Strategies of Reality Denial

  • Trump’s basic strategy is “deny deny deny”;
  • Why young men turn to Nick Fuentes’ neo-Nazi movement;
  • How Trump is dragging the White House press corps, and perhaps all modern civilization, down into his gutter;
  • How Trump is reviving rules about immigration based on nationality;
  • Short takes on Dan Bongino admitting he has lied for money; and a religious zealot claiming Democrats are full of the devil.
– – –

All Trump news can be filtered through one basic strategy, that he admits to.

Salon, Sophia Tesfaye, 4 Dec 2025: Boat strikes: War crime or “fake news” hoax?, subtitle “Even as some Republicans turn on the ghastly Pete Hegseth, right-wing media can’t handle the truth”

Bob Woodward reported in “Fear” that Donald Trump once offered a friend accused of sexual harassment a simple strategy: “You’ve got to deny, deny, deny and push back… if you admit to anything, you’re dead.”

That has since become the ethos of his MAGA movement. Today, anything that threatens Trump’s power, reputation or fragile ego is instantly alchemized into a hoax. “Every scandal you hear about Trump is a media hoax designed to destroy him,” Charlie Kirk told his MAGA audience. Right-wing media simply refuses to tolerate any and all facts that disrupt the narrative ecosystem they’ve built around Trump. And now this machinery of denial is being used to excuse war crimes.

(Which, incidentally, impugns Charlie Kirk, too.) As I said two days ago, everything that counters Trump’s whims is dismissed as a scam or a hoax or a fraud or fake news. A previously admitted strategy (I wrote principle at first but that’s the wrong word): never admit you were wrong, never apologize. As it says now, deny deny deny. And that works for so many people!

The article here goes on to give examples of the many things Trump dismisses as hoaxes. Up to the current issue with Pete Hegseth and the supposed drug-smuggling boats near Venezuela. The piece concludes:

But as his coalition continues to crumble, right-wing media is sticking to the core message: If Trump or his allies do it, it’s good. If the media reports it, it’s fake. If critics object, it’s a hoax.

Theirs is a fantasy world that cannot survive contact with reality forever.

\\\

More on that struggle.

Slate, Molly Olmstead, 5 Dec 2025: Can You Save a Groyper From Himself?, subtitled “Too many young men are turning to Nick Fuentes’ neo-Nazi movement. Their loved ones are fighting to bring them back.”

As I’ve said many times, there are elements of human nature that will always be with us. And as Pinker said, in the notes I just posted today: “Yet these intuitions of community, authority, sacredness, and taboo are part of human nature and will always be with us.” Our modern world has been built by forces that tried to counteract these intuitive, tribal intuitions, else the modern global world would not have become possible. But base human nature is never going away.

The article is about two brothers, one of whom began sending

Instagram memes with medieval Crusader imagery: Reject modernity, embrace tradition.

I’ve noted before that while conservatives claim they want to preserve the best traditions of the past, when you look closely it seems they want to preserve per-Enlightenment values. Base human nature.

\\

Same theme. He wants to drag all of modern civilization down into his swamp.

Salon, Brian Karem, 5 Dec 2025: Trump is dragging the White House press corps into the gutter, subtitled “I guess the barrage of lies and insults aren’t enough. Now Trump wants the media’s complete submission”

Never forget: Each and every week, Donald Trump gets worse.

His regime is a ladder into a bottomless pit, a place that, as Hunter S. Thompson once said of journalism, is “a cruel and shallow money trench … a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free, and good men die like dogs.”

In the latest round of professional malfeasance, the president’s sycophants in the communications office have launched a “Media Bias Portal”  on the official White House website. They are encouraging people to give them “tips” when the public believes a member of the press has produced “Fake News.” Naturally, I took the opportunity to fill out the page and offered the White House a tip that its own communication staff is publishing “fake news.” I wonder how long I’ll be waiting for a response.

\\\

The big issue, perhaps, is that the US is retreating from its once global leadership in human rights and science. We are becoming no better than any other nation.

NY Times, guest essay by Amanda Frost (a law professor at the University of Virginia who specializes in immigration law), 5 Dec 2025: We Rejected This Practice 60 Years Ago. We Must Do So Again Today.

Sixty years ago, the United States abolished immigration restrictions based on nationality alone. By 1965, such discrimination had become an embarrassment. In an emotional ceremony by the Statue of Liberty, President Lyndon B. Johnson declared that the legislation he was signing “corrects a cruel and enduring wrong” and makes Americans “truer to ourselves both as a country and as a people.”

Now the Trump administration is reviving nationality-based discrimination. After an Afghan refugee was arrested in the Nov. 26 shooting of two National Guard members, the Trump administration “indefinitely” stopped processing immigration-related applications for all Afghans — even those who have lived legally in the United States for years. The administration extended that suspension to immigrants from 18 other countries, including those on the verge of receiving green cards or citizenship. President Trump declared that Somalis are “garbage” on Tuesday, adding that they should “go back to where they came from,” and has threatened to denaturalize citizens. Meanwhile, his administration claims it can classify undocumented 14-year-old Venezuelans as “alien enemies” and deport them without judicial review.

The piece goes on with history, e.g. about the Chinese Exclusion Act, which relied on stereotypes. As Trump does about Somalis. Again, it exhibit a base human nature which is hard to overcome.

\\\

Short takes:

  • JMG, 5 Dec 2025 (from Daily Beast): Bongino: “I Was Paid” To Spread Pipe Bomber Lies
  • “I was paid in the past for my opinions, that’s clear, and one day I’ll be back in that space,” Bongino declared. “But that’s not what I’m paid for now. I’m paid to be your deputy director, and we base investigations on facts.”

  • He admits that he lied.
Posted in Conservative Resistance, conservatives, Philosophy, Politics | Leave a comment

Steven Pinker, THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE, post 7

Subtitled “Why Violence Has Declined”
(Viking, Oct. 2011, xxvii + 802pp, including 106pp of notes, references, and index.)

Summary:

Chapter 9 concerns four ways in which humanity’s “better angels” turn people away from violence and toward cooperation and altruism. These are empathy and the circle of moral concern (with caution that empathy can subvert fairness, as when concern fora personal story distracts from the larger issue); self-control (with evidence that children who exhibit greater self-control becomes smarter and more successful in life); our moral sense (with the author favoring a set of four ‘relational models’ for talking about morality: Communal Sharing, Authority Ranking, Equality Matching, and Market Pricing; how political ideologies favor one or more of these; how the historical trend is away from the first two in favor of the latter two, i.e. toward social liberalism; and how these intuitions of community, authority, sacredness, and taboo and part of human nature and will always be with us);

And reason, denigrated by pop culture, yet with evidence that humanity is getting smarter as the moral circle has expanded, along with evidence that intelligence is correlated with classical liberalism. And what are the exogenous causes of these shifts? Geographical and social mobility, open societies, an objective study of history, and moral quandaries in fiction as books have become more widely read over the centuries.

Finally Chapter 10 notes that some forces have not worked to reduce violence, including weaponry, resources and power, wealth, and religion. Forces that *have* reduced violence can be assessed a “Pacifist’s Dilemma” chart: The Leviathan; gentle commerce; feminization; and expanding circle of moral concern; and the escalator of reason. Finally the author reflects on how the decline of violence may be the most significant event in the history of our species. People yearn for a simpler, peaceful past, but that past did not exist. Ending with two quotes, one about how limited in scope the lives of our ancestors were, the other about how those who think morality must be grounded in religious faith are mistaken.

Earlier:
This page page with quotes at the bottom; Post 1; Post 2; Post 3; Post 4; Post 5; Post 6.

Detailed Notes:

Chapter 9, Better Angels

  • This seems to be the age of empathy judging by book titles, e.g. by Jeremy Rifkin. But empathy isn’t the entire solution, and empathy isn’t always appropriate.
  • This chapter will explore the ‘better angels’ that restrain those inner demons. But it’s not enough just to discuss good and bad impulses. “The exploration of our better angels must show not only how they steer us away from violence, but why they so often fail to do so; not just how they have been increasingly engaged, but why history had to wait so long to engage them fully.” 573.8
  • Empathy, p573
  • The meaning of the word has changed; today it’s more like sympathy of compassion. Other meanings include projection; perspective-taking; ‘theory of mind’ or mind-reading. It’s not the same as emotional contagion.
  • Recently popular is the idea of mirror-neurons, as in Rifkin’s book; but the theory is dodgy, with many problems, e.g. that area of the brain isn’t active when empathy is felt.
  • There’s also the issue of counter-empathy, as when we feel good when someone else feels bad, as when our team wins and theirs loses.
  • Sympathy is endogenous, an effect of how people relate to one another. 578.2
  • Considering brain chemistry, a key is the hormone oxytocin, 579m, which enables components of motherhood.
  • Thus the ‘circle of empathy’ begins with babies and other species exhibiting similar features, 580.
  • The flip side of empathy is guilt; but these function only with communal relationships, not exchange ones like business transactions.
  • Is it possible to expand the circle?
  • The other quality that triggers empathy is neediness. Does empathy encourage altruism? Given different definitions of those terms, yes in either case.
  • But can sympathy be manipulated through some exogenous cause, 585.7, to explain decline in violence?
  • One way is by community building, for some grand project [[ e.g. alien invasion! ]]
  • Another idea is that empathy is encouraged through narratives in fiction and in reportage. Experiments support the idea, even when the subjects are murderers; the individual personal story provokes sympathy.
  • Fiction? George Eliot claimed so in 1856, p589. There is some evidence that reading fiction provokes sympathy – but also some pushback from those who think the idea too sentimental. Yet popular novels may have contributed to the Humanitarian Revolution, 590.4.
  • In any event, empathy is not a solution. It has a dark side: it can subvert fairness, when people place personal stories that evoke sympathy over addressing the larger issue. [[ a problem with certain types of stories !! ]]
  • And it’s too parochial; one can’t hope that “the human empathy gradient can be flattened so much that strangers would mean as much as family and friends is utopian in the worst 20th-century sense, requiring an unattainable and dubiously desirable quashing of human nature” 591.5
  • Nor is it necessary: “The Old Testament tells us to love our neighbors, the New Testament to love our enemies. The moral rationale seems to be: Love your neighbors and enemies; that way you won’t kill them. But frankly, I don’t love my neighbors, to say nothing of my enemies. Better, then, is the following ideal: Don’t kill your neighbors or enemies, even if you don’t love them.” 591.7
  • What’s better is a circle of rights – “a commitment that other living things, no matter how distant or dissimilar, be safe from harm and exploitation.”
  • p592.0: “The ultimate goal should be policies and norms that become second nature and render empathy unnecessary.” [[ expand the scope: we needn’t empathize with weird alien cultures in order to grant them equal standing on some galactic stage. ]]
  • Self-Control, p592
  • A key issue in reducing violence, as in the theory of the Civilizing Process, summary 592.6 ff. But what is the science of self-control and does it support that theory? Does the brain really contain competing systems for impulse and self-control? Etc, 593t.
  • Self-control isn’t about selfishness, and it’s not inherently rational; there are reasons, e.g., to prefer pleasure now to pleasure later, given that we might die tonight. What’s not rational is to devalue future selves too much.
  • 5 “Much of what looks like a lack of self-control in the modern world may consist of using a discounting rate that was wired into our nervous systems in the iffy world of our pre-state ancestors, when people died much younger and had no institutions that could parlay savings now into returns years later.” [[ yet another example of how our minds are optimized for ancient life. ]]
  • Mathematically, it’s called myopic discounting. There’s a tug of war in the brain over such conflicts, as confirmed by practicing neurologists who’ve observed brain damage, 596-7.
  • There are also rule-driven forms of self-control, as when we act differently to stimuli in different circumstances (e.g. what you do when a phone rings…)
  • Studies show self-control is important for a successful life; children who exhibit greater self-control grow up to be smarter and more successful.
  • And violence correlates with low self-control.
  • But it’s only a correlation. We must explain how self-control how it affected the decline of violence… 601b.
  • We note that the language of self-control is like that of force, and indeed self-control can be fatiguing. The effect is called ‘ego-depletion’, demonstrated by various studies. That is, events which require self-control, p603, lead to lapses in willpower in subsequent events.
  • Self-control flattens individuality, 604t. and there’s evidence that males especially require self-control on their sexual appetites.
  • So, can self-control be manipulated? 605.
  • So how to explain changes in self-control over the centuries?
  • There are of course techniques: don’t shop on an empty stomach, and so on 607t. Check your guns at the door. Reframe the insulter. Regimens of forced self-control. 609.2 sumry: “Ulyssean constraints, cognitive reframing, an adjustable internal discount rate, improvements in nutrition, and the equivalent of muscle gain with exercise”…
  • There are also issues of fashion; how some societies value restraint (while the 1960s glorified its relaxation).
  • But how to correlate those to societal changes? One way is to look at historical interest rates, which reflect how people think about their futures.
  • Are there patterns in cultures? There have been classifications of Apollonian and Dionysian cultures. Other studies show how countries differ across six dimensions, 611, which support the idea of levels of self-control as related to violence.
  • Recent Biological Evolution? P611
  • Have changes in the evolution of humans changed rates of violence? It’s an idea worth exploring. This book has assumed a stable human nature, over the past 10,000 years; yet some changes, if based on a single gene or a small set, can result in rapid changes.
  • Summary of gene studies, very technical, p613. Have shown results; a dig about how journalists misunderstand or oversimplify, given political implications: “The fact that a hypothesis is politically uncomfortable does not mean that it is false…”
  • So is aggression heritable? Heritability, p614, how to detect: twin studies and so on. And studies do show, 616.4
  • Specific pathways: pedomorphy (neoteny); oxytocin; testosterone; neurotransmitters.
  • Evidence? Only two slight examples. One about the Maori; another about how the English became genetic capitalists. Author concludes there is not, in fact, any good evidence along these lines, p621
  • Morality and Taboo, p622
  • There is too much morality in the world, author says – too many people using ‘morality’ to commit violence on others.
  • Issues to resolve, 622b, e.g. “How people in difference times and cultures can be driven by goals that they experience as ‘moral’ but that are unrecognizable to our own standards of morality.” How morality often increases suffering. And how it can be so compartmentalized, e.g. how the Nazis adored their pets.
  • Author distinguishes between morality and the moral sense, 623t
  • Moralized acts are universalized; actionable; and punishable.
  • They often operate as norms and taboos that can not be articulated as principles; e.g. Haidt study in which ethical conundrums confuse: “I don’t know, I can’t explain it, I just know it’s wrong.”
  • Three versions of moral concerns: Schweder’s three; Haidt’s five; and Alan Fiske’s four, which author finds “most useful”. Chart p626 to relate them.
  • Fiske’s four ‘relational models’ reflect evolution and history: “Communal Sharing”, “Authority Ranking”, “Equality Matching”, and “Market Pricing”, which author prefers to call “Rational-Legal”. These form a grammar for how to talk about issues of morality.
  • Each social norm involves one of these models, one or more roles, a context, and a resource, 629t. Applying a wrong model to a situation evokes embarrassment or shock, examples 629-630, especially when resources are deemed ‘sacred’.
  • Taboos are not irrational; they involve societal relationships. Still, there are trade-offs: routine ones, that occur within a single relational model; taboo ones, that involve a sacred value in one for a secular value in another; and ‘tragic’ ones that complete sacred values, as in Sophie’s Choice.
  • Politics is about reframing taboo tradeoffs as tragic tradeoffs… 631m.
  • Different cultures are characterized by differing emphases on these moral relationships; e.g. rules in marriages. Also sources for humor: Woody Allen, Borat; and outrage. 632b
  • And such differences define political ideologies, 632b—Communal and Authority models in ‘atavistic’ ideologies, fascism, feudalism, etc, in which interests of the individual are submerged within a community; communism combines communal, equality, and authority in different areas; socialism involves equality for resources; libertarians would make everything about Market Pricing.
  • Within these poles is the liberal-conservative continuum, 633t, per Haidt: liberals emphasize preventing harm and enforcing fairness; conservatives give equal weight to all five foundations, including loyalty, purity, and authority. Neither side is amoral; both are very moral, in different ways.
  • This theory of relational models explains a puzzle mentioned earlier: how do some once-commonplace activities come to be seen as ridiculous (dueling, etc)? Humor can challenge a relational model to show that its consequences would be absurd. …
  • How do these relational models license violence? Each model invites punishment of those who violate it.
  • Communal sharing applies to the in-group, thus dehumanizing the outgroup. Authority ranking provides rationale for slavery and colonial overlords.
  • Equality matching supplies the rationale for tit for tat retaliation: an eye for an eye, etc.
  • And rational-legal reasoning can lead to profit at the expense of slaves, human trafficking, and calculation of maximum kills.
  • What historical changes in moral psychology encouraged reductions in violence…?
  • Direction of change is clear: from Communal Sharing and Authority Ranking, to Equality Matching and Market Pricing. 636t: “The trend toward social liberalism, then, is a trend away from communal and authoritarian values and toward values based on equality, fairness, autonomy, and legally enforced rights. Though both liberals and conservatives may deny that any such a trend a taken place, consider the fact that no mainstream conservative politician today would invoke tradition, authority, cohesion, or religion to justify racial segregation, keeping women out of the workforce, or criminalizing homosexuality, arguments they made just a few decades ago.” [[ well – except Roy Moore ! ]]
  • The move away from community, sanctity, and authority results in less violence because there are fewer reasons to commit violence. One could ask if some of these reasons are legitimate wrongs; in any case, the retraction of violence in those matters “is precisely the agenda of classical liberalism: a freedom of individuals from tribal and authoritarian force, and a tolerance of personal choices as long as they do not infringe on the autonomy and well-being of others.” P637t
  • Yet these intuitions of community, authority, sacredness, and taboo are part of human nature and will always be with us. [[ thus the eternal battle of education vs ignorance, and variations of that idea; how progress could always collapse back into innate human nature. ]] At best we might channel those motivations to other areas, e.g. how to negotiate ‘sacred’ values on both sides of a conflict, e.g. Israel and Palestine, where a study showed *symbolic* concessions of sacred values works somewhat. [[ does this idea of sacred correspond to Crane’s? ]]
  • So what exogenous causes have shifted moral intuitions away from community, authority, and purity… toward fairness, autonomy, and rationality?
  • First, geographic and social mobility, 640t. Second, open societies; how Blue counties are along rivers and the coasts [[ recall Reich’s point ]]
  • And, objective study of history. Stratified societies favor myth and legend; nationalist movements inspired “potted histories of their nations’ timeless values and glorious pasts.” 641t [[ recall ACE and right-wing rewrites of American history! ]]
  • And moral quandaries in fiction – quotes a long passage from Huckleberry Finn, p641.
  • Reason, p642
  • Pop culture denigrates reason; e.g. how GW Bush didn’t need to be intelligent, how the Holocaust was somehow the fault of the Enlightenment.
  • And scientists who claim reason is just a rationalization of gut feelings.
  • Both are mistaken. Modern societies are getting smarter, and a smarter world is a less violent world.
  • As for Bush, author cites a study that places him among very bottom of a scale of raw intelligence and openness to new ideas. While the three smartest presidents, Kennedy, Carter, and Clinton, kept the country out of wars.
  • And the Holocaust was a product of Nazi ideology, which was nationalistic and anti-Enlightenment, 643b and 644t.
  • And reason v emotion? Studies don’t take into account that intuitions have already been shaped by moral reasoning over a lifetime, 644.
  • However recall Hume: reason is just a process of getting from one proposition to the next, never mind their value.
  • Why would reason itself lead to reduced violence?
  • Voltaire’s quip; by debunking hogwash.
  • Aligning with self-control.
  • How the four relational models entail particular styles of reasoning: Communal Sharing is all or nothing, the intuitive biology of purity and contamination; Authority Ranking uses a linear ranking, the intuitive physics of forces; Equality Matching uses a scale of intervals; only Market Pricing uses proportionality, “nonintuitive tools of symbolic mathematics” 646.0. [[ religion is easy, science is hard ]]
  • But should rationality lead to wanting less violence?
  • Yes, given two conditions: that reasoning beings care about their own welfare; and that the reasoner is part of a community of other reasoners.
  • Thus, self-interest and sociality lead to a morality with a goal of nonviolence. Process ongoing: 648.3ff This is Peter Singer’s expanding circle; his metaphor is that of an escalator, of reason.
  • Yet why has the ride been so bumpy? Singer suggests because geniuses are so rare, 649b.
  • Or is it that humanity itself is getting smarter?
  • Yes, in part: we are getting smarter, as detected by James Flynn in the 1980s, who observed that IQ tests are periodically recalibrated upwards. This increase in intelligence, now called the Flynn Effect, is limited to abstract reasoning, and seems to be the result of increased education in abstract issues over the past century. It’s environmental – not an evolutionary shift. Examples of questions asked in 1900. An effect of schooling, 654b; less memorization, more reasoning; a trickle-down of scientific reasoning, e.g. list of terms now familiar 655b.
  • So: the pacifying effects of reason, and the Flynn effect; have they led to decrease in violence?
  • p656.4: “We have several grounds for supposing that enhanced powers of reason – specifically, the ability to set aside immediate experience, detach oneself from a parochial vantage point, and frame one’s ideas in abstract, universal terms – would lead to better moral commitments, including an avoidance of violence.” [[–this almost sounds like a manifesto for science fiction…!]]
  • Sanity check: are people today really smarter? Well, note the “intellectual renaissance in recent decades” 657m in science and technology, nice Q. And moral progress: the Long peace, the rights revolutions.
  • Yet were our ancestors morally retarded? Perhaps yes; consider how early 20th C presidents sanctioned oppression of Native Americans; how Churchill felt the Aryan stock would triumph, 658. They had a moral compartmentalization… [[ to the extent that these gains are from education, they could vanish… ]]
  • Similar moral stupidity was built into law. Consider a lawyer’s testimony from 1876, 659b, about how the Chinese religion must be wrong because “ours is right”.
  • Even intellectuals, e.g. Eliot and others, 660t.
  • But, is it true that the Flynn effect has expanded the moral circle? There’s evidence along seven lines. Again, it’s not overall intelligence that’s increased, just one type; and it’s not a direct effect of intellectuals.
    • Violent crime. Smarter people are less violent.
    • Cooperation: smarter people did better at the prisoner’s dilemma. Note Hofstadter’s idea of ‘superrationality’, 661m, an objective analysis of the entire situation.
    • Liberalism: smarter people are more liberal, in the classical sense, “which values autonomy and well-being of individuals over the constraints of tribe, authority, and tradition” 662m. Surveys of IQs show a range from ‘very conservative’ to ‘very liberal’ p662-3. Another study: “bright children become enlightened adults” 663; emphasizing reason and individualism over tradition.
    • Economic literacy, i.e. the theory of gentle commerce from classical liberalism, that understands positive-sum payoffs. “That set it in opposition to populist, nationalist, and communist mindsets that see the world’s wealth as zero-sum..” [[ Trump! ]]
    • Democracy is fortified by education and intellectual proficiency, one leg of Kant’s tripod. Boston Public Library: education required for order and liberty.
    • Civil war…
    • Political discourse. Has it really coarsened? No; the opposite. Examples of qualities of arguments in congress, in 1917 and 1972. Exception: American presidential debates. “Joe the Plumber” 668m. Because those debates are aimed at the sliver of undecided voters, uninformed and apt to be swayed by sound-bites. [[ and Trump hadn’t come along… ]] A vulnerability of the American political system…
  • Summary 668b, from empathy, to self-control, etc. “Reason is up to these demands because it is an open-ended combinatorial system, an engine for generating and unlimited number of new ideas…” 669.3 … “And if you detect a flaw in this argument, it is reason that allows you to point it out and defends an alternative.” [[ cf. Asimov commented somewhere that if you don’t believe in “reason” the only way to convince anyone you’re right is… through reason. ]]
  • Ending with a long quote from Adam Smith on moral sentiments.

Ch 10, On Angels’ Wings

  • Darwin quote, about extending sympathies to all nations and races.
  • Finally, the broad forces that have pushed violence downward – but not predictions or advice. “As a scientist, I must be skeptical of any mystical force or cosmic destiny that carries us ever upward.” 671.7
  • Important but Inconsistent, 672
  • First, forces that have not worked to reduce violence:
    • Weaponry, disarmament. Weapons get better, even as violence has declined; guns don’t kill people, people do.
    • Resources and power. Wars aren’t fought over resources.
    • No tight correlations between wealth and nonviolence.
    • Religion — clearly not a force for peace – examples 676b—despite claims. Nor were fascism and communism atheistic, 677.3. Occasional particular religions have worked for peace – Quakers, etc. 677b. So Hitchens was overstating it when he said that religion poisons *everything*. Religions adapt, e.g. the Mormons, 678t.
  • The Pacifist’s Dilemma, 678
  • Now apply the forces that do reduce violence to the paradigm of the prisoner’s dilemma, using the same chart, but now called the Pacifist’s Dilemma, with scores assigned the each of two parties, each a Pacifist or an Aggressor, p679t.
    • The Leviathan: this shifts the outcomes by adding penalties to the aggressor’s scores for victory or defeat, 681.
    • Gentle Commerce: this greatly increases the score for mutual peace. 683m.
    • Feminization, i.e. the growing influence of women over the domination of men, in politics, etc.; away from the culture of honor. This reduces scores for aggression. Some conservative scholars rue the loss of “virtues like bravery and valor and the ascendancy of materialism, frivolity, decadence, and effeminacy”; author responds that reducing violence should be a good thing, and maybe the victims of such manly violence might be taken into account, 687t.
    • Furthermore, how societies with deficits of women leave unmarried men as ‘bare branches’ who are likely to go wild or become fodder for armies. And a study that suggests that “giving women more control over their reproductive capacity (always the contested territory in the biological battle of the sexes) may be the single most effective way of reducing violence in the dangerous parts of the world today.” 688.7
    • The Expanding Circle, 689
    • Smry p689 “involves occupying another person’s vantage point and imagining his or her emotions as if they were your own”
    • The Escalator of Reason, 690
    • Smry 690.6; “involves ascending to an Olympian, superrational vantage point—the perspective of eternity, the view from nowhere—and considering one’s own interests and another person’s as equivalent.”
    • And there is an additional exogenous source: “the nature of reality, with its logical relationships and empirical facts that are independent of the psychological makeup of the thinkers who attempt to grasp them.” 690.7.
    • 6: “A broader effect… “ “A humanistic value system, which privileges human flourishing as the ultimate good, is a product of reason because it can be justified: it can be mutually agreed upon by any community of thinkers who value their own interests and are engaged in reasoned negotiation, whereas communal and authoritarian values are parochial to a tribe or hierarchy.” 691.7
    • 8: “When history’s failed experiments are held up the light, the evidence suggests that value systems evolve in the direction of liberal humanism. … We saw this as well in the way that these revolutions eventually swept up the conservatives who first opposed them.”
    • Is this Whiggish? Yet it’s supported by facts.
  • Reflections, 692
  • “The decline of violence may be the most significant and least appreciated development in the history of our species.”
  • First, a concern about how the world considers modernity, def. 692.7 It’s seems fashionable to loathe it; to express nostalgia for a simpler time. Yet statisticians and historians marshal against it – book titles 692b – 693t, including Matt Ridley.
  • Because we forget, or don’t know, what the past was like. 693.4: “Until recently most people never traveled more than a few miles….” Worth full quote:

Until recently most people never traveled more than a few miles from their place of birth. Everyone was ignorant of the vastness of the cosmos, the prehistory of civilization, the genealogy of living things, the genetic code, the microscopic world, and the constituents of matter and life. Musical recordings, affordable books, instant news of the world, reproductions of great art, and filmed dramas were inconceivable, let alone available in a tool that can fit in a shirt pocket. When children emigrated, their parents might never see them again, or hear their voices, or meet their grandchildren. And then there are modernity’s gifts of life itself: the additional decades of existence, the mothers who live to see their newborns, the children who survive their first years on earth.

  • And yet, say many, we suffer such violence. But we’ve seen that the past was not peaceable. Some, like Robert Wright, have noticed the decline of violence and have been tempted to ascribe it to divinity.
  • Is there an arrow to history, and can we wonder who posted it? Or might it vindicate the notion of moral realism?
  • Author’s view, 694b… the realities of existence and thinking. And 695.8:

“Though our escape from destructive contests is not a cosmic purpose, it is a human purpose. Defenders of religion have long claimed that in the absence of divine edicts, morality can never be grounded outside ourselves. People can pursue only selfish interests, perhaps tweaked by taste or fashion, and are sentenced to lives of relativism and nihilism. We can now appreciate why this line of argument is mistaken. Discovering earthly ways in which human beings can flourish, including stratagems to overcome the tragedy of the inherent appeal of aggression, should be purpose enough for anyone. It is a goal that is nobler than joining a celestial choir, melting into a cosmic spirit, or being reincarnated into a higher life-form, because the goal can be justified to any fellow thinker rather than being inculcated to arbitrary factions by charisma, tradition, or force. And the data we have seen in this book show that it is a goal on which progress can be made—progress that is halting and incomplete, but unmistakable nonetheless.”

  • p696, finally, a reflection on the actual agony of those who’ve died in violence over the millennia, and those they left behind.
Posted in Book Notes, Human Nature, Morality, Science, Steven Pinker | Leave a comment

The Trembling Present

Are we on the verge of societal collapse in the US, back into totalitarianism or feudalism, or will this current era pass?

  • Ilhan Omar on Trump’s naked bigotry;
  • Robert Reich on Trump’s mental decline, and the relaxing of inhibitions in people in their 80s and 90s;
  • How anti-science cynics like RFK Jr. have always been around;
  • Adam Serwer wonders why Trump’s racism isn’t a problem for his fans;
  • Short items about lame ICE recruits, LGBTQ safety standards, and Kennedy Center artists who’ve been stiffed.
– – –

Because there was some sort of tax-fraud scheme among Somali immigrants in Minnesota, Trump now trashes the entire nation, its people, and US citizens who immigrated from there. As racist conservatives do.

NY Times, guest essay by Ilhan Omar, 4 Dec 2025: Ilhan Omar: Trump Knows He’s Failing. Cue the Bigotry.

On Tuesday, President Trump called my friends and me “garbage.”

This comment was only the latest in a series of remarks and Truth Social posts in which the president has demonized and spread conspiracy theories about the Somali community and about me personally. For years, the president has spewed hate speech in an effort to gin up contempt against me. He reaches for the same playbook of racism, xenophobia, Islamophobia and division again and again. At one 2019 rally, he egged on his crowd until it chanted “send her back” when he said my name.

Mr. Trump denigrates not only Somalis but so many other immigrants, too, particularly those who are Black and Muslim. While he has consistently tried to vilify newcomers, we will not let him silence us. He fails to realize how deeply Somali Americans love this country. We are doctors, teachers, police officers and elected leaders working to make our country better. Over 90 percent of Somalis living in my home state, Minnesota, are American citizens by birth or naturalization. Some even supported Mr. Trump at the ballot box.

“I don’t want them in our country,” the president said this week. “Let them go back to where they came from.”

You all good with this, Trump voters?

(I know, I know: The Democrats would take away your guns!)

\\

And with this, Trump voters?

Robert Reich, 4 Dec 2025: The clearest symptom yet of Trump’s mental decline, subtitled “His brain is turning into sh*t”

After criticizing media coverage about him aging in office, Trump appeared to be falling asleep during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday.

But that’s hardly the most troubling aspect of his aging.

In the last few weeks, Trump’s insults, tantrums, and threats have exploded.

To Nancy Cordes, CBS’s White House correspondent, he said: “Are you stupid? Are you a stupid person? You’re just asking questions because you’re a stupid person.”

About New York Times correspondent Katie Rogers: “third rate … ugly, both inside and out.”

More examples, including the one above about “garbage”. Then:

What to make of all this?

Trump’s press hack Karoline Leavitt tells reporters to “appreciate the frankness and the openness that you get from President Trump on a near-daily basis.”

Sorry, Ms. Leavitt. This goes way beyond frankness and openness. Trump is now saying things nobody in their right mind would say, let alone the president of the United States.

But then Reich turns to a more general issue.

It’s true that when you’re pushing 80, brain inhibitors start shutting down. You begin to let go. Even in my daily Substack letter to you, I’ve found myself using language that I’d never use when I was younger, like the word “sh*t” in this subtitle.

When my father got into his 90s, he told his friends at their weekly restaurant lunch that it was about time they paid their fair shares of the bill. He told his pharmacist that he was dangerously incompetent and should be fired. He told me I needed to dress better and get a haircut.

He lost some of his inhibitions, but at least his observations were accurate.

I think older people lose certain inhibitions because they don’t care as much about their reputations as do younger people. In a way, that’s rational. Older people no longer depend on their reputations for the next job or next date or new friend. If a young person says whatever comes into their heads, they have much more to lose, reputation-wise.

But Trump’s outbursts signal something more than the normal declining inhibitions that come with older age. Trump no longer has any filters. He’s becoming impetuous.

This would be worrying about anyone who’s aging. But a filterless president of the United States who says anything that comes into his head poses a unique danger. What if he gets angry at China, calls up Xi, tells him he’s an asshole, and then orders up a nuclear bomb?

Is it because you have little left to lose? Or because the brain is actually deteriorating?

It’s time the media reported on this. It’s time America faced reality. It’s time we demanded that our representatives in Congress take action, before it’s too late.

Invoke Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.

Personally, I’ll be surprised if Trump finishes his term. For one reason or another.

\\\

Slate, Mary Harris, 4 Dec 2025: How Many Kids Will Have to Die for RFK Jr. to Be Stopped?

Key quote:

“Anti-vaccine activists like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have been around forever, arguably since the first vaccine, usually shouting from the sidelines, but now they’re not shouting from the sidelines anymore, they’re making policy,” says Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.

Cynics and the intuitively superstitious will always doubt scientific claims. Despite the enormous amount of evidence that society and societal health has improved over the past century due to application of scientific discoveries, including vaccines.

\\\

The Atlantic, Adam Serwer, 4 Dec 2025: Why Doesn’t Trump Pay a Political Price for His Racism?, subtitled “Immigration isn’t breaking our society. We are.”

More about those Somalis.

During a White House meeting on Tuesday, surrounded by his Cabinet, President Donald Trump referred to Somali immigrants as “garbage” and said, “We don’t want them in our country.” No one in Trump’s Cabinet stood up to this expression of gutter racism, although Vice President J. D. Vance enthusiastically banged on the table. The president’s remarks were ostensibly in response to real events—in Minnesota, dozens of members of the Somali diaspora have been implicated in fraud related to social services—but the community does not bear responsibility for the actions of those individuals.

This is such an obvious point, but Trump fans apparently don’t understand this. It’s the essence of xenophobia and prejudice: judging an entire group based on the sins of one, or a few.

Similarly, white Americans as a whole are not responsible for Trump largely dismantling the federal government’s capacity to fight white-collar crime and corruption, his doling out of pardons for people who donate money or commit crimes on his behalf, or his scandalous profiteering. I don’t believe that there is something inherent in white culture that causes Trump to act this way; he is simply a particularly reprehensible human being.

And a good last paragraph:

There is a difference between inheritance and action. I cannot help who my ancestors are, but I can make my own choices. That so many Americans chose to place in power a man who holds people in contempt on the basis of race, religion, and national origin; that so much of the mainstream media conveys this bigotry through tired, obfuscating euphemisms; that there is so low a political price for the president’s racism that he and those around him see little risk in its expression—well, that does say something about America, and Americans. Immigration isn’t breaking our society. That’s a job Americans can do on their own.

This is an example of criticism of mainstream media from the left, for those on the right who think MSM is beholden to the left.

\\\

Briefly noted.

Posted in Conservative Resistance, Lunacy, Politics | Leave a comment

Steven Pinker, THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE, post 6

Subtitled “Why Violence Has Declined”
(Viking, Oct. 2011, xxvii + 802pp, including 106pp of notes, references, and index.)

 

Summary:

Chapter 8 concerns five forces that drive violence: Predation, Dominance, Revenge, Sadism, and Ideology. Humans are not innately aggressive, except in certain circumstances that trigger violence. So a dark side does exist (the human mind is not a blank slate, as Pinker established in an earlier book), but it’s not an ever-present mounting urge. A Moralization Gap describes how humans, subject to self-serving biases, create competing narratives of perpetrator and victim, depending on point of view, and how perpetrators often feel themselves to be victim; i.e. there’s no such thing as pure evil. For each of the five forces, Pinker identifies what drives them, and social developments in the 20th century have ameliorated them.

Comments:

I note several ideas I’ve absorbed and occasionally cite.

  • The observation that many people love to watch violence, especially on TV and in movies. And that this, ironically, gives many people, especially conservatives who are prone to alarm, the idea that crime is running rampant across the nation.
  • The notion of ‘pure evil’ as a childish oversimplification of a complex world, especially evident once you read accounts by ‘evildoers’ about how they think *they* are the victims, e.g. of assault on the purity of their race or nation. Or wokeness.
  • There’s a running theme here of the psychological biases of humans, which of course reflects the author’s two earlier books, HOW THE MIND WORKS and THE BLANK SLATE.
  • And of the tendency of humans to be tribal and to arrange themselves in dominance hierarchies
  • The broad recognition that the second half of the 20th century was an age of psychology — the ideologies of Freud and behaviorism giving way to genetic rationales for behaviors, and clinical studies to uncover the biases and tendencies of human nature.
  • And in general, the 20th century forces that have somewhat overcome these instincts are those considered progressive, or by conservatives, woke. The intermixing of cultures around the world, the recognition of science, the spread of knowledge and experience through books. The retreat from fundamentalist ideologies, including religious ones. An open society in which no one is punished for airing dissenting views.
  • Alas, some of these forces seem to be in retreat…

Earlier:
This page page with quotes at the bottom; Post 1; Post 2; Post 3; Post 4; Post 5.

Chapter 8: Inner Demons

  • We need to explain both violence, and its decline. This goes to whether humans are basically good, or bad, or some multiplex combination.
  • The Dark Side
  • First to establish that the dark side exists – that most of us *are* wired for violence.
  • Evidence: the ‘terrible twos’, after which toddlers become less aggressive. And our ‘inner lives’ – how often many of us imagine killing another person, and how we so enjoy depictions of violence in religious texts, myths, movies, comics, etc, 484-485.
  • It’s notable that actual violent incidents are very small compared to depictions; perhaps our interest is to understand how it works, just in case, 485.6; similar argument for illicit sex. 485.7 “Symons suggests that higher consciousness itself is designed for low-frequency, high-impact events.”
  • Our own brains are “swollen and warped” versions of the brains of other mammals. We have a ‘rage circuit’ which can be triggered.
  • But if that’s so, why the frequency of soldiers hesitating to fight in war? Similar pattern in brawls – they’re mostly bluff. Perhaps due to discretion, the understanding that personal harm or family retaliation may follow. Most human violence is cowardly, 487.7; when such issues aren’t present, men can explode into ‘rampages’…
  • The Moralization Gap and the Myth of Pure Evil p488
  • Author’s book The Blank Slate explored the modern denial of this dark side of human nature.
  • Evil people don’t think of themselves as evil. Experiments identify two competing narratives: that of the perpetrator, and that the victim. Both sides tell stories that distort the truth, p489. Call this the Moralization Gap.
  • These are because of self-serving biases—“The drive to present the self in a positive light was one of the major findings of 20th-century social psychology.” 490.4. Effects of this drive include cognitive dissonance, and the Lake Woebegon effect.
  • These are the prices of being social animals, 490b. Trivers; other books 490m. The glimmer of hope is that by understanding this effect people might be able to recognize that we are not always right, 492.6ff
  • Given this psychological understanding, we can look at history differently. Each side in a conflict sincerely believes it is in the right – examples 492-493. Victims remember long-term events; perpetrators excuse themselves and want to move on, 493. Japan overlooks WWII; the American view of WWII overlooks various causes. Criminals rationalize, often claiming themselves as victims. “Evildoers always think they are acting morally” 494b.
  • To understand this, as a scholar, is often to take the side of the perpetrator, as opposed to the moralist, who takes the side of the victim, and demonizing the other side as pure evil. This myth of pure evil shows up in religions and popular fiction, 496m. To understand it risks being accused of ‘making excuses’ or ‘blaming the victim’. Hannah Arendt understood the ‘banality of evil’.
  • Organs of Violence, p497
  • It’s a myth that violence in humans is merely ‘animalistic’, despite words like beastly and brutish. For one thing, predatory violence is very different than aggression, as can be seen in a housecat.
  • Detailed description of a rat’s brain, and then of a human brain… how different areas control different kinds of response. We understand how certain areas work because of famous cases like Phineas Gage.
  • How moral deliberation works; e.g. hiding from Nazis in the cellar, do you strangle the crying baby to save the others?
  • There are five categories of violence as explored here: predatory; dominance; revenge; sadism; and ideology.
  • Predation, p509
  • In which violence is simply a means to an end, e.g. hunting for food or sport. It can include casual violence against humans, cases that people think are evidence of pure evil, 510m. The question is why isn’t such violence more common?
  • Two forces are at work: first, the reaction when the target fights back, violence turns to anger…
  • Second, people are prone to positive illusions, whereby they exaggerate their own talents and abilities, 511b – 512. Why should this be so? Perhaps some slight delusions about oneself make one more believable to potential allies, while straight-out lying would be more likely detected, 512.5: “It would be better for the species if no one exaggerated, but our brains were not selected for the benefit of the species, and no individual can afford to be the only honest one in a community of self-enhancers.”
  • Thus many military actions are led by general overconfident of their likelihood of victory. Example: Bush and Iraq war, in which the flow of information that might have clued the military leaders they were over-extended was cut off – ‘unknown knowns’, 514b, which Rumsfeld missed.
  • Dominance, p515
  • Much violence erupts from trivial altercations that threaten the perceived dominance hierarchy, which depends on information, on common knowledge of everyone’s position and status.
  • Men are more concerned with status, and men are more violent, 517.5. High status men have more women – 517.9 – 518.
  • Testosterone isn’t exactly a cause of aggression; it seems T prepares one for a challenge of dominance, 518.
  • Despite modern myth, it’s not low self-esteem that causes violence – rather, *high* self-esteem, e.g. tyrants who are narcissists, psychopaths, or with borderland personality disorder (see definitions 520b).
  • Another factor is group identity – how we can feel proud of our group even when no one alive is actually to credit for the group’s achievement. People assign groups the qualities of individuals, with traits for praise or blame. Thus sports and politics – sports even when the players keep changing (cheering for the teams’ clothes). We align with groups even when distinctions among them are trivial or arbitrary. Toddlers exhibit racist attitudes naturally – these things have to be unlearned, not learned. [[ as I’ve long thought ]] 523t.
  • p523: How two psychologists propose that “people, to varying degrees, harbor a motive they call social dominance, through a more intuitive term is tribalism: the desire that social groups be organized into a hierarchy, generally with one’s own group dominant over the others. A social dominance orientation, they show, inclines people to a sweeping array of opinions and values, including patriotism, racism, fate, karma, caste, national destiny, militarism, toughness on crime, and defensives of existing arrangements of authority and inequality. An orientation away from social dominance, in contract, inclines people to humanism, socialism, feminism, universal rights, political progressivism, and the egalitarian and pacifist themes in the Christian Bible.”
  • Thus race itself isn’t so important; people have divided themselves into groups long before the various races came together.
  • Nationalism welds three things: the tendency toward tribalism; the concept of a group sharing some quality; and government. Add narcissism, and you get cultures prone to go to war for perceived slights or feelings of disrespect from the rest of the world (these days: Russia, the Islamic world). Some countries, like Holland and Switzerland, gave up such preeminence games; others never considered it (Canada, New Zealand).
  • Ethnic groups often coexist without violence, even if they don’t like each other.
  • If men are more obsessed with dominance, would the world be a better place if women were in charge? 526.3. With qualifications, yes. They are certainly less inclined to war.
  • 528: “Dominance is an adaptation to anarchy, and it serves no purpose in a society that has undergone a civilizing process or in an international system regulated by agreements and norms. Anything that deflates the concept of dominance is likely to drive down the frequency of fights between individuals and wars between groups.”
  • Two forces in mid/late 20th century: the exposure and ridicule of manliness, honor, prestige, and glory in movies and popular culture. And the influence of biological science on literary culture, i.e. understanding of testosterone and the decline in books of words like glorious and honorable.
  • Revenge, p529
  • Throughout history: Bible, Homer, Shakespeare, other cultures. And it’s a major cause of violence – e.g. bin Laden’s statement about 9/11 being in revenge. And most student fantasies of violence were about revenge.
  • Studies show how common the urge is…
  • And it has a function: deterrence. The evolution of cooperation can be illustrated by the Prisoner’s Dilemma, p533, and refinements to the Tit for Tat strategy; repeated runs show that Tit for Tat is equivalent to the theory of reciprocal altruism. It’s not a disease; playing out the strategy illustrates various personality traits: nice; clear; retaliatory; forgiving.
  • Forgiving is especially important, in variations like Generous TforT and Contrite TforT. It adjusts for periodic misunderstandings. But interactions must be ongoing for forgiveness to be effective. Why gossip is effective. Other games, like Public Goods or Tragedy of the Commons, lead to problem situations unless free riders can be punished.
  • Does revenge work? Yes; so long as the avenger has a reputation for willingness to take revenge, and as long as the target knows why he’s targeted.
  • Why is it needed so often? It maps to the Moralization Gap, and tends to escalate with the Leviathan to cut it off and administrate ‘justice’, which is partly a matter of citizens’ ‘revenge’ against a perpetrator, as well as deterrence.
  • The ‘dimmer switch’ on escalating revenge is that we tend to forgive kin and friends, or with people we have to learn to live with. Thus the idea of apology – which must be made sincerely lest be seen as a ploy.
  • And in fact governments in recent decades have increasingly apologized for past behaviors. P543.
  • These can lead to reconciliations between former enemies, but four elements are required: truth-telling, adjustments of social identities (military becomes police, e.g.), incomplete justice – at some point amnesty must be allowed, since every perceived injustice on both sides can never be fully accounted for – and social gestures to underscore the new order.
  • Example of Israel and Palestine—a Shakespearean tragedy, or Chekovian? At least with the latter, everyone is still alive.
  • Sadism, p547
  • Surely the worst qualitative depravity. Sadism, i.e. torture, can arise in five circumstances: instrumental violence (torturing a prisoner for information); as punishment; as entertainment; during rampages; and by serial killers (as distinguished from mass murderers).
  • And there are four motives that bring it about: morbid fascination with the vulnerability of living things (the attraction of horror films e.g.); dominance; revenge; and sexual sadism.
  • Males are more aggressive than females, and thus more likely to be violent in sex. Some testimonies of torture include erotic reactions.
  • What brakes sadists? First, empathy for others; then cultural taboo; and of course the visceral revulsion of hurting another person.
  • Then what triggers it? Rampages; psychopathy. It’s an acquired taste, like drug addiction, that is often unpleasant at first, like other paradoxical pleasures 555b, that can become addicting.
  • So it’s a potential in human nature that can be prevented only by blocking the first steps that lead to it. P556.
  • Ideology, p556
  • “The infinite good it promises prevents its true believers from cutting a deal. It allows any number of eggs to be broken to make the utopian omelet. And it renders opponents of the ideology infinitely evil and hence deserving of infinite punishment.” 556.8
  • Longer summary 557t… “Let these ingredients brew in the mind of a narcissist with a lack of empathy, a need for admiration, and fantasies of unlimited success…”
  • This happens even though the ideals of many of these are ludicrous –557m, burning witches, etc.
  • Ideologies happen through various kinds of groupthink. Polarization of thought; people are influenced by those around them. The Stanley Milgram experiment.
  • 7: “People take their cues on how to behave from other people. This is a major conclusion of the golden age of social psychology…” (meaning the 1960s). The Stanford prison experiment; explains Abu Ghraib. People are inclined to conform. Similar experiments show rates are down, but “a majority of people will still hurt a stranger against their own inclinations if they see it as part of a legitimate project in their society.” 560.6
  • Conformity isn’t entirely irrational, but it can be pathological, as when an early standard gets locked into place against better alternatives (QWERTY, Microsoft s/w); bestsellers. Various terms for ‘going with the crowd’. Also ‘spirals of silence’ where people go along because they think everyone else wants the same thing, or despite the evidence of their senses.
  • Such conformity must come with some kind of enforcement, lest objectors point out false beliefs. Experiments show how mixes of true believers with skeptics widely scattered can eventually saturate a society; the way to avoid this would be through open societies with free of speech and movement and well-developed channels of communication, 564t.
  • Experiments demonstrate how people will agree to a false consensus, e.g. a bad wine, or evaluations of academic garbage.
  • Yet, how do these effects lead to violence? Through the Moralization Gap. People rationalize situations, to reduce cognitive dissonance.
  • Through euphemism, gradualism, displacement of responsibility (I was only following orders), distancing (literally; not killing up close), and derogation of victims.
  • There’s no cure, but the best vaccine is “an open society in which people and ideas move freely and no one is punished for airing dissenting views, including those that seem heretical to polite consensus” p569.2
  • Pure Evil, Inner Demons, and the Decline of Violence, p569
  • “The alternative to the myth of pure evil is that most of the harm that people visit on one another comes from motives that are found in every normal person.”
  • “The second half of the 20th century was an age of psychology.”
  • Summary of entire chapter: last para on p570:

“People, especially men, are overconfident in their prospects for success; when they fight each other, the outcome is likely to be bloodier than any of them thought. People, especially men, strive for dominance for themselves and their groups; when contests of dominance are joined, they are unlikely to sort the parties by merit and are likely to be a net loss for everyone. People seek revenge by an accounting that exaggerates their innocence and their adversary’s malice; when two sides seek perfect justice, they condemn themselves and their heirs to strife. People can not only overcome their revulsion to hands-on violence but acquire a taste for it; if they indulge it in private, or in cahoots with their peers, they can become sadists. And people can avow a belief they don’t hold because they think everyone else avows it; such beliefs can sweep through a closed society and bring it under the spell of a collective delusion.”

Posted in Book Notes, Steven Pinker | Leave a comment

The Fog of War, Hurricanes, and Cave Man Mentality

  • JD Vance’s caveman rage against a lesbian stepmom;
  • Heather Cox Richardson about Trump’s decline in mental acuity, and Sen. Mark Kelly on Pete Hegseth;
  • Zack Beauchamp on how Trump is advancing the white nationalist worldview;
  • Hegseth’s misunderstanding of the metaphor “fog of war”;
  • Briefly noted items about hurricanes, affordability, unlawful orders, the Ten Commandments, and that “Bible Says So” essay in Oklahoma.
  • Preisner: Red.
– – –

 

Given the weightiness of the discussions summarized in the Steven Pinker posts this week, I think it entirely justified to balance things out with the latest lunacies from the Trump administration for today’s regular post.

(Also, I’m again tweaking my format here for posted items, to see it if works.)

– – –

  • LGBTQNation, Alex Bollinger, 28 Aug 2024 (yes it’s from last year, but it popped up on the site’s homepage a few days ago): JD Vance rages at lesbian stepmom for being childless & “brainwashing” children, subtitled “Her not having biological children ‘really disorients me, and it really disturbed me,’ Vance said.”
  • Disturbed? Disoriented? Because in cave man morality the only reason for the existence of a woman is to bear children?
– – –
  • Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American: December 1, 2025. About Trump’s decline.
  • President Donald J. Trump’s behavior over the holiday weekend has increased concern about his mental acuity. A rant on his social media account at midnight on Thanksgiving itself threatened to strip citizenship from naturalized immigrants, called Minnesota governor Tim Walz a profoundly offensive slur, and ended: “HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for—You won’t be here for long!”

    On NBC’s Meet the Press yesterday, Walz responded by calling for Trump to release the results of an MRI he told reporters he underwent in October, later saying: “I have no idea what they analyze, but whatever they analyze, they analyzed it well and they said that I had as good a result as they’ve ever seen.” Although Trump told reporters the MRI was part of his routine physical, medical experts say such tests are not routine.

  • And Sen. Mark Kelly on Pete Hegseth.

    “[H]e runs around on a stage like he’s a 12-year-old playing army. And it is ridiculous, it is embarrassing, and I can’t imagine what our allies think of looking at that guy in this job, one of the most important jobs in our country…. He is in the national command authority for nuclear weapons. And last night, he’s putting out on the internet turtles with rocket-propelled grenades…. This is the secretary of defense. This is not a serious person. He should have been fired after Signalgate. And then every single day after that.”

– – –
  • Vox, Zack Beauchamp, 3 Dec 2025: The dark reality behind Trump’s new anti-immigrant policies, subtitled “His administration is now openly advancing a worldview built by white nationalists in the 2010s.”
  • Like the guy in 2016 who said “One fundamental policy we’re going to put forward is a break on all immigration, particularly non-European immigration, for a 50-year period.”
  • Trump, in particular, considers Somali immigrants to be “garbage.”
– – –

  • NY Times, 3 Dec 2025: Hegseth Invoked the ‘Fog of War’ in a Boat Strike. What Does That Mean?, subtitled “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth used the term, which alludes to uncertainty in battle, in reference to a deadly U.S. military attack in the Caribbean.”
  • Hegseth thinks that a metaphor for uncertainty, an idea coined by Carl von Clausewitz, is literally about fog.
  • “I did not personally see survivors,” he said at a cabinet meeting in the White House, referring to people who were clinging to the boat’s wreckage between two U.S. strikes on Sept. 2. “The thing was on fire. It exploded, there’s fire, there’s smoke.”

    “This is called the fog of war,” he added.

– – –
  • Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, 3 Dec 2025: Texas families file class action lawsuit to halt Ten Commandments display in every school district, subtitled “As Attorney General Ken Paxton urges districts to disobey federal rulings, church/state watchdogs are pushing for a statewide injunction”
  • Because school districts in Texas keep defying judicial orders against posting the Ten Commandments in public schools. They think they know better than the law, because they have God on their side.
  • JMG, 3 Dec 2025: Former Oklahoma Schools Chief: Fire Everybody Who Agreed With Flunking Student For “Bible Says So” Essay
  • Once again, evidence for my provisional conclusion that religious inculcation (especially in childhood) undermines the ability to think rationally, to draw conclusions from object evidence and not from authority or holy books. Christians, some of them at least, seem genuinely not to understand this. Their old stories must be retained as their modern stories. Nothing learned since the Bible was written can revise their understanding of anything. To take exception is what they consider “persecution.”

\\\

Still revisiting the couple dozen albums I have by Zbigniew Preisner, most of them film music. This is one of the best, despite my distaste for including songs on a soundtrack album. You can skip them. Or not.

 

Posted in Conservative Resistance, conservatives, Politics, Religion | Leave a comment

Steven Pinker, THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE, post 5

Subtitled “Why Violence Has Declined”
(Viking, Oct. 2011, xxvii + 802pp, including 106pp of notes, references, and index.)

Today, detailed notes on Chapter 6, “The New Peace”, and Chapter 7, “The Rights Revolutions”. I’ll summarize and comment on these posts throughout the week.

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Ch6, The New Peace, p295

    • Despite the downward trend of war among states, pundits these days are as gloomy as ever. Examples. Partly due to market forces among pundits, partly due to human biases that raise alarm about rare events. And partly innumeracy, e.g. not recognizing ten-fold drops in casualties (example Kinsley).
    • This chapter concerns three types of organized violence: among groups citing ‘ancient hatreds’; ethnic cleansing (genocide); and terrorism.
    • These too are all in decline.
    • First, war in the rest of the world, outside the major powers. Both data sets and graphs show reductions. We have in fact almost put an end to war, as the 60s folk songs desired. The global homicide rate is 8.8 per 100,000.
      • The wars that linger are mostly among the ‘bottom billion’, in a strip running across central Africa and into SE Asia. War and poverty reinforce each other. Many of these conflicts follow from the withdrawal of colonial rulers. And some involve ideologues with little regard to loss of their citizens, trying simply to outlast their opponents (e.g. Vietnam and China).
      • 8: “A world that is less invigorated by honor, glory, and ideology and more tempted by the pleasures of bourgeois life is a world in which fewer people are killed.”
    • Looking for reasons, see Kant’s triangle of democracy, open economies, and engagement with the international community. P310.
      • Many of these countries are bad democracies, or anocracy, rife with corruption, etc. These countries resemble the 14th century, run by thugs, 312m gangs or Mafiosi.
      • What helps are peacekeeping forces, which help reassure opposite sides that the other side isn’t cheating or planning an attack.
    • On the other hand, p316, many nonstate conflicts haven’t been tracked by historians, and so data is spotty. Such conflicts are “tribal battles, slave raids, pillaging by raiders and horse tribes, pirate attacks, and private wars by noblemen and warlords…”
    • The effects of war can be starvation and disease. But the oft-cited figure whereby civilian casualties used to be 10%, and are now 90%, is unsupportable
    • Summary p320. Wars still cause misery, and we shouldn’t see the decrease in numbers as a bright side…
    • Genocide
    • Genocide, or ‘democide’, is killing-by-category, over religious, political, or ethnic grounds. Example of course go back to the Bible, p322; Dostoyevsky; the Chinese Cultural Revolution from 1966-75.
    • How could people do these things? P323. Begin with psychology—stereotyping. Not a mental defect, but a kind of categorization indispensable to intelligence, 323b. There are statistical trends between groups. The problem is extending the generalization to individuals, especially during conflicts, Hobbes’ trio of motives—gain, fear, deterrence.
      • Native Americans; Romans against the Jews; Godfather (kill the children lest they group and come for revenge)
    • Biological metaphors; ‘bad blood’, result of evolution of the emotion of disgust (against contaminants etc) 327t, leads both to dehumanization and demonizing.
    • Summary 328: “The mind’s habit of essentialism can lump people into categories; its moral emotions can be applied to them in their entirely. The combination can transform Hobbesian competition among individuals or armies into Hobbesian competition among peoples. But genocide has another fateful component. As Solzhenitsyn pointed out, to kill by the millions you need an ideology.”
    • Thus, examples: Christianity during the Crusades; Nazism during the holocaust; Marxism with Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot.
    • These are Utopian ideologies that figure, for the perfect good, no sacrifice of people is too great. Such ideologies often hearken back to some vanished agrarian paradise, 329.4 – ‘blood and soil’ – that envisions harmony, purity, and organic wholeness. More examples. Another motive targets commercial activities, concentrated in cities; people’s intuitive economics suspect something about economic middlemen, e.g. moneylenders, thus inviting animus against them, e.g. the Jews.
    • These visions parallel the apocalyptic visions of traditional religions, e.g. how Marxism mimicked Christian doctrine, p330. How Hitler promised a thousand-year Reich.
    • Also, leaders of such ideologies tend to be narcissistic and ruthless, e.g. Mao whose crazy ideas for the Great Leap Forward resulted in millions dead of starvation. P331. Thus genocide can be triggered by individuals, and carried out by relatively few. Genocides generally end when those leaders die.
    • So how has this changed over history? Again, Bible, Homer. Puritans thanked God for wiping out natives. Cromwell, for conquering Ireland.
    • Through most of history people didn’t think there was anything wrong with genocide. The only good Indian is a dead Indian, e.g. Until after WW II, revelations of the holocaust; the word ‘genocide’ was coined in 1944. Holocaust deniers at least feel the need to deny genocide, rather than bragging about it. (Progress!)
    • Attitudes shifted largely because survivors told their stories – Anne Frank, Elie Wiesel, Primo Levi.
    • Numbers – it isn’t that genocide is ‘death by government’; it’s that a few, certain types of governments commit genocides: totalitarian ones: communist, Nazi, fascist, Islamic. In 20th century most genocides were carried out by Soviets, China, and Nazi Germany, 337t. Chart p338; after WWII, incidents dwarfed in comparison, e.g. Rwanda.
    • Studies look for risk signs of genocide, p341: history of genocide; political instability; a ruling elite from an ethnic minority; and then three predictors from the theory of the Liberal Peace: democracy; open trade; lack of exclusionary ideology. (e.g. “…forms of nationalism that demonize ethnic or religious rivals”)
    • Summary, p343, genocides in the 20th century derived from just three men: Stalin, Hitler, and Mao.

     

    • Terrorism.
    • Despite prominence in news, numbers of victims of terrorism are actually quite small – even the 3000 who died on 9/11. Compared to other causes of death.
    • Panic is the point; people react to perceived dangers (cf Kahneman et al, 345.9), which key off fathomability and dread. These can lead to distortions of public policy, e.g. 3 Mile Island. John Kerry pointed out how terrorism shouldn’t take over our lives, and was castigated, and had to apologize.
    • Terrorism isn’t new; Romans in Judea; Shia Muslims; a cult in India: Zealots, Assassins, Thugs. Anarchists who killed politicians in early 20th
    • And political violence in the 1960s and 70s, including the SLA, 347b; the IRA in Europe; etc.
    • Little known fact: terrorist groups mostly fail, and all of them die. Very few achieve their goals. They tend to disband when their leaders die or get bored. Or they escalate their tactics until they lose all sympathy with the general population.
    • What about Islam? Suicide terrorists? What motivates them?
    • Explanation of natural selection and kin selection – someone is willing to die for a cause that promotes survival of their relatives (e.g. ‘brotherly love’) or those they perceive as their compatriots – thus the strategies of military commanders to form ‘bands of brothers’ who would die for each other.
    • The promise of an afterlife, or other religious motive, isn’t so much a factor. More often it’s the promise of honor bestowed on their surviving families; their glory and esteem.
    • Any signs Islamist terrorism is burning out? Answer is yes, p358.5. Favorable opinions of terrorist groups, in the Islamic world, have plunged. Statistics show a decrease in terrorist deaths.
    • We’ll never win the ‘war on terror’ any more than we’ll ‘rid the world of evil’, as GW Bush said. But terrorist groups tend to burn out by themselves, history shows.

     

    • Where Angels Fear to Tread
    • Now four more threats. There’s no way to predict likelihood of individual events. But for these threats, we can say, “maybe, but maybe not.” Despite the continued stream of books predicting doom.
    • First, war with Islam. The Muslim world is more violent than the West; it’s as if they missed out on the Humanist Revolution, the Enlightenment. Muslims are more prone to superstitions and cultures of honor, p363.
    • What happened? In the Middle Ages, Islamic civilization was more refined that Christendom; it retained knowledge from the Greeks, and India; thus astronomy, Arabic numbers.
    • But Islamic culture never had a separation of mosque and state. It acquired Greek philosophy and math, but not its drama and history. “In chapter 4 I speculated that the Humanitarian Revolution in Europe was catalyzed by a literate cosmopolitanism, …” 365.6. Even in 2010, the Iranian government restricted university students studying humanities, which “promotes skepticism and doubt in religious principles and beliefs.”
    • However, despite the so-called ‘clash of civilizations’, there is no single Islamic civilization. Many in those countries support progressive policies; many in countries with Sharia law don’t take it literally, any more than Americans do their Bibles, p367t. “Religion thrives on woolly allegory, emotional commitments to texts that no one reads, and other forms of benign hypocrisy.”
    • And Islamic countries are increasingly exposed to the outside world, via the Internet…
    • Second, nuclear terrorism. People tend to overestimate the likelihood of various scenarios – committing the ‘conjunction fallacy’ p369. Past predictions have foretold doom within a few years or a decade, and none has come true.
    • And other WMD’s are rarely used; they’re less effective than ordinary explosives.
    • Furthermore, the steps to construct a nuclear bomb are so complex, and the components so tightly controlled, that the odds against this are very high.
    • Third, Iran. Whose leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad [until 2013] does have extremist views, including an apocalyptic war against the West. But a ‘parsimonious’ explanation is that that Bush’s calling Iran, Iraq, and North Korea the ‘axis of evil’ is what prompted N Korea, and then Iran, to develop nukes. Anyway the same kind of nuclear standoff – the certainly of Iran being destroyed if it strikes first – argues against such a war actually happening.
    • Finally, climate change – could it exacerbate these other factors? Likely not; resource scarcity seldom triggers conflicts.
    • Summary, 377: new conflicts might always break out; but it’s a mistake to think they are inevitable…

     

     

    Ch 7, The Rights Revolutions

    • Author tells anecdote about organized sports in school; he wasn’t very good, though he did like dodgeball. Which has now been banned! It’s another stage in the current diminishment of tolerance for violence… which has spread to “vulnerable classes of victims that in earlier eras fell outside the circle of protection, such as racial minorities, women, children, homosexuals, and animals.” 380.0
    • Graph p380 shows use of “civil rights” and other terms since 1960. These revolutions parallel the humanitarian revolution of two centuries earlier, and of the civilizing process, in that cultural norms formed without awareness of their rationale.
    • Thus the results of these revolutions: “The code of etiquette bequeathed by this and the other Rights Revolutions is pervasive enough to have acquired a name. We call it political correctness.”
    • Another legacy: we tend to forget past progress; activities are always pushing for the next battle to be won, as if the issue is as urgent as ever….
    • Civil Rights and the Decline of Lynching and Racial Pogroms, P382
    • Americans think of the two decades from 1948: Harry Truman, Rosa Parks, MLK, Civil Rights acts of the 1960s.
    • But it goes back to the emancipation of Negros 100 years before. In the meantime, a kind of intercommunal violence was carried out by groups like the KKK that entailed lynchings and ethnic riots called pogroms. Such events aren’t planned … long description p383.
    • Such violence has a longer history in the US – against Native Americans in the Trail of Tears; to the internment camps during WWII. 1863 draft riots (Gangs of New York). But these all began to decrease in the mid-19th Graph p384. The song ‘Strange Fruit’. The last famous lynching was Emmett Till in 1955.
    • Since 1996 the government has kept counts of ‘hate crimes’ but these are so low as to be noise against the total murder rate of 17,000/year in the US.
    • And there were no lynchings or race riots against Muslims, even after 9/11 and other events.
    • Why did these fade? Better governance, and a rise in abhorrence to violence. Whereas earlier legal policies were exclusionary, new ones were written to be anti-exclusionary – ‘remedial discrimination’ or ‘affirmative action’.
    • So have mindsets of people changed, no longer demonizing other groups. Is the US really racist to the bone? There are always social commentators who say we’ve never had it so bad, p389b. That attitudes have changed is shown by data about questions like, if a black family moved in next door, would you move? Reactions have changed over the decades. And actual beliefs have changed, e.g. that African Americans are by nature lazy or less intelligent than whites. As has religious intolerance; fewer believe theirs is the one true religion that everyone should be converted to. P392.
    • So has imagery: early films and TV with demeaning portrayals; offensive sports team names, etc.
    • These remedial actions sometimes defy logic – how to justify racial preferences if everyone is to be defined by quality? Yet most are reluctant to abandon them. 394t: “The only defense of this hypocrisy is that it may be a price worth paying for historically unprecedented levels of racial comity (though it’s in the nature of hypocrisy that one cannot say that either).”
    • This related to an issue discussed in The Blank Slate – what one takes to be innate to human nature…

     

    • Women’s Rights and the Decline of Rape and Battering
    • An example of how we can be shocked by how violence we deplore today was perceived in the past. Rape common through history, e.g. Bible, Homer, etc etc; as are proscriptions against it. Examples of how rape was the woman’s fault; rapists can buy their victims, etc. 10th commandment reduces status of women as something to be owned.
    • As laws became codified, the burden of put on the women.
    • We can understand the logic of rape via the genetic interests shaped by evolution, and the economics of human sexuality. There may even be an evolutionary advantage – not that this excuses it in any way, 396.4.
    • The second party to rape is the woman’s family, esp father, brother, husband, who have a stake in protecting her sexuality from rival males. 397.2 “In no society are women and in-laws obsessed with the virginity of grooms.”
    • Thus laws and customs treat women as property.
    • It’s in the woman’s interest to control her own sexuality (“As always, this reproductive spreadsheet is not something that a woman calculates…” 398.4)
    • Our current attitudes are shaped by the principle of autonomy, that all individuals have a right to their bodies. This idea began in 1700 when ownership of women was compared to slavery, 399t, then to the 19th amendment in 1848, and then to a 1975 bestseller by Susan Brownmiller. A reaction against the male-centric view that human nature desires instant gratification – e.g. Kubrick’s A Clockwork Orange – an idea not shared by women.
    • Pop culture now reflects this attitude; the one thing you can’t put into video games, it seems, is rape.
    • Data: rates have fallen since the 1970s, by 80%, more so than other crimes. We are all increasingly feminist, despite supposed backlashes, as with surveys about whether women should obey husbands, not work, and so on.
    • Psychology of rape revealed by comparison of porn (for men) and erotica (for women) – “Men fantasize about copulating with bodies; women fantasize about making love to people” 405.6
    • It’s PC to claim rape is about power… 405-6
    • Wife-battering – domestic violence. A kind of ‘mate-guarding’, how men control the freedom of their partners. In fact, both sexes commit violence against each other. Data shows declines.
    • Rest of world: much worse. P413. Yet author predicts things will get better, 414.

     

    • Children’s Rights and the Decline of Infanticide, Spanking, Child Abuse, and Bullying.
    • Moses, Oedipus, many others were children left outside to the elements, who later became mythological heroes – makes for a good story, and evidence of how frequently infants have been abandoned or killed throughout history. In all cultures, 415.7
    • But why would anyone kill a child? A study reached conclusions “when faced with a variety of stressful situations”
    • Solution is ‘history theory’, how mothers avoid the sunk-cost fallacy by deciding whether to commit to the additional investment of raising a child considering their other children, her circumstances, and so on. 416-7: “The forecast may be based on bad signs in the infant, such as being deformed or unresponsive, or bad signs for successful motherhood, such as being burdened with older children, beset by war or famine … [etc]”
    • A ‘natural affection’ for a newborn is not automatic; in fact post-partum depression may be a kind of evaluation period for determining whether to invest in the child. Thus many societies bestow personhood on an infant only after a few weeks or a month.
    • Still, we see this as abhorrent, as with other practices: child sacrifice, etc, or killing an infant just because it’s a girl.
    • Female infanticide is a puzzle. Some Asian societies are beset by a shortage of women. Ideally a population should maintain a 50/50 ratio.
    • Trivers proposed the idea that sons can outperform daughters in terms of offspring, in the long run, except when circumstances are poor; and this would predict that sons would be favored in good times, daughters in bad times. But in fact, no societies anywhere kill their sons.
    • It’s a free rider problem considering the population of sons and daughters, p421m. It is true that in warring tribes girls are sacrificed because more warrior sons may be desired. In advanced societies there are economic reasons, as in India and China.
    • Today, infanticide isn’t condoned and is very rare. This came about through criminalization, in the Bible despite exceptions, from the idea that all lives are owned by God, not their parents, to the point of becoming a taboo.
    • Still, some have argued that infanticide is less heinous than murder of an older child or adult, a controversial notion; still, de facto distinctions are often made to treat former cases differently from latter ones.
    • This taboo was cemented by reactions to the Holocaust, the slippery slope of deciding some classes of people are not fit to live. 424.7: “But like all taboos, the human life taboo is incompatible with certain features of reality, and fierce debates in bioethics today hinge on… “
    • For example, that humans like to have sex even in circumstances when raising children is not feasible, 424.9, and “In the absence of contraception, abortion, or an elaborate system of social welfare, many children will be born without suitable caregivers to bring them to adulthood. Taboo or no taboo, many of those newborns will end up dead.”
    • Yet for a millennium and a half, despite prohibitions, infanticide was common, examples in Middle Ages, later ways of discreetly disposing of a child, as in Dickens.
    • The reduction by today came via affluence, and technology, in the form of contraception and abortion. And the high valuation of children.
    • 427, a couple pages about abortion. Despite some predictions, the presence of abortion in recent decades has not led to a slippery slope of the cheapening of human life via euthanasia and so on. Rather it’s useful to understand how people conceive of abortion – modern sensibilities focus on moral worth in terms of consciousness, not e.g. the beating of a heart. 427.4 “The change is a part of the turning away from religious and custom and toward science and secular philosophy as a source of moral illumination.”
    • And the distaste even for legal abortion has led to a decline in them, especially in Soviet countries. Again, mostly because of contraception.
    • Child-raising in past centuries as presumed that children are depraved and must have evil beaten out of them, p429. Thus children were raised harshly, frequently beaten or otherwise harshly treated.
    • Why would parents do that? Trivers explained the parent-offspring conflict; parents must spread attention around, while for a child it’s all about him or her alone.
    • What changed? The early religious belief in innate depravity and original sin, 432.0, gave way to John Locke, in 1693, who proposed the notion that how children were raised would affect what kind of adults they became (i.e. they were blank slates). Thus sayings by Milton, Pope, Wordsworth. Then Rousseau, with the romantic notion of original innocence – children aren’t yet able to reason, and should be allowed to enjoy the innocence of youth.
    • These ideas evolved into the notion of valuing children even to the point of taking them away from abusive parents, as in 1874 case in NY.
    • And then Dr. Spock in 1946 discouraged mothers from spanking children, advice that was reinforced by others to the point that spanking is outlawed in some countries, even corporal punishment in schools. Ever since 1950… “Other than in fundamentalist Christian groups…” 435.2
    • Surveys of parents about spanking children show higher acceptance in red states, lower in blue states.
    • “The prohibition of spanking represents a stunning change from millennia in which parents were considered to own their children, and the way they treated them was considered no one else’s business. But it is consistent with other intrusions of the state into the family, such as compulsory schooling, mandatory vaccination, the removal of children from abusive homes… [etc] In one frame of mind, this meddling is a totalitarian imposition of state power into the intimate sphere of the family. But in another, it is part of the historical current toward a recognition of the autonomy of individuals. Children are people…” p437.6
    • And so child abuse is now much less tolerated, and evidently in decline despite problems with self-reporting parents. “In fact over the past two decades the lives of children and adolescents improved in just about every way you can measure.” 440.5 And 439.5 “But starting in the 1980s, a growing number of opinion leaders, celebrities, and writers of television dramas began to call attention to child abuse…” [[ fascinating to acknowledge how TV is a kind of common culture that can affect actual culture – and to see how some see such themes as the concerns of liberal elites. In this age of the internet, has this commonality been fragmented to pieces? ]]
    • And bullying. Examples of movies and comics that depict bullies. Now bullying is targeted for elimination, perhaps accidentally by rumors of what motivated the Columbine shooters. The moral case against it is ironclad: children shouldn’t be able to get away with behavior proscribed in adults.
    • So children’s lives are far better. Yet efforts to protect children from violence are veering into the realm of sacrament and taboo.
    • Thus the so-called Nurture Assumption – that a parent can take control of a child’s life and mold them however they like. This isn’t true; children are socialized by their peer groups, not their parents; it takes a village, p443.6. Despite which, the idea has led to helicopter parents, to extreme reactions to minor violations in school, to whitewashing old movies. Now some children aren’t allowed to play outside, let alone to walk to school; mothers have been vilified. 444b nice summary para.
    • And fear of kidnapping by predators has led to photos of missing children on milk cartons, amber alerts, and much else. Despite the data: such incidents are extremely rare. Life is a series of trade-offs, and some precautions result in harm that would otherwise not occur…

     

    • Gay Rights, the Decline of Gay-Bashing, and the Decriminalization of Homosexuality. P447
    • Case of Alan Turing, who saved Western Civilization but who was arrested and committed suicide… for having sex with a man.
    • Since Leviticus there has been animus to gay people, and violence, despite there being nothing in it for the aggressor.
    • Same-sex behavior is understandable in some situations (ships, prisons, etc., 448m), but how to explain the orientation? It’s PC to say it’s nature, not nurture. Which however, many traditional societies disapprove of it (“These beliefs may be products of the cross-wiring between disgust and morality that leads people to confuse visceral revulsion with objective sinfulness.” 449.5)
    • The Enlightenment led to questioning visceral impulses and religious dogma. Jeremy Bentham proposed in 1785 that no harm is done and so homosexuality is not immoral; it began legalized in France and some other countries, and in the US since 1960. Still, there are countries that punish it by death, 450.
    • The US trend was triggered by Stonewall, and how the rise of AIDS led celebrities to reveal themselves; gay themes appeared in TV and movies; more Americans became accepting—liberals more often than conservatives [of course].
    • Trends in tolerance especially among the young—to whom is often doesn’t matter whether it’s natural or chosen. 453t.
    • Hate-crime laws have led to prosecution of violence against homosexuals, though it not clear if rates of murders and assaults – already quite low, as rates – have declined in the past two decades. In any event, government violence against gays has decreased in many parts of the world…

     

    • Animals Rights and the Decline of Cruelty to Animals
    • Author describes experiment he was told to do in grad school – leaving a rat overnight to press a lever to avoid a shock. The rat died.
    • Since the 1980s, strict regulations have governed how lab animals are treated.
    • This right movement is different than the others, because it’s based only on ethical principles, not on reciprocation.
    • Of course humans have killed animals throughout history for their meat. For 2 million years, perhaps. And had no reason to treat them decently. Same was true for pets.
    • The Bible, of course, states that animals exist for human purposes, Genesis; and how God is pleased by roasting beef, p458. Greece and Rome weren’t much better; Aquinas also judged that animals existed purely for man’s use. Early modern philosophers presumed that animals had no souls, thus felt no pain; Descartes; modern neuroscience disagrees.
    • Animals were dissected live, p459.0, .8. Agriculture treated them little better.
    • Various motives for treating animals better emerged, though seldom for animals’ benefit. Some were uncomfortable with eating meat, considering meat-eating with the disgust end of the disgust-purity continuum, 461t.
    • Other issues involved blood sports, 461b, Jewish dietary laws, 462t, more about the feelings of the observer.
    • Vegetarianism was named after Pythagoras until the 1840s; but the Nazis were also vegetarians, 462b.
    • Arguments for animal rights emerged in the 18th and 19th Science: Descartes; Voltaire; Jeremy Bentham’s insistence that animals do suffer; Darwin’s theory made that make sense. These ideas waned in the early 20th century, until the 1970s, with books by Ruth Harrison and Peter Singer – Animal Liberation; The Expanding Circle.
    • Changes came in several ways:
      • Protection of lab animals;
      • The outlawing of blood sports, even bullfighting in most places; the decrease of hunting; release fishing; movie advisories about ‘no animals were harmed….’
      • Demand for meat remains – few are vegetarians – but there is increased demand for chicken, etc.; everyplace has vegetarian options these days; hopes for cultured meat; vegetarians has tripled, though, since 1985; and animals treated more humanely [free range chickens etc]
    • How far will these trends go? It’s unlikely meat-hunger will go completely away. And it’s naïve to think the values of humans will be matched to those of animals.
    • But: 474.8, “Should we arrange for the gradual extinction of carnivorous species, or even genetically engineer them into herbivores?”

     

    • Whence the Rights Revolution?
    • All these movements have occurred over the past 50 years – even though in many ways they go against human nature 475.3, and have been ratified into law by the Abrahamic religions 475.5.
    • Thus, 475.6, “the Rights Revolutions show that a moral way of life often requires a decisive rejection of instinct, culture, religion, and standard practice. In their place is an ethics that is inspired by empathy and reason and stated in the language of rights.”
    • These have been liberal revolutions, distributed along a gradient that runs from Western Europe, US blue states, US red states, then to democracies of Latin America and Asian, then authoritarian countries, then Africa and most of the Islamic world, 475b.
    • 476t, “In every issue touched by the Rights Revolutions [examples] … the attitudes of conservatives have followed the trajectory of liberals, with the result that today’s conservatives are more liberal than yesterday’s liberals.” [[ excellent point that I’ve made myself ]]
    • What brought these about? What exogenous factors? Democratic governments, in part.
    • Best candidate for single cause: “the technologies that made ideas and people increasingly mobile.” 477.4, with summary of electronics and travel advances. And the explosion in book publishing – see 477.6
    • How did this work? Because the spread of ideas resulted in the “debunking of ignorance and superstition” p477.7. Also, the exposure to the viewpoints of people unlike oneself – the reports in books about the Holocaust, etc etc. And third, the existence of “large catchment area of innovations” 478.6, as Diamond showed in Guns Germs and Steel.
    • 478.3: “It is also an intellectual agility – literally a kind of intelligence – which encourages one to step outside the parochial constraints of one’s birth and station, to consider hypothetical worlds, and to reflect back on the habits, impulses, and institutions and govern one’s beliefs and values.” [[ science fiction !!! ]]
    • Moral progress may parallel such technological progress; big example p479-80 about Martin Luther King, who grew up on the Bible, read theologians who challenged it, read the classic and modern philosophers, and heard Mordecai Johnson and learned about Gandhi – then choosing Gandhi’s strategy over Jesus’, about non-violence. King’s historical 1963 speech inspired the other rights movements, and their remarkable lack of violence they employed or provoked, compared to other historical shifts.

     

    • This ends six chapters documenting the historical decline of violence.
    • Next: psychology. How to understand the moral universe with science.
Posted in Book Notes, Steven Pinker | Leave a comment

The Human Struggle to Overcome Tribalism and Superstition

  • Revisiting Steven Pinker, and how the human race has struggled to escape tribalism and superstition (and violence) by way of progressive policies that conservatives to this day still resist;
  • Adam Lee on the continued secularization of American society;
  • How Christianity is struggling with empathy;
  • And how Trump demonizes anyone he thinks is not compatible with his idea of “Western Civilization”;
  • And how loyalty trumps everything else, in the matter of Pete Hegseth.
– – –

This week I’m revisiting Steven Pinker’s 2011 book THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURES, in part to catch up posting here notes on substantial books I’ve but not yet posted about, and in part to revisit one of the central books that has formed my worldview. I go on and on about the spectrum of human nature and the endpoints of conservativism and progressivism. At the extremes, cave-man tribalism, vs. a sort of science-fictional utopianism. The history of the human race has been a struggle to break away from the mentality of ancient humanity and find better goals and meanings for life than stultifying tradition and inter-tribal animus.

This struggle is progressing. For every giant step backwards of an administration like Trump’s, a century from now we’ll be five steps forward. (Or extinct, perhaps. I don’t rule that out, I’m just extrapolating from the past.)

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So. On the one hand…

OnlySky, Adam Lee, 1 Dec 2025: American religion continues its long fadeout, subtitled “Another milestone in the secularization of humanity.”

Religion is in decline all around the world. The empirical evidence proves this to be true. Even if preachers and proselytizers are loud and inescapable, even if they wield a disproportionate share of political influence, their numbers continue to shrink.

The numbers of atheists, agnostics and generally nonreligious people have been growing for years. As a share of the U.S. population, they now outnumber every single religious denomination. As of 2021, for the first time ever, less than half of Americans belong to a church, synagogue, mosque or other organized house of worship.

Even among those who still identify as religious, the intensity of their belief is declining. Increasingly fewer people say that religion is an important part of their lives.

There’s a new poll on this topic, and it comes with a whopper of a title: Drop in U.S. Religiosity Among Largest in World.

As Gallup notes, poorer countries tend to score higher on religiosity, whereas nearly all countries grow less religious as they become wealthier, more democratic, and more stable.

This line of evidence supports what we might call the “opiate of the masses” theory: the purpose of religion is to be a psychological bulwark in a chaotic world. It’s a way for people to cope with dangers that are out of their control. By teaching—in spite of all available evidence—that the universe is ruled by a just and benevolent power, and promising the faithful a blissful afterlife where they’ll be recompensed for every pain and injustice they suffer now, it offers a source of hope when hope is hard to find elsewhere.

However, the more people work together to make this world a better place, the more religion starts to seem unnecessary. When war, disease and hunger recede as everyday threats; when liberal democracy gives people a greater sense of control over their own destinies, rather than people feeling like they’re helpless before the whims of fate; when people become more educated, more prosperous, and more able to look towards the future with optimism—then they have less need of the mental and emotional crutches of belief.

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And on the other hand…

As Pinker and others note repeatedly, part of the way the world becomes more prosperous and peaceful is that interconnectedness leads to empathy, the understanding that other people around the world are, to a large degree, just like you. So naturally Christians, who claim the values of Jesus but who act more like tribalists who demonize the ‘other’ — as Trump seems to do every day — are skeptical about empathy.

Axios, Russell Contreras, 30 Nov 2025: Empathy is the new Christian battleground

I don’t subscribe to this site so I can only quote the first couple lines:

As the U.S. grows more diverse, a quiet civil war is unfolding within American Christianity over who deserves empathy.

Why it matters: Conservatives ranging from evangelical pastors to Elon Musk have started framing empathy not as a virtue but as a vulnerability on immigration, racial justice and LGBTQ+ rights.

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And then there’s Elon Musk, some months ago, as in this article: The Guardian, 8 Apr 2025: Loathe thy neighbor: Elon Musk and the Christian right are waging war on empathy, subtitled “Trump’s actions are irreconcilable with Christian compassion. But an unholy alliance seeks to cast empathy as a parasitic plague”

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This is where Trump and MAGA are now.

LA Times, Gustavo Arellano, 2 Dec 2025: Trump’s message to ‘nice’ Americans: You’re all illegal now

On Thanksgiving evening, as Americans offered grace for their blessings and feasted with loved ones, President Trump’s contribution to the country’s dinner table was the digital equivalent of a flaming turd pie.

On social media, he published a screed that drew from his tried-and-true playbook — personal insults against political enemies, slanders against immigrants, oscillating between calling his opponents “nice” and “STUPID.”

This time, though, Trump went lower and nastier than he has ever gone before — no, really.

Freely switching between “refugee,” “foreign national,” “migrant” and “illegal,” he declared immigration “the leading cause of social dysfunction in America” and insisted that “only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation.”

That’s an idea the farthest fringes of the American right have preached going back to the days of slavery, when some wanted freed Black people sent back to Africa, lest they poison democracy. In recent years, it’s been proposed by so-called Heritage Americans who insist the United States rightfully — and only — belongs to folks whose ancestors were roughing it on the frontier back in the days when passenger pigeons blotted out the sun.

But don’t sit too comfy if you can trace your family back to William Bradford. Trump also wrote that he wants a “major reduction” in “disruptive populations” — “anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country … or non-compatible with Western Civilization.”

He seems to be equated Western Civilization with American white supremacy.

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And finally, keying off recent news, there is tribal loyalty so strong it stands in defiance of law, competence, and expertise.

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On the one hand, in a truly educated population, religious belief might eventually become as foreign to the adult mind as belief in Santa Claus. On the other hand, education is a constant, Sisyphean task, without which it’s easy for a new generation to grow up uneducated, especially if confined to a religious bubble, and subject to all the biases and illusions of human nature that give rise to religious belief in the first place.

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Steven Pinker, THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE, post 4

Subtitled “Why Violence Has Declined”
(Viking, Oct. 2011, xxvii + 802pp, including 106pp of notes, references, and index.)

Here, a full eight years after I began, I’ll finish posting my outline and notes on Steven Pinker’s 2011 book. This is not, I stress again, a dry treatise about rates of violence over the centuries, but rather virtually a history of the human race, considering how the forces that have changed it have brought about a more peaceful and enlightened world. (And his almost-as-substantial follow-up book, ENLIGHTENMENT NOW, 2018, extends this book’s case.)

If there’s a grand theme of the book I can boil down into one sentence, it’s not about violence per se, it’s about how forces we would now call progressive have, throughout history, improved the human condition. And my observation: that these are forces that many conservatives to this day resist.

Earlier:

A couple key quotes from early in the book are posted here, at the bottom of the page.

Post 1 has some more quotes, and the outline of the book from the Introduction.

Post 2 covers part of Chapter 1, “A Foreign Country,” summarizing examples of violence from Homer, The Old Testament, and the New Testament.

Post 3 covers the rest of Chapter 1, from medieval knights to early modern Europe (with violence in Shakespeare and Grimm), honor culture with duels, and the decline of martial culture in the 20th century. Then Chapter 2 is about “The Pacification Process,” in which the motivations for violence were more-or-less solved by Hobbes’ “Leviathan,” a government that retained a monopoly on the use of force. Chapter 3 is about “The Civilizing Process,” how movements into cities decreased violence, how primitive cultures of honor gave way to cultures of dignity, as people adopted greater self-control and empathy in order to live together in larger and larger groups. And why violence persists in some social classes, why it rose in the 1960s and decreased in the 1990s, and why the perceived coarseness of modern life is a sign of progress, not social decay.

What’s notable about this next chapter, that describes the kinds of violence humans have committed on each other, and the reforms that led to their decline, is how many of those reforms modern conservatives still denounce.

Part 4: The Humanitarian Revolution

Voltaire: “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.”

  • Author begins by describing a museum of torture, in Italy, with a range of devices that were common in the Middle Ages. Their use was not hidden, as is torture in modern times. Quote from p132.2:
    • Medieval Christendom was a culture of cruelty. Torture was meted out by national and local governments throughout the Continent, and it was codified in laws that prescribed blinding, branding, amputation of hands, ears, noses, and tongues….
  • p132.7:
    • Most of the infractions that sent a person to the rack or the stake were nonviolent, and today many are not even considered legally punishable, such as heresy, blasphemy, apostasy, criticism of the government, gossip, scolding, adultery, and unconventional sexual practices.
  • And torture-executions were popular entertainment. Nor were such practices limited to Europe; 133.7: “all of the first complex civilizations were absolutist theocracies which punished victimless crimes with torture and mutilation.”
  • This chapter about how things have changed and why. It happened beginning in the Age of Reason in the 17th century, and crested with the Enlightenment at the end of the 18th. Some of this progress came about through explicit arguments; some by changes in sensibilities: people began to sympathize with others, were no longer indifferent to their suffering. “A new ideology coalesced from these forces, one that placed life and happiness at the center of values, and that used reason and evidence to motivate the design of institutions. The new ideology may be called humanism or human rights, and its sudden impact on Western life in the second half of the 18th century may be called the Humanitarian Revolution” p133.7
  • Even now some sneer at the Enlightenment; some wish for the return of the “moral clarity of medieval Catholicism”… but recall the horrors which the Enlightenment put to an end.
  • This happened around two moments in history: the American Declaration of Independence in 1776 and the French Declaration of the Rights of Man in 1789; and in the mid-20th century, with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948 and the various rights revolutions that followed.
  • Several sections then review institutionalized violence through history:
    • P134: Human sacrifice: “the killing of an innocent person to slake a deity’s thirst for blood.” Bible stories. The practice died out among the Jews, “but it survived as an ideal in one of its breakaway sects, which believed that God accepted the torture-sacrifice of an innocent man in exchange for not visiting a worse fate on the rest of humanity. The sect is called Christianity.” P134.8
    • It has been seen in all the major civilizations; many examples. ‘Burial sacrifice,’ in which the retinue and harem of an Indian king would be buried along with him, lasted until 1829. “What were these people thinking?” author asks; one idea is that pain and death were so common among ancient peoples, that life was not much valued. What kind of god would create such a world? A sadistic god…
    • In most places human sacrifice died out on its own; people observed that such sacrifices did not accomplish anything, or as life became more predictable, lives became more valuable.
    • Supernatural explanations for misfortune shifted from sadistic gods to individuals wielding supernatural forces: witches. Certain mental biases lead people to perceive causes where none are present; and it can be handy to blame a despised in-law, say, for some misfortune. Witch hunts are eventually vulnerable to common sense; e.g. how anyone can be made to confess to anything through sufficient torture. The last woman burned as a witch in Europe was in 1749.
    • Two pressures at work: one, that things just happen without being due to the designs of conscious beings (p139.4: “A great principle of moral advancement, on a part with ‘Love thy neighbor’ and ‘All men are created equal,’ is the one on the bumper sticker: ‘Shit happens.’”)
    • And that increased value of human life and happiness…
    • P139: Violence against blasphemers, heretics, and apostates: A danger of unverifiable beliefs is the temptation to defend them by violent means, p140t:
      • People become wedded to their beliefs, because the validity of those beliefs reflects on their competence, commends them as authorities, and rationalizes their mandate to lead. Challenge a person’s beliefs, and you challenge his dignity, standing, and power. And when those beliefs are based on nothing but faith, they are chronically fragile. No one gets upset about the beliefs that rocks fall down as opposed to up, because all sane people can see it with their own eyes. Not so for the belief that babies are born with original sin or that God exists in three persons or that Ali was the second-most divinely inspired man after Muhammed. When people organize their lives around these beliefs, and then learn of other people who seem to be doing just fine without them – or worse, who credibly rebut then – they are in danger of looking like fools. Since one cannot defend a belief based on faith by persuading skeptics it is true, the faithful are apt to react to unbelief with rage, and may try to eliminate that affront to everything that makes their lives meaningful.
    • Estimates of the human toll of Christian persecutions, using studied by R.J. Rummel:
      • The Crusades from 1095 to 1208: 1 million
      • 13th century Albigensian heresy, by the Cathars of southern France: 200,000; they were exterminated by the king of France
      • The Inquisitions of the 15th to early 18th centuries: 350,000
      • Protestants, after the Reformation, who were persecuting and persecuted others themselves; Martin Luther; Calvinism: the European Wars of Religion, 1520 to 1648: 5.75 million (given population at the time, in the range of WW II deaths)
    • These wars ended with the Peace of Westphalia, in 1648, as local princes were allowed to decide themselves if they were Protestant or Catholic.
    • What caused this to happen at this time? Perhaps a higher value on human life; a shift from valuing souls to valuing lives; the beginning of the Age of Reason; the awareness that human knowledge is fragile, including about the divine; the absurdity of different people being certain of their mutually incompatible beliefs, 144t. Arguments by Spinoza, Milton, Newton, Locke; reflected in Shakespeare, Bacon.
    • P144, Cruel and Unusual Punishments
    • Even without superstition and dogmas as pretexts for torture, cruel punishments continued because people enjoyed them! Cat burning, watching a man be quartered. Pillorying, flogging, were public spectacles.
    • Things began to change in the 18th century, as Voltaire and others attacked them, and Christians as hypocrites for pursuing them. A 1764 bestseller railed against excessive punishment; the church banned it. Yet rates of judicial torture fell in the 18th century, to virtually zero by 1850, p149.
    • P149, Capital Punishment.
    • Even in the early 1800s, there were hundreds of capital offenses; estimates are that from Jesus to the 20th century, 19 million people were executed for trivial offenses. By now virtually all nations have abolished it, and the number of offenses has plummeted for the few that remain. The US opposed a UN moratorium against it, though many states within the US have in fact abolished it. And the means have changed: rather than burning at the stake, or hanging, gas, electric, or lethal injections are used. Where once it was thought such punishments were necessary to maintain a functional society, as it’s turned out, we get along just fine without them, 153t.
    • P153, Slavery. For most of history, slavery was the rule, not the exception: see Bible, Athens, Rome, the Slavs in the Middle Ages. Africans enslaved other Africans; the European slave trade killed some 1.5 million. A few nations didn’t abolish it until the ‘60s, or 1980.
    • Slavery was better than massacre. Why did it stop? Both economic and humanitarian concerns. Britain outlawed it in 1807. Locke wrote about it in 1689. Still, slavery was defended because Bible, 155; these defenses withered as stories were told, from experience or in fiction (Frederick Douglass; Harriet Beecher Stowe). US abolished in in 1865, the 13th Trend was from 1800 to now, chart p156.
    • Similar was the practice of debt bondage, where debtors were thrown in prison; abolished in the US by 1840, in Europe by 1870s. Other ways were found, e.g. bankruptcy, to deal with penury.
    • Today slavery remains only in a few isolated areas, as ‘trafficking’.
    • Two other violent trends remained common: tyranny, and wars between major states.
    • P158, Despotism and Political Violence. Governments, almost by definition, are institutions that hold monopolies on the legitimate use of violence. All early complex states were despotisms in the sense that the heads of their societies could murder subjects arbitrary and with impunity: examples of many cultures, of Henry VIII, of King Solomon, Scheherazade.
    • And most transfers of power were through political murders.
    • But this declined by the 17th and 18th The idea came that government was like a gadget, a piece of technology that could be tweaked to bring about desired results. Hobbes, Spinoza, Locke, and others theorized about this; they influenced the American founders, who established the separation of powers, since men are not angels; they gave the government a mission statement limiting its powers, and encouraging commerce; and created a way to make it upgradable. English implementation was weak; French disastrous; US flawed.
    • P161, Major War. Through most of history, conquest was what governments did. Some people had qualms, as far back as 5th century BC in China, Mozi; Isaiah p162; Jesus preached a pacifist movement that became militant when Constantine adopted it for the Rome.
    • There were two reasons war persisted. First, the other-guy problem: if you gave up war, you were at the mercy of other nations that hadn’t. And second, militant forces within a country could defeat official pacifism.
    • Satire served to mock war; Falstaff; Swift in Gulliver’s Travels. Pascal, Voltaire.
    • Then appeared theories of ‘gentle commerce’, that it was better for nations to trade and become rich rather than plunder each other. Quakers; Kant. Kant proposed three conditions, in 1795 “Perpetual Peace”, for nations to overcome human nature and achieve peace: democracy; an international league of nations; and world citizenship, so people could move freely from nation to nation.
    • P168, Whence the Humanitarian Revolution? It’s not easy to explain how and why these changes took place. Sometimes through moral agitators and public debate, sometimes as public sensibilities changed, as e.g. the idea of smoking in offices and classrooms in recent decades.
    • The effect was that people reacted more about the suffering of other living things. But what exogenous change brought it about?
    • One candidate is the Civilizing Process, which entailed hygiene and manners; people became less repulsive. But these changes occurred centuries before, 170.6.
    • Or, people’s lives improved. This too has problems, p171.
    • Another candidate is that book production rose sharply in the 1600s, and literacy spread. Novels became popular. People could read by themselves, and could read secular material. Explorations and discoveries of the scientific revolution gave people more to read about. The ‘pokey little world of village and clan’ gave way to riches of ideas, p174b.
    • P175, The Rise of Empathy and the Regard for Human Life. Peter Singer has argued that over the course of history, people have enlarged the range of beings whose interests they value. Why? Perhaps the rise of literacy. Reading is a technology for perspective-taking, 175.3, for seeing another’s viewpoint, and thence reflecting that one’s own life and ways of doing things aren’t necessarily the only ways. Novels became mass entertainment; they were about ordinary people, not about the heroes or saints in earlier epics. [[ this is a key point ]]
    • Three bestsellers in particular, in the 1700s, were about female protagonists; they drove grown men to tears. The clergy denounced them, of course, 176b [ with complaints that echo religious scolds of today ].
    • And in later centuries, many novels and memoirs triggered social change – list p177: Stowe, Dickens, many others.
    • P177, The Republic of Letters and Enlightenment Humanism. These technologies led to a global campus, a public sphere, what today we achieve through the internet, what in a 1988 were identified as jet travel, telephones, and the xerox machine, but which two centuries ago were present in the sailing ship, the printed book, and the postal service. Information and people became portable. New ideas came from interaction with others. No one person is smart enough to figure out anything worthwhile from scratch, 178m. Newton stood on shoulders. Bizarre ideas suffered exposure, as to sunlight. Ideas were tested and debated.
    • This took place especially in cities—e.g. Amsterdam. Urbanization and democracy. Tyrants understand that speech must be suppressed.
    • And that so many violent institutions faded within a short span, was due to the philosophy that emerged of ‘enlightenment humanism’ 180.7, in which the spread of ideas led to a process of moral discovery.
    • Outline of this process, 180.9ff: First, skepticism. Dismiss faith, revelation, tradition, dogma, authority, 180b. Second, we are conscious, and committed to reason; we can’t *prove* anything, but we are entitled to have *confidence* in some beliefs about it. Thus science. People are still subject to passions and illusions; but they are capable of reason. Famous Lincoln quote, about fooling people.
    • We can infer that other people reason and feel in the ways we do; and thus we can conclude there is a universal human nature, and this is the basis for morality (not any arbitrary regulations written in a holy book 182b). We can further deduce several things: that a government is good because anarchy is worse, and so on: the result is ‘humanism’ because the flourishing of humans is the one value that cannot be denied. This may be banal and obvious? Because we are children of the Enlightenment. This idea is not necessarily atheistic, but it doesn’t not require any supernatural input, 183m, nor does it require secular ideas like prestige of nation or race, manliness, honor, etc.
    • Still these ideas have not spread across the world. There are two reasons this philosophy has been rejected across much of the world.
    • P184, Civilization and Enlightenment. After the Enlightenment came the French Revolution. Cause and effect? Some think so, though such revolutions have been common in history. But the first counter-enlightenment came with thinkers like Edmund Burke, who held a tragic view of human nature: that civilization exists to keep individuals from falling into anarchy, and social institutions, no matter how contingent or indefensible, exist for that reason. And people aren’t smart enough to create a society from first principles. He went too far, but he had a point; democracy is difficult to impose in developing societies that have not outgrown superstitions, warlords, and feuding tribes, 185m.
    • Americans, on the other hand, understood about human nature enough to build guards into the Declaration and Constitution.
    • Pinker’s earlier book The Blank Slate argues that these two extreme versions of human nature – a tragic vision resigned to its flaws, and a utopian vision that denies it exists – are both wrong. The better way is through science, which uses rationality to continually revise.
    • P186, Blood and Soil. A second counter-enlightenment movement came in the Germany: the idea that individuals exist only as part their culture with its myths and symbols. Traditional beliefs serve a purpose, and cosmopolitanism undermines this purpose; thus rationality is out, romanticism, intuition, are in. To these thinkers, violence is not a problem to be solved. These ideas led to much sublime music and poetry. And also to militant nationalism known as ‘blood and soil,’ romantic militarism, Marxist socialism, and national socialism.

Ch5, The Long Peace, p189

  • Two British scholars made predictions in the 1950s: Toynbee, that future wars were likely; and Richardson, not a historian, who studied weather statistics, data, and suggested that future wars were not inevitable. Turned out he was right, Toynbee was wrong.
  • P190, Statistics and Narratives. There are many ways to fit curves to data. Even if WWII was the most destructive event in history, it doesn’t tell us anything. The second half of the century was peaceful. WWII might have been the latest in an escalating series; it might be part of a cycle; it might be random, figures p191-2.
  • This chapter is about long term trends in war, trends being: no cycles; lots of randomness; an escalation recently reversed; declines in other dimensions of war, p192. We need both statistics and narratives to understand these.
  • P193, Was the 20th Century Really the Worst? Not necessarily; the population was bigger, and we tend to overestimate trends from familiar events (historical myopia, or the availability heuristic, p193b). Thus, if we scale historical events to the sizes of population at the time, we get the top 21 events, p195, ranked with WWII in 9th placed, and an 8th century An Lushan Revolt in first place.
  • Of course we don’t always have good data, or any data, for historical events.
  • (Aside about Genghis Khan, and how many in the modern population have his genes. Hard to argue that war isn’t instrumental in some kind of competition for survival… p196b)
  • A figure plotting the top 100, p197, shows that the worst events are evenly scattered across history. Again, we’re likely missing many events, especially those that fall between crime and war.
  • P200: Statistics: The Timing of Wars. Richardson compiled data on 315 “deadly quarrels”, using various assumptions and corrections. And made three generalizations…
  • First, a detour concerning probability, p202, with example about lightning; the next strike is most likely tomorrow. It’s example of a Poisson process, in which events are random and independent, like rolling dice. The result is that randomness comes in clusters—because it’s less likely that events would be evenly spaced out, 203m.
  • Other examples of the cluster illusion: the London Blitz (subject of Pynchon novel); gambler’s fallacy; the birthday paradox; constellations (unlike evenly spaced worms) [[ My thought: how most SF films make the stars evenly spaced, moreso than they actually are ]]; and Richardson’s data, p205, of war durations across time – random in the same way.
  • Thus his conclusion is that wars are random; they don’t reveal any pattern or historical narrative; war is not an itch that must be scratched eventually.
  • Still, this doesn’t mean the probability of the events (wars starting) is steady over time; a process with a drifting probability is called nonstationary. Data indicate no cycles of changing periodicity.
  • We still tend to exaggerate the narrative coherence of history. Was the most important person of the 20th century the guy who triggered WWI? And likely no WWII without Hitler; i.e. there was no force building to war.
  • So: has the probability of war changed over time? Richardson’s data was biased, and he didn’t live to experience the current long peace. Yet he concluded that the probability had decreased, slightly, since 1820. And further, that wars became less frequent—but more lethal.
  • P210, Statistics: The Magnitude of Wars. His second discovery: the number of quarrels of each magnitude is tightly related to the number of deaths per quarrel – plotted log-log, a straight line, p211. That is, very violent wars are rare; with every tenfold jump in the death toll, there are as third as many, p211. This is a ‘power-law’ distribution. Later data sets show the same pattern. (Other examples: word frequency; distribution of incomes, p213.) This is different than, say, a Gaussian distribution, or bell curve, as a plot of the height of men. Whereas a plot of city sizes is L-shaped, 214, then when plotted as logs, becomes a straight line.
  • Thus: there’s no such thing as a ‘typical war’. The distribution is scale-free. And they have a nonnegligible number of extreme values. That is, extreme values are unlikely, but not astronomically unlikely, 215b. E.g., an enormously deadly war.
  • So why are wars so distributed? First we can conclude that size doesn’t matter—the chances of an escalation are independent of size. Do they exhibit preferential attachment, the so-called Matthew Effect, the rich get richer, 216b? No, data doesn’t support this. Or ideas from the science of complex systems, like criticality. Wars are often wars of attrition, one of those paradoxical situations in game theory, 217b; the loser pays too (as in eBay? Really?) – a Pyrrhic victory. In these situations there’s an advantage in displaying determination; thus the idea of loss aversion, 219m, where people keep investing despite already having lost time or money. Many wars show this irrational strategy, 219b.
  • People are also subject to Weber’s Law: a change is noticeable only as a constant proportion to the existing rate or density, p220.
  • Next, which is worse, many small wars or a few big ones? P220. The answer: peaks at both extremes, p221. Also: the proportion of deaths caused by all deadly quarrels is… 1.6%. …
  • P222, The Trajectory of Great Power War. Can we say more now about how the probability of wars, and the damage they cause, have changed over time? Great powers are usually involved. A plot of how often great powers fought each other, since 1500, shows the rate tailing off, p224; other plots show similar drops.
  • P228, The Trajectory of European War. We have more data on Europe; the Conflict Catalog of some 4560 conflicts. Again we see drops, with spikes for the world wars and the wars of religion in the 17th From here we switch to narrative history…from various historians, 231m. summary preview p231.5
  • P231, The Hobbesian Background and the Ages of Dynasties and Religions. Europe has had roughly 2 wars per year for 1100 years. War was seen as the natural order of things. Motives were the three identified by Hobbes: predation, preemption of predation by others, and credible deterrence or honor, 232.3. We can group these wars or periods into five ‘ages’:
    • Age of Dynasties, 1400-1559, p233. Problems arise from designating a successor as a firstborn son, say; fathers can die young, sons may not be too bright, and so on p233.
    • Age of Religions, 1559 to 1648. Rival religions fought for influence, showing no mercy to followers of other religions. Issues were nonnegotiable.
  • 235, Three Currents in the Age of Sovereignty. By 1648 Europe was organized into sovereign states. There were fewer units to fight, and so fewer wars; the logic of Leviathan, 235. Yet wars got more lethal, as militaries got improved weaponry, and were organized into standing armies.
    • Age of Sovereignty, 1648-1789, saw a calming as some powers gave up war for commercial pursuits, religious fervor diminished, and so on, as part of the Humanitarian Revolution.
  • 238, Counter-Enlightenment Ideologies and the Age of Nationalism
    • Age of Nationalism, 1789, with the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars, various movements in Europe, culminating in 1917 with WWI.
    • Age of Ideology, as the US got involved and democracy fought it out with communism.
  • Another way is to see the past two centuries as a struggle among four forces: Enlightenment humanism, conservatism, nationalism, and utopian ideologies, 239t. The French combined nationalism and utopian ideology, 239m. Then followed the counter-E’s, one inspired by Burke, the other tied by blood and soil. Etc, long sequence. Hegelian doctrine: history is the working out of a divine plan, leading to the emergence of superior states… 241t. Leading to the notion of self-determination of peoples, even though nation and people are not the same.
  • Also in the 19th century: romantic militarism, the idea that war itself is a noble pursuit, e.g. quotes p242; without war there is materialism and indolence, 243t. Even anti-war thinkers thought it had its benefits. All of this culminated in WWI, smry 244m.
  • 244, Humanism and Totalitarianism in the Age of Ideology. The Enlightenment critique of war never went away and became the anti-war movement of the 19th and early 20th centuries, with many thinkers 245m, bestsellers in 1889 and 1909, one arguing that war was economically futile, 245b, who became more or less right. WWI was the first ‘literary war’ with many works following it, by Eliot, Hemingway, and others, 246b, which encouraged audiences to empathize, e.g. 247t. The films Duck Soup, The Great Dictator, 248. Aversion to war became common. Hitler was exploited that sentiment.
  • 249, The Long Peace: Some Numbers. The most interesting statistic: zero. The number of times nuclear weapons have been used (since 1945). The atomic clock. The number of times the superpowers have fought on the battlefield. Number of times any great powers have fought each other. And so on: several other examples.
  • These are the result of a psychological turning, a change in the cognitive categorization of war. True, wars are still being fought. And the long peace is not a perpetual peace. There is no fever waiting for war to break out. It’s possible we’re just in a lucky streak, but probably not. Scholars have noticed, 253b, and quotes 254.
  • 255, Attitudes and Events. Further evidence: military conscription has declined, as has the number of military personnel.
  • And we have a set of sanity checks of how components of a war-friendly mindset went out of fashion, 257b. Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which repudiated the values of collective good in favor of individual good. Another contributor: the freezing of international borders, taking territorial expansion off the table. Israel is an exception. Another ideal that faded: honor, p261. Better to back down, with examples, notably the Cuban missile crisis.
  • Another, p263, popular resistance to leaders’ plans for war: demonstrations, with lists of popular films and songs. US military policy became more cautious. Military attitudes changed, with long story about the ethical warrior. Even the Afghan and Iraq wars are quite different, with fewer deaths and more drones and news focused on civilian deaths (5300 during a period in Afghanistan; 800,000 in Vietnam). Attitudes more extreme in Europe, where governments are no longer about the security of the nation, so much as the welfare of the people.
  • 268, Is the Long Peace a Nuclear Peace? What went right? Why has there been no nuclear war? Is it just the terror of the bomb? And is the nuclear peace the cause of the long peace? Not really. Previous terrible weapons never halted war. Countries without the bomb no longer fight wars either. There is a ‘nuclear taboo’ against use of such weapons as being a breach in history. The taboo was slow to build, but eventually use of such weapons became unthinkable.
  • We can still worry about all the nuclear states. Proliferation has not proceeded as fast as was worried. P272. Several countries have even given up nuclear weapons, p273. The history of poison gas offers a parallel case. Can we get rid of them entirely? It’s been proposed, with the Global Zero movement.
  • 278, Is the Long Peace a Democratic Peace? Again, is there an exogenous variable to explain the peace? Recall Kant’s essay, and his condition of democracy. Is this the cause? There are two items in support. The trend lines match. And, is it true that no two democracies have ever fought? Well, no, see list p280, though maybe not all of those were democracies. But maybe that’s cherry-picking the data. Also, democracies don’t behave as nicely as Kant thought they would. A later study found more support, using regression. Still, maybe democracy isn’t the first cause.
  • 284, Is the Long Peace a Liberal Peace? Perhaps the Democratic Peace is a special case of Liberal Peace (in the classic sense), with its notion of gentle commerce and non-zero sum interactions – c.f Robert Wright’s book, 284b. We know that trade has mushroomed, and there are many examples of how freer trade correlates with greater peace. Yet some historians are skeptical. Again we can do a regression, and the result suggests a Capitalist Peace, 287, and the arguments are persuasive. However not all democracies are capitalist, or vice versa, 288t. The notion of a Liberal Peace, though, is on solid ground.
  • 288, Is the Long Peace a Kantian Peace? After WWII many thinkers supposed only a world government could avoid future self-destruction. Einstein, Russell, others, 289t. Today only kooks and science fiction fans carry on the campaign, for various reasons. [[ Because among other things with only one entity, there’s no motivation for competition or improvement, and no escape ]]
  • A better idea is that a world government is an economic cooperation like the European Union; this is the third vortex of Kant’s triangle. Another regression analysis verifies the correlation.
  • Is there a deeper cause than the three legs of Kant’s triangle? Perhaps his more general principle of the Categorical imperative, 291. The ‘realism’ movement would snort; without world government, nations live in permanent Hobbesian anarchy. But this depends on a concept of human nature as self-interested rational animals; in fact, humans are moral animals as well. So the Kantian cause is plausible, and if so, war may go the way of cat-burning, slavery, dueling, and a host of other customs, 291b.
  • And among developed countries, the late 20th century brought TV, computers, jet travel, and communications that created a ‘global village’, in parallel with the forces that drove the Humanitarian Revolution. – end 1st para 292.5 : “A world in which a person can open the morning paper and meet the eyes of a naked, terrified little girl running toward him from a napalm attack nine thousand miles away is not a world in which a writer can opine that war is ‘the foundation of all the high virtues and faculties of man’ or that it ‘enlarges the mind of a people and raises their character.’”
  • Similar forces may have ended the Cold War and led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, as news of the West filtered in; something similar is happening in China. [[ This reflects how autocracies survive only as long as they can isolate themselves from outsiders; and why Trump tries to demonize the news. ]]
  • Or maybe the world learns from its mistakes; the three pinnacles of war deaths were each followed by extended basins, 293t. Kant realized this. Another data set shows pairs of democracies respond more quickly than other pairs, in returning to peaceable levels. Perhaps we’re learning.

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So gist of this is that author concludes the three legs of the Kant triangle are indeed the foundations of the reduction of violence in war, and the further growth of an interconnected world is undermining autocracies and maintaining the ‘long peace’.

Posted in Book Notes, Social Progress, Steven Pinker | Leave a comment

The Limitations of Human Cognition

  • Anti-Vaxxers and how it’s not about evidence;
  • Paul Krugman on Trump’s incoherent war on drugs;
  • Short takes on how Trump is elevating Sen. Mark Kelly; how Maga’s idea of Christianity implies a “cold-hearted Jesus”; and why a Bible-based essay on psychology was given a failing grade;
  • Connie Willis’ Trump Dementia Watch today.
– – –

Once again, I am thinking that the limits of cognitive ability, combined with the inclinations toward tribalism and intuitive superstition, may cap the progress of the human race.

NY Times, Rachael Bedard, 25 Nov 2025 (but in yesterday’s paper, 30 Nov): I Went to an Anti-Vaccine Conference. Medicine Is in Trouble.

It’s never about debating evidence. It’s about stories and belonging to a tribe. The writer seems to conclude that there’s no way to overcome this. Concluding,

Anti-vaxxers are often characterized as misinformed, and people like Mr. Hildebrand are often characterized as exploited by leaders of Children’s Health Defense when they are vulnerable. But that doesn’t give the people I met at the conference enough credit for the agency they exercise in their lives, or for how sincerely they hold their beliefs. They are there by choice because they accept the group’s worldview. In that world, they feel believed and valued, and are encouraged to think of themselves as brave instead of scared.

Medical culture, in contrast, tends to approach preventable tragedies as teachable moments. This is a mistake. Crises are opportunities to show people what you can do for them, not to ask them to change their minds. Prevention is about risk mitigation; providing people with care and options when they disregard your best advice reduces harm. Effective public health policy should aspire to do both things well.

It isn’t the role of health policymakers or even individual doctors to make meaning for people; the local health department is not supposed to be a source of spiritual succor. But I am thinking hard, after attending this conference, about where spiritual succor is supposed to come from in a technocratic world.

I now understand more viscerally that MAHA and the anti-vaccine movement are growing because they offer people ways to translate their stories into new purpose. Public health and conventional medicine, on the other hand, are only losing people who we might otherwise help. We cannot affirm untrue beliefs, but perhaps we should start listening for new ways to meet people in their moments of need.

At the same time: there are *plenty* of people who understand science and risk analysis and so on and who aren’t hobbled by this inchoate yearning for “meaning,” which always seems to entail the shocking revelation that one is not at the center of the universe, and the selfish need to feel that one is the primary concern of the omnipotent God, who created all the billions of galaxies and planets yet who would favor one race on one tiny planet in all of that. Religion is always about favoring one’s own circumstances, and ignoring everything else.

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Widely covered today, the subject of my post two days ago. I’ll post Paul Krugman’s take.

Paul Krugman, 1 Dec 2025: Trump: Pro-crypto or Pro-crime?, subtitled “Or are they the same thing?”

He summarizes recent events. Then:

At first glance, the juxtaposition seems bizarre – Trump is either murdering or committing war crimes against people who are at worst small-time drug smugglers, and may be innocent fishermen, while pardoning a drug lord who was responsible for thousands of American deaths while savaging his own country, Honduras. But there is a pattern to this murderous madness, once one connects the dots between Trump’s mob-boss persona and the billionaire crypto/tech broligarchy.

Going on:

First, understand that Trump’s vendetta against purported penny-ante drug smugglers is all about dominance display, an exhibition of his ability to order violence. The real object may be to set the stage for invadingVenezuela.

Second, while Trump is clearly willing to inflict gratuitous suffering on the little people, he positively revels in his association with big-time criminals, whether it’s Putin; or Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who had a critical journalist dismembered with a bone saw; or Ross Ulbricht, creator of Silk Road, an underground e-marketplace known for drug trafficking, whom Trump pardoned immediately after assuming office; or Larry Hoover, a Chicago crime boss, who was sentenced to several lifetimes in prison for leading the Gangster Disciples, also pardoned by Trump. Yes, Trump really and truly cares about crime in Chicago.

And yet again I have to wonder why Trump’s fans don’t care about any of this. My provisional conclusion is that they simply don’t hear about it. Fox News, et al., will not run it.

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Briefly Noted.

  • Salon, Amanda Marcotte, 1 Dec 2025: MAGA’s war on empathy was started by a woman, subtitled “Allie Beth Stuckey weaponizes her gender to sell the idea of a cold-hearted Jesus” — — The MAGA idea of Christianity implies a “cold-hearted Jesus”.
  • Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, 1 Dec 2025: She turned in a Bible sermon instead of an essay and failed. Now conservatives say she’s the victim., subtitled “Samantha Fulnecky’s Bible-filled essay earned her a failing grade. After whining to Republican leaders, the University of Oklahoma is caving to her demands.” — — Also widely reported. Hemant in his post reproduces and comments on her entire essay. Basic problem: you can justify *anything* with religion, or the Bible. Again: religion hobbles reason. She doesn’t understand this.

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As mentioned two days ago, Connie Willis’ daily posts about the latest in political news now has its own site.

Connie Willis, 30 Nov 2025: ANOTHER GOP REP STEPS DOWN

Despite the title, I’m noting this for her section on “Trump Dementia Watch.” I’ll quote. (Various Facebook friends of Connie have been reposting her daily posts.)

–On Trump’s Middle East trip last month, he told an imaginary story about the first time he met Egypt’s Sisi. Trump said he was supposed to meet Hillary Clinton, too, but “he liked me so much he never even got to see Hillary.” (Sisi actually met with Clinton for 70 minutes.)

–Trump on the Israel-Gaza ceasefire: “Israel can say that ‘we killed 50,000,’ and so you’d say it’s a whole net set of people. And it is. They get replaced by other people. Young people.”

–When Trump had his press conference with MBS, MBS said he had had a great relationship with every US President. Trump said, “But does Trump blow em all away? Trump doesn’t give a fist pump. I grab that hand.” (Trump reached over and shook MBS’s hand vigorously. “I don’t care where that hand has been.”

–Trump, talking about that time he made French fries at McDonald’s: “I’ve been on that line many times. Actually, that line was incredible in the commercial, right? But it wasn’t a commercial. It was about, but they have the line. The people had no idea. So, I made the French fries. The guy was really good. He had a great wrist. He was, nyee, Sir, he was going like sui…”

–Trump, talking to a meeting of McDonald’s employees: “I’ll bet they use real sugar in your Coca-Cola. You know, they didn’t in the US. I said to the head of Coca-Cola, you got to go to sugar. They do in other countries. And you know what? They went to sugar. Isn’t that nice? I said, ‘You got to go to sugar.’ Just like I said why is the Gulf of Mexico called the Gulf of Mexico? I said, We’re changing the name. And now it’s the Gulf of America. Has nothing to do with McDonald’s but maybe it does because it’s very nice cycle.”

–JV Last: “Coca-Cola has not reverted to sugar.”

–Trump: “Our nation now is the most respected nation anywhere in the world. Europeans respect your President. They call me the President of Europe, which is an honor.” (Note: No, they don’t.)

–Trump: “I met with two pollsters. They said, Sir, if George Washington and Abraham Lincoln came back from the dead and they aligned, you’d be beating them by 25 points.”

–Trump: “The one pilot said skedaddle and that thing just turned in its side—pppph. And it’s so unbelievable. And that knocked out Iran’s nuclear capabilities.”

–Trump: “It’s an amazing story. They hit and then they said skedaddle, the word skedaddle. And that plane went like this, you know, when it drops a bomb, it goes down very steeply because that gives it a better angle. The very, very heavy bombs. And they go boom. And as soon as those things, the one pilot, the first said skedaddle. I mean it’s just so unbelievable.”

–Trump: “I gave them unlimited water. Biden came back with a rigged election and he restricted the water again. But I came back and immediately restarted it again. So now you have unlimited water to clean your damn dishes.”

–JV Last: “Trump has a playlist of grievances and stories in his head. What seems to be happening here is that Trump can’t tell his stories apart. He starts talking about flow restrictions on faucets, which brings him to water, but the word water triggers another of his obsessions–water supply issues and delivery to farms in the American West. And Trump’s brain now mashes these two stories together into a single, unintelligible blob.”

–Angele: “This is all simply terrifying. He’s an angry insane little evil man.”

–Mercy Ormont: “The people now holding Trump’s leash have a tiger by the tail. They may still want to make use of the tiger, or they may have figured out that this tiger is becoming increasingly erratic, but either way they don’t know how to let go of the tail.”

–Daily Kos: “Like all malignant narcissists, he always tells on himself. He undermines the cover up every time they try to create one. This is why they will all go down to defeat–his own pathology will bring him down (along with the Republicans who have propped him up.)

–A paper sign saying “Oval Office” was spotted outside the White House right next to the Oval Office. Claude Taylor, an ex White House staffer, said: “It’s pretty clear to me they are marking the path from the Residence to the Oval Office like they do in memory care facilities.”

Posted in Conservative Resistance, Human Nature, Psychology | Leave a comment

Because It’s There, and Because We Can

Big Think, Ethan Siegel, 28 Nov 2025: Ask Ethan: What’s the point of exploring the Universe?, subtitled “There are so many problems, all across planet Earth, that harm and threaten humanity. Why invest in researching the Universe?”

(My first comment, something of an aside: The photo shows the so-called “Pillars of Creation” nebula first photographed in 1995, and more recently by the James Webb Space Telescope in mid-infrared and in near-infrared, left and right, shown here. I’ve always been slightly annoyed by the nomenclature “pillars” because they only way the term can apply is because the photo has been turned to make those nebular extensions seem to go upward. It’s an example of humans imposing our own biases on the universe at large. Even the ‘north’ indicator is arbitrary, since the way we view maps and the globe could just as well been the other way around.)

Key Takeaways

• With so many problems in the world, from war to poverty to hunger to disease and much more, investing in exploring the Universe can sometimes feel frivolous. • And yet, the value we get from engaging in pursuits that take us beyond our Earthly concerns can sometimes far outstrip anything we’d gain from diverting resources away from those endeavors. • It’s a question that’s been asked repeatedly over the course of many centuries, but the answer is always the same: human civilization is a long game. We mustn’t shortchange the future.

The article begins with the familiar litany of problems in the world that people (conservatives) say need to be addressed before spending money on frivolous (to them) enterprise like space exploration and billion dollar space telescopes. But it has always been so. (And, of course, conservatives do not actually want to spend any money solving homelessness or hunger.)

“People keep asking me… what is the importance of studying and making extensive research about the Universe? Why should we spend billions of dollars on it while we have a lot of problems to solve here on Earth?”

It’s a question that’s been asked, in various incarnations throughout history, for many centuries. Here’s what I wish everyone would know.

He discusses basic research, which invariably produces benefits that were not expected or planned for. Building CERN, for example, triggered the invention of the World Wide Web. Apollo, and the list of spinoff technologies it generated. And other historical examples.

There’s never a guarantee that what we’re going to find will be useful down the road, and it’s often impossible to predict what sort of practical applications will arise anytime we look at the Universe in ways we never have before. But oftentimes, that’s where the greatest advances of all are awaiting.

And

And yet, there’s another reason — completely unrelated to whatever downstream technological benefits may arise from investing in science — that we should pursue such ends: all of society benefits when we are collectively inspired. We cannot spend all of our time and resources thinking solely about mundane, terrestrial concerns, as events on Earth frequently divide us from one another. But one look toward the depths of space always reminds us of the same grand truth: there’s a remarkable and vast Universe out there, and in all of it, Earth is the only place we’ve ever found that’s friendly to life forms like us.

It’s about thinking big instead of thinking small. The same old divide.

Then there’s the greatest reason, as the article ends.

And still, the greatest reason to continue exploring the Universe isn’t because it’s profitable, nor because it’s beneficial, nor even because it’s inspirational, although it truly is all three of those things. The reason we explore the Universe is because it’s there and because we can, and our quest for knowledge beyond the present frontiers is what compels us to push the collective endeavor of human civilization forward. In some senses, we’re nothing more than specialized apes: capable of altering the world in profound ways, but not yet wise enough to cease from plundering the very resources we need in order to ensure a future where humanity can sustainably thrive.

It’s far beyond the scope of this article to prescribe cures for all the problems facing our species and our planet, but one thing is certain: we have to work together toward the global, long-term common good. If we stop investing in the basic research that takes us beyond the known frontiers, we’ll never achieve the lofty goals that represent the common dreams of our ancestors, contemporaries, and descendants.

We explore because we hope that human civilization is a long game. Not a short one ending in apocalypse as some of the faith-addled among us seem to genuinely hope for. “We have to work together toward the global, long-term common good.”

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It’s worth pondering for a moment if similar questions weren’t asked about the European explorers in the 15th and 16th centuries. Well, they were searching for India and spices and wealth, might have been the response. And perhaps that accounts for most of them. But surely not all. Humans have always had an itch to explore, an itch perhaps born of how the species settled down from a nomadic one, as lived for 100,000 years or more, to a sedentary one, just 10 or 12 thousand years ago. Some of us, at least, always want to see what’s beyond the next horizon.

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And some of us don’t. Some of us are concerned with selfish endeavors and partisan infighting — tribal wars. Briefly noted:

Posted in Astronomy, Conservative Resistance, Cosmology, Science | Leave a comment