, they might, ironically, help stanch the birth rate decline. A society that is <a href=\"https:\/\/capita.org\/publication\/hospitable-by-design-toward-institutions-and-communities-that-welcome-families\/\">hospitable to parents and children<\/a>, helps individuals <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deseret.com\/opinion\/2025\/09\/18\/falling-birthrates-crisis-of-hope\/\">pursue meaning-filled lives<\/a>, and emphasizes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simonandschuster.com\/books\/When-You-Care\/Elissa-Strauss\/9781982169282\">ties of interdependence and care<\/a> for an aging population may well be one in which more people want to grow their families.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>(This piece doesn&#8217;t explore *why* people are having smaller families, but this is well-understood as a mark of progress, i.e. the reduction of infant mortality.)<\/p>\n<p>\\\\\\<\/p>\n<p>Not sure why this article is needed just now. The smart people figure this out by the age of 12 or so; yet astrology still appeals to people who think magically or just prefer reality to be simplified to just a few possible options.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/compote.slate.com\/images\/eec24c65-402d-4821-8b3f-655bfd4f99f3.jpeg?crop=1560%2C1040%2Cx0%2Cy0&amp;width=1280\" width=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Slate, Carlos Orsi, today<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/slate.com\/technology\/2026\/05\/astrology-science-problem-linda-goodman.html\">The Problem With Astrology<\/a>, subtitled &#8220;Most people know it\u2019s bogus. But dabbling in it anyway isn\u2019t as harmless as it may seem.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>The subject study here is about a famous astrologer who, after her daughter was found dead, was certain for astrological reasons that the daughter was still alive, and spent a fortune searching for her, until the end of her, the mother&#8217;s, life.<\/li>\n<li>But for the record, the writer&#8217;s summary of the case against.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote><p>Science clearly shows that astrology is bogus. The evidence goes from the astrophysical (the stars and planets are too far away, the constellations aren\u2019t where the astrologers\u2019 charts say, and there is no force in nature capable of transmitting the kind of effect astrology requires) to the statistical: For instance, if astrological tenets were true, we should, when studying large groups of people or whole populations, observe an excess of marriages between couples of \u201ccompatible\u201d astrological configurations and of divorces among \u201cincompatible\u201d ones. But it just doesn\u2019t happen. Additionally, hundreds of studies, as I found when researching my book, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0231221398\/?tag=slatmaga-20\"><em>What Science Says About Astrology<\/em><\/a>, have shown that astrologers are unable to predict events or personality traits any better than random people making educated guesses, or above mere chance levels.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\\\\\\<\/p>\n<p>In order to maintain the myth, you have to block reality. (File with: Get &#8217;em while they&#8217;re young; home schooling; religious schools.)<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!NOgn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cb33e3f-c128-4e27-85b8-a830d7c9a636_1774x998.png\" width=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, today<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.friendlyatheist.com\/p\/a-christian-phone-network-aims-to\">A Christian phone network aims to purify the internet by blocking reality<\/a>, subtitled &#8220;Radiant Mobile\u2019s \u201cJesus-centric\u201d network doesn\u2019t just ban adult content. It risks censoring news, education, and basic facts.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I don&#8217;t think I need to quote.<\/p>\n<p>\\\\<\/p>\n<p>Long essay about what even the most casual observers of Christianity have long realized: Christianity wasn&#8217;t founded by Jesus. It was founded by the zealous, intolerant Paul. Without whom&#8230;<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.newyorker.com\/photos\/69d55060f9e88e1b88f653ef\/master\/w_1920,c_limit\/r48365.jpg\" width=\"300\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>The New Yorker, Adam Gopnik, 13 April 2026<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/magazine\/2026\/04\/20\/paul-within-paganism-alexander-chantziantoniou-paula-fredriksen-stephen-l-young-book-review\">St. Paul Remade Human History. How Did He Do It?<\/a>, subtitled &#8220;New scholarship reconsiders the apostle who turned a Jewish sect into a world religion\u2014and whose legacy remains contested two millennia later.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Again I&#8217;m not going to quote. Outsiders see this as another example of the contingencies and chances and coincidences that led to Christianity becoming a dominant religion.<\/p>\n<p>\\\\<\/p>\n<p>Briefly noted.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/app\/uploads\/2026\/02\/GettyImages-2262694191.jpg\" width=\"250\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Salon, Sophia Tesfaye, today<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.salon.com\/2026\/05\/05\/trump-angers-right-wing-fans-with-censorship-campaign\/\">Trump angers right-wing fans with censorship campaign<\/a>, subtitled &#8220;As some members of MAGA media begin pushing back against Trump, there may be a limit to his campaign of retribution&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;For years, the MAGA faithful raged against the left\u2019s supposed creeping culture of cancellation. Now, the machinery of the federal government \u2014 using agencies like the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) \u2014 is being loosed on the president\u2019s enemies with a thoroughness and a vindictiveness that has begun to unsettle even his most loyal media allies.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Lying again.<\/li>\n<li><strong>JMG, today, from CNN<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joemygod.com\/2026\/05\/hegseth-lies-that-biden-sent-troops-to-polling-places\/\">Hegseth Lies That Biden Sent Troops To Polling Places<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>They&#8217;re not IQ tests. They&#8217;re tests for dementia. Cue Dunning-Kruger.<\/li>\n<li><strong>JMG, today<\/strong>, from <strong>Huffington Post<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joemygod.com\/2026\/05\/trump-i-take-cognitive-tests-when-i-get-called-moron\/\">Trump: I Take Cognitive Tests When I Get Called Moron<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>AlterNet, Thomas Kila, today<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alternet.org\/trump-cognitive-2676852538\/\">&#8216;Not a test of IQ&#8217;: Doctor who designed cognitive test punctures Trump\u2019s brags<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Lying again.<\/li>\n<li><strong>JMG, yesterday<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joemygod.com\/2026\/05\/trump-posts-fake-photo-of-traitor-barack-obama\/\">Trump Posts Fake Photo Of \u201cTraitor\u201d Barack Obama<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>These people are self-entitled dimwits, who defy the Constitution.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Right Wing Watch, Kyle Mantyla, yesterday<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.peoplefor.org\/rightwingwatch\/jenna-ellis-says-religious-freedom-only-applies-christians\">Jenna Ellis Says Religious Freedom Only Applies To Christians<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>He&#8217;s been saying this for years, and he keeps saying it.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NY Times, Thomas B. Edsall, today<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/05\/opinion\/trump-midterm-elections-2026.html\">\u2018When You Think of It, We Shouldn\u2019t Even Have an Election\u2019<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Somewhere else today I saw that Trump casually remarked he thinks he might stay in office another eight or nine years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>This is what authoritarian regimes do: suppress inconvenient data.<\/li>\n<li><strong>NY Times, today<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/05\/us\/politics\/fda-covid-vaccine-studies.html\">F.D.A. Blocked Publication of Research Finding Covid and Shingles Vaccines Were Safe<\/a>, subtitled &#8220;The agency\u2019s scientists and data contractors reviewed millions of patient records for studies that were pulled back before release.&#8221; (Via <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.joemygod.com\/2026\/05\/fda-blocks-publication-of-major-studies-supporting-safety-and-efficacy-of-shingles-and-covid-vaccines\/\">JMG<\/a><\/strong>.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How to deal with long-term population decline; Astrology, sigh; A Christian phone network to block reality; Long essay about how Paul, not Jesus, founded Christianity, as many of us already understand; Short items about Republican censorship, lies, the tests for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/2026\/05\/05\/dealing-with-inevitable-change\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[90,16,84],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-conservatives","category-culture","category-longtermism"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27782"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27782\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27833,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27782\/revisions\/27833"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.markrkelly.com\/Blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}