Links and Comments: How Science Really Works; How Pandemics Can Trigger Cultural Renewal; Newton’s work during a Plague Year

(updated 18jul20)

Slate, Shannon Palus: How Public Health Experts Feel About Being Wrong. Subtitle: “That they change their advice is actually why we should trust them.”

The subtitle is precisely right. Experts, scientists, anyone with intellectual integrity change their minds when evidence warrants it. Especially in novel situations where the evidence trickles in slowly, and differently from previous experiences.

Is Peter Navarro a dimwit, or a conniving Trump cultist? The former is a possibility; people who don’t understand science, who don’t understand that scientific conclusions are tentative and change as the evidence comes in (as in police detective work), who think that every question has a definite, unchanging answer (as in religion), may truly think that Fauci has “made mistakes.” No. His advice was the best possible at the time, and new evidence and circumstances caused him to revise his advice. This CNN piece,

Trump team’s circular firing squad goes after Fauci

patiently explains how every point Navarro made was cherry-picking or taken out of context, especially in ignoring the conditions Fauci put on his advice in the first place.

This should not be difficult to understand.

Yet some people refuse to understand this, apparently. Or — is this is a calculated attack to discredit Fauci in the eyes of the Trump cultists, who will believe anything they are told from their leader and his minions, to discredit a decades-renowned scientist in order to open up the economy in a desperate bid to hope the virus goes away and Trump can still win re-election…?

A similar feat of magical thinking was on display with White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany’s remark White House press secretary: ‘The science should not stand in the way of’ schools fully reopening. Ironically, this NBC piece’s subtitle is about her accusing the media of bias. Many news outlets characterized her remarks as saying science should be ignored in the face of reopening school; in fact she meant (her wording was poor) that the science does actually support reopening the schools. No it doesn’t; you can trust her; she’s motivated by Trump’s wanting the reopen the schools, and the economy, at any cost to human lives.

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As for a silver lining… here’s a long essay by Lawrence Wright, author of books like God Save Texas: A Journey into the Soul of the Lone Star State and Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood, and the Prison of Belief, as well a novel about a global pandemic, The End of October, published in April but written long before Covid19 was on the horizon.

The New Yorker: How Pandemics Wreak Havoc—and Open Minds, subtitled, “The plague marked the end of the Middle Ages and the start of a great cultural renewal. Could the coronavirus, for all its destruction, offer a similar opportunity for radical change?”

It’s a long article and I haven’t read it all. His point is that catastrophes like a global pandemic can jolt society into reforms they otherwise would not otherwise have made. But here’s a key point, from a conversation between the author and the retired John Hopkins University scientist Gianna Pomata, an Italian.

In an e-mail, she condemned those who blithely ignored scientific advice, writing, “What I see right now in the United States is that the pandemic has not led to new creative thinking but, on the contrary, has strengthened all the worst, most stereotypical, and irrational ways of thinking. I’m very sorry for the state of your country, which seems to be in the grip of a horrible attack of unreason.” She continued, “I’m sorry because I love it, and have received so much from it.”

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I saw another essay whose link I now cannot find, about the aftermath of the Black Plague, about how London made various reforms, such as a sewer system, to reduce the spread of disease, though such measures were opposed by libertarians. [Update 20jul20: I found the essay and link, and discuss it in the next post.]

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And one more. Revisiting Carl Sagan’s 1980 book (and TV series) Cosmos recently, I came across this passage, about Isaac Newton. (Page 68 of the book.)

In 1666, at the age of twenty-three, Newton was an undergraduate at Cambridge University when an outbreak of plague forced him to spend a year in idleness in the isolated village of Woolsthorpe, where he had been born. He occupied himself by inventing the differential and integral calculus, making fundamental discoveries on the nature of light and laying the foundation for the theory of universal gravitation. The only other year like it in the history of physics was Einstein’s “Miracle Year” of 1905.

A year.

This was the same plague that Daniel Defoe documented in his book A Journal of the Plague Year (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Journal_of_the_Plague_Year).

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Skiffy Flix: Things to Come

This is an ambitious film from 1936, based on a treatment by H.G. Wells depicting future history from 1950 to 2036. Again, Wikipedia has a fairly detailed plot at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Things_to_Come.

I’ve read that for decades after, Things to Come was considered the most serious, big-ideas science fiction film of all time. (Until 2001, maybe.) It has some striking ideas and images, but it hasn’t aged well.

This film breaks into roughly three parts.

  • In 1940, war breaks out. We witness events from a generic city called “Everytown,” beginning as the main character, the forceful John Cabal (played by Raymond Massey), and his friends discuss the inevitability of war and its impact on technological progress. Then sirens sound and the war begins; we see the center of town as people run, cars crash, aircraft attack, tanks roll through the central square. Bombastic music. Buildings collapse, burn. Then shots of ships at sea, futuristic tanks, planes over the coast. Title cards display the years as war goes on… 1945, 1960. Finally it’s over in 1966, but then a pestilence spreads; no one who catches it survives.
  • Everytown is now ruins, occupied by poor villages. The town is now run by a warlord, who wears furs and has a chatty wife. Despite common thought that technology is over, one day a plane flies over and lands nearby. Its pilot is John Cabal, wearing an oddly huge helmet, and he explains that the engineers and mechanics of the Mediterranean area have united into an organization called “wings over the world,” and are rebuilding civilization. The warlord arrests Cabal and tosses him in a dungeon. Sample lines from the warlord: “Who wants books that muddle our thoughts anymore?” and “Why was all this science ever allowed? What was it ever let begin, science? The enemy of everything that is natural in life.” But huge flying-wing airplanes appear in the sky and overwhelm the warlord’s ancient planes, then drop sleeping gas over the villagers. Cabal remarks, about the warlord, “Dead and his world dead with him…” “Now for the rules of the airmen, and a new life for mankind.”
  • Then there’s a transitional montage of the rebuilding of society, via huge technology. Mountains are blown up; enormous machines grind away; men pass through factories on gliding platforms. More music.
  • Then we see the result, in 2036: the area where Everytown lay is now grassland and low hills, while the city has been rebuilt inside a huge nearby cave! It’s an enormous spacious well-lit cavern, rather like the interior of a huge shopping mall or Las Vegas hotel, where all the residents wear white robes with enormous shoulder pads. The story immediately becomes one about progress, as an artist (played by Cedric Hardwicke) wants to rebel, to stop progress before it’s too late! The head of the ruling council, Oswald Cabal (again played by Raymond Massey), plans to launch the first mission to the moon via an enormous “space gun.” After some debate about who to send, the space gun is prepared, and launches despite converging mobs. Looking into the starry sky, Cabal speechifies about progress and knowledge, concluding with “All the universe or nothing? Which shall it be, Passworthy? Which shall it be? ..”

The film is an admirable attempt to imagine a disastrous, and then expansive future; it recalls a quote from Wells: “Civilization is in a race between education and catastrophe.” Comments:

  • The acting style is broad and the music, by Arthur Bliss, bombastic and grating. The music was popular at the time and released separately on recordings, but you don’t hear it much anymore, all these decades later.
  • The film equates progress with enormous technology, which was appropriate for a time when Empire State Buildings and Hoover Dams were being built, but isn’t so true anymore.
  • I don’t find the idea of building utopia, so to speak, in an underground cavern, plausible, and wonder it was thought so. (Somewhat similarly, in the 1950s and ‘60s and ‘70s there were science fiction stories and movies about building cities under the sea, another idea that’s rather faded away.)
  • On the other hand, the production design is striking, especially of the underground Everytown. This is another case where a feature on the DVD, about Vincent Korda and others, is as interesting as the film itself.
  • There are some cute scenes in the final section with a little girl and her grandfather, reclining on glass furniture and watching a big screen showing Manhattan as it used to be, as grandpa explains about the age of windows, when they were diseased and had colds, not like today.
  • One of the DVD features points out that the “space gun” is implausible—its passengers would quickly turn to raspberry jam—but Wells, who had considerable influence and involvement with the making of the film, wanted the resemblance of the vehicle to go to the moon with the cannons fired earlier when war broke out.
  • The debate in the final sequence is rather insipid; what is the artist complaining about, exactly? Religious opposite would have been more plausible (as was a theme in written SF of the ‘40s and ‘50s), but there’s no mention of religion here. At the same time, the contrast from the middle section of the film, of barbarity, to the final section, of gleaming building and expansion into space, is sharp, and moving.

I grant that standards and styles have changed over time, which accounts for much of my reaction. And I’m aware that similar stylistic complaints would be made about 2001: A Space Odyssey, especially about its slow pacing compared to virtually all modern cinema. So I’ll grant Things to Come its status and try to understand it in its context.

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Skiffy Flix: King Kong

This very famous and popular film, from 1933, isn’t exactly science fiction, but somewhat adjacent to SF: a variation of the “lost world” story popular in the 19th and early 20th centuries, when there were still unexplored areas of the world, and it was possible to believe that those areas held bizarre creatures from prehistoric times that had been driven away from civilization, or simply hadn’t been driven to extinction yet. Arthur Conan Doyle’s 1912 novel THE LOST WORLD is the titular example; elements of the idea play a key role in the recent Pixar animated film Up.

So King Kong plays off this theme, by finding an obscure island containing an enormous gorilla-like creature, and a colony of primitive humans walled off from the creature at one end of the island.

Again, no need to recount the plot of such a famous film; it’s here on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Kong_(1933_film).

I watched this again, after many years, out of a sense of duty to revisit all the famous 1930s and 1940s horror and pre-SF films, not because I have any special affection for it. I’ve always found it implausible at its core, the way the creature is captured and somehow shackled aboard a ship for its return to New York, an event that is elided. (We never see the crewmen shackle the creature or get the beast to their ship on a, what, dinghy? How would that work?)

The whole premise is questionable as well. Why would such an enormous creature be found on this small Skull Island? Large mammals don’t live on small islands; ecology, and evolution. And how is there just one of them? That there’s just one plays to the notion of the individual monster, which just doesn’t exist in real life. (Science fiction indulges in this conceit at times; even Star Trek played with the notion of singular, unique creatures somehow existing and threatening the Enterprise, with out any justification for how they came to exist, or how a single creature survived the extinction of its race.)

Yes, yes, they’re not science fiction – as I said – they’re fantasy/horror stories about things people fear. And think they can subdue, to their misery; the recurrent theme of human hubris.

Still, I took notes as I watched and will record a few of them here.

  • The premise involves a film producer who knows about the secret island and is leaving in the morning to make a film there. But he knows the public wants a love interest. So, on the night before his ship sails, he goes into New York to find a girl. He finds a girl at a fruit stand and, within an hour or so, convinces her to come overseas with him and star in a film. Wow! An example, it seems, of how easily women were manipulated by men, or were thought to be, at the time.
  • Also, everyone smokes.
  • It’s fascinating seeing how the director, Carl Denham, does film tests aboard the ship, literally cranking the camera by hand as his girl star acts, miming screaming.
  • The natives are your standard Hollywood ooga-booga natives who sacrifice young women to Kong, to be his “bride.” Because of course they do.
  • The bulk of the film is set on the island, as the natives capture our girl, Ann Darrow (played by Fay Wray), and offer her to Kong, who carries her away. A bunch of the boat crew pursue, and there are endless scenes of tramping through the jungle, encountering various dinosaurs, most of them getting killed.
  • For its time, it’s worth recognizing, this was a masterpiece of special effects – stop-motion animation, done by Willis O’Brien, which consists of models of Kong and dinosaurs physically manipulated, very slightly, for each frame to frame shot, and then combined against a realistic background. There’s a lot of this, with dinosaurs, snakes, pterodactyls…
  • Still, the bulk of this part of the film is dominated by Fay Wray screaming, over and over and over.
  • The last act of the film occurs after Kong has been (somehow) put aboard the ship and returned to New York. Now a theater marquee advertises Kong, and a huge, very-well dressed, audience files in to see. The audience oohs and ahs. But then photographers are brought in…and their flashbulbs drive Kong into a frenzy. He breaks free, escapes into the alley, and then into the city. Kong smashes trains, climbs a skyscraper and reaches into an apartment and pulls a woman out of her bed—and drops her to the street below. Undoubtedly scary, dramatic fare for audiences of 1933.
  • And of course the very very famous final scenes show Kong climbing the Empire State Building, with Fay Wray in his hand. We understand that, like the Frankenstein monster, Kong isn’t evil, he’s a victim; he’s gentle and kind, to Fay Wray, with whom he is somehow in love. But the biplanes are called out, and attack him from the air, and drive him down. In a genuinely moving and emotional ending, Kong fades, growing weaker from the planes’ attacks, and slips, and falls, into the streets below.
  • And in the famous final line, someone in the street below (where we see Kong’s bulk lying there) says, it wasn’t the airplanes, it was beauty that killed the beast.

I’ve not seen any of the remakes.

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Skiffy Flix: Son of Frankenstein

This third Frankenstein film, Son of Frankenstein, from 1939 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Son_of_Frankenstein), again features Boris Karloff as the monster. I saw this film decades ago, likely in the 1990s when there was a fine, independent video rental store around the corner from my house in Granada Hills (now of course long gone). It was from that video rental store that I watched many of the 1950s SF movies I am now about to watch again, as well as where I discovered the films of Preston Sturges, especially The Lady Eve.

The various popular horror films of the 1930s, about Frankenstein and Dracula and the Wolf Man, were the earliest franchises. Sequels were made as long as they kept making money. Yet however serious the originals versions were, the sequels became invariably crude and trivial; thus various mash-ups were created to drum up kiddie interest, at least, like Frankenstein Meets the Wolf Man (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankenstein_Meets_the_Wolf_Man), which made no sense.

I recently bought DVD sets of all the Frankenstein and Wolf Man films, but don’t intend to watch any of the later ones. (The boxed sets were bargains.)

What I recall especially from seeing Son of Frankenstein was a particular feature of the film, distinct from the earlier two films. That is: the set design. Especially the interior of the Frankenstein mansion. The phrase I recall to describe it is “German Expressionism,” meaning highly stylized and perhaps symbolic. In Son of Frankenstein, the interior of the mansion is enormous, and the angles are odd, the lighting to match. (Wikipedia has this, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Expressionism, which mentions many familiar examples, but not this film.) The odd thing is, I’m not sure how I was alerted to this feature, or where I heard the term. The videotape box? Some reference work I have that I haven’t glanced at in years? The Wikipedia entry for the film doesn’t use the term, nor is there a DVD feature about it or a mention on the DVD case.

The plot, very roughly is this: the son of the original Henry Frankenstein, Baron Wolf von Frankenstein, played by Basil Rathbone (who was famous in later years as playing Sherlock Holmes in many films), returns to his father’s village, to reclaim his estate and redeem his father’s reputation. The villagers are hostile; they remember, perhaps in exaggerated detail, the depredations wrought by the monster. Taking occupation of the house, he meets Ygor, a demented sidekick (the first film had the hunchback Fritz), who reveals both Frankenstein’s father’s crypt, and—the body of the monster! The Baron decides to revive the monster as a way to redeem his father’s original vision. (Ygor is played by Bela Lugosi, also in The Wolf Man, as if Hollywood figured he had to be part of every high-profile horror film.)

Things go wrong; the revived monster responds only to Ygor’s commands. Ygor has him murder several townspeople who were jurors at Ygor’s trial for grave-robbing. The Baron shoots Ygor; in revenge the monster abducts the Baron’s son but cannot bring itself to kill him; the Baron managed to push the monster over into a Sulphur pit under the lab. (Here again the monster is shown to be kind and generous at heart; it’s the people who fear him and overreact.) The Baron departs, leaving the mansion to cheering villagers.

Basil Rathbone is a much better actor than was Colin Clive as the senior Frankenstein, but either he or the director make an odd choice about half way through this film, as Rathbone goes from playing the character sympathetically, to seeming half-demented once he’s revived the monster, with an obsequious little sneer on his face.

I may have seen the 1974 spoof Young Frankenstein before I saw, in the 1990s, any of the original films. It’s worth noting that that spoof film uses a couple essential elements of this third original film: the character Ygor, and the character or a local police inspector with a mechanical arm. A Wiki check on Young Frankenstein indicates a basis on the first four or five original films, not just the first three…so perhaps I’ll check out one or two more later Frankenstein films, if only to better appreciate Young F when I revisit it.

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Links and Comments: Psychology Trumps All?

Two items came up today on very similar topics. They both play to my interest in the psychological underpinnings of belief and apprehension of the world. As I’ve alluded, this is one of my major themes (as on my Principles page), and perhaps I haven’t emphasized how recent a development this is. None of this was generally realized two decades ago. Yes, I knew about logical and rhetorical fallacies from way back (e.g. http://www.markrkelly.com/Blog/2013/09/12/the-one-book-id-have-every-college-student-read/), and there was a taste of psychological issues in Shermer’s 1997 book, but it wasn’t until Jesse Bering’s 2011 book, then especially the 2011 and 2013 books by David McRaney, and then Jonathan Haidt’s foundational 2012 book (though I didn’t read it until 2015), that I began to appreciate how forcefully human psychology overrides logic and evidence (in favor of group cohesion, alliance with friends and family, mostly). If physics explains chemistry, and chemistry explains biology, well… psychology overrides them all, in terms of what humans think they know about the world.

In the latest issue of The Week (a terrific magazine that gathers news and opinions from across the political spectrum; its website is only OK), dated July 10/July 17, the “editor’s letter” on the table of contents, focuses on a review in the issue of a book by Maria Konnikova (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Konnikova), called THE BIGGEST BLUFF: HOW I LEARNED TO PAY ATTENTION, MASTER MYSELF, AND WIN. She applies her psychological understanding, and uses her discipline, to learn to play expert poker. Here’s the key part of the editorial intro:

One of the great paradoxes of psychology—maybe the great one—is that while being wrong should make us question our assumptions, it regularly has the opposite effect. Presented with signs that we have made a mistake, we very often choose to discard the evidence and dig in on our prior beliefs. So it is that once they’d committed to reopening, governors across the country chose to ignore every early signal that they were wrong and push onward into the cresting wave of a resurgent epidemic. And when what is involved are questions not of just policies but also of values, people retreat even further into their certainties.

There’s obviously more to the US situation than this – because virtually every other country on the planet (except for those led by similar to Trump authoritarian leaders, Brazil and Russia), and human psychology is the same everywhere – have done better at managing the pandemic than the US has.

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Next, a big substantial article in The Atlantic, The Role of Cognitive Dissonance in the Pandemic; Subtitled, “The minute we make any decision—I think COVID-19 is serious; no, I’m sure it is a hoax—we begin to justify the wisdom of our choice and find reasons to dismiss the alternative.”

This takes the idea of motivated reasoning — where one finds reasons to dismiss evidence against beliefs one has made on emotional grounds – up a notch, to the idea of cognitive dissonance. How humans are able to make sense, and accept, views that contradict each other. Every scientist, like Francis Collins, who claims religious faith while doing science is doing this.

Opening of the article:

Members of Heaven’s Gate, a religious cult, believed that as the Hale-Bopp comet passed by Earth in 1997, a spaceship would be traveling in its wake—ready to take true believers aboard. Several members of the group bought an expensive, high-powered telescope so that they might get a clearer view of the comet. They quickly brought it back and asked for a refund. When the manager asked why, they complained that the telescope was defective, that it didn’t show the spaceship following the comet. A short time later, believing that they would be rescued once they had shed their “earthly containers” (their bodies), all 39 members killed themselves.

Heaven’s Gate followers had a tragically misguided conviction, but it is an example, albeit extreme, of cognitive dissonance, the motivational mechanism that underlies the reluctance to admit mistakes or accept scientific findings—even when those findings can save our lives. This dynamic is playing out during the pandemic among the many people who refuse to wear masks or practice social distancing. Human beings are deeply unwilling to change their minds. And when the facts clash with their preexisting convictions, some people would sooner jeopardize their health and everyone else’s than accept new information or admit to being wrong.

They discuss how Leon Festinger’s notion of “cognitive dissonance” in 1950 “inspired more than 3,000 experiments that have transformed psychologists’ understanding of how the human mind works.” (Which is how psychology has become a science, far surpassing the intuitive, largely-unverified by experiement, notions of Freud and Jung.)

The essay goes on with examples of reactions to the pandemic. With a final note about how scientists change their minds, because evidence. That’s how science works.

This nasty, mysterious virus will require us all to change our minds as scientists learn more, and we may have to give up some practices and beliefs about it that we now feel sure of. The alternative will be to double down, ignore the error, and wait, as Trump is waiting, for the “miracle” of the virus disappearing.

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Skiffy Flix: The Wolf Man

As I’ve said, the basis for these posts, and for my taking the time to watch these rather primitive films from the dawn of the movie era, is to revisit the predecessors of the earliest science fiction films; I have no particular interest in horror films per se. Except for Metropolis (in 1927) and Things to Come (in 1936), there were no true science fiction films, in the modern sense, until 1950. (And my interest in those is how they presumed misunderstandings of how the world, the universe, actually works.) Rather, the 1930s and 1940s were dominated by horror films, beginning with the iconic films about Dracula and Frankenstein.

So yes it’s mostly because the subjects of these films have become iconic. No matter how obscure the original novels were, the films made in the first and second decades of the film industry, about Frankenstein and Dracula and the Wolf Man, have rooted themselves into popular culture. That’s why we see new versions of them every decade or so.

So here we are with The Wolf Man, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wolf_Man_(1941_film), the 1941 film starring Lon Chaney Jr., along with Claude Rains and Ralph Bellamy.

I’d never seen it before. What I knew about was mostly from comments by Harlan Ellison – the famous, firebrand short story and TV writer and anthologist, profoundly influential in the 1960s and 1970s, and who died in 2018 – who spoke of Lon Chaney Jr., and Bela Lugosi, in their famous roles, as if they were some kind of gods. Ellison grew up in the 1940s, and these movies and performances were imprinted on him, in a way I suppose like Star Trek and 2001 imprinted on me, in both cases in our teenage years. He would speak of those actors, those movies, in his appearances, in his essays.

So then, Lon Chaney, Jr.? He’s big, he’s tall, and the word that came to mind to describe him as I watched the beginning of this movie was galoot. Right at home in one of those old American TV series set in the south, e.g. Mayberry R.F.D. Big and dumb and with a dopey grin. The plot of the movie is there on Wikipedia, but let me observe, again, how the mansions these people live in, in these early 1930s and ‘40s films, are improbably large and luxurious. Talbot Castle is in Wales, supposedly, and we see the same kind of charming village as we saw in some of the Frankenstein films. So Larry Talbot returns to his father’s estate in Wales, is attracted to a local shopworker, Gwen. Nearby is a camp of gypsies. What is the premise here? That werewolves, men who transform into wolves “at certain times of the year,” turn others into werewolves by biting them [much like vampires].

And so Larry Talbot (Chaney) is bitten by one of the gypsies (played by Bela Lugosi, because of course), and becomes a werewolf himself.

And the fascination, even redemption, of this film, compared to the other early horror films, is that Talbot is horrified by this transformation and how it affects those around him. Chaney, the galoot, becomes a sympathetic, tragic character; he understands what’s happening to him and tries to overcome it. He seems to die at the end – in an ironic scene that mirrors an earlier scene – and yet Chaney came back to play the Wolf Man in a number of sequels.

The DVD I watched has a long feature about the life of Lon Chaney, Jr.; a bit character, in the shadow of his father’s reputation, until he stuck the audition for this movie, and played the character in all the sequels, and did well in many other films through the 1950s. Sometimes the stories of these actors are just as interesting as the movies they played in.

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Links and Comments: Coronavirus, Climate Change, Risk Assessment

(updated 9jul20, 11jul20)

Salon, Amanda Marcotte: Climate-change denial and the coronavirus “hoax” are the same conspiracy theory.

The worldwide conspiracy is vast — so vast that most of the world’s scientists, journalists and political leaders are in on it. Somehow, in all this time, not a single one of the hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of conspirators has grown a conscience and decided to blow the whistle on the conspiracy. Their goal? To ruin everything that right-wing America holds dear: the nuclear family, NFL football, needlessly enormous vehicles, the specials menu at Hooters.

To accomplish this dastardly goal, the conspiracy will fabricate a worldwide threat. They will falsify the data and use the power of institutions like governments and universities and scientific journals to perpetuate this hoax, tricking billions of people into believing this threat is real and needs a drastic response. The only people in the world who see through the hoax are right-wing Americans, of course, who know what lengths the “socialist left” will go to in order to destroy Mom and apple pie.

And if you think no one would seriously promote such absurdly vast conspiracy theories for such nefarious ends, or defend such ridiculous values as “enormous vehicles,” the essay goes on with examples from Fox News stalwarts Laura Ingraham and Tucker Carlson.

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New York Times, Paul Krugman: How America Lost the War on Covid-19, subtitled “It wasn’t because of our culture, it was because of our leadership.”

Well, I’m not sure about his premise. Let’s see what he says.

When did America start losing its war against the coronavirus? How did we find ourselves international pariahs, not even allowed to travel to Europe?
I’d suggest that the turning point was way back on April 17, the day that Donald Trump tweeted “LIBERATE MINNESOTA,” followed by “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA.” In so doing, he effectively declared White House support for protesters demanding an end to the lockdowns governors had instituted to bring Covid-19 under control.

There has been a fair bit of commentary to the effect that our failed pandemic response was deeply rooted in American culture. We are, the argument goes, too libertarian, too distrustful of government, too unwilling to accept even slight inconveniences to protect others.

And there’s surely something to this. I don’t think any other advanced country (but are we still an advanced country?) has a comparable number of people who respond with rage when asked to wear a mask in a supermarket. There definitely isn’t any other advanced country where demonstrators against public health measures would wave guns around and invade state capitols. And the Republican Party is more or less unique among major Western political parties in its hostility to science in general.

The main driving force behind reopening, as far as I can tell, was the administration’s desire to have big job gains leading into November, so that it could do what it knew how to do — boast about economic success. Actually dealing with the pandemic just wasn’t Trump’s kind of thing.

OK.

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And also on Tuesday, a Science section article called, in the print edition, Humans Fails the Math of Risk Assessment (online title “Why You’re Probably Not So Great at Risk Assessment,” posted a week ago.) This covers a range of familiar psychological issues including Optimistic Bias, Confirmation Bias, False Sense of Control, and so on.

That humans are so instinctively bad at risk assessment, especially concerning existential threats outside ordinary experience, is why, for example, the software engineering processes I helped refine when I worked in industry included a rigorous risk assessment process, which included the definition of an initial set of risks, assessed both by likelihood and impact, and a regular review and update of these risks as the project moves onward. For a pandemic and climate change, for example, the likelihood of both can, or has, been assessed at High, and the impact at Very High. Having unsuccessfully avoided the risks, mitigation plans established at the beginning of the project would have kicked in.

But some people, including our president, simply cannot wrap their heads around such concepts — or perhaps, are simply unwilling to make short-term sacrifices to avoid long-term consequences they won’t need to take responsibility for, because they’ll be out of office, or dead — and keep claiming the virus will just “go away” and that climate change is a hoax. Thus, Tr*mp “goes with his gut.” What mitigation plans existed for these risks — Obama’s pandemic response plan; the Paris Climate Agreement — Trump and his administration have trashed. MAGA!

In contrast, to get a taste of how complex and thorough the process of risk assessment can be, in different contexts, as implemented by smart people who actually get things done in the world, just glance at Wikipedia’s Risk assessment page.

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My take on this: the human mind became optimized over millions of years of relatively unchanging existence for lives that were short (compared to those in to recent decades), in an environment that was stable, and during which nothing substantial changed for generation after generation. The past few centuries of growing change has challenged this default stance, and struggles with existential threats that either challenge the unchanging order (like climate change) or are existential threats not normally seen in any one’s lifetime (like a global pandemic), are foreign to default human nature.

Which is why so many people have trouble accepting things that happen outside routine human experience.

And so there are many people who simply deny these things are happening. Some of these people prefer to believe in elaborate conspiracy theories — because they understand human motivations behind those, but not the complex interactions among people that would be required for conspiracy theories to be true.

Posted in Culture, Psychology | Comments Off on Links and Comments: Coronavirus, Climate Change, Risk Assessment

Skiffy Flix: The Picture of Dorian Gray

In the Fall of 2019, September and October, I began a systematic review of early science fiction films, and adjacent horror films, going all the way back to the beginning of modern film, so to speak–excepting the many silent-movie era adaptations of 19th century novels like Frankenstein and Dracula. That beginning being a silent film yet a significant early science fiction film (Metropolis), followed by the earliest sound-film versions, and still most famous, of Dracula and Frankenstein. My directory of those films to watch and comment on is here, http://www.markrkelly.com/Blog/bibliographies-and-reviews/skiffy-flix/. In the past month or two I’ve returned to this project, having now watched all the films in the first group up to 1945, watching them on Fridays (or yesterday, on a Monday), days when my partner is away at work.

So I’ll fill in comments about those not yet posted. Perhaps not detailed plot summaries, as in some earlier posts, just some general comments. Detailed plot summaries for all of these are on Wikipedia.

Monday 6 July: the 1945 version of The Picture of Dorian Gray. This was originally a novel by Oscar Wilde, and has apparently no fewer than 8 film adaptations (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Picture_of_Dorian_Gray_(disambiguation)).

The version I watched is, I think, the most famous; Wikipedia’s take is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Picture_of_Dorian_Gray_(1945_film). This page has a detailed plot summary.

So then just a broad outline and my comments.

I’ve never read Oscar Wilde’s book, nor seen any of the film adaptations, but I’ve been aware, as a sort of cultural meme, that it’s the story of a man who avoids growing old by having a painting of himself, hidden in closet, grow old in his place. The man remains eternally young.

  • The film is set in 1886 London. The settings of the main protagonists are enormous mansions like those in other 1930s and ‘40s Hollywood movies—fantasies, I think, even for wealthy districts like London’s Mayfair (which we visited in our April 2019 London trip, so I know where that is!), because these fantasies appealed to move-goers at that time.
  • The story breaks fairly cleanly into five or six sections, or acts.
  • The opening scene, or first act, is in the home of a painter, Basil Hallward, where he’s visited by bon vivant Lord Henry Wotton. (Who’s played by George Sanders, in a haughty and cynical characterization reminiscent of his theater critic in All About Eve, five years later.) Lord Henry goes on about how life should be devoted to pleasure, with many cynical characterizations of common social customs, like marriage. Meanwhile, Hallward’s subject for a painting is one Dorian Gray, a lovely young handsome young man….
  • Dorian Gray in this film is played by Hurd Hatfield, who did much further film work, but who in this one gives the most blank, expressionless performance I’ve ever seen. Why? I can think, given the story’s premise, only that he’s playing the aspect of his character that was captured in the portrait, somewhat serene, but rather blank.
  • (So, what is the fantasy premise?) While in Hallward house, having his portrait done, Dorian Gray notices a small statue of an Egyptian cat. It’s one of the 73 great gods of Egypt, Hallward claims. Inspired by Lord Henry, Dorian Gray wishes he could be young forever. And apparently his wish to the Egyptian cat god comes true.
  • The second act, so to speak. Inspired by Lord Henry, Dorian Gray seeks out worldly experience. He travels to a tavern in Bluegate Fields (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluegate_Fields), a famous slum in northeast London, and is smitten by a tavern girl singer (played by Angela Lansbury, in her first Oscar nominated role, as supporting actress), named Sibyl Vance. She sings a pretty little song about a yellow bird. He calls himself Sir Tristan. Later, when he tells Lord Henry about her, Henry in turn gives Gray cynical advice about dealing with women, which Gray follows: he invites her to his home, asks her not to leave (for the night), and when she hesitates but accepts, he condemns her as a harlot, and dismisses her.
  • (Now why, pursuing a life of pleasure, should Dorian Gray immediately head for the lowest class slum in all of London, as apparently Bluegate Fields was? It’s not as if he’s…. picking up whores. Or perhaps he was, in the book, and for movie sensibilities in 1945, that was glossed over. Another possibility: Oscar Wilde was a famous, relatively open homosexual, and perhaps the places in his era where he would meet compatriots was in that area. Was there any hint of this in the book, perhaps? Well, apparently not; a quick skim of the book’s plot shows that this film version was remarkably faithful to the book.)
  • Third act: Dorian Gray decides his real life will begin. He recants to Sibyl Vance, asks her to marry him; but learns she’s committed suicide instead of accepting his proposal. Then he sees the painting has changed: there’s a cruel look in his face. Fearing what this means, he hides the painting in his top floor school room, and blocks access to the room so no one will ever see it.
  • Fourth act. Years pass. He looks the same, others have aged; he’s developed a reputation for ruining people’s lives, with even a couple allusions about ruining boys’ lives. Gladys, a girl in the first act when his portrait was painted, is now all grown up (she’s played by a young Donna Reed), and is intent on marrying him, despite her engagement to another man, David (played by a young Peter Lawford). At a party (featuring Balinese dancers, very exotic I suppose for 1945), Gray rebuffs her.
  • One late foggy night Dorian passes Basil, the painter, in the street (near Grosvenor Square, at the center of Mayfair), and is obliged to invite him to his house, where he tells him the truth, showing him how the painting has changed – and now we see the painting in its final form, a grotesque monster, as shown on the Wikipedia page. Basil appeals to God and tries to pray; Dorian, fearing Basil now knows the truth, and could betray him, kills him with a knife. And then blackmails an old acquaintance to dispose of the body.
  • At a dinner, he asks Gladys to marry him, and she agrees.
  • Fifth act. He visits Bluegate Fields again, where Sibyl’s brother recognizes his name—but sees Gray as too young to be the man who caused his sister’s death 18 years before. Gray withdraws to his country estate in Selby, where a group of men hunt rabbits. The brother, having followed, is accidentally shot lurking in the bushes. This is a convenient bit of plotting, perhaps installed to push Gray over the edge with guilt at having caused the deaths of both Sibyl and her brother. So he abandons Gladys and returns to London, intent on withdrawing himself to live anonymously on the continent. But first he’ll slash the horrible portrait, stabbing it in the heart. He collapses in sympathetic magic. Gladys and the others arrive moments later, and see the painting in its original form, and a grotesque man dead on the floor.
  • Narration. Much of the back-story and character motivation is described in a calm, soothing narration by Cedric Hardwicke, whose long career included appearances in various TV shows in the early 1960s. That’s how we know, for example, Dorian Gray’s final intentions as he returns to London at the end.

Points:

  • We don’t see more than three versions of the painting; presumably production costs didn’t allow a broad range. The second version, with the cruel look, is only subtly different from the original. Remarkably, though the film is in black and white, two or three times we see full screen shots of the portrait in full color, including the grotesque version at the end.
  • Already mentioned: a scan of the novel’s plot shows the film is remarkably faithful to it.
  • So bottom line, this is a story that equates pleasure, or hedonism, with corruption, and death. That Dorian Gray dies reflects Victorian morality, I suppose, that traditional conventions are best, and self-indulgence must be restricted. On the other hand, Lord Henry (the George Sanders character) dominates the first part of the film with many witty and subversive opinions, and apparently has been living the life he’s recommended to Dorian Gray (or perhaps not; perhaps he says things merely to provoke?). And though he shocks his friends on occasion, his position in society seems secure. I suspect his character is a reflection of Wilde’s. Wikipedia notes on the novel reveal more.
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Notes for the Book: Timelines

I love timelines, especially those scaled depictions of the progress of time from left (the past) to right (the present and the future). Back in the 8th grade, I think it was, I constructed such a timeline on a scroll of paper, on what particular subject I don’t remember, except that it was inspired by articles in National Geographic and included my tracing of an illustration of Quetzalcoatl, something like the one shown at Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quetzalcoatl).

In my imaginary book timelines will be a counterpart to the hierarchies of concepts. I started thinking about that yesterday and, this morning, realized that the most prominent timelines that I know of are out there on the web; I don’t need to copy them out of the relevant books.

The big timelines are those that cover all of history, since the beginning of the universe – “big history,” in the current parlance, with human history set in proportional context.

  • One is the Timeline of History presented by Yuval Noah Harari, is his brilliant pop-history book SAPIENS: it begins 13.5 billion years ago and covers, in some two dozen steps, the significant developments of the universe and of humankind. It’s here: https://erenow.net/common/sapiensbriefhistory/1.php
  • Another is the set of thresholds of “big history,” as conceived of by David Christian, in his courses and in his book ORIGIN STORY: A BIG HISTORY OF EVERYTHING (and more loosely in the DK coffee table book BIG HISTORY.) This site, https://www.thegreatcoursesdaily.com/eight-thresholds-of-big-history/, describes the “Eight Fundamental Thresholds of Big History”; Christian’s book includes a ninth, with a question mark, “a sustainable world order,” that might be achieved in 100 years.
  • And then there’s the classic “Cosmic Calendar” of Carl Sagan, who introduced it in his 1977 book THE DRAGONS OF EDEN and popularized the concept in his 1980 TV series Cosmos; his book of the same name used literal measures of years rather than the relative calendar, presumably because he’d already introduced that in his previous book. The Cosmic Calendar has its own Wikipedia entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_Calendar.
  • And then, of course, there are any number of traditional timelines covering the geological epochs, or life on Earth, etc., many of them gathered at Wikipedia here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline.

My plan is to reduce such calendars, or timelines, into small steps, rather like David Christian’s, in order to use them as a context to discuss the big issues of science fiction.

My thought also is to develop timelines of human understanding. This will require some research. I’d like to be able to document, for instance: In 2000 BC, the average informed citizen knew (this much) about the size and age of the world. This changed by (year) when people knew the world was (this big) and much later when scientists discovered that the world was actually (this old). And so on. In part because even the best informed people today don’t appreciate how extensively this knowledge has changed over the past centuries and decades; many take for granted our understanding of the universe that has not emerged until recent decades.

Related to such timelines: appreciations of scale. The classic example is Powers of Ten, the video and book; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fKBhvDjuy0. And more examples since.

Posted in Cosmology, Culture, The Book | Comments Off on Notes for the Book: Timelines

More About Good People vs. Bad, and (Gottschall) the Ubiquity of Conspiracy Theories

Slate, June 26, Jordan Weissman: The GOP’s One Big Excuse for Cutting Off Unemployment Benefits Isn’t Even True

This topic echoes comments in recent posts about whether people are generally good or generally bad; conservatives presume the former (in particular, that recipients of welfare and unemployment insurance are lazy mooches), and religious conservatives take the matter as an article of faith because it justifies their theology; if people aren’t necessarily bad, and need fixing, the premises of their faiths evaporates.

Republicans in Congress have a simple excuse for why they don’t want to extend the $600-per-week federal unemployment benefits that are scheduled to expire at the end of July: The money, they say, will discourage Americans from going back to work, and slow down the country’s reopening, since businesses won’t be able to rehire staff.

On a moral level, this position is mean-spirited at best, since it implies that we should be forcing low-wage service workers back onto the job and risk lung death in the midst of a pandemic that is presently exploding out of control across the entire Sun Belt just so they can make rent. From a macroeconomic perspective, the argument is dicey as well, since pulling the plug on aid would hurt consumer spending and potentially put millions of jobs at risk. (I mean, if you want people to go out to the Galleria to shop, they need money. That’s science.)

Data and a graph on how unemployment (UI) payments affect the job market. Conclusion:

The most obvious explanation is that, for the moment, labor supply isn’t really a problem for the economy; labor demand is. Businesses are hiring slowly, because the coronavirus is still ripping through the country and they are only able to partially reopen.

But in the end, there just isn’t good empirical evidence that unemployment benefits are much of a drag on rehiring at the moment, and for every saltwater taffy shop owner who says he can’t find enough staff, there seem to be plenty of everyday examples of employees who’ve gone back to their old jobs even though it meant a pay cut.

What this means is that the argument against extending the CARES Act’s unemployment benefits is supremely weak.

\\

After writing up notes on the Gottschall book a couple days ago, I realized that his comments about the ubiquity of conspiracy theories are more significant than I acknowledged. There are the big ones, about JFK, 9/11, and so on, but there are millions more. I’ll quote the book, pages 113-114:

You will find that there is a conspiracy theory for just about everything. There are the big classics, invoking evil cabals of Illuminati, Masons, and Jews. there is a conspiracy theory for any major entertainment or political figure who dies young: Marilyn, Elvis, Biggie, and Tupac; Prince Di (murdered because she had an Arab baby in her womb); RFK, JFK, and MLK (all killed by the same Manchurian candidate). there are conspiracy theories about Hurricane Katrina (government operatives dynamited the levees to drown black neighborhoods), fluoridated drinking water (a means of mind control), aphrodisiac bubble gum (Israelis use it to turn Palestinian girls into tarts), jet plane vapor trails (they spew aggression-enhancing chemicals into minority neighborhoods), Paul McCartney (long dead), John Lennon (gunned down by Stephen King), the Holocaust (didn’t happen), Area 51 cover-ups (happened), moon landings (didn’t), and so on.

And if writing now, he might well have added Flat-Earth conspiracies, which to be true would require the involvement of *millions* of scientists, sailors, astronauts, and jet-airplane pilots, over hundreds of years.

What does this mean? I think, that there is a mindset among many people to see shady forces behind *everything* unusual. That need, again, for everything to “make sense” in an intuitive way. I also think, frankly, that it reveals the divide between the educated classes — those who know something about physics, chemistry, engineering, as well as psychology, even politics — and those who lead lives that don’t involve such knowledge, knowledge that is generally about how the world actually works. I think of the quote from Equus here on my blog in 2018. For most of us there is no need to debate the particulars of any one conspiracy theory; that’s not the point.

I wish I could find the reference, but a key comment about this, that I read several years ago, was about some junior congressman who came to Washington DC: (paraphrasing) “After two weeks of seeing things really work here, how inefficient it is, I’ll never believe any conspiracy theory ever again.”

I had my own encounter with a casual believer a few years ago, after we moved to Oakland. It was the lady gardener next door to us, who (still) comes about once a month, in her big beat-up old pick-up, to spend three or four hours trimming my neighbor’s shrubs and trees. (As an aside, we’ve never met this neighbor; she’s apparently a surgeon at some hospital and works crazy hours, but even on the rare occasions I’m outside and see her getting into or out of her red Mercedes SUV, she doesn’t acknowledge my greeting. We’ve never spoken.) Anyway, the first time I met this lady gardener she ask me if I understood about chemtrails. I think there was a passenger jet flying overhead at the moment, leaving a contrail. I made demurring noises. She explained, and I probably raised my eyebrows but said nothing, and she thanked me for listening. We still say hi once in a while, and that’s all.

Posted in Psychology | Comments Off on More About Good People vs. Bad, and (Gottschall) the Ubiquity of Conspiracy Theories