All of this is coming your way

Posted 19 Oct 2026, items compiled Wed 7 Oct 26, about the decline of reading, declining violence, the Gulf of America, the GOP as the party of white people, Hegseth’s war on “weirdo,’ how to save money by not buying anything, and my favorite R.E.M. song.

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Substantial piece today. From a book about the decline of reading.

Washington Post, opinion by James Marriott, today 7 Oct: Is society growing stupider? The clues are simple and repeated., subtitled “Shorter sentences and monotonous lyrics form a sign of something bigger.”

This is adapted from the writer’s book The New Dark Ages: The Death of Reading and the Dawn of the Post-Literate Society.

(But recall that effect identified by Pinker and others about the increase in IQs… what was that due to?) Flynn effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect

Once upon a time, the idea that the world was growing stupider was mostly confined to the realm of dyspeptic reactionary polemic. But nowadays, the idea is increasingly mainstream. The belief that smartphones are “rotting our brains” is a widely repeated cliché. Data seems to corroborate this feeling, too: Studies have shown declines in IQ over the past two decades, with the sharpest drops among age brackets that use their phones the most. Students themselves have reported since the 2010s that they have difficulty concentrating and remembering. One study found that even having a phone turned off on a table nearby may be enough to impair a student’s academic performance.

With examples of how films and songs are becoming simpler. We’ve heard this particular point before:

In a world of constant distraction, scriptwriters can no longer rely on audiences to pay attention. Executives at Netflix have reportedly demanded simpler scripts in which characters repeatedly announce what they are doing, so that scrolling viewers can keep track of what is going on.

And then contrasting bestselling books in 1960 to those of today. And movies. And the preference these days for series and franchises that repeat the same basic story over and over.

Concluding:

Still, trends toward simplification are worth worrying about. If culture loses its capacity to sustain complexity, readers, moviegoers and music enthusiasts may find themselves with increasingly inadequate understandings of the world. Self-help books and derivative films are fine in themselves, but there are aspects of human experience that cannot be described by lists, formulaic plots or declarative sentences. Not everything can be said simply, and understanding requires sustained concentration from readers, viewers or listeners. If they are distracted and unfocused, culture risks being transformed into a smartphone wasteland. Audiences may find themselves fated to endless repetition and pastiche, song by song, remake by remake.

As always, it’s worth wondering if there isn’t some underlying issue. No one read books before some 600 years ago, let alone watched movies. Perhaps the reason books that seem complex to us were popular 75 years ago were because there were fewer options then.

Stepping out even further. What functions do books, movies, songs provide? Considering just books, some writers (Pinker?) credit books, especially novels in the 17th and 18th century, with increasing empathy toward different kinds of people, which in turn inspired various civil rights movements. More broadly, fiction of any kind can be seen as a kind of rehearsal for events of life, from the marriage trials of Jane Austen to the supernatural threats of horror. Much to think about here.

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JMG, today 7 Oct: NYC Sees Record Low In Violent Crimes So Far In 2026

Once again, conservatives are terribly worried about problems that don’t exist. (The even more ridiculous issue of theirs is about transsexuals, a tiny, tiny fraction of the population.)

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JMG, today 7 Oct: Alabama Forces Schools To Use “Gulf Of America”

The world laughs. The moment Trump is gone, everyone will forget about this. And the people in Alabama will forget they did this.

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They say it right out loud.

Right Wing Watch, Kyle Mantyla, 6 Oct 2026: White Nationalist Jared Taylor Celebrates That The GOP Recognizes It Is ‘The Party For White People’

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Another example of neglecting real problems in favor of prioritizing their ideologies and prejudices.

Salon, Amanda Marcotte, today 7 Oct: Pete Hegseth’s holy war on “weirdos” targets most Americans, subtitled “Forget Iran — the defense secretary is focused on forcing his religion on everyone else”

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Latest example of how Trump is a dolt.

JMG, today 7 Oct: Trump Suggests Foreign Trade Will Soon Be Unneeded

If you don’t buy anything, you save all that money! But then, you don’t have anything.

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I have got to leave to find my way.

My favorite R.E.M. song.

…All of this is coming your way.

 

Posted in Culture, Decline, Music | Comments Off on All of this is coming your way

The Thin Skin of Reality

  • Trump in Time;
  • How AI could worsen a common cognitive trap;
  • Trump’s demand for Fox propaganda;
  • People with lower cognitive abilities are more likely to endorse Christian Nationalist claims;
  • Shaun Tan and the “thin skin of reality”;

Posted 17 Oct 2026, items collected 3 Oct

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Apparently there’s a new interview with Trump in Time Magazine, and they didn’t sanewash his prose.

Slate, Ian Prasad Philbrick, yesterday 2 Oct: The Man Is Not Well, subtitled “We just got an unfettered view into the mind of the world’s most powerful person. It’s alarming, to say the least.”

There’s a link here to the transcript, which I haven’t looked at yet.

Donald Trump talks constantly, which makes it a minor miracle that he can still surprise us. But he did Thursday after Time magazine published the full transcript of a 75-minute interview with the president. Conducted this week by correspondent Eric Cortellessa and top editor Sam Jacobs, the 11,000-word interview is in some ways an unremarkable artifact of the president’s usual tics: run-on sentences, bluster, insults, lies. But it also contains moments of confusion, incoherence, and paranoia that look like windows into Trump’s mental state. Far be it from us to diagnose him from afar, but suffice it to say that if any other president—or person—spoke the way Trump does, you’d probably worry about their psychological and perhaps medical well-being.

I’ll just list the subheadings in the Slate piece, as they are numbered.

  1. Trump immediately gets confused about where he was this week.
  2. When it comes to Iran, Trump is on another planet.
  3. He gave an incoherent answer about the future of Gaza.
  4. His paranoia is reaching mad-king proportions.
  5. Does Trump know that JFK and LBJ are dead?

And concluding,

The above is just a sampler platter from a long, rambling, grievance-fueled interview with the most powerful person in the world. Much of the ensuing coverage has focused on Trump losing his temper, ripping into the interviewers with lines like “You haven’t asked me one f***ing positive question.” (As the New York Times reports, the president has gotten more publicly profane as he has aged.) It’s easy to become numb to all this; Trump’s incoherence is matched by his ubiquity. But this is the brain responsible for making life-and-death decisions for the rest of us every day. Does anything from this transcript suggest it’s still up to that task?

His fans have to notice eventually, right?

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Science, and epistemology.

The Atlantic, Tania Lombrozo, today 3 Oct: AI Could Worsen a Common Cognitive Trap, subtitled “Almost everyone knows less than they think.”

The thesis in the subtitle is certainly true. Mostly we know where to find out what we need to know. Or, many people don’t care about knowing much of anything. What is the thesis here? How could AI make this situation any worse?

One of humanity’s most remarkable cultural achievements is the division of explanatory labor. When my daughter came down with a fever, I solved the problem by consulting a pediatrician, who shared a likely diagnosis of the flu. Unlike the doctor, I wasn’t able to tell my daughter much about the mechanism by which the flu leads to fever, or exactly why it was so important for her to keep drinking fluids. But the explanation I acquired—roughly “fever because flu”—was what was needed to treat her.

Society runs on this efficient type of information sharing. Just as coordinating specialized skills can streamline the fabrication of products—be it pins or cars or newspapers—coordinating specialized knowledge can facilitate the answering of questions. You can drive a car even if you don’t have the expertise to manufacture one yourself, and I benefited from the pediatrician’s explanation even though his understanding far exceeded my own.

And so on.

Humans’ sense of whom to ask for what is fine-tuned by evolution, culture, and personal experience. Even 3-to-5-year-olds are more likely to say that you should ask a doctor rather than a mechanic about fixing a broken arm, and a mechanic rather than a doctor about fixing a flat tire. As kids mature, they develop an even deeper understanding of expertise.

The author discusses how easily “a contagious sense of understanding” can appear from superficial descriptions of new phenomena. Then:

As information becomes more accessible through AI assistants, chatbots, and other technology, will these illusions of understanding become even more pronounced? Some early evidence suggests that the answer is yes. Several studies have now found that when people have information available to them through the internet, they overestimate how much they themselves know.

With examples. Well, OK. A problem that already exists might be made slightly worse by AI.

The kinds of errors that AI systems make are likely to change as AI develops, and human intuition about AI will probably evolve alongside these changes. As we expand our community of explainers beyond human experts to chatbots and other forms of AI, we create new opportunities for human understanding. But we also introduce an increased potential for illusion and error.

But these are enduring problems with human understanding, which is already very limited. Most people just “know” things without any kind of understanding.

The writer has a book on this topic: Why We Ask Why, subtitled “The Science of Explanation and the Human Drive to Understand”, that comes out Tuesday. Maybe.

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Again, about propaganda. Trump thinks he can create his own reality.

Media Matters, Matt Gertz, 1 Oct 2026: Donald Trump’s insatiable demand for Fox propaganda

President Donald Trump lashed out at Fox News on Wednesday with a lengthy online harangue that made little sense but demonstrates the network’s impossible task in satisfying the president’s demand for pure propaganda.

“Why does FoxNews always put Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Jessica Tarlov, and every Democrat on, saying bad things about the Republican Party and, of course, me?” Trump posted to his Truth Social account at 12:15 pm ET. “I actually think they get more airtime than Pro Republicans. This is why MAGA, and REAL Patriots, will never like Fox! They repeat a completely negative narrative, on and on it goes, and then we get a quick retort.”

Because he’s completely oblivious to how most Americans, and most of the rest of the world, outside his MAGA base, perceive him. Dunning-Kruger.

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Well *of course.* It’s just that the rest of us non-D-K folks are too polite to point this out.

JMG, today 3 Oct 2026: Study Finds That People With Lower Cognitive Abilities Are More Likely To Endorse Christian Nationalist Claims (from PsyPost)

A new study indicates that Americans with lower scores on a vocabulary test commonly used to measure cognitive ability are more likely to endorse Christian nationalist beliefs, even when accounting for their overall level of education. The findings suggest that the appeal of this political and religious ideology relates to underlying cognitive resources rather than just differences in schooling.

Religion is easy; science is hard. Fantasy is easy; reality is hard. This goes again to my notions about the limits of human cognition, and the appeal of tribalism, which humanity seems not able to escape.

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One more. Here’s a take on why the arts are so significant in understanding human nature, and the reality we cannot perceive.

The Guardian, Tim Byrne, yesterday 2 Oct: Shaun Tan: ‘We’re always only seeing a thin skin of reality’, subtitled “One of Australia’s most cherished and awarded picture book illustrators on what makes a good painting, the mechanics of life and the fine line between utopia and dystopia”

Not just in Australia. He’s won a Hugo — and an Oscar. I met Shaun Tan once, at the Worldcon in Melbourne, back in 1999, IIRC, and I have many of his books. I’m taken by that skin of reality quote. Let’s find some more.

“I have this theory that if a painting is really good a five-year-old can still get something out of it,” Tan says. “A good painting should hit you in an emotional way.” Often he will haul one of his kids into the studio to see their reaction to a piece he’s working on. “A bit happy and a bit creepy? Great, that’s what I wanted. You can go now.”

…

The conversation orbits too, back to the question of reality and the thin veil between worlds that exists for all of us. “I have the same problem as everybody else: it’s hard to penetrate the veneer of familiarity. We’re always only seeing a thin skin of reality, which is what an illustration is, just another thin skin. And that’s the world around us, it’s only paper thin.”

Tan’s enduring interest in the mechanics of life (at one point he envisioned becoming a geneticist) has led him to think of reality as “arbitrary. I was very interested, as a young person, in science and quantum physics. It satisfied my suspicion that this is one reality amongst many.”

And this supports my notion about different realms of reality that have different explanations and ‘meanings.’

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Posted in Art, Human Nature, Lunacy, Politics | Comments Off on The Thin Skin of Reality

What Extra Hour of Daylight?

Posted on 17 Oct 2026, items from Friday, 2 Oct: items about misunderstanding Daylight Saving Time, RFK Jr. and AI vs the “tyranny” of medical facts, Krugman on Trump vs the data, Trump’s anger re the media vs propaganda.

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They’re still on about changing the clocks. But they’re thinking about it wrong, of course.

JMG, today: Demented Man Rages About “Changing The Clocks”

The very name of their bill betrays their misunderstanding of how this all works. And the evidence he cites is backwards.
Continue reading →

Posted in conservatives, Lunacy, Science | Comments Off on What Extra Hour of Daylight?

The Progress of Christian Nationalism

Posted 17 Oct 2026, items compiled 1 Oct, about Trump campaigning on the taxpayer’s dime, how Project 2025 is succeeding better than Trump himself, how Hegseth is instilling his person religion into the military, and how Disney World solved a basic infrastructure problem.

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This is about those TV ads extolling American virtue (and Trump) that are being paid for with tax dollars.

Slate, Shirin Ali, today 1 Oct: Trump’s Latest Attempt to Cheat in the Midterms Faces Little Blowback
Continue reading →

Posted in Conservative Resistance, conservatives, progress, Religion | Comments Off on The Progress of Christian Nationalism

Conservatives and Empathy

  • Conservatives against empathy: excuses for selfishness;
  • Another piece about boarding houses, once banned, perhaps now more appropriate than ever;
  • Recalling a 50-year-old thesis about how human stupidity drags societies down;
  • Quotes from Thomas L. Friedman and Paul Krugman about Donald Trump;
  • Reading the Jared Huffman book.
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What does it say about conservatives that lately they’re against empathy?

The Atlantic, Elizabeth Bruenig, 27 Sep 2026: Why Empathy Is Now ‘Toxic,’ ‘Suicidal,’ and a ‘Sin’, subtitled “According to Gad Saad and his powerful acolytes, compassion is a recipe for ‘the collective suicide of the West.'”

A crusade against empathy is sweeping through the right. In sometimes apocalyptic terms, prominent conservatives are denouncing that feeble human capacity to understand the feelings of others. This is a trend I’ve written about before, but I’ve been intrigued by the way these figures have lately been adopting the language of the Canadian marketing professor Gad Saad and his influential book, Suicidal Empathy, released earlier this year. According to Saad, suicidal empathy is when otherwise positive impulses are “hijacked and used to make policy decisions that are best tackled via a sober analysis”—a phenomenon that will lead to nothing less than “the collective suicide of the West.”

The arguments seem to be excuses for why conservatives need not be concerned with the less-fortunate. A justification for selfishness.

But his reasoning seems more political than spiritual. Suicidal Empathy and books like it are aimed not at liberals, but at conservatives who may be struggling with a conflict between their politics and their conscience. Arguments about the harms of empathy help justify personal and political behavior that might otherwise seem wrong or feel bad, such as cutting food-stamp benefits for poor people or tearing immigrant mothers away from their children. By claiming that an excess of compassion is in fact a social blight, Saad’s book and others offer a theoretical framework for selfishness.

Is there a wider picture here? Apparently Saad tries.

By empathy, Saad means “a noble and evolutionarily selected virtue, a central feature of our humanity” which, he says, is correlated with kindness. What he means by suicidal is less clearly defined, but the overarching idea is that when people—typically woke liberals—advocate certain actions or policy positions out of empathy for other people, rather than based on Saad’s idea of objective reasoning, they undermine the societal values of security and cohesion.

Well that first bit is true enough; it’s what’s made us a social species able to cooperate with other tribes, and grow into a global civilization. But the writer here, Bruenig, sees the core motives of this movement.

To the degree that books such as Saad’s are meant to help conservatives resolve their internal conflicts and ignore their consciences, they are basically right-wing self-help guides. Stuckey’s Toxic Empathy seems especially targeted at conservative Christians who feel torn about subjects such as immigration and welfare. Stuckey is at pains to reassure her readers that any dissonance they might feel between their religious duties and political interests is a treacherous mirage generated by the left. The goal of “toxic empathy,” she says, is “to get us to suppress our opposition to a particular issue or point of view by playing upon our desire to be a good person.” By this account, liberals are emotionally exploiting feelings of guilt or shame in conservatives to persuade them to support left-wing goals.

A couple more bits:

And, like much self-help literature, the anti-empathy genre does not have to make sense to change minds. In Saad’s imagination, seemingly any personal or political cost, such as paying high taxes, or halting human encroachment on the habitat of endangered animals, is a form of individual or collective suicide.

… Suicidal Empathy is not really a theoretical text, but rather a guidebook for ignoring human suffering. Saad and his ideological colleagues may be helping conservatives resolve the tension between their political positions and their moral values, but only by compromising the religious principles at the heart of the Western civilization they purport to defend. And unlike the exhortation to love thy neighbor, this kind of thinking merely reinforces the idea that might makes right.

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We’ve seen this next subject recently. And coincidentally, we watched an episode of The Waltons (yes) in which John-Boy stays in a rooming house in the town near his university, and my partner asked, what kind of place is that? It looks nice. And I am reminded against the 1950s movie The Day the Earth Stood Still.

Vox, Rachel Cohen Booth, 28 Sep 2026: America’s empty bedrooms are up for grabs, subtitled “A 20th-century backlash banned a popular affordable housing option. It’s now seeing a revival.”

The authors of ABUNDANCE discussed this; review here.

Key takeaways

  • Cities spent much of the 20th century banning cheap rented rooms, and a 1974 Supreme Court ruling still lets them decide who counts as a “family” under zoning law. That’s now being challenged on two fronts.
  • A Kansas lawsuit asking the Supreme Court to revisit that precedent, and “Golden Girls” bills that have already passed in four states and are spreading.
  • The next few years will determine whether co-living stays a niche workaround or becomes a normal option, with more states set to take up the issue in 2027.

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Well, I wouldn’t call it human stupidity… exactly.

The New Republic, Ross Rosenfeld, today: Trump Personifies the Basic Laws of Human Stupidity, subtitled “How a 50-year-old treatise by an Italian economic historian makes sense of our utterly senseless moment”

Fifty years ago, in his most famous work, the prolific intellectual Carlo Cipolla argued that stupid people, as a group, are “much more powerful than the mafia, or the military industrial complex.”

Today, as we witness one of the dumbest wars in history unraveling in Iran, an inept health and human services secretary working to bring back measles and polio, a Republican Party wherein only 20 percent view the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol as a violent insurrection but 71 percent deny Joe Biden won the 2020 election, and an administration that refuses to properly regulate AI and crypto industries that threaten the economic well-being and safety of all, Cipolla’s contention is as apt now as when he first proposed it in The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity, in 1976—an era when the country, and indeed the world, was similarly roiled by sociopolitical rage and seemed on the brink of a catastrophe.

Is this really about human stupidity? My current thesis is about a range in human nature, from tribal to cosmopolitan, along which anyone can be stupid. A lot of people don’t think through the things they claim to believe, but instead accept by rote.

Still, this is another categorization that I will consider:

Cipolla divided people into four groups: the helpless, whose actions harm themselves but benefit others; the intelligent, whose actions benefit themselves and others; the bandits, who enrich themselves while harming others; and the stupid, whose actions harm others while producing no benefit to themselves.

But he was writing 50 years ago, before modern understanding of human nature emerged.

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Another trenchant quote. And wonder how so many people in the US support this guy, even against overwhelming evidence. Maybe they are really stupid.

NY Times, opinion by Thomas L. Friedman, yesterday: Trump Is Going Viral in the Worst Ways

President Trump is such an awful human being that just writing about him feels degrading. What president would denigrate his predecessor in front of China’s leader the way Trump mocked Joe Biden, now suffering from cancer, by pointing out that a framed picture of an autopen was hanging in the White House instead of Biden’s portrait?

Alas, though, when someone as morally warped as Trump — whose first secretary of state called him a “moron” — assumes this much unchecked power at the dawn of the Age of Artificial Intelligence, he can’t be ignored. Because right now Trump is leaving America exposed to dangerous viruses: digital, biological and diplomatic. Something bad is going to happen to us as a result. We and our children are going to pay for this, and not only at the gas pump.

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Another good take here.

Paul Krugman, yesterday: The Beclowning of Scott Bessent, subtitled “Another Trump enabler pays the price”

One iron law of current politics is that nobody who associates themselves with Donald Trump emerges with a shred of credibility.

Perhaps I should leave it at that. But I’ll quote on:

For some, that’s not a big loss — it’s not as if anyone respected Pete Hegseth even before he decided that the key to military success in an age of drones and AI was more testosterone. For others, however, the costs are real. I’m old enough to remember when Marco Rubio was widely considered a reasonable, thoughtful politician.

Right now, however, my candidate for the biggest loser is Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury.

And he goes on.

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I’m currently reading a book by Jared Huffman, the one member of Congress who has come out as a non-believer, and his take about Christian nationalism. No Prophets: The Fight to Save Democracy from Christian Nationalism. And he recounts the factions of Christian nationalism, and how Hegseth, among others, aligns with factions who would happily take down democracy in favor of Biblical literalism. And how you don’t hear much about this from main-stream media. Will write up the book when I finish.

Posted in Human Nature, Politics, Psychology, Religion | Comments Off on Conservatives and Empathy

A World We Can’t Trust

  • Bill McKibben on how we weren’t built for a world like this;
  • Locus server issues today;
  • More destruction: Trump scales back fuel emission standards, and removes supports for LGBTQ+ folks;
  • How Trump’s new AI-powered America.gov tells truths that counter Trump’s lies.
– – –

NY Times, Bill McKibben, today: I’m Exhausted. You’re Demoralized. We Weren’t Built for a World Like This.

Opening:

Psychologists have claimed that evolutionary biology leaves humans ill-equipped to deal with giant, slow-moving problems.

A point I’ve made repeatedly — or at least, the point that *most* people have trouble dealing with slow-moving problems, especially conservatives, who dismiss anything they see as long-term, meaning it won’t affect themselves in their lifetimes.

But suddenly we live in a moment when problems are speeding and piling up.

The climate crisis now consists of walls of water sweeping down Nepali rivers, obliterating entire towns in the blink of an eye, and wildfires that wipe out California neighborhoods in hours. And we’re confronting the birth and Bunyanesque growth of a new technology, artificial intelligence, that, according to some of its creators, is fairly likely to kill us all in the near future. We have to sit and listen as men worth unfathomable sums speculate about whether our species will survive their companies’ initial public offerings.

We definitely weren’t designed to cope with all this — our bodies, our nervous systems, our brains. Among all the other dangers these developments represent, they’re simply wearing us out. A lot of us would like politicians to offer, alongside their promises of affordability, even a glimpse of serenity.

Again, I’ve observed this for some time. The piece is mostly concerned about psychological consequences. The writer adds a comment at the end:

It increasingly feels to me like we just aren’t designed to cope with the pace and scale of events that keep crashing down on us — I mean, how are parents (or grandparents like me) supposed to cope with the notion that AI might wipe us all out, or that the El Niño now bearing down on us will take temperatures to unprecedented heights for our species? Along with affordability, might it be wise for some politician to start thinking up a few strategies for serenity?

Of course, “designed” only makes sense in terms of evolution. Humanity was “designed” by natural circumstances to survive in its ancestral environment, which was quite different from our modern environment.

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Distracted today by the hack of the Locus server, which has brought down sfadb.com, though apparently the digital wonk at Locus has managed to restore locusmag.com and this site.

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Let’s note a few things very briefly.

They’re either stupid, or malicious.

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Most interesting story today.

Slate, Ian Prasad Philbrick, today: Donald Trump’s Chatbot Says Joe Biden Won the 2020 Election, subtitled “We finally found someone in the Trump administration who’s willing to tell the president the truth. It’s a robot.”

Trump launched AI powered America.gov, which tells the truth about things like climate change and the 2020 election. Contrary to what Trump says. How will this work out?

And

JMG, today (from Washington Post): White House Launches Federal Services AI Chatbot, And It’s Already Changing Answers About Trump’s Lies

The predictable thing is that Trump will instruct the Chatbot to conform to his lies. How will he do that? Where will this lead? You already can’t trust AI.

Posted in Human Nature, Psychology, Technology | Comments Off on A World We Can’t Trust

Attending the Ballet

No post yesterday; we were busy attending a concert, with dinner afterwards.

Yesterday we attended Oscar, a ballet at Zellerbach Hall on the UC Berkeley campus, staged by The Australian Ballet, on tour, with the local Berkeley Symphony playing the score, with conductor Jonathan Lo. Choreography by Christopher Weldon; score by Joby Talbot, whom I’d never heard of before.

Here’s the page on the Cal Performances site, though it will likely disappear soon:

Sep 25–27, 2026
The Australian Ballet
Oscar© by Christopher Wheeldon
North American Premiere

It’s about Oscar Wilde, and is told in a semi-chronological, non-narrative fashion. Much of it depicts memories and fantasies of Wilde as he lies in prison, after conviction for indecency (i.e. homosexuality, which was illegal then). There are allusions to his works, especially The Picture of Dorian Gray.

I was most curious about the composer, whom I’d never heard of. Joby Talbot. He’s a British composer, of stage works and film scores (he did The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy back in 2005), and apparently quite prolific. It’s difficult to generalize about his style after hearing this one score just once, but the word I’ve settled on for this music is “colorful.” Eclectic. Bright and busy, with Philip Glass arpeggios there, John Williams bombast there, ominous horror movie thump-thumps there, harp and soprano glissandos there.

There are lots of Talbot samples on YouTube, and a few about this ballet, Oscar.

Here’s 10 minutes of the composer talking with the conductor, Jonathan Lo.

Here are some samples of the music, in rehearsal.

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I had made a reservation for dinner after the concert, but at intermission I saw an email from the restaurant saying they had cancelled my reservation. The restaurant was, in fact, Zino, the restaurant in the hotel where Locus staged their Locus Awards ceremony about four months ago. I phoned them; they said the restaurant was not opening that evening. No explanation. I’ve never experienced this before.

Posted in Music | Comments Off on Attending the Ballet

Dicey Claims

  • No, Noah’s Ark has not been found, again;
  • Evidence suggests Trump wanted the Kennedy Center to fall into ruin;
  • Lenders around the world don’t trust the US;
  • An example of how AI is making things worse, by claiming credit for mathematical results that cannot be easily confirmed;
  • Thoughts about mathematics, AI, and the limits of human cognition.
– – –

This kind of story pops up every few years, and it’s no truer now than it has ever been. The searchers have had 2000 years. But gullible people feel confirmed by it every time.

Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, today: Scientists have not “100% confirmed” the resting place of Noah’s Ark, subtitled “The Daily Mail turned a Christian company’s dubious claims about Turkey’s Durupınar Formation into a wildly misleading story”

(The Daily Mail, says Google, is “a middle-market tabloid-size conservative newspaper.”)

Did you know Noah’s Ark was real and scientists just confirmed it?

That’s what you might think if you just read the headline from a Daily Mail article which says Noah’s Ark’s resting place has been “100% confirmed” after 4,300 years.

And

You’ll be shocked to learn the actual story doesn’t back any of that up. But will anyone read the story? Probably not. It doesn’t help that the article is behind a paywall, so most people will only ever be able to see the headline.

They also won’t learn that the group behind this story got NBC’s Today to cover the exact same story last year.

Needless to say, the only thing that has been confirmed is how easily Christian propaganda can spread.

Mehta goes on to describe how stories like this get promoted.

This isn’t about faith, or the gullibility of Christians. It’s about basic literacy about how the world works, and how therefore the whole Noah’s Ark story is absurd on its foundations. It’s completely implausible. That all the animals in the world were saved on the Ark and then propagated to their current positions? People searching for the remains of Noah’s Ark are wasting their time.

Mehta concludes,

So who the hell said this was Noah’s Ark and that’s “100 percent confirmed”? The Daily Mail. Which was spurred to do so by a Christian group with a vested interest in proving Noah’s Ark was real—or at least making people think it’s a possibility.

Not scientists.

The Christians here wanted headlines so they could raise money, and they knew exactly which tabloid would run with it.

Noah’s Ark isn’t real. But Christian grifting is still alive and well.

Are they that cynical to be merely trying to make money? Perhaps. I think they’re just grasping at straws, anything to confirm their faith.

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Today’s paper.

NY Times, today, posted yesterday: Kennedy Center Shelved Repairs Now Cited for Closure, Whistle-Blowers Say, subtitled “In a letter to Congress, former employees say the center delayed a plan to address the leaks that its officials now cite as a serious safety risk.”

It’s almost as if they wanted a reason to demolish it.

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Continuing a theme.

The Atlantic, David Frum, today: Lenders Don’t Trust the United States Anymore, subtitled “Blame Trump for rising borrowing costs.”

All over the world, lenders are demanding higher interest rates. The global bond market is extracting higher yields from every borrower, starting with the biggest borrowers of all: national governments. But not every government is paying equally.

Trustworthy borrowers with solid finances and honest leadership pay less. Distrusted borrowers with disordered finances and corrupt leaders pay more. In times past, the United States would have headed that first list. Under President Trump, the United States has tumbled onto the second one.

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Here’s a rebuke to optimistic thinking about AI.

NY Times, guest essay by Zeynep Tufekci, yesterday in print, posted 22 Sep 26: This Is a Rare Arena in Which People Think A.I. Is Helping. It’s Making Things Worse.

This is about the AI proof of a certain mathematical conjecture.

It was one of the most famous challenges in the history of mathematics: the fluid dynamics problem known as Navier-Stokes, whose solution had proved so elusive that a million-dollar prize had been posted for the genius or geniuses who could finally crack it. Until the other day, that is, when OpenAI announced that one of its advanced models had found an answer at last. And it had taken only half a week.

The problems are, in a nutshell, is that OpenAI may have stolen the work of two human mathematicians working on the problem, and, that the claim of a solution is extremely difficult to verify.

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So beware claims like this.

Scientific American, 24 Sep 26: AI solves 79-year-old mathematical mystery, subtitled “Can a six-dimensional sphere be described using imaginary numbers? For decades, experts puzzled over this question. Now an AI has apparently answered it”

He’s done it again: mathematician Levent Alpöge, at Anthropic, has solved yet another open math problem using artificial intelligence. He had already tackled the Jacobian conjecture and found two new elliptic curves. Now add to these the 1947 Hopf problem. It asks whether a six-dimensional sphere can be completely described using complex numbers, which include the (seemingly impossible) square root of –1. According to Alpöge, the answer is yes, though the result remains unverified.

OK, maybe. We need to temper our enthusiasm. I suggested here just recently that these AI results illustrate the limitations of human cognition. Perhaps they do. The difficulty we have verifying AI results may just be another illustration. Or perhaps we’re being fooled, fooling ourselves. AI only knows what we know, in a sense.

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So maybe mathematics is the case study about the range of human cognition. At one extreme are those savants I’ve discussed. At the other are most folks who admit they’re “bad at math” or simply don’t like it, and have no intuitive understanding about sizes or ranges. But at the higher extreme are those problem humans can’t seem to figure out, but which may or may not are being solved by AI. Can AI reveal to humans a realm we cannot intuitively understand? That would be the optimistic possibility.

Posted in conservatives, Lunacy, Mathematics, Religion | Comments Off on Dicey Claims

There Is Only So Much Land

A similar broad theme today. This goes along with the item two days ago about J.D. Vance’s notion of “Heritage Americans” who, in his fascist, hierarchical mindset, are more deserving to run America than others.

Jerry Coyne, yesterday: The two-state delusion

Coyne, the author of Why Evolution Is True and Faith vs. Fact, both of which I’ve reviewed here, is Jewish and occasionally addresses this topic. I studiously ignore it, most of the time; I can’t admire either side. I do understand why Christians support Israel, but their reasons, based on religion, are part of the problem. This kind of thing can’t go on. The world is filling up, with more and more people who seem unable to get along with each other, i.e. live in a non-tribal manner.

Coyne points out that neither Israel nor Palestine wants a two-state solution. For similar reasons. I’m quoting someone he quotes.

One of the top reasons that Israelis and Palestinians alike say peaceful coexistence is not possible is disagreement over the land.

Some think there is not enough land to split. For example, one Palestinian woman said that “Palestine cannot be divided into two states.” Another said that “there cannot be two peoples when there is no room for two peoples.” Israelis express similar sentiments – saying, for example, that “Israel does not have enough territory to divide into two states” or that “there is no land to establish a Palestinian state.”

In both places, there are people who believe they are the only rightful owners of the land. One Jewish Israeli woman said, “This is our land alone,” and another stated that “the Holy Land belongs only to the Jewish people and was given to them by God.” Similarly, some Palestinians say Israel “stole our land” and that “the homeland belongs to the Palestinians.”

Look people. The world is filling up with humanity. There is only so much land. If rival tribes can’t figure out how to live in peace, then conflict and killings will continue, reducing the size of each tribe. Whereas tribes who learn to get along and cooperate — much of the rest of the world — will survive preferentially. That’s how it works.

The same principle applies to the “Heritage Americans” who try not to be offended by immigrants who aren’t white but in their hearts think they are the ones who should rule.

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Similarly.

Washington Post, opinion by Fareed Zakaria, today: Trump and Xi wrestle with the laws of nature

Note the subtitle: “Survival depends on adaptation. For the U.S. and China, that may include cooperation.”

As the summit this week demonstrated, Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are searching for ways to work together despite the growing rivalry between the two countries. They might take a look at a striking, somewhat unnoticed case of quiet cooperation involving American and Chinese technologies.

Recalling the Hugging Face AI attack.

To summarize: An American AI broke into an American technology company. To figure out what happened, the company ended up using a Chinese AI.

Many examples. Discussion of a book called Darwin’s Lock by Joshua Cooper Ramo. And acknowledgement of the common simplistic take about Darwinian evolution.

We tend to hear “survival of the fittest” and imagine nature as an endless struggle in which one creature devours another. But evolutionary fitness actually means the ability to adapt successfully to changing conditions. Nature is full not just of competition but of specialization, symbiosis and cooperation.

Adaptation. Not competition, but cooperation.

Zakaria concludes:

For 30 years, we made one mistake about globalization: We assumed trade would eradicate geopolitics. Now we risk making the opposite mistake — assuming geopolitics can simply erase the realities of a global, deeply interconnected economy.

Personal aside: yes, there was a time when many of us thought that trade among nations, even those who had once been at war, would overcome the tribal urge for dominance. For example, I bought a Japanese car in 1982, my first car, on the basis of car magazine reviews, and my thoughts that trade with Japan was a positive thing, a way to advance international cooperation. My father thought it was a bad idea, only for geopolitical reasons. As with much else in life, international trade has worked fine (no one squints disapprovingly at anyone owning a Japanese or German car), but it’s more complicated than that. Now I own a German car. The international economy remains. The geopolitics hasn’t gone away.

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Back to the theme about America’s abdication of its leadership in the world, as in yesterday’s post.

Robert Reich, today: What to plan for in the U.S. if you’re a foreign leader?, subtitled “Here’s what I’m hearing”

It’s long been thought, by many Americans and many other nations, that Trump and his administration is a passing fad, a temporary lapse of American sanity, and once he goes away all his damage could be reversed. But the longer he goes on, the more he destroys, physically and intellectually, the harder it will be to recover. We’ve already seen signs that America’s reputation in the world is damaged, for the long term. (MAGA doesn’t care about the world.)

Reich:

I spent much of this week talking with foreign officials who are in the U.S. for United Nations meetings. I was curious to know how they’re strategizing about the United States in the future — assuming Democrats do well in the midterm elections and Trump becomes a lame-duck president. (None of my nine sources were heads of state; my stature doesn’t reach that high. But they were high enough to give me some useful insights.)

Then what he’s learned. I’ll condense. Well, no I won’t.

1. Most are thinking past Trump. They believe his influence is already waning, and his bellicose rantings show that he knows it. He’s still dangerous, they say, but not nearly as dangerous as he was, and he’s no longer capable of plunging the world into war. Every one of them told me he’s deeply unpopular in their countries.

2. They’re thinking in a timeframe of five to 10 years. They see Trump as a temporary phenomenon and assume the United States will “return to its senses.”

3. But — and here’s the part that concerned me — they’re unsure they can ever again rely on the United States for world leadership. Several pointed out that the fact Americans elected Trump for a second time reveals, in the words of one of them, “there’s something troublesome about your nation that transcends Trump.”

4. Even post-Trump, they see the United States as unstable and unpredictable. They don’t believe the country will fall into civil war, but they worry that policymaking will cycle between extremes because, in the words of another, “your extreme inequality will make it difficult to achieve any longer-term consensus.”

5. As a result, they’re looking ahead to a world where another nation, or group of nations, will take leadership on global issues that need to be addressed, such as climate change, AI, migration, widening inequalities, Putin’s aggression, and disease prevention.

6. Which nation or group? Another official put it to me this way: “We don’t trust China, the U.N. doesn’t work because of its security council, but the EU isn’t strong enough yet. Several of us are hoping that over the next decade the EU will be joined by Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, and that this new EU — really, a World Union — will devise a structure that enables it to work collaboratively and forcefully for the good of the world.”

EU becomes a World Union? Cool!

Frankly, I don’t care if the US leads the world, or if some other nations or group of nations does, as long as they can address big picture problems, and advance human well-being. (I am not a ‘patriot’ in the sense that I believe my country is better than all the others just because I… live here. I wasn’t born here.) The existential problems require a cooperative, worldwide response. And America has given up.

Posted in Conservative Resistance, conservatives, Politics, Tribalism | Comments Off on There Is Only So Much Land

Abdication

  • Trump abdicates as leader of the free world;
  • Or maybe of the entire world, in favor of China;
  • How failure to address existential threats is costing America and the world;
  • Brief items: A nation should be run like a household, not a business; a new way to disappear ICE detainees; some want martial declared for the midterms; a Christian evangelist won’t explain why he needs so much money; Jim Palmer on existential realities we can’t escape.
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History runs in cycles, sorta. The US has gone through isolationist periods before. Though this time it may be part of general reaction against modernity and complexity.

Salon, Heather Digby Parton, today: Donald Trump abdicates as leader of the free world, subtitled “The president’s UN address showed he has ceded that position to Canada’s Mark Carney”
Continue reading →

Posted in Human Nature, Politics | Comments Off on Abdication