- Steve Stewart-Williams about an attempt to identify the one cognitive bias to rule them all: the confirmation bias;
- Political notes: How Trump claims victory yet again; how even Fox News noticed that not much was accomplished at that summit;
- And Salon’s Amanda Marcotte on why MAGA calls Trump “Daddy”.
Via Jerry Coyne:
Steve Stewart-Williams, The Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche Newsletter, 9 Aug 2025: One Bias to Rule Them All, subtitled “All cognitive biases = one of a handful of fundamental beliefs + confirmation bias”
(Actually a repost of something earlier, the writer acknowledges. I have a book by this author that looks intriguing but have not yet read: Darwin, God and the Meaning of Life: How Evolutionary Theory Undermines Everything You Thought You Knew.)
In some cases science grows increasingly complex; from other perspectives these complexities reduce down to a few basic principles. (See Deutsch: THE FABRIC OF REALITY.)
The writer is calling out the ballooning of identified cognitive biases:
Psychologists have posited hundreds of cognitive biases over the years, from hindsight bias to ingroup-outgroup bias to the fundamental attribution error. They’ve even proposed a bias bias: a tendency to overestimate the impact of cognitive biases on (other) people’s thinking. Inventing and cataloging biases seems to be one of psychologists’ favorite pastimes.
But a fascinating recent paper by Aileen Oeberst and Roland Imhoff argues that all our cognitive biases boil down to one of a handful of fundamental beliefs, coupled with just one “ultimate” bias. The fundamental beliefs include such ideas as “I make correct assessments” and “I am good.” And the ultimate bias is confirmation bias: the tendency to seek and favor information consistent with one’s preexisting views.
In this post, I’ll look at a range of common cognitive biases, and the six fundamental beliefs that give rise to them.
He gives examples of a chart of a chart of 50 Cognitive Biases [this is an image link] and even more complex Cognitive Bias Codes [another link to an image] from 2016.
Happenstance, this is how science works, over history. Many many examples of a phenomenon are identified and organized and classified, until someone comes along and sees the common threads, and proposes a unification theory. As Deutsch suggested, this is possible because we live in a single universe governed by common universal laws.
The article cited claims “Six Fundamental Beliefs that Bias Our View of the World”
- My experience is a reasonable reference;
- I make correct assessments of the world;
- I am good;
- My group is a reasonable reference;
- My group (members) is (are) good;
- People’s attributes (not context) shape outcome.
I haven’t subscribed to the writer’s site (yet), and so for this list I’m relying on the screen capture from Jerry Coyne.
But again: the one bias to rule them all is the confirmation bias. It’s how people view the world as they want it to be. Not how it actually is.
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Political items from JMG:
Once again, without evidence, Trump declares victory.
JMG,18 Aug 2025: Trump: DC Is Now “The Safest City In The World”
OK, I’ll quote this one, from Truth Social.
“D.C. gave Fake Crime numbers in order to create a false illusion of safety. This is a very bad and dangerous thing to do, and they are under serious investigation for so doing! Until 4 days ago, Washington, D.C., was the most unsafe ‘city’ in the United States, and perhaps the World. Now, in just a short period of time, it is perhaps the safest, and getting better every single hour! People are flocking to D.C. again, and soon, the beautification will begin!”
So now, let’s see, what is he saying? The old crime numbers for DC — about crime having fallen in recent years — were fake, because Trump wanted this crisis of crime in the capital to be real. But now the crime numbers are OK, because he intervened! DC is safe!
Is anyone fooled by this?
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Even Fox News noticed.
JMG, 18 Aug 2025, via The Daily Beast: Fox Host Roasts Summit: “Not Much Accomplished”
Fox News host Howard Kurtz has delivered a brutal assessment of President Donald Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Media Buzz host said Sunday that “despite some upbeat talk” after Friday’s summit on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, “it was clear not much was accomplished.”
“No ceasefire, no details, no questions from the press, just vague assurances that some progress was made without explaining what that was,” he continued.
JMG notes “The cult is demanding that Fox fire Kurtz. Because of course.”
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Another political item, deeper.
Salon, Amanda Marcotte, 18 Aug 2025: Why MAGA calls Trump “Daddy”, subtitled “Yes, it’s a weird sex thing. But it also reveals secret insecurities”
Now, it is easy to speculate why this would be. Conservatives are authoritarian minded; they revel in their Daddy God; they don’t want to think too much and want to rely on a powerful father-figure to tell them want to do. But let’s see what Marcotte says. Beginning:
The MAGA movement is determined to make politics as disgusting as possible, destroying democracy one juvenile 4chan meme at a time. It turns out that American fascism isn’t just wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross, but accuses women of having “Arby’s in your pants,” claims immigrants eat people’s pets and peddles conspiracy theories that politicians’ wives are secretly trans. In their mission to gross out normal people, Donald Trump‘s followers, much to his delight, like to call him “Daddy.”
It seemed to have really taken off in October, when Tucker Carlson gave his “Daddy’s home” speech at a Georgia campaign rally. He likened Trump to an abusive father, and compared America to his teenaged victim, all in an unsubtly sexualized way. “When dad gets home, you know what he says? ‘You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl, and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now,” Carlson said, as the crowd cheered wildly.
MAGA crowds loved imagining their leader as Incest Daddy, dishing out humiliating vengeance on “naughty” Americans, whom they imagined as liberals, feminists, queer people, racial minorities. At rallies, they would chant “Daddy’s home” as they fantasized about the horrors Trump would unleash on their perceived enemies.
With examples of people actually saying “Daddy Trump.” And what I would say, again, is a reversion to the most primitive state of human nature.
No doubt a lot of this is sublimated sexuality, which is often the case with a right-wing that outwardly embraces Christian right hostility to most forms of sexual expression. But it is the power dynamic that Carlson invoked — the large man versus the small girl — that really distills why Trump and the MAGA movement are so attracted to this “Daddy” idea. Fascism is a vehicle for weak, insecure people to feel powerful in the most cowardly way possible: By violating and abusing those they believe can’t fight back. It’s the attitude of the rapist and the child abuser, someone who pathetically congratulates himself for being “tough” because of his violence, but who fears taking on someone his own size. No wonder Trump is the perfect avatar for it.
And that’s enough about that, and for today.
