What Is American Exceptionalism, Really?

  • Lydia Polgreen on how the problem isn’t Trump, it’s America;
  • David French wonders if America is so rich, why are Americans so miserable?
  • Faith that climate change isn’t real;
  • Short items: that classic poll against Arabic numerals; how people who lose elections don’t trust elections; yet another Jewish plot; a bloodthirsty prayer; another conservative convicted of what conservatives rail against; Biblical worldview;
  • Radiohead’s “How to Disappear Completely”.
– – –

It’s not just Trump. It’s some deep undercurrent in American culture.

NY Times, opinion by Lydia Polgreen, today: It’s Not Trump. It’s America. [gift link]

Like a lot of other Americans, I’ve oscillated in these dark times between two emotional poles. At points, I tell myself that Donald Trump is a uniquely malevolent figure who has seized levers of power that no previous president had ever dared to grasp. The story doesn’t stop state violence in the streets or illegal military operations abroad. Yet it has its comforts. Once Trump passes from the scene — as the laws of nature, if not politics, require — some kind of restoration of the American democratic and constitutional project can take place.

On darker days, I find myself turning to a more thoroughgoing narrative: that Trump is the fulfillment of what America has always been — a self-satisfied nation, granted license by its myths about providence and exceptionalism to do whatever it wants. Trump didn’t come from nowhere, after all. His two victories were forged by choices made by Americans and the leaders they elected. If he had not existed, history would have invented someone like him. This explanation offers its own consolation. At least it is something a rational mind can grasp.

This is what I’m coming to think: “a self-satisfied nation, granted license by its myths about providence and exceptionalism to do whatever it wants.” It’s exceptionalism to the point of arrogance.

Is Trump a freak of history or its fulfillment, an aberration or a culmination? The answer, surely, is both. But in the course of his presidency, Trump has revealed a much older malady: America’s unshakable faith in its ability to shape the world to its liking, indifferent to what others might want and supremely confident that its plan is the right one. Beyond Trump, it’s this disfiguring mentality we Americans must face.

Remember, key figures in the founding of America were religious zealots. Fortunately, the country has grown so big that there are plenty of rational people living here too. The nation is *big*. That’s why America has been so successful, technologically and scientifically, despite that core of irrationality. That book by Kurt Andersen that I just mentioned may have some answers…

\\

Is this related? Perhaps. Americans who think we’re the bestest nation in the world don’t understand why everything isn’t perfect. But this is psychology, more than American exceptionalism.

NY Times, opinion by David French: How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich? [another gift link, I still have a few to use before the end of the month]

The American economy is the envy of the world.

Actual Americans, however, are not happy about their economy, and they’ve been unhappy about it for a long time.

Both of those statements are true, and until recently, frankly, they stumped me. How could it possibly be rational to feel such prolonged pessimism in the face of such extraordinary economic growth?

Over the last quarter-century, G.D.P. growth in the United States has far outpaced growth in Europe and Japan, two of our primary economic competitors (outside of India and China), to such an extent that many of Europe’s most powerful nations have economies only as prosperous as those of our poorest states. British and French living standards, as measured by disposable income, for example, are more comparable to that of Mississippi, still the poorest state, than to America’s as a whole.

I find that last claim hard to believe, but he does cite a reference.

This is about how people compare themselves to each other, rather than to some absolute scale or even historical standard, and about the fallacy that the past was better than the present, the result of selective memory and biased thinking.

The result is that immense numbers of Americans live lives that would look extraordinarily prosperous compared with previous generations. For all their justified complaints about housing affordability, Americans on average live in larger and more luxurious homes than Americans in generations past.

Previous luxuries — things like central air, big-screen televisions, home computers and multiple cars — are now common staples of American life across most, although of course not all, of our social classes.

French then cites this NYT essay from last August that clarified his thinking.

…and once my perspective changed, I saw a reality that I couldn’t unsee — we are miserable in part because we are wealthy.

And he goes on with examples about Disney World, travel sports, flying, cars, health care, and so on. This is the hedonic treadmill:

Wealth always tempts us to be discontent. We’re cursed with that insatiable desire for more. We’re prone to envy. There is a reason we talk about keeping up with the Joneses.

Ending:

It’s these choices, made millions of times by millions of Americans, that are both spurring our growth and — perversely enough — increasing our misery. We can’t have what we can’t afford, and we can’t have what we used to afford, and that combination can make even a middle-class American who may be well-off by historical standards feel very poor indeed.

\\\

Faith is a commitment to something that is not true. If it were true, there would be evidence for it and it wouldn’t require faith.

Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, today: “My faith is not in climate change”: Minnesota GOP lawmaker doubles down on denial, subtitled “Minnesota Rep. Mary Franson dismissed scientists’ warnings because her Christian faith taught her the crisis is irrelevant”

During a House Capital Investment Committee hearing on Tuesday, a Republican lawmaker argued that Minnesotans didn’t need to worry about the impact of climate change because the Bible taught her it’s irrelevant.

She said:

But what doesn’t change, my friends, and that’s why, when you talk about climate change, I don’t get upset about it, I don’t get worked up about it, it’s because my faith is not in climate change. It’s not in scientists dictating what we should and should not do to save the environment. Because my faith is in Jesus Christ, right? He’s the same today, tomorrow, and forever. Yesterday. And so, um, you know, if you’ve read the Good Book, you know how it ends. It’s not with climate change.

If it’s not in the bible, it can’t be real? Dimwit. And dangerous.

\\\

Briefly noted.

\\\

Up to Kid A. I read that this song is about the stress of being on stage and exposed every day… Dissociate yourself from the moment, to get through it.

Wikipedia

Posted in Lunacy, Music, Politics, Psychology, Religion | Leave a comment

Skiffy Flix: Invaders from Mars

This is a 1953 film that holds special significance for me since it was likely the first science fiction movie I ever saw, even if I saw it only in part at the time, which would be 1965 or 1966. As with Lost in Space, which had debuted in the Fall of 1965, I saw this movie at a neighbor’s house one afternoon. Neither was the kind of show or movie my parents would have on TV at home.

The story opens with a boy, David MacLean, who uses an alarm clock to wake up at 4am to stargaze with his telescope through his bedroom window. The alarm wakes his parents too, who come to investigate. David says, but Dad! Orion is at zenith! And it won’t happen for another 6 years! He pronounces it OH-rion, not oh-RI-on, as astronomers do, and it’s impossible for Orion to appear at zenith (from this presumably middle America town), and if it did it wouldn’t happen only every six years. That’s Hollywood astronomy for you. (To be fair, there’s a small town in Illinois near where my parents grew up that pronounced Orion the same way.) His father uses the scope to look at Rigel (he pronounces it ‘regal’, not RYE-jel) and Bellatrix, and his mother turns on the ceiling light, which would ruin the boy’s night vision. Bad parents! (These are the kinds of things I remember after decades, more than the exact plot.)

But that’s an incidental prelude. Only 40 minutes later, David is awakened by a thunderstorm, and looks out the window to see… a greenish flying saucer descending beyond a nearby hillside. “Gee whiz!”

This movie is very stylish at the beginning, even as it devolves into a standard military operation by the end, with tanks approaching from every direction to try to blast the alien invaders into smithereens, as so many other skiffy movies of the era do.

Some of the stylish parts are apparent right away.

First, the iconic image in the movie is the hillside, seen from the bedroom window, which uses forced perspective to appear larger and farther away than it actually is. It was done on a sound stage (as many 1940s and ’50s movies did) using such forced perspective, with a backdrop of the evening or morning sky beyond. We never see the far side of that hillside..

Second, the soundtrack uses a recurring choral motif every time anything alien appears, which is appropriately mysterious and threatening. (No theremin, at least.)

And third, some very simple special effects are used to suggest alien weirdness. One is at the beginning as the saucer lands and presumably hides itself underground: we see a crusty surface, lit from below by green, that gradually expands and breaks up. More often, we see a patch of fine sand, with the center dropping away into a funnel, as if a stopper had been pulled beneath the surface — and then, later, a reverse shot of this, with the funnel filling up again. Those shots are the ones I most remembered years after first seeing the movie.

The plot is familiar, and I’ll only outline it here. David’s father goes out next morning to investigate, and seems to fall into a pit just over the edge of the hill — cue that shot of sand dropping away — and returns oddly changed. Zombie-like. And with an injury, or sore, on the back of his neck. Police come to investigate, and fall into the hillside too, and return like zombies. Then the mother. The boy appeals to the sheriff. Here’s a fourth image from the film: many scenes like this one are filmed in such a way that the poor boy is diminished before uncaring, even hostile adults.

The boy is referred to a female Dr. Blake, who is sympathetic and hears his story, and calls in an astronomer, a Dr. Kellston. The astronomer speculates that Mars may have cities underground (they can’t be disproved!) and mutants (pronounced MU-tants, with a flat a as in ‘ants’), and maybe they’re worried about Earth’s exploration of space — given that David’s father works at the nearby plant where a rocket is under construction. (Cue photo of rocket.)

And so soon enough the military is called in, and we see endless scenes of tanks approaching the area.

The final act has Dr. Blake and the boy drawn underground to the Martians’ lair, where Martian troops (actors dressed in green suits) shamble back and forth among the tunnels in support of the leader, a head inside a sphere with arms rising up the area of the shoulders.

— I can’t find a version of the entire movie on YouTube, but this highlights reel, that comments about the movie, shows the Martian leader, the hillside, and much else, including how much people like Steven Spielberg and Martin Scorsese admire the film.

After much, much running around, our heroes escape from the Martian tunnels, and the Martian ship explodes.

And then, after a series of run-in-reverse flashbacks, David is back in his bedroom, hearing another storm, and sees the saucer once again descend behind the nearby hill. Was it all a dream?

\

As the video linked above notes, there were two versions of this movie. UK distributors thought the movie too short and added more scenes, and perhaps changed the ending. I’ve only seen the US version.

The bottom line here is that the movie is effective for its paranoid and otherworldly creepiness. It invokes the standard sf trope of the time, that humans might be taken over by aliens (there was some of that in It Came from Outer Space), made much more explicit in the later Invasion of the Body Snatchers, in 1956, and it depicts the recurring idea that the way to confront aliens is to bring in the tanks and blast them.

Posted in Skiffy Flix | Comments Off on Skiffy Flix: Invaders from Mars

Can I? Must I?

  • RFK Jr. illustrates the hypocritical standards of conservative motivated thinking: “Can I believe it?” (one example is fine) vs. “Must I believe it?” (no amount of evidence will do);
  • David Brin ridicules NASA’s new plan to build a Lunar base;
  • Laura Miller on how tech barons like Elon Musk love science fiction but misunderstand it completely;
  • Short items: Trump only knows what his staff shows him; Veterans are horrified that Trump is treating the war like a joke; Beware anyone who claims God has told them what to do.
  • Radiohead: Exit Music (For a Film).
– – –

Psychological biases and fallacies are most clearly demonstrated by conservatives.

Washington Post, Editorial Board, 24 Mar 2026: RFK Jr.’s hypocritical quackery, subtitled “FDA scientists warn that some popular peptides are ineffective and potentially dangerous.”

Beginning with the point:

No amount of rigorous academic research or testing ever seems good enough to quell Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s doubts about vaccines. Yet for products he favors, anything goes.

This evokes a common observation in books about the fallibility of human reasoning, e.g. way back in 1991’s HOW WE KNOW WHAT ISN’T SO by Thomas Gilovich, which I reviewed here, and which I mentioned includes a discussion of

the notion of reacting to confirming or challenging evidence as being about “can I believe” vs “must I believe”

And in Jonathan Haidt, here (from 2015):

When we *want* to believe something, we ask, *Can* I believe it? For this you need only a single piece of pseudo-evidence. Whereas if you’re not inclined to believe something, you ask *Must* I believe it? And then no matter how much supporting evidence you find, if you find a single reason to doubt the claim, you dismiss it. This is the essence of motivated reasoning, and Haidt illustrates it by observing that conspiracy theories operate on the former strategy (*can* I believe it? give me one example) while science operates on the latter (if all the evidence supports an idea, you must believe), and non-scientists are adept at finding some reason to quibble.

And how you can Google to find support for whatever you ‘want’ to believe.

Back to the article about RFK Jr.:

The hypocrisy is especially rank as RFK pushes the Food and Drug Administration to loosen restrictions on peptides, an experimental fad among wellness influencers who scorn traditional medicine.

With details about what peptides are, alternative “therapies” that are not FDA approved (because no evidence supports them), and how they’re bought on the black market anyway, to RFK Jr.’s apparent blessing. Ending:

Contrast that with Kennedy’s stance on vaccines: He has alleged that federal advisory panels have acted as “rubber stamps” in approving shots, repeatedly demanding better safety data for immunizations, even though the approval process already required extensive reviews. He has required better testing protocols for vaccines, including the use of placebos even when such study designs are impractical or unethical.

That inconsistency is bad for medical innovation. Drug manufacturers should be confident that the government will review their products with the same rigor all others receive. No entrepreneur should need to do business at the whims of a government quack.

\\\

You can’t trust the current administration about anything. Now NASA is wildly changing course about what it wants to accomplish in the next decade. A lunar colony!

Here is David Brin, who *can* be trusted.

Contrary Brin, 25 Mar 2026: Cancel the useful Lunar Gateway and drop the modules down to the lunar surface? Are you $%@#! kidding?

There are no levels where the cancellation of Gateway – in favor of jibbering fantasies about a near term, surface “moonbase” – is not an utter betrayal of science, reason, NASA and the nation and humanity.

ALL of the science advisory panels preferred Gateway orbital station, for a dozen reasons (see below). But the absurd notion of putting modules designed for a zero-gee station down onto the lunar surface… are you freaking kidding me? Even if it would work (and it can’t), have you a plan HOW to do that?

And he explains in detail why all the expert panels supported Gateway. The outrageous part is that modules that are being designed for zero-G are now to be dropped, somehow, onto the Moon.

\\

Not precisely related, but close.

Slate, Laura Miller, 24 Mar 2026: How Silicon Valley Borrowed Ideas From Sci-Fi and Bastardized Them, subtitled “Tech barons like Elon Musk love science fiction. They also misunderstand it completely.”

It is a truth universally acknowledged that technology barons both love science fiction and chronically fail to understand what science fiction is trying to tell them. The late Iain Banks’ Culture novels, about a utopian socialist society run by artificial intelligences, is often cited by Elon Musk, no socialist, as an inspiration for his Neuralink brain-implant company. Mark Zuckerberg so admires Neal Stephenson’s 1992 cyberpunk novel Snow Crash that he used to require all Facebook product managers to read it, and he named his unenthusiastically received virtual world, Metaverse, after the one in Stephenson’s book—this despite the fact that Snow Crash takes place in a corporate-dominated dystopia where average citizens are forced to live in shipping containers, with dips into the metaverse as their only relief. Upon the launch of ChatGPT-4o, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tweeted one word, “her,” a reference to the 2013 Spike Jonze film Her, in which a man falls in love with an A.I. voiced by Scarlett Johansson, an attachment that ends badly—though not as badly as some real-life instances of A.I. psychosis.

As Ray Bradbury once said about Fahrenheit 451, he wasn’t trying to predict the future, he was trying to *prevent* it.

Why are these moguls—men whom the business media have been praising as geniuses for the past 40 years—so dumb? Musk may very well be the dimmest of the lot in this department. He described the armored Cybertruck as “what Bladerunner would have driven” even though “blade runner” is a job description and not a character, and, as Max Read has written, the hero of the 1982 Ridley Scott movie, Rick Deckard, spends all of Blade Runner recognizing that his work is soul-crushing and inexcusable, even in the context of the urban hellscape he inhabits. “You don’t need the truck that ‘Bladerunner [sic] would have driven,’ ” Read explains for the obtuse (which apparently includes Musk), “because you don’t live in the world of Blade Runner.

You’d think that would be self-evident, but Silicon Valley persists in trying to realize fictional inventions that are meant to be understood as terrible ideas, apparently just because they look cool. The industry that has been propelling the developed world into the future is dominated by the mentality of a 12-year-old boy. Science fiction has a long history of anticipating and even inspiring technological change, and the genre’s authors have at times been consulted by government—usually the military or security forces—to model potential threat scenarios and ways to respond to them. That work has presented its own moral conundrums, but at least they were the dilemmas of adults, not the overgrown manchildren shaping so much of our daily lives.

Then visiting an essay by Argentinian novelist Michel Nieva.

Nieva wrote the essay “Capitalist Science Fiction,” the only piece on this subject in his book, to express “my puzzlement as a reader at finding that my favorite literary genre, science fiction, should have been transformed into one of the mythological engines of contemporary capitalism.” Yet both science fiction and capitalism come in more varied forms than Nieva seems to realize….

With examples. There are many ways to think about science fiction, which is why it’s such a vital genre. Ending:

For people who claim to champion disruption and creativity, tech barons seem intent on eliminating any inconvenience and unpredictability from their lives, along with all the unexpected experiences that lead to fresh ideas. Is it any wonder, then, that when it comes to the books they claim to love, these people have become experts at surgically extracting the bits they find pleasing and discarding anything they don’t want to hear? Science-fiction authors can issue all the warnings they want. In Silicon Valley, they will always fall on deaf ears.

\\\

Briefly noted.

Bubble.

NBC News, today: Inside Trump’s daily video montage briefing on the Iran war, subtitled “The montage, which typically runs for about two minutes, has raised concerns among some of the president’s allies that he may not be receiving the complete picture of the war.”

Via JMG: Trump Gets Daily Video Montage Of “Stuff Blowing Up”

Trump only knows what he sees on TV. The only TV he sees is what his staff shows him. His staff only shows him “stuff blowing up.” Which gives him the impression he’s winning, or has won, his war.

\\

Washington Post, Drew Harwell, today: In Trump’s war messaging, veterans see something new — and disturbing, subtitled “Service members and families who lost loved ones say the Trump team’s memes and jokes trivialize combat and sacrifice. Trump aides say the backlash sends views soaring.”

Via AlterNet, Thomas Kika, today: Veterans ‘horrified’ and ‘disgusted’ as Trump White House treats war ‘like a big joke’

The Trump administration has aggressively deployed memes and jokes on social media to spin the war in Iran as a major success, but according to a new report from the Washington Post, veterans and military families have been “horrified” by these “disturbing” memes that trivialize the sacrifices of service members.

In a report published Wednesday, the Post shared the reaction of retired U.S. Army colonel Joe Buccino, who felt “disgust” after seeing official Trump administration sources sharing “posts mixing Iran war footage with clips from cartoons and video games.”

These are deeply unserious people.

\\

The first sign that there’s something wrong.

Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, today: Ché Ahn says God told him to run for governor. California says he can’t be on the ballot., subtitled “The New Apostolic Reformation leader’s campaign faces collapse after failing to file required tax returns. He’s now suing for ballot access.”

Never believe or trust anyone who says they’ve been told by God what to do.

\

Random Facebook meme today:

The devil’s best work was convincing white evangelicals that a racist man who makes fun of dead soldiers, has 5 kids with 3 wives, gropes women, incites violence, and never tells the truth… was sent here by God.

\\\

Now going through Radiohead albums. Pablo Honey: you can keep your Creep; nothing else interesting. The Bends: I like “High and Dry,” “Fake Plastic Trees” especially (even though the lyrics are evocative but incoherent), and “Street Spirit (Fade Out)”. But it was songs like this one, on their third album, OK Computer, that brought me on board.

It’s about Romeo and Juliet. Give it until about 2:45, then turn it up. It’s like Phil Collins’ “In the Air Tonight” that way. Also, the next song, “Let Down,” is pretty good too.

Posted in Music, Psychology, Science, science fiction | Comments Off on Can I? Must I?

Bobby Azarian: THE ROMANCE OF REALITY

Subtitled: How the universe organizes itself to create life, consciousness, and cosmic complexity.
(BenBella Books, June 2022, 306pp, including 26pp of acknowledgements, notes, and index)

This is the third of three books I read this past January, all with vaguely similar themes, but each quite different in intent and conclusions from the others. I began this book back in September 2024, but then, with the coincidental appearance of Harari’s NEXUS in that same month, and its reference to Hidalgo’s WHY INFORMATION GROWS (from 2017 but on my shelves), I set Azarian aside to read Hidalgo, that September (posted about in November) and eventually the Harari, read last July (and not yet posted). Then this January returned to Azarian.

It’s not coincidental that Azarian referenced those two authors (indirectly) within the first 30 pages or so of his book, because his book is basically a synthesis of ideas from other writers. The difference between them and Azarian is that Azarian is anxious to challenge some of the big names in science writing, in favor a view that is… teleological? Even mystic?

As a book regardless of subject matter, its problem is that it’s both repetitious and *thick*. Or *dense*. One starts to glaze over. Couldn’t this all be summarized more cleanly? He’s always quoting others’ books, as if he knows his subjects only second-hand.

(Here’s a sample, admittedly out of context, from page 172:

Per the construcal [sic] law introduced in the prior chapter, this enables even more energy to flow through the system, organizing it faster, such that a positive feedback loop amplifies the size and complexity of the network. Out of molecular or behavioral chaos, dynamical order spontaneously emerges as new functional structure crystalizes from a quite enchanting entropic force. The individual components are now part of a higher-level system, with new global properties that constrain the behavior of the elements that make up the system.

)

Yet there’s a lot of good stuff here. In its amalgamation of themes, it resemble David Deutsch’s book from 1997 (reviewed here); he understands and aligns with Wilson’s consilience; and chapter 6 is a good summary of epistemology and science and how we know anything. Though once again, little of this is new.

And yet he makes it a point to disagree with the ideas of Sean Carroll, Daniel Dennett, Sam Harris… and not convincingly. It’s as if his shtick is being contrarian. As some writers are.

(I’ll note that the publisher is BenBella Books, a legitimate seeming publisher, but who’s not published any other book among hundreds in my nonfiction library. Also, there are lots of blurbs, but only familiar blurber is Michael Shermer. This was true about the two other books I read in January – as if these three writers sit outside the mainstream of current thought.)

The main theme of Azarian is that the universe is somehow preordained to develop life and consciousness. Other writers, like Carroll, has derived such ideas from the laws of physics, and subsequent ideas of complexity and emergence, but Azarian’s take is more insistently teleological than the takes of others. This strikes me as the same kind of *wanting to believe* that we’ve also seen in Alan Lightman and other writers. And as soon as you detect that motivation, beware: beware that they might be eliding over inconvenient facts and selectively presenting evidence to support their metaphysical yearnings.

Also: the author has never written another book. He doesn’t have a Wikipedia entry. None of these things necessarily mean anything. But: his claims in the introduction are so grandiose that were they justified, they would be much better known by now. I can only conclude his chain of reasoning has not impressed many others…

But, bottom line, after reviewing the detailed notes below. Even if the author seems trying too hard to reach a pre-determined conclusion, that conclusion is intermittently plausible. It’s certainly true, as I’ve gathered, that there is much in the basic structure in the universe that inevitably has given rise to the elements, the stars, to life, that has not required any supernatural entity to micromanage into existence.

(If you want to believe in God, be impressed by the way He set up the universe to automatically generate our vast universe and life on our planet, rather than thinking He micromanages its existence and our daily lives. And follow the implications of that: that many many other worlds likely harbor life as complex as life on Earth, since its emergence is built into the structure of reality. That Azarian’s point.)

Key Points

Early chapters summarize what we know about evolution (if not the origin of life), with claims that the emergence of life was inevitable. Given energy, life gains ‘agency,’ and how the second law of thermodynamics actually works. Then about entropy. How Prigogine explained about spontaneous order, about self-organization and dissipative structures.

In Ch4, how life is a better way to dissipate accumulated geothermal energy; life happens to a planet. (This is close to zeroing on when life evolved: as the interaction of molecules near deep sea volcanic vents, where lots of heat is present.) Thus life is inevitable, and likely exists on other planets, perhaps trillions of other planets. Further, living organisms have agency, and life on a planet is virtually impossible to destroy.

Ch 5 concerns emergence; life as a computational system; information; how living systems are informational systems.

In Ch6 he identifies ‘agency’ with ‘teleology’. Discussion of knowledge and how we acquire it. Many religious books, until the Enlightenment. Postmodernists who think there is no objective knowledge are wrong. Science has done in three centuries what religion and pure philosophy have never done. Science entails a practical method to always move us incrementally to the idea of absolute certainty and truth. Trial and error, adaptive learning, hypothesis testing, evolution: all variations of the same process. Evolutionary epistemology consists of evolution, cognition, and science. Later updated with Bayesian thinking. Similarly life is about survival, or persistence, or evading equilibrium. (This recalls David Deutsch.)

Ch7: this is a theory of open-ended knowledge creation. Purpose or progress in nature is not a paradox but a solution to a paradox. This sounds religious but is not. The laws of physics favored the emergence of consciousness. Three scientific philosophies are different perspectives on a single cosmic narrative: Universal Darwinism, evolutionary epistemology, and universal Bayesian-ism. EE-UD-UB, merging into a consilience.

Ch 8. So humanity’s desire to expand into space reflects a biological imperative. We are a way for the cosmos to know itself (as Sagan said).

Ch9 addresses hierarchy… Author imagines ‘poetic meta-naturalism’ playing off Sean Carroll, whom he thinks is too reductionist. Because nature does have a purpose. He discusses loops and levels. The former a Hofstadter term, and involves recursion and self-reference, leading to emergence and complexity. And we have levels, nested systems, smaller units becoming larger units: atoms/molecules/cells, continuing to the mind and beyond. Thus life’s emergence was ‘written into the fabric of the universe.’ Mainstream biologists have avoided such ideas to avoid any hint of teleology. Complexity goes with diversity. There’s no superior or inferior, but rather a web. A trend toward higher complexity. Even if there’s no conscious intent involved. But could something emerge that would be conscious?

Ch10 is a discussion of consciousness, what people have thought it was. Free will. How determinism gave way to indeterminism, chaotic systems. There’s no Laplace’s demon, no behaviorism; it was replaced by cognitive sciences. And information theory. Some go further into panpsychism, that all matter is imbued with mind; author says this is wrong.

Ch11 gets abstruse in a discussion of strange loops, among other topics.

Ch12 is about incompleteness and paradoxes. The mind is not a Turing machine. Hofstadter claimed self-reference as the source of self.

And Ch13 is about how a global mind may eventually emerge. There may be no end to the universe at all, no heat death or big freeze. But rather, a state of maximal complexity that might be indistinguishable from God. We can speak of this as a kind of goal, an entirely natural, not supernatural, one. The author revisits the fine-tuning problem, and the anthropic principles. The problem disappears in a multiverse, perhaps involving cosmological natural selection, in favor of universes with life. Another interpretation of quantum mechanics is ‘decoherence,’ which would explain why things are still there even when we look away. [[ Shades of Hoffman ]] Quantum Darwinism would be a true Theory of Everything. This even has implications for human morality, suggesting the obligation to expand and fill the universe with intelligence. Our obligations, therefore, are to do what’s good for the living network, the biosphere. What’s the meaning of life? Be aware; be meta-aware; make choices consistent with long-term goals. Take a cosmic perspective (cf Sagan). The greatest good for the greatest number of people. Be compassionate and progressive: knowledge is enlightenment, transcendence, and power. You are a cosmic imperative.

Detailed Notes

Introduction, p1

Right now we’re experiencing a paradigm shift. We’re not the center of the universe; life evolved. Now our worldview sees life as accidental and insignificant. Entropy is leading to complete disorder. Darwin’s idea led to the ideology of reductionism. And materialism. The reductionist worldview. But a new paradigm will show that life and intelligence has deep cosmic significance. This derives from complexity science, and dynamical systems. Life is a form of adaptive complexity, at the boundary between order and chaos.

He says: “a nested sequence of parts coming together to form ever-greater wholes” p5.4, so maybe extending Carroll et al. “At this moment in time… we are the stars of the show.” The universe is waking up – through us. Sagan quote. But existential success is not guaranteed for Homo sapiens. The book will argue that humans are autonomous agents with free will, 6.4. We will arrive at a ‘theory of everything’ that may be called a ‘unifying theory of reality.’ It will solve the hard problem of consciousness, free will, and issues of complexity and entropy. It will provide an ‘integrated evolutionary synthesis’. Three parts to the book… We will arrive at a ‘poetic meta-naturalism’.

Part One: Origins

Ch1, A New Beginning,  p11.

  • Thomas Huxley wondered how Man fits into the big scheme of things. The thesis of this book is, 11.8. We’re an intermediate step. The emergence of life wasn’t improbable, but inevitable. This suggests that extraterrestrial life must be common. Non-life became life through abiogenesis. 20th century scientists were sure life was an anomaly. That was just an assumption.
  • P13, Darwin explained how life evolves, not how it emerged. Evolution is simple to summarize. … But it doesn’t explain how the first living organisms arose. Stroke of luck?
  • P15, Life is not a fluke. The ‘chance hypothesis’ was accepted by Crick, among others. As did Hoyle, who compared the chance to a 747 being randomly assembled. Christian creationists seize on this, claiming divine intervention, option two. Option three: life emerged from increased complexity as soon as conditions allowed it. This was Sagan’s view. Stuart Kauffman put this forth in At Home in the Universe. 16b. But what is the mechanism?
  • P17, Energy as the fundamental organizer. The simple answer is energy. It’s what gives non-life an ‘agency’. Energy flow is what thermodynamics is about. Especially the second law… to understand how complex adaptive systems like life can emerge and proliferate.

Ch2, Energy, Entropy, and the Paradox of Life, p19

  • Quote by Strogatz.
  • Start with the first law: energy cannot be created or destroyed; the total amount in a system is constant. Yet truly isolated systems are rare or nonexistent.
  • P20: Entropy: a complex and confusing term, p20. Entropy is usually defined as ‘disorder.’ That can be misleading, outside of closed systems. [[ Yes Brian Greene just explained this, in 2020 ]] The total entropy does not correspond to the amount of organization that exists. There are two types of entropy. History. Steam engines. Dissipation. Entropy is the quantity of energy no longer available for work. This is thermal entropy. It doesn’t mean that the growth of life and complexity is prohibited.
  • P24: Boltzmann Entropy: A Measure of Statistical Disorder. His explanation of heat as molecular motion.
  • P25: Microstates versus macrostates. And he realizes the collective behaviors of system could be predicted statistically. Here’s where the notion of disorder came in. Examples of billiards, bathtubs, and coffee.
  • P27, The birth of statistical mechanics. Skittles. Playing cards. Configuration entropy.
  • P28, The way to evade a disordered fate. How to explain the complexity of our world? Because open systems don’t play by Boltzmann’s statistical rules. Earth gets energy from the sun.
  • P29, Schrodinger solved the paradox of life. His 1944 book, What Is Life? Life survives by consuming energy. And there are plenty sources of energy for us to extract. Asimov’s “The Last Question.” Biology may exist to open new channels for energy flow…

Ch3, Unraveling the Mystery of Life, p33

  • P34, Extending thermodynamic theory. Yet Schrodinger didn’t explain how life emerged. Ilya Prigogine came along in the 1960s with an idea.
  • P35, Spontaneous self-organization and the second law. Examples of spontaneous order include whirlpools in bathtubs, tornadoes, Jupiter’s red spot. These structures form around gradients. Such organized systems help reduce gradients as quickly as possible. The emergence of self-organization. Prigogine called these dissipative structures. Example of convection cells.
  • P37, Attractors create order by constraining chaos. … Phase transitions
  • P39, The birth of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Prigogine’s work gave rise to new fields of physics and chemistry. Especially studied at the Santa Fe Institute. New insights into how life might have begun.
  • P40, A new paradigm for understanding life. Prigogine’s ideas could not be demonstrated in a lab. In 2015, the idea of dissipative adaptation. In 2017, molecules aligning… adaptations. Using computer simulations. More papers appeared about similar ideas. Leading to the conclusion that the second law favors the emergence of complex systems that, when sufficiently complex, we call organisms. 42b.
  • P43, Collective autocatalysis catalyzes creation. How to get to the size of a cell? We need a process called autocatalysis. Processes in which a catalyst speeds up reactions of other molecules. Ref Paul Davies, The Demon in the Machine, about autopoiesis. All of this suggests that abiogenesis may have been inevitable. There’s still a long way to go to get a cell. What’s missing? Next chapter.

 Ch4, The Emergence of Life on Earth, p47

  • The topics of the previous chapter don’t get us DNA, enzymes, etc. So let’s consider the process of metabolism.
  • P48, Energy flow, organization, and metabolism. Harold Morowitz. The Krebs cycle, that we learn about in high school. A key came in 1977 with the discovery of life in hydrothermal vents, using a Krebs cycle in reverse. And Eric Smith from the Santa Fe Institute.
  • P50, Life: the universe’s great balancing act. In effect, self-renewing life served as a better way to dissipate accumulated geothermal energy. Life happens *to* a planet. Smith and Morowitz did a 2016 book…
  • P52, Phase transition theory and the origin of life. Phase transitions happen at various levels of abstraction. Flocks of birds; emergence of civilization. Local interactions propagate through the entire network. The effect is chaotic, e.g as with the butterfly effect. Thus the behavior of life is unpredictable. But we can use statistical mechanics to predict trends. And natural selection can operate on thermodynamic variations. For the utility of absorbing free energy.
  • P54, Questions and conclusions. Thus once life formed, it was able to survive. We can answer some key questions. Was life on earth an accident? No, it was the inevitable result of these various processes, 54.9. Is there life on other planets? Probably, at least on planets similar to Earth. How many of those would there be? Perhaps trillions. What is the relationship between life and the second law of thermodynamics? They exist in perfect harmony. If life was inevitable, how come the cell only emerged once in the history of the earth? Well, we don’t know that for sure; but we do see life everywhere on earth. Why has life been so hard to create in the lab? Life is complicated; replicating extreme temps and pressures is too. Earth had lots of time. Overall: we don’t need to depend on singular events to explain life; OTOH maybe life isn’t actually that ‘special’ after all. But this isn’t true, because living organisms have *agency*.
  • P57, The game changer is agency. Autonomous agents can push back on nature, and cause things to happen. A living agent can manipulate the environment to maintain itself. Though that’s not necessarily sentience. Quote from William James. So where did agency come from?
  • P59, The unreasonable robustness of biology. And why is life so robust and resilient? Our impression that life is fragile is due to our anthropocentric worldview. Life is a collective… 59m [[ Recall my notion that life on earth consists of a biosphere roughly stable in mass, that simply mixes up the ingredients in a regular way. Certain animals become certain other animals, and so on. ]] Life on a planet is virtually impossible to destroy. Even perhaps if the stars and planets run down…how do we explain this?

Ch5, Biological Information and Computation, p61

  • The new genesis story is all natural but nonetheless magical: this is called emergence. Life is not just a bunch of chemicals. How it’s different can be understood through the concept of information. And life as a computational system.
  • P62, What Is Information? Information and thermodynamics are intertwined. What is information? We glean information from the world around us. Examples of growth from babies to adults; Schrodinger realized it in What Is Life? Before DNA was discovered. This takes us to information theory.
  • P64, Information according to Shannon. His 1948 paper. Reduce the ‘noise’ in a signal through error-correction tricks. Transmitting a message involves uncertainty, via noise, and this amounts to ignorance; conversely information is knowledge. The mathematics of information is analogous to that of entropy. So here’s information entropy, another kind. Information is associated with a reduction of disorder. There are problems with information being more or less useful depending on the recipient. Shannon ignored ‘meaning’…
  • P67, Living systems are informational systems. John Maynard Smith emphasized to Dawkins how information was to the key in biology during the 20th century. Biological information has value only in the right context. Complexity science helps us measure information. Santa Fe again. Rovelli has extended these ideas. … Biological systems perform computation.
  • P70, Living systems are computational systems. Living systems must solve various problems: find energy, avoid predators, etc etc. Evading the three Ds—death, decay, and disorder. Requires gathering information about surroundings and determining appropriate responses. Biological computation is called cognition. Examples of pursuing food.
  • A system that can exercise control is called a cybernetic system. And can be said to be teleological, in an unconscious sense. These days the word agency is preferred. Norbert Wiener’s 1948 book on Cybernetics defined the field, with feedback, causal loops… Further questions remain, p73.

[[ Gist so far: rather dense, and obviously borrowing ideas from everyone in sight, but by the same token, a valuable summary of ideas about life that have been percolating for decades… even if modern writers don’t use the same terms anymore. ]]

Part Two: Evolution

Ch6, Natural Selection and Knowledge Creation, p77

  • Lesson so far: the laws of nature not only allow for life, in certain conditions they also necessitate life. We still need to understand ‘agency’. Life is defined in thermodynamic terms. 78t. This ‘agency’ is what philosophers have called ‘teleology’.
  • P78, Characteristics of Agency. Inanimate things are subject to physics in a way that organisms are not. Laplace was wrong, 79t. The question now is, how did biological information and computation emerge? We have to think about free will and consciousness in that context. We need not resort to supernatural intervention. And how significant is life in the grand scheme of things?
  • P80, The Need for Knowledge. A sentient system needs knowledge about how the universe works. We use a systematic procedure called science. Is there a limit to knowledge? Wigner on mathematics. Later, Deutsch. 80b. A 2019 TED talk. Quantum computing and the many-worlds interpretation of QM. Quote 81t. Dennett approved. Other: Kurzweil. Dyson. Kevin Kelly. Life must also extract the free energy. For which it must possess a map or model of the environment.
  • P82, A Unifying Theory of Reality. Knowledge creation integrates thermodynamics, information theory, and evolution. A theory of everything. Should explain everything. We’ll see consilience, cf Wilson. Based on a sound epistemology. An undervalued branch of philosophy. Let’s explore this further.
  • P83, The Problem of Epistemology. What is knowledge and how do we acquire it? Beliefs about the world that are in some way correct. Not a trivial matter. Through most of history people believed religious books. But there are many, different, such books. How do we know what to believe? The Greeks considered this question but it wasn’t until the Enlightenment in the 19th century that this was formally addressed. They focused on experience, qualitative and subjective. Even knowing that our senses can deceive us. Per Shannon, knowledge reduces our ignorance about the world, 84.8. How do we do this? The ‘skeptics’ gave up and declared there’s no such thing as objective knowledge, or truth. But they, and the current postmodernists, are misguided. We can be certain of the knowledge acquired via science. Science has done in three centuries what religion and pure philosophy have never done. Science entails a practical method to always move us incrementally to the idea of absolute certainty and truth. Karl Popper was one of the first who saw this.
  • P85, Karl Popper’s Epistemological Epiphanies. Popper wanted to redefine epistemology as the philosophy of science. He saw that problems create knowledge. Problems generate hypotheses, conjectures, etc. Some will be in error. We use evidence and inference, in an algorithm to find solutions. Popper called this algorithm conjecture and refutation. Same as hypothesis testing. In effect how evolution works. And AI. Solutions always lead to new problems. But all those solutions are recorded, and become accumulated knowledge, genuine progress. At the same time science is a creative process. Bayesian updating. Beliefs are constantly updated. But how did human acquire all their practical knowledge before science came along? Popper perceived this too: that science is just a refinement of whatever that earlier method was.
  • P89, Adaptive Learning = Hypothesis Testing. And that earlier method has been called ‘trial and error.’ Since life is constantly presenting us with new challenges. If our intuitions don’t work, we adjust our ‘theory’ and try again. We don’t know the correct solution in advance. And so on… Now there’s the Bayesian brain hypothesis, 91t. It’s also an approach to machine learning in AI systems. And these are knowledge generating processes. But how did this happen before brains emerged?
  • P92, Evolution is a knowledge creation process. The answer is DNA. Ontogenetic learning; phylogenetic learning. Theories are highly competitive. Popper understood that science is a Darwinian process.
  • P94, Evolutionary Epistemology: A Unifying Paradigm. Evolution, cognition, and science. Donald Campbell in the 1960s. Evolutionary processes are learning processes, and vice versa. Adaptation and scientific knowledge. Evolution is not random, as creationists think. A lot of ideas about how these systems interrelate.
  • P95, Adaptations Encode Knowledge. To be knowledge, information has to be about something. Examples: a dolphin’s streamlining contains knowledge of hydrodynamics. What problem is life trying to solve? Call it survival, or persistence, or evading equilibrium. All mean roughly the same thing.
  • P96, Nature Selects the Most Stable Configurations. How this problem is mocked by creationists like Ann Coulter. Dawkins countered with the idea of survival of the stable.
  • P97, Universal Bayesianism Updates Evolutionary Epistemology. Dennett and the intentional stance. Deutsch in Fabric of Reality.
  • P100, Life is a signal among molecular noise. John Campbell’s Universal Darwinism. We can also call all of this universal Bayesianism.
  • P101, Putting all the puzzle pieces together. An equation, 101.7. Carlo Rovelli. John Maynard Smith.
  • P104, Origins finally explained. Diagram p105. …
  • P106, Evolution as an inference engine. Emergent computation. Teleology; problems create progress.

Ch7, A Unifying Theory of Reality, p109

  • This is a theory of open-ended knowledge creation. It explains emergent phenomena that TOEs (Theories of Everything) like string theory don’t, which dismiss them as epiphenomena. Those are reductionist positions in which only particle physics is real; everything else are constructions of the mind for survival purposes. [[ This is what Hoffman says, in part. ]] Quoting Brian Greene about how life and consciousness is fleeting. In contrast David Deutsch thinks there is no limit to growth of knowledge and purpose. Can only one be right? [[ but Greene allows for ‘levels’ above the reductionist particle physics. ]]
  • P111, Unification over Reduction. As we send objects into space we’re creating examples of anti-accretion. Cf Sara Walker, 111.7. 112.5: the unifying theory of reality is at once a theory of cosmic evolution and a theory of intelligence. Recall reductionist philosophies. Quoting Greene as paradoxical.
  • P113, Life is not a fleeting moment. There’s a distinction between adaptive complexity and ordinary dissipative structures in nature. We assume that if religion asserts something special about life, then science must say the opposite; e.g. Sean Carroll 114.8. Deutsch disagrees.
  • P115, The Universe: A Work in Progress. So purpose or progress in nature is not a paradox but a solution to a paradox. Seth Lloyd doesn’t think organized complexity is transient. The nature of the universe is computational. Kurzweil talks of destiny. These ideas may look religious but are not. Christof Koch. The laws of physics favored the emergence of consciousness. Goes back to de Chardin. Bergson, Morgan.
  • P117, Demystifying evolutionary progress. Realize that life is simply ‘adaptive complexity’, a mechanical process, not a mystical one. So there are three scientific philosophies that are actually just different perspectives of a single cosmic narrative: Universal Darwinism, evolutionary epistemology, and universal Bayesianism. These result in a diverse set of phenomena that are often studied separately. The framework, EE-UD-UB, provide a consilience.
  • P119, Naturalizing cosmic teleology with natural selection. All of this is consistent with Darwin’s evolution. … Kauffman again. Kurzweil. Yet some don’t accept that natural selection inevitably leads to greater complexity and intelligence. Yet these objections can be seen as warding off any hints of religion…
  • P122, The case against evolutionary progress. Stephen Jay Gould. To him life was a drunken sailor’s random walk, with no drive toward higher complexity. Dawkins countered with two arguments. Gould also insisted that human-level intelligence was merely a product of chance; no such thing as progress. Lewin again, 123. Spencer, Hitler, Dennett’s universal acid. Strength in diversity is the point as much as survival of the fittest.
  • P124, Making the case for evolutionary progress. In some cases species do get simpler; they don’t get more complex. Robert Wright. Gould was right about many things but wrong in his interpretation of the larger story. He made two mistakes, concerning complexity and individual organisms. These will be addressed in chapters 8 and 9. The ‘modern synthesis’ has been extended over and over, and needs a new name: the integrated evolutionary synthesis. The rest of this book will use this to give us a proper ‘theory of everything.’

Ch8, The Integrated Evolutionary Synthesis, p127

  • Dennett quote. We start with the second law of thermodynamics. To survive requires acquiring ‘free energy’ by acquiring information about the world a creature inhabits. Uncertainty-reducing information. Knowledge is power. So does humanity’s desire to expand into space reflect this biological imperative.
  • P128, The power of prediction. Acquiring such knowledge is like Bayesian inference. Inference itself is close to a theory of everything. Pinker in 2017 on the Second Law. Life, or adaptive complexity, addresses entropy, or disorder, without any conscious intent. Even without brains.
  • P129, Phylogenetic and Ontogenetic Learning. The former is generational learning. Competitive learning. Survival of the fittest. The latter is individual learning. The two correspond to competitive vs cooperative evolution. Mutation is an inventor and natural selection is a pruner. [[ lots of analogies like this throughout ]]
  • P131, Weeding out unstable energy flow channels. Natural selection is doing global error correction. [[ someone else used the term ‘filter’ ]] Information is transferred from the world into life.
  • P132, We are a way for the cosmos to know itself. Literally. Tegmark. Quote from Dennett about the best single idea anyone ever had – Darwin’s. We’re in a cosmic battle not unlike wars between good and evil. Order and chaos, life and entropy.
  • P134, Evolution’s arrow emerges from knowledge accumulation. Back to the issue of complexity of life. Life changes depending on environment. A theory, or life, should be as simple as possible, but no simpler. Different niches on earth require different complexities… quote Olivia Judson: give energetic epochs. Problem spaces and solution spaces. Examples and details. Arms races. Red Queen. Some species must get more complex just to survive.
  • P137, The laws of life. Life becomes more energy efficient. David Wolpert. The IES avoid the fitness tautology by speaking of energy-extraction. The constructal law, from Adrian Bejan. 138.3. This wasn’t understood until theories of information and computation matured…
  • P139, Redefining fitness in thermodynamic terms. So natural selection maximizes fitness by improving energy flow and predictive models. Dissipative fitness. Consider how brains do tasks that supercomputers fail at, at a fraction of the cost.
  • P141, Evolution increases empowerment. The idea of empowerment.
  • P142, The relationships between entropy and uncertainty. Recall Boltzmann and entropy. What works, persists.
  • P143, The good regulator theorem and the law of requite variety. [[ A recurring theme is how this idea over here is really the same as that idea over there. ]] Ashby’s law. A system has to have as many responses as there are challenges in the environment. E.g. cats and mice.
  • P145, Niche emergence drives complexification. So why do niches diversify? Wilson Diversity of Life. Gaia; the need to leave the planet.
  • P148, Energy flow as a measure of complexity. 2001 bk by Eric Chaisson: energy rate density. Lewis, Complexity. Sara Walker.
  • P149, A new measure of complexity. Phi. From information theory.

Ch9, Hierarchical Emergence, p151

  • This theory of reality implies that life will spread through the cosmos at large. Not in spite of challenges, but because of them. Adaptation.
  • P152, A new spin on the second law. Energy flow. Stuart Kauffman calls this the fourth law of thermodynamics: a universe that maximized entropy, or minimized free energy, at the fastest rate possible will evolve toward a state that is increasingly complex, organized, alive, and intelligent. 153t. Despite the famous second law.
  • P154, One cohesive cosmic story. These ideas go back….
  • P155, Poetic meta-naturalism. A new scientific worldview. Sean Carroll. This idea is similar but different to his. Greene is too reductionist. Author argues that nature does have a purpose, to wake up and become aware. This involves loops and levels.
  • P157, We are loops. Karl Friston. Dynamic equilibrium. Attractors. The living state is a loop. Citing Hofstadter on ‘strange loops.’ We’re recursive creatures. This involves self-reference.
  • P159, Self-reference. Emergence and complexity. Chaisson again. Pal Davies. GEB. A ‘strange loop’ is a loop that crosses levels.
  • P161, We have levels. Adaptive systems are nested systems. Examples. A hierarchical modular architecture. Units made of units all the way down. Social organisms. Chart p163: atoms/molecules/cells/ etc. These levels will continue to mind and beyond. These evolutionary transitions correspond to strong emergence. Weak emergence happens wherever there is a pattern. Nested series of phase transitions.
  • P165, Evolving beyond earth. The idea that life’s emergence was ‘written into the fabric of the universe’ is no longer shocking. How far is it inevitable? To evolve beyond its planet of origin life needs intelligence. We need a recursive self-organization. Recall the two types of learning. Ideas of self-organization have been avoided by mainstream biologists. To avoid teleology. They need not worry.
  • P167, Blind variation and selective retention. This is just a variation and selection mechanism. Substrate independence.
  • P167, The meaning is in the metaphor. Self-similarity. Reflection principle. …
  • P169, The biosphere is an autocatalytic set. Seth Lloyd’s bk. Kauffman. Wilson. Superorganisms. Transition theory. Bk by Smith and Morowitz.
  • P171, Synergistic collective configurations. … How the biosphere is following a similar evolutionary trajectory as life itself.
  • P173, All species matter. We can see how Gould and his critics can both be right. Complexity goes with diversity. Internet. The ladder of progress Gould was worried about is really a web. No superior or inferior. Similarly individuals in society, 174b.
  • P175, Steps on the cosmic ladder. About Gobekli Tepe in Turkey. Harari about it. Evidence of cooperation. Big picture 176.5. The trend toward higher complexity: 176.9. Still, reductionist scientists resist this.
  • P176, The Gaia Hypothesis. Still, there is no conscious intent involved. The biosphere is self-regulating. The Gaia hypothesis. Named by William Golding. DS Wilson uses God as a metaphor for Gaia. Recall how earlier forms of life created oxygen.
  • P180, The biosphere becomes an organism. But it isn’t yet; it doesn’t reproduce, etc. West’s book Scale.
  • P181, Meta-evolution. How social factors are selected. And now we have the Internet of Things. And how it and humans will evolve. A global brain or infosphere. And would this be conscious? We first consider how minds and mental models emerge from brain.

Part Three: Transcendence

Ch10, The Mind-Body Mystery, p185

  • John Wheeler and the ‘it from bit’ movement. The universe is a computer. That idea merges with the ideas in this book… and Wilson et al. The Great Consilience.
  • P186, The self-organizing universe wakes up. The reductionist program (Tyson, Greene) is now challenged by these new ideas. Davies, Gould, etc etc. More names! 187bff. Avoiding war with religion, yet again.
  • P188, What is consciousness? Nagel and the bat. Descartes.
  • P189, What is real? The Matrix. Elon Musk.
  • P190, I think, therefore I am. Descartes: Dualism. Animals have no souls. Mind-body problem. The alternative: materialism. Denial of free will: Hossenfelder. Deutsch disagrees. Sam Harris. (Author thinks the denialists contradict themselves.) The courts, awards… Sara Walker.
  • P193, The logic of Laplace. The idea that Newton’s laws of motion determine everything. Everything predictable, in principle. Determinism. (Author thinks this entails all sorts of paradoxes.) We would all be delusional. Jerry Fodor objected. but determinism slowly gave way…
  • P195, The slow death of determinism. To indeterminism. Heisenberg. You can’t measure everything, even in principle. Then came chaotic systems. Thus, no such thing as Laplace’s demon. But this doesn’t rescue free will.
  • P197, Laplace’s demon is truly evil. Remove belief in free will can lead to immoral behavior. Thus the evil demon. Recall behaviorism. It was replaced by…
  • P198, Cognitive science saves the day. The idea that the brain is an information processing system. Studied via fMRI. Crick and Koch. Then integrated information theory.
  • P200, Consciousness as integrated information. … but it leads to a big problem.
  • P202, Integrated information theory’s panpsychism problem. Namely, that all matter is imbued with mind. Koch embraces the idea. Author says this is wrong because…

Ch11, Causal Emergence and Free Will, p205

  • Sara Walker quote. We’re coming to the ‘romance’ part. Beware of anthropomorphization. We’ll discuss counterfactuals…
  • P206, The many meanings of “mind.” Collective. Conscious. Unconscious. They’re all about information processing. You can have agency w/o consciousness. Free will requires the latter. Why Carroll’s poetic naturalism isn’t sufficient.
  • P208, Levels of agent causation. About effortful control, as opposed to purposeful-looking behavior that is executed w/o conscious effort. Ideas of top-down causation were largely dismissed. Quote Dennett, then saying it’s not true today. Roger Sperry, quote 211.
  • P212, Unconscious agency: the first level of control. Paul Davies and Sara Walker. The origin of life. Information control. Strong emergence. …
  • P214, The macrostate is what matters. Erik Hoel. Kevin Mitchell. Instead of ‘mind’ think ‘information’. Anil Seth. …Hofstadter, I am a Strange Loop. How you can envision the world while your eyes are closed.
  • P219, How brains bring about observers. Smry 219.6. ff. A key is self-modeling…

Ch12, The Strange Loop That Spawns the Self, p223

  • Turing showed how a simple machine could solve any problem, given time and memory. Turing machines. Godel proved that view was wrong, in his incompleteness theorem.
  • P224, The unprovable paradox. Based on the liar’s paradox. “I am lying.” The truth of the statement can’t be settled. Godel went further, but constructing statements that were true but unprovable. “This statement has no proof.”
  • P226, The mind is not a Turing machine. So some truths exist that cannot be computed. Thus mathematics is never complete, just as reality is incomplete, forever in work. This was a blow to reductionism. Penrose in his 1989 book suggested the mind therefore is doing something beyond raw computation. How do minds do that? Understand? Presumably via conscious experience. Penrose also assumed the brain must be a quantum computer, an argument not taken seriously. Max Tegmark has argued against it.
  • P228, Self-reference as the source of self. Hofstadter’s 1979 book keyed off this idea. He spoke of the self-engulfing television, 229. Judea Pearl: consciousness is having a model of yourself.
  • P230, The neural correlates of consciousness. How the brain is organized. Hierarchical. Feedback.
  • P231, Feedback loops create consciousness. Koch.
  • P233, Global neuronal workspace theory. Dennett’s 91 bk.
  • P235, Integrated world modeling theory. Other ideas…talking past each other.
  • P237, Clearing the confusion about free will. Recall the experiments showing the brain decides before ‘we’ decide. More about Koch. Cotard’s syndrome.
  • P240, The curious compatibility of destiny and free will. …

Ch13, Transcendence and Enlightenment, p245

  • Quote Harold Morowitz. Summary so far.
  • P247, The global mind wakes up. Multiple realizability means substrate independence; minds can be realized on different mediums… The internet isn’t aware of itself, yet,  But a global mind may eventually emerge. We can’t know what, but something new will emerge.
  • P249, Loops + Levels = Lift Off. Life will continue to expand into the cosmos. Kurzweil’s singularity. Post-biological, or hyperbiological. The process will accelerate. Recall Dyson’s sphere. Can this go on forever?
  • P251, A happy ending means no ending at all. Perhaps there’s no heat death or big freeze at all. Seth Lloyd. Deutsch addresses dark energy in Beginning of Infinity. Kauffman.
  • P253, Reaching a maximal state of complexity. What is the ultimate result? Perhaps something indistinguishable from god. Maximal complexity. Paul Davies, Sean Carroll, Lee Smolin.
  • P255, A natural worldview for the spiritual and the secular. Thus we do live in a universe that is progressing to some kind of ‘goal.’ There’s a cosmic teleology. But entirely natural. Even mechanistic. No external metaphysical source. Thomas Nagel, 2012, Mind and Cosmos, invoked ‘nonphysical laws’ which was an error. What is considered natural will change over time. Like the multiverse. Despite Popper’s rule about unfalsifiability. All the claims of the creationists go away. …Are we in a simulation?
  • P258, The fine-tuning problem. Goes back to the 1970s. Dennett in Darwin’s Dangerous Idea. How to explain this? It invites deism. Even Dawkins is OK with a god who devised the laws of physics and then sat back and watched. But it’s not required.
  • P260, Fine-tuning solutions. Two versions of the anthropic principle. Sean Carroll allows that the strong principle boosts theism. But how would such a god have emerged? The weak principle argues that if the universe’s parameters were different, we wouldn’t be here to wonder about them.
  • P262, The multiverse conundrum. The problem disappears in a multiverse. In which universes are isolated. Max Tegmark is happy with this; others are bothered by the idea that every possible universe therefore exists. Including those that have intelligent designers.
  • P264, Cosmological natural selection. Which principle aligns with the narrative of this book? In a multiverse many universes would be lifeless. We’d still have to explain how we were ‘lucky’ to be in one with life. So we’re back to the strong principle. A third explanation is cosmological natural selection. Hawking and singularities. Smolin’s baby universes. Dennett. A Darwinian multiverse. Which would happen to favor universes with intelligent life. Paul Sorensen and others. Guth and Rees. This amounts to the teleological universe again. So maybe there is a god, one that resulted from an evolutionary process. Or maybe that process is god: an algorithm for eternal recursive emergence.
  • P268, Making sense of quantum mechanics. Some of its ideas are common knowledge… Is reality random, or probabilistic? Seemingly so. There are two counter-ideas. The many-worlds interpretation. Which would mean that all logically possible universes exist…
  • P270, Refuting the many-worlds hypothesis. By the same statistical argument – our existence would be so unlikely. The other way to take QM into account is via ‘decoherence.’ It explains why things are still there even when we look away. Quantum Darwinism. It will be a true theory of everything.
  • P272, The quantum-to-classical transition—a form of natural selection. Q Darwinism explains how the classical world emerges from the quantum world. Via environment-induced superselection. Zurek. Carlo Rovelli. QBism.
  • P275, What does a self-organizing universe mean for humanity? All of this calls into question the notion that you can’t derive ethics or morality from nature. That is, intelligence is consistent with the cosmic drive to expand and fill the universe with intelligence. Be part of the grand awakening of the cosmos.
  • P276, The road to Omega. Thus: we should do what’s good for the living network, including the biosphere. This is a moral and spiritual obligation. (Which has nothing to do with the supernatural.) Quotes by Sagan and Einstein. So what is the meaning of life? 276b. What can we do? Be aware; be meta-aware. Make your choices consistent with long-term goals. Common interests; minimize conflict and promote cooperation. A cosmic worldview, or cosmic perspective. Sagan again. The greatest good for the greatest number of people. Compassionate and progressive. 278. Psychedelic experiences help. Hyperconnection. Embrace these challenges and find solutions for our problems. Knowledge is enlightenment, transcendence, and power. Be aware. You are a cosmic imperative.

Finally, noting some of the many books Azarian mentions, especially those in my library: Kauffman, At Home in the Universe; Lewis, Complexity; Began, The Evolution of Everything; Paul Davies, The Demon in the Machine; Holland on Emergence; Seth Lloyd, Programming the Universe; Sara Walker; David Sloan Wilson, Geoffrey West, Scale; Roy Gould; Lee Smolin, the Life of the Cosmos.

Posted in Book Notes, Cosmology, Epistemology, Science | Comments Off on Bobby Azarian: THE ROMANCE OF REALITY

Again, Living in History

This isn’t about Trump or MAGA per se. I suspect most people don’t realize how we’re all witnessing historic shifts in American and world politics in the past few years. What many of us are not noticing will be written up in future history books.

NY Times, opinion by Carlos Lozada, today: America Has Become a Dangerous Nation [gift link]

We had a good run — some eight decades or so — but it is clear by now that the United States has ceased to be the leader of the free world. A successor for that post has not been named, and it appears unlikely that the European Union, or NATO, or whatever constitutes “the West” these days will promote from within. The job might even be eliminated, one more reduction in force courtesy of President Trump.

Rather than leading the free world, the United States is striding across the globe seemingly free of restraint, forethought or strategy, exerting its power because it can. In a matter of months, the Trump administration has captured Venezuela’s president and tossed him into jail in Brooklyn and has pummeled Iran’s theocratic leadership in a war that is ricocheting across the Middle East and upending the global economy; now the president says he will have “the honor of taking Cuba” next. Trump in his second term is like Michael Corleone in “The Godfather,” settling all the family business.

Very long piece; gift link provided. A couple more samples.

The United States wants the benefits of hegemony, but without accepting the responsibilities — ensuring collective security, promoting economic openness, nurturing vital alliances — that come with it. Trump doesn’t care to be a superpower; he just likes to wield superpowers. He wants to operate in the world constrained only by “my own morality” and “my own mind,” as he told The Times recently.

Lozada recalls a similar transition: “when we were shifting from a Cold War stalemate to a period of unrivaled U.S. primacy”.

In this light, Trump’s fixation on how America is getting “ripped off” by the rest of the world — whether through trade deficits, the loss of manufacturing plants, or insufficient military spending by NATO members — is not just the mantra of a real-estate guy obsessed with negotiating a better deal. It is also the resentment that dominant powers always have toward weaker ones, as Robert Gilpin, an international relations theorist, explained in “War and Change in World Politics,” his classic 1981 study of what makes hegemons come and go.

… For Trump, the problem with leading the free world is that the free world gets a free ride.

Skipping a lot. The essay concludes:

We are not entering a post-American world, one in which the United States recedes from the stage or stops wielding its military might. Far from it. But we may be entering a post-America world, one in which the meaning of America, the principles and values the country has long stood for — sometimes in reality, sometimes in aspiration — are fading. And the loss of that America may prove just as damaging, and far more lasting, than any harm Donald Trump’s excursions can inflict.

And this last thought certainly echoes my repeated comments that modern conservatives, especially MAGA, are less and less interested in the principles upon which the US was founded, than they are in protecting themselves and oppressing others.

\\\

For example. They really do want to destroy non-Christians. None of this Constitutional nonsense for them.

Right Wing Watch, Kyle Mantyla, 23 Mar 2026: By Any Means Necessary: Christian Nationalists Call For The Destruction Of Their Political Enemies

Last week, Christian nationalists Joshua Haymes and Brooks Potteiger urged their fellow right-wing Christians to pray “imprecatory psalms” against James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate from Texas.

Talarico is a Presbyterian seminarian who has openly cited his Christian faith in support of his progressive political positions, much to the outrage right-wing Christian nationalists.

Potteiger, who was the pastor at the church attended by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in Nashville, Tennessee, and will soon take over the Washington, DC church founded by Christian nationalist Doug Wilson, warned that Talarico is “a wolf” who is working to “distort what Christianity is in order to lead people away from Christ, toward the teaching of demons.”

As such, Potteiger and Haymes encouraged the use of “imprecatory psalms” against Talarico, which are prayers asking God to pour out his destruction upon one’s enemies.

“I pray that God kills him,” Haymes declared. “Ultimately, that means killing his heart and raising him up to new life in Christ … If it would not be within God’s will to do so, stop him by any means necessary.”

And that’s just the first example. Anything not part of their fundamentalist religious ideology is “evil” and must be destroyed. (And other religions, like Islam, think other things are evil and must be destroyed. This is why religion is dangerous.)

\\\

Asking the question yet again.

Washington Post, opinion by Jim Geraghty, today: There’s a reason for MAGA’s 100% support of Trump, subtitled “MAGA is standing by Trump and his war, with help from a polling fault.”

Conservative journalist Christopher Caldwell, hitherto a strong supporter of Donald Trump, is so deeply disappointed with the president’s decision to launch a war against the Iranian regime that he concluded in the Spectator: “The attack on Iran is so wildly inconsistent with the wishes of his own base, so diametrically opposed to their reading of the national interest, that it is likely to mark the end of Trumpism as a project.”

And so on. Let’s jump down and see the writer identifies a reason for that poll (even if that result wasn’t really 100%).

Well, here’s what he finds. Basically: those who disapproved of Trump way back when stopped calling themselves MAGA, or even Republican, and so aren’t being counted in polls like this.

If you’re a Trump supporter who is upset or wary about the Iran war or the resulting impact on gas prices … maybe you’re not as inclined to identify as MAGA to a pollster lately.

That’s why we shouldn’t expect to find many MAGA supporters expressing their opposition to Trump’s decisions on Iran or much else. When people in this demographic disagree strongly enough, eventually they just stop calling themselves MAGA.

There is no “Trumpism” without Trump, and thus it is difficult to buy into Caldwell’s argument that the president is betraying some clear preexisting set of values. To the extent “Trumpism” as a philosophy exists, a core tenet appears to be: “Always trust the guy in charge, because he knows what he is doing and is playing seven-level chess.”

\\\

Briefly noted.

Posted in Conservative Resistance, History, Human Nature, Politics, Religion | Comments Off on Again, Living in History

Morality Wars

Widely reported today.

Mediaite, 22 Mar 2026: Trump Declares ‘The Death of Iran’ — Then Brands Democratic Party America’s ‘Greatest Enemy’ in Stunning Post

“Now with the death of Iran, the greatest enemy America has is the Radical Left, Highly Incompetent, Democrat Party!” Trump wrote.

So he’s declaring half the country to be the enemy of “America” — which he implicitly defines as MAGA and his supporters. Doesn’t he realize that, at least nominally, he’s supposed to be the president of the entire United States? Apparently not. Or is he declaring a civil war?

\\\

Here is Trump pandering to his people.

Mirror, Mikey Smith in Washington DC, today: Donald Trump demands election rigging plan be approved ‘for Jesus’ in deranged rant.

Subtitle: Giving a speech in Memphis, Tennessee, Trump said he was going to order Republicans to withhold funding from the Department of Homeland Security until the Senate passes his bill to pass the so-called “SAVE America Act”

The reason Democrats don’t support the SAVE act, aside from the difficulties it imposes on people the Republicans would rather not vote, is that Republicans refuse to include provisions requiring ICE agents to follow the Constitution. Maybe the Democrats should ask why can’t they follow the Constitution for Jesus?

\\\

How can MAGA claim to be Christian while supporting Trump? A long answer.

HuffPost, Caroline Bologna, 21 Mar 2026: ‘Vertical Morality’ Might Describe Why MAGA Christians Seem So Unchristian, subtitled “This framework reveals why some MAGA-aligned Christians act in ways that contradict Jesus’ teachings.”

For many Americans, the gap between Christian teachings and MAGA politics is baffling. How can people profess faith in Jesus ― who preached love, mercy and care for the oppressed ― while supporting policies that punish immigrants, demonize LGBTQ people and glorify cruelty?

The key to understanding this apparent contradiction might lie in something called “vertical morality.”

This ethical framework measures righteousness not by goodness to others, but by something more simplistic.

Defining things, quoting activist Rachel Klinger Cain.

“Vertical morality is just how I describe what’s called ‘divine command theory’ in metaethics,” she said. “I’m a teacher, so I’m always looking for ways to make complicated concepts a little more simple. It’s basically the idea that morality comes from authority above, which is what I was taught when I was raised within conservative Christianity.”

Vertical morality stands in contrast to the concept of horizontal morality, another term Klinger Cain has broken down in her videos.

“Horizontal morality prioritizes the well-being of our neighbors, communities and personal relationships,” Ajoy explained. “We act in ways that cause the least amount of harm to those around us, regardless of beliefs. Someone with vertical morality may help someone in need because they believe that’s what God wants them to do, versus someone with horizontal morality may help that same person for the benefit of the person that needs help.”

Other key bits:

“Evangelicals are taught that all morality comes from God and therefore true goodness can only be spread by obeying God, even if it harms people around us,” Ajoy said. “This isn’t necessarily a bad thing if pleasing God manifests by following the teachings of Jesus ― loving our neighbors, loving our enemies, promoting peace and taking care of the poor, the widow, the immigrant and standing up for the marginalized. It becomes dangerous when Christians weaponize this vertical morality for power, which is exactly what we’re seeing with the Christian nationalism in the Trump administration.”

In the current era, conservative Christian nationalists see anyone on their political team as good and on God’s side, while those who oppose them as evil and satanic.

“What’s interesting is that Jesus taught a compassionate, flexible, grace-filled view of what it means to live a life loving God,” Levings noted. “But today’s conservative Christianity is less influenced by Jesus and more by the Old Testament and Paul.”

Exactly the point I’ve made over and over. And, this attitude:

“It predates Jesus, and it’s disinterested in evidence, science, progress, research, experience or the inclusion of other worldviews,” Levings said. “Theonomy is part of the Reformed theology that’s been growing in the evangelical movement for the past 30 years.”

And from author April Ajoy:

“The problem with MAGA Christians is that they promote policies that often go against the teachings of Jesus,” Ajoy said. “They justify it by promoting a view of God that is vengeful. They demonize all immigrants as criminals, all queer people as predators, all leftists as violent and all Democrats as satanic ― with no evidence to back these claims. And because they believe in a literal hell and a God-ordained calling to make the nation Christian, they justify cruelty in the name of ‘tough love.’”

Quite a long article, hitting familiar themes, from immigrants to the Ku Klux Klan. It’s about hierarchy. Morals come from God. Believers next. And unbelievers on some lower plane. Simplistic, tribal.

Of course, morality does not come from God; it evolved over hundreds of thousands of years because it enabled those to accomplish more, to cooperate, to develop larger towns and civilizations, greater trade networks and contacts with the outer world, than the xenophobic, superstitious tribalists who never did. The deeper explanation, which the article does not recognize, is that the motives of these vertical moralists reflect base human nature, while the horizontal moralists reflect a mature human nature, analogous to the many ways this span has been described. Deep in their guts, conservatives are more comfortable with the OT than with whatever Jesus said, which some now dismiss as being too “woke.”

\\\

And again.

The Atlantic, Peter Wehner, 23 Mar 2026: How Trump Killed Conservatism, subtitled “The president has cultivated and encouraged the ugliest passions within the GOP, dousing the embers of hate with kerosene.”

The “Make America Great Again” movement is the beating heart of the GOP, the dominant political party in America—which makes MAGA the most important political movement in the world. And that is why some recent developments within the MAGA movement are so disquieting.

Going on with examples from today’s young Republicans.

\\\

Robert Reich predicts.

Robert Reich, today: Why He’ll Surrender Soon, subtitled “But he’ll call it a great victory”

No one knows what Trump is going to do from minute to minute, least of all Trump. But it’s looking ever more likely he’ll be exiting Iran within days, declaring his “excursion” into it (as he’s termed his war) a major victory — and then changing the subject.

Because he’s done this kind of thing before. And his supporters will believe that he actually accomplished something, because he told them so.

Posted in Conservative Resistance, conservatives, Human Nature, Politics | Comments Off on Morality Wars

Skiffy Flix: It Came from Outer Space

Returning to our ongoing series.

It Came from Outer Space is a 1953 film directed by Jack Arnold (who did some similar movies in the same era) and based on a story treatment by Ray Bradbury (not a published short story). Despite the poster above, the DVD I watched was in black and white, and there was no 3-D effect (I wonder how they did a 3-D effect in black and white).

This film has similarities with others skiffy films of its era, yet it has certain charms, and it ends much more positively that most of those others.

Here’s the Wikipedia entry for this film.

Summary of plot:

  • John Putnam, an amateur astronomer and magazine article writer living in a small house in Sand Rock AZ, is looking at the stars with his girlfriend/fiancee Ellen Fields when they see a huge meteorite streak past overhead.
  • Putnam finds the landing site — a huge crater. He climbs down and sees some kind of ship, perhaps, half-buried, with a hatch that opens, exposing a creature with a single eye. The hatch closes, and something triggers a landslide into the crater. Putnam escapes, but the ship is buried.
  • Meanwhile we see POV shots from one of the aliens — a fish-eye lens view of the desert surroundings — and the glitter it leaves as a trail. Later, as Putnam and girlfriend drive back home, the monster appears in the road a blocks their car. Putnam has a gun, and the car as a spotlight by the review mirror, but they see nothing.
  • Putnam insists he saw something, perhaps even life, but no one believes him, not the reporters who show up the next day, not even his astronomer friend Dr. Snell.
  • Driving down the highway, they meet two linemen, asking if they’ve seen or heard anything. No, but yes: Putnam climbs their ladder to hear some weird hum.
  • The two linemen, George and Frank, encounter the monster as it blocks the highway and then attacks them. On a hunch, Putnam drives back to find their truck abandoned. George is missing then appears, zombielike; later the same happens to Frank.
  • Putnam drives to town and appeals the sheriff. They drive out the to the site where the trucks was, and find nothing [[ a standard sf/f ploy of someone seeing something fantastic and then having all evidence disappear ]].
  • Putnam encounters the linemen back in town, but they act like zombies, asking him to leave them alone, keep away, give us time, your friends (the real Frank and George) are alive.
  • And so on. Putnam pleads with the sheriff; two women claim their husbands have disappeared; electrical equipment is being stolen; Dr. Snell goes missing.
  • Putnam gathers that the aliens crashed on Earth accidentally and just want time to repair their ship. They’re doing so by impersonating the humans they encounter so they can go into town to get supplies. They just need time. Putnam manages to hold off the posse who would attack the ship in the crater.
  • A connection to the crater is found in a nearby mine; Ellen goes into it, determined to try to help, and is caught herself. As is Putnam, who sees a zombie version of himself. Insisting he see the alien, he sees a huge blob-like creature with a single eye. They’ve conquered space, it claims, in 1000 years, and can’t let their work fall into the wrong hands. Putnam makes a deal to stop the posse if the real people are set free.
  • Putnam sets dynamite in the mind to block that entrance. It goes off, and soon thereafter the ship rises up out of the crater and streaks away into the sky.
  • Reflecting, Putnam tells his girlfriend that this wasn’t the right time, but– they’ll be back.

Comments and quibbles

  • The plot here is fairly schematic, with a difference at the end. Hero sees aliens; evidence isn’t to be found; no one believes him. Until strange things start to happen. In this case, hero contacts aliens and understands their purpose, which is relatively noble and nonthreatening, and holds off the posse of townspeople ready to kill them. There’s no bringing in the military in their tanks, as in other skiffy flix of this era. This optimistic ending is due to Ray Bradbury, who wrote an elaborate treatment for the film and insisted on this ending.
  • There are some standard sf cliches: the theremin music, the alien as a hideous blob.
  • A couple distinctive effects are the POV shots of the alien through a fish-eye lens. And, the glitter left behind its path.
  • This is one of a group of 1950s science fiction movies I think of as “Desert Skiffy Flix,” Hollywood pictures that were filmed out in the Mojave Desert, which is only an hour two north of Hollywood. The proximate location might also explain the prevalence of Western movies and TV shows in the ’40s and into the ’60s. And of course numerous TV shows make the trek to film episodes in the desert: Trek, Twilight Zone, Mission: Impossible.
  • There are a lot of Joshua Trees in the areas where this was filmed. I grew up in the high desert town of Apple Valley, which is why these movies (and TV shows filmed out in the desert) resonate with me. (I’ll compile them sometime.) I had thought such trees were confined to parts of the Mojave Desert, though the movie claims to be set in Arizona. But Wikipedia indicates that their range does extend into Arizona. (An academic point.)
  • This was the era when professional astronomers, even linemen, wore loose, baggy suits.
  • It’s curious that since girlfriend Ellen Fields isn’t married to him yet, she’s still there at his house at midnight in the first scene when they go out to look at the stars — and see the meteor.
  • It’s also curious in that first scene that Ellen chats about whether their astrology signs are compatible. This is nonsense to an astronomer. Was this an error in the script? Or did the producers think no one in the audience would know or care? Or did the producers not know or care? Bradbury should have.
  • Many of the scenes are filmed day-for-night, i.e. filmed during the daytime and then manipulated in the studio to look darker. But it’s not always obvious, so the chronology of events is sometimes confusing.
  • It’s notable that this astronomer carries a pistol around with him.
  • I was about to note that, unusually for this era, no one smoked, until about half way through the sheriff lights up.
  • The theme of aliens replacing ordinary people with duplicates was not uncommon in this communist scare era, and appeared both in Invaders from Mars (up next) and the more famous Invasion of the Body Snatchers.

 

Posted in Skiffy Flix | Comments Off on Skiffy Flix: It Came from Outer Space

What It Means to Think That God Is On Your Side

  • Concerning Hegseth, Trump, and Rubio;
  • Also, how do religious sects decide when to reinterpret their scripture?
  • Items about 100% approval, teleportation, church/state separation, and uncounted COVID deaths;
  • FBers compare reactions to Charlie Kirk’s death to Trump’s reaction to Robert Mueller’s death;
  • And David Brin notes a similar comparison between Cesar Chavez and the people the right defends.
– – –

Everyone thinks God is on their side. Don’t they realize this?

NY Times, 20 Mar 2026: Hegseth Invokes Divine Purpose to Justify Military Might, subtitled “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has imbued U.S. military actions with a Christian moral underpinning that suggests they are divinely sanctioned.”

He spoke of “overwhelming force” and the U.S. military’s unmatched ability to rain “death and destruction from above” on its “apocalyptic” Iranian foes.

Then, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, standing in the Pentagon, issued a call to the American people for a specific kind of wartime prayer. He asked them to pray for victory in battle and the safety of their troops.

“Every day, on bended knee, with your family, in your schools, in your churches,” he said, “in the name of Jesus Christ.”

At a time when the U.S. and Israeli militaries are dropping thousands of bombs on a majority-Shiite Muslim nation, the explicitly Christian nature of Mr. Hegseth’s call stood out.

And so on. Later:

“I was saved by God to make America great again,” Mr. Trump said at his 2025 inauguration, referencing a sense of divine mission after surviving an assassination attempt. And last month in Munich, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said America and Europe were bonded together as civilizations by “Christian faith.”

I’m not sure which is worse: that Hegseth and Rubio and Trump really believe these things, or that they just say so to appeal to their base. It simply can’t true that God is on everyone’s side. To think so is to fail reality-literacy 101. And to think that God is on your side, and the other side is evil, is simple arrogance…. Not just personal arrogance, now that I think about it. There’s a civilizational arrogance too, and racism, reflecting the notion that America thinks its culture is superior to all others, that those brown-skinned people in the Middle East or Asia or Africa can’t be quite as smart as MAGA whites and so their beliefs aren’t quite as legitimate, and so can be discounted. We’ve heard Rubio lately about the superiority of “Western Culture,” ignoring the aspects of that culture that overcame religion (the Enlightenment, the scientific revolution) and built our modern technological society. Despite religion.

\\\

Similarly, how does this work exactly? It’s not about evidence. (Science is about evidence, which is why its conclusions do change from time to time.) The Catholic Church has famously done this many times. And the Mormons…

Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, today: Jehovah’s Witnesses issue “clarification” on blood transfusion ban after decades of suffering, subtitled “A long-standing life-or-death doctrine has been softened… without apology or accountability”

Of course their first mistake was in picking and choosing which passages of the Bible to apply to the modern world, and how. Mehta quotes Associated Press:

Jehovah’s Witnesses’ historic teachings on blood transfusions stem from biblical passages requiring believers to “abstain … from blood,” which they interpret as applying not just to food but to transfusions. While they teach that many detailed dietary laws in the Old Testament portion of the Bible no longer apply, they say this prohibition on partaking of blood is upheld as a universal principle for believers in other Bible passages.

While other religions interpret differently, of course. If only there were a way to draw conclusions about the world from the objective evidence of that world!

\\\

Briefly, from JMG.

\\

And an example of what everyone is saying today, from FB:

There wasn’t a single Democratic elected official who celebrated Charlie Kirk’s death. Not one. Donald Trump is openly celebrating Robert Mueller’s death and no Republicans are condemning him. Both sides are not the same.

Similarly, this comment from David Brin today on FB.

The differences are as stark as they were at Gettysburg, between flawed-good and absolute evil. Dig it: when Americans* learn that one of their icons or leaders had been a criminal pervert, we purge or disown him, as now with Chavez. When confederate/Kremlinist/Foxites learn about perv leaders they double down! They protect the rat. The many, innumerable rats, going back from Epstein’s pal all the way to Dennis Hastert …

This may be a valid distinction, but I think it’s easy to overreact in the case of someone like Chavez. This is how people accuse liberals of ‘cancelling’ people who come into sudden disfavor. Weren’t their accomplishments just as substantial? How far do you go? It’s easy to find famous people in history who, it turns out, weren’t very nice in one way or another, but does that mean their work is discredited? The actual distinction is that conservatives double-down, defending their leaders and denying that the sins matter, while liberals dismiss the person from public recognition and all too often dismiss their accomplishments too. (See, recently in the SF world, Neil Gaiman, whose TV series and book deals were cancelled after he was accused of sexual impropriety.)

Brin’s asterisk:

*And yes, by now it’s clear. Blue = American and red/gray = Confederate. What? Can I prove that? While that’s not explicitly wager-able, one word makes it clear. Look a MAGA in the eye and say “Appomattox is coming.” He will flinch and flush, knowing exactly what you mean.

Posted in Lunacy, Politics, Psychology, Religion | Comments Off on What It Means to Think That God Is On Your Side

Ziya Tong; THE REALITY BUBBLE

Subtitled: Blind Spots, Hidden Truths, and the Dangerous Illusions that Shape Our World
(Penguin Canada: Allen Lane, 2019, 366pp, including 15pp of acknowledgements and index.)

This is a pleasant enough book by a Canadian journalist. Her broad point is that there are many things about the world that most of us are unaware of, living as we do in a “reality bubble.” One way this is true is that many things are the way they are by convention, not because we live by some unalterable rules. Example: time zones. (This aligns with a key theme of science fiction: things might well be different in ways that wouldn’t occur to most people.) Another way this is true is that some things that we’re unaware of are just about the complexity of life. No one can, or necessarily needs to, understand all the details of where our food comes from. And a third way is more fundamental, that reality really does constrain what we perceive and what we don’t. Example of the electromagnetic spectrum and how humans perceive only a small fraction of it. There are lots of examples along all three of these themes… But they strike me as separate themes, analogous only in the broadest sense. So this is sort of a three-books-in-one. This is understandable, perhaps, in that the author is a journalist, for TV and radio, and presumably has been open to topics of all sorts that would be suitable science-oriented programming. (Also, very broadly, it aligns with similar works by Gladwell, Freakonomics, etc etc. But not in a hard science way.)

Key Points

  • Common sense is blinding us from scientific truth. [[ Well yes, this is key: it’s not so much scientific truth, as anything outside …
  • The book is divided into three biological blind spots, three societal blind spots, and five civilizational blind spots, 10 in all
  • Intro: Common sense is blinding us from scientific truth. [[ Well yes, this is key: it’s not so much scientific truth, as anything outside … The book is divided into three biological blind spots, three societal blind spots, and five civilizational blind spots (and a conclusion):
  1. Reality is not human-sized [[ This goes to the problem of scale, and how human ‘common sense’ utterly fails outside very limited ranges. ]] She calls this ‘scale blindness‘, a good term
  2. We can’t see how connected we are to the universe around us. There’s no place where our body ends and the world begins. Our senses are limited, e.g. how we now understand solid objects are mostly porous.
  3. We believe we’re superior to all other creatures, unaware of how differently they perceive the world and how limited our own perceptions are.
  4. We’re unaware of the dirty truths of our food production system, from the gruesome way chickens are processed, to the impact on other species of our harvesting methods. We combine a certain reverence for nature (what Wilson called biophilia) with cognitive dissonance to avoid the unpleasant facts…
  5. We’re unaware of where our energy comes from, and the vulnerabilities of our infrastructure. We don’t realize how much energy we use, or the effects of the carbon dioxide we pump into the air.
  6. We’re unaware where all our trash goes, what happens to it. Biological waste, food waste, e-waste, plastic…
  7. Our time zones are conventions, but we have a natural sense of time, which we confuse with our measurement of time, which began with industrialization. Before that time didn’t need to be measured. Now we are obsessed it, and it drives our markets and daily life.
  8. We’ve created basic units of measure based on practical and subjective human experience. Many were standardized, but only the metric system, set up by the French, appeals to something objective, i.e. the size of the earth. Similar ideas of carving up space, defining nations. There were no passports until 1914, no nation-states before the 18th century. Now there are elaborate rules about property rights.
  9. Now robots take the roles of humans, all around us, from CCTV cameras in Britain to facial recognition devices everywhere, especially in China. Our social media and searches are tracked. Everyone is assumed guilty and just hasn’t been caught yet (turning culture paranoid and conservative). Some nations have social credit scores. We don’t notice that we’re surrounded by eyes.
  10. Our economy is largely electronic but we cling to the ownership of things. We’re hung up on animistic ideas that things have souls. We’re stuck on a hedonic treadmill. Perhaps ownership is a trait that’s become maladaptive.
  11. Author foresees an ‘apocalypse,’ an uncovering of knowledge, by escaping our reality bubble and recognizing our blind spots. We believe in a world that is largely imaginary, and may be disappearing. We need shifts of perception, like the overview effect experienced by astronauts. The old mythos of Joseph Campbell needs replacing. Because we’re on the eve of a planetary apocalypse.

Detailed notes

Note Buckminster Fuller quote before the table of contents.

Intro, p1

About Ann Hodges, in 1954, who was hit by a meteorite in her home. She became a sensation. Her cosmic perspective was changed. The heavens are hell. It doesn’t feel that way, because we live in a bubble, of the atmosphere that blocks many dangers. We also live in a psychological one, our ‘reality bubble.’ It shields unwelcome facts and unfamiliar ideas. Which means we’ve got a warped perception of reality. And all bubbles eventually burst.

Each of us has two blinds spots, in our eyes. Sample diagram, 3b. We can be blind to the obvious. Kids don’t know where food comes from. Or adults, what oil is. Or where our waste goes. Humans are smart. But life is disappearing; the sixth extinction. And yet we’re obsessed with zombies. We conform. Is there another way? Perhaps if we could perceive the real world…

Recalling 1988 movie They Live. Glasses that reveal things as they actually are. We can do the same with scientific lenses. Author has spent a decade interviewing scientists and thinkers. Humanity is on a collision course, because our ‘common sense’ is blinding us from scientific truth. This book will examine ten big blind spots. Individual, collective, and intergenerational. As Sagan said, we need to understand how the world works.

Part One: Biological Blind Spots: What Surrounds Us

1, The Open Jar, p13

About the disappearance of a flea, in 1913. In a flea circus. How to train a flea? Keep it in a glass jar all the time. The story of how they were trained wasn’t true. They were manipulated. It was torture. People treat fleas as tiny, insignificant. Robert Hooke discovered many things, but is best known for his illustration of a flea. His 1665 book Micrographia. Then van Leeuwenhoek used even more powerful microscopes. What he saw he called animalcules. Microorganisms were unknown before the 1600s. He looked at his own blood. And sperm. Plaque. Bacteria. Hooke replicated them.

Humans are relatively massive as living things go. Are fleas unworthy of being alive? Or other such pests? Thus we have chemicals to kill them. Which could lead to bad consequences. The food chain depends on insects. Most of those fleas are extinct. But other tiny mites live on our faces. Our bodies are covered in microbes. In our air. Most are harmless. Some are good, like probiotics. They help us digest. They produce oxygen. In the soil. Most of them are still unknown. Others are high in the atmosphere. So: our first blind spot is that reality is not human-sized. Examples of the range of sizes of other life. Large sizes are constrained by mass. Dinosaurs had air pockets in their bones. Whales live in water. Ancient animals were bigger when there was more oxygen in the air. Then birds arose to take out the large insects. Recently animals are getting smaller. Domestic species are getting larger. Example of chickens, p34. And so we eat more, and are getting fatter. And taller.

Galileo was the first to glimpse the colossal scale of reality. Glassmakers of the time made spectacles, and revealed the macro and micro worlds with microscopes and telescopes. Galileo improved their designs. Our own eyes are incredibly sensitive. Example of Mizar and Alcor. Galileo looked at the moon and saw ridges and craters. And Venus, orbiting the sun. The Church objected. Modern telescopes detect fields of stars in every apparently empty patch of sky.

Humans are bad at scale. We suffer scale blindness. (! maybe this is the term I was looking for.) We’re numb to big numbers. Examples. Sagan quote, 43m. Galileo realized that what humans perceive is just a slice of reality. It bothered him that others refused to open their eyes. …Galileo’s fingers were stolen, and one eventually recovered.

2, Mind Bomb.

Quote by Zamyatin.

Story about two women found dead in Vienna in 1992. Then recall Samuel Johnson and James Boswell arguing about George Berkeley’s notion that we only know the world through our sensory perceptions, not as it really is. [[ Just as in Hoffman bk just read ]] Boswell kicked a rock to refute the idea. Yet he was wrong, as now scientists are concluding. We now understand that there is no place where our body ends and the world begins.

Example of lab in Japan with a camera capturing neutrinos. Matter is not solid in the way we think. Neutrinos are so small that don’t have positions per se. Then, a mummy unwrapped in London. In 1895 X-rays were discovered. Then mummies could be examined non-invasively. X-rays became both useful and popular. And yet they had side effects. They caused damage. Not all radiation is the same. We ‘see’ some things with radiation, and remain blind to other things.

A 1957 paper by Hoyle et al established that matter is derived from elements created by the stars. Successive explosions. Hydrogen becomes helium until it runs out; helium fuses to become carbon, etc. until iron. Then it explodes as a supernova. Quotes Caleb Scharf ZOOMABLE. Most of the atoms in our bodies are as old as the Big Bang itself. Water is older than the sun. p59. Similar carbon. The body constantly renews itself. Scientists study this constant resurrection. Examples. Today, we have the power to create new elements. Fuse atoms, and to split them. Nuclear bombs.

Back to the two mummified sisters. They needed to know which sister died first. Carbon 14 spiked during nuclear bomb testing. Some cells turn over very quickly; skin, every two to three weeks. … then found that one sister had died nearly a year before the other.

Infants understand solid objects, even though we know solids are most porous. Eastern religions; everything is connected. Flowers and clouds. We live in networks. … So, our second blind spot is that we cannot see how connected we are the universe around us.

Ch3, I to Eye, p69

A primatologist in a Tanzanian national park to watch a sunset… joined by two chimpanzees. Unsurprising, or anthropomorphism? How we view other species. We don’t know; their experience is completely unknown to us. One Italian city passed a law about goldfish. Some fish can recognize human faces. Pigeons too. Who can find their way home. Consider how other species experience the world. [[ which is what Yong’s 2022 book is all about ]]

We perceive only a tiny fraction of the electromagnetic spectrum. Everything else is invisible – to us. But not to some other animals. Examples. Eagles. Fields of vision. Dung beetles map the sky, by the moon. Or the milky way. Dragonflies have the best eyesight. They can see more colors. And slow-motion. Like a colorblind person putting on EnChroma glasses to see color for the first time. And tetrachromacy in some people. Another condition, aphakia, sees ultraviolet. Monet; WWII agents. Oil spills. Other animals ‘see’ sound. Bats, whales. Dolphins and biosonar. Clicks and echoes. Animals use sight to learn from their parents. Bees and soccer. A chimp with eidetic photographic memory. Other examples. The gorilla Koko and sign language. Careful standards. Horses and blankets. A bonobo in Iowa.

Can humans understand animals’ languages? Con Slobodchikoff and prairie dogs. Different barks for different sizes, colors…

Ideas about animal awareness were once considered quackery. Frans de Waal sees such ideas in evolutionary terms. Thomas Nagel and the bat. Our minds are alien to other forms of life. but we can understand that they do feel and think. A 2012 declaration… p95. So we’ve revealed three big blind spots. We believe we’re at the center of the universe, separate from the world around us, and superior to all other creatures. But via science these assumptions can be overturned, 95b. But we do not see how our species survives…

Part Two: Societal Blind Spots: What Sustains Us

Ch4, Recipe for Disaster, p99

About the autopsy of a chicken nugget. As a way to study obesity. There wasn’t much chicken in the nugget. Frankenmeat. Since the 1970s. Zombie meat. ‘Fresh’ is relative. Preservation methods. Synthetic colors of salmon. Of egg yolks. Back to the 1950s. antibiotics. Cleaning with chlorine. Our eyes deceive us about what we eat.

The five-second rule is not valid. We’d rather not know the dirty truth about our food system. Revelations go back to Upton Sinclair’s The Jungle. Disgust is universal. But much that is disgusting is hidden. The garbage fed animals that we eat. We have a reverence for nature that Wilson called biophilia. We sense an affinity with animals. But employ cognitive dissonance to avoid unpleasant facts.

Consider the food chain. It all comes from dirt. You can test soil by burying underwear for a couple months. We are degrading our soil. Most of our food is made up of twelve plant species and five animal species. That makes our crops vulnerable, as in the Irish potato famine. Bananas. Biodiversity also suffers from the plants we grow for our own food. Feed for animals used for meat. Those animals don’t have natural sex. Artificial insemination. Various methods. Bull sperm is very valuable. Details… big industry. And about pigs. And piglets. Both human and livestock populations are increasing… p118.

So where does the water in our bodies come from? Clouds. Aquifers. Snow and ice melt from glaciers. These are disappearing too. …  And fish are endangered, not by water, but by us. Planes are used to spot schools of fish. Populations plummet. Some fish are farmed. Trash fish are harvested for fishmeal. In the 1960s machines were built to strip meat from chicken carcasses. This produces a gruesome blind spot. How chickens are processed. Other animals are similarly processed in factories. Back to Chicago. Even vegetarians consume products made from meat by-products. Gelatin, made from skin and bones etc, becomes a binding agent and photographic film. Such rendering is the “invisible industry.” And more products: 128b. And pet food. and some producers use meat from euthanized shelter animals. Barbaric methods remain in the animal industry to this day. Future generations may regard us a hypocrites.

[[ Ok but this strikes me as a completely different topic that the earlier chapters… life is complex and no one can be aware of every detail.  ]]

Ch5, Black Gold, p131

How breaks in TV broadcasts create sudden spikes in demand. Case of the Great British Bake Off, and pandas. The spike didn’t happen. Different kinds of power come from different sources. We don’t notice it, until it’s gone. Fukushima, 2011. Ordinary threats to power include squirrels and trees. The grid is growing older. And today we have new sources of energy, such as wind and solar, and even cheese.

A byproduct of Beaufort cheese in Savoie is used to generate power for 1500 people. 137. Electricity is made by turning turbines. Electrons actually move slowly. The power moves, just like sound moves, not air molecules. Ref Adam Frank, 139.4. Battery storage for electricity goes back to Volta. How batteries work. Lithium.

Einstein and the photoelectric effect. Solar power. Wind. Neither is consistent. Iceland, geothermal. Waterfalls. Niagara, and Tesla’s AC power. Dams. Fish cannons. Nuclear power. Problems: meltdowns. Fukushima. Fortunately such problems are rare. Gasoline and its byproducts. Barrels of oil. The military uses the most. Why is there so much oil in the middle east? Look to prehistory. Oil is dead stuff, much from an extinction event. Coal from ancient forests, mostly before dinosaurs lived.

Humans have artificial superpowers. We can do everything that Superman did. But the sources of our power is another blind spot. We don’t realize how much we use. We’re pumping carbon dioxide into the air. That’s invisible to us too.

Ch6, Trash & Treasure, p162

There’s lots of trash on the moon from the six moon landings. And other missions. Eventually the trash will break down. And there’s space junk orbiting the earth. Other spacecraft are dumped into the sea, especially one particular spot in the Pacific. Humans throw away a lot of trash. A lot more right here on earth. A lot of which comes from manufacturing. And we create biological waste. People used to throw it into the streets. And pigs ran wild in the streets. Paris too. The Chinese shipped it to farms. How much one person produces. Good and bad. But guano was even better. Island near Peru. Lots of nitrogen. Discovered in 1804. Eventually it ran out. Nitrates from deserts last for a while. Chemists came to the rescue. The Haber-Bosch process. Nitrogen mined from the air. It required a huge machine. Now factories all over the world. It enabled the growth in world population…  Half of the nitrogen in your DNA comes from such a factory.

Food waste also grows. More than e-waste. Extending to other kinds of waste, like chemical fertilizers. Washed into the ocean by rain. Algae blooms. Dead zones. An escalating cycle. The HB process itself uses 2% of the world’s energy, and thus contributes to air pollution. In 2014 China launched a mission to change the color of the sky, at least for two weeks, to “APEC blue.” They just stopped polluting for two weeks. AQI (air quality index) is a familiar term. 300 is bad. Beijing got up to 905 once. The rich have air domes. Similarly in India, Saudi Arabia, Iran. Lung cancer. Millions of tons of various pollutants, 181b. Hundreds of new cities in China. Manufacturing. Especially visible as plastic waste. Plastic didn’t exist a century ago. Bakelite. Later many others. We throw most of it away. By the 1950s people threw more stuff away than kept antiques. Single-use plastics. Planned obsolescence and trends. Why isn’t plastic biodegradable? It’s chemically inert. Plastic is in all sorts of animals. … the US sends its trash back to China. Examples. Causes birth defects. Until 2018.

We use garbage as fuel for buses and garbage trucks. Sweden. Sewage can be mined for trace minerals. Even gold. Urine is sterile and could be used as fertilizer. Quote by Whitehead 192.3: “civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them.” [[ Yes isn’t this exactly the point?? Calling these ‘blind spots’ seems to miss this point – we should want everything to be ‘automated’ as much as possible; the problem isn’t that we’re unaware of them, it’s that we’re unaware of the negative consequences. ]]

Part Three: Civilizational Blind Spots: What Controls Us

Ch7, Time Lords, p197

How a plane left New Zealand on Jan 1 and landed in Hawaii on Dec 31. Some countries along the IDL change which side they want to be on. The prime meridian runs through Greenwich, for reasons. Longitude; Dava Sobel. They needed accurate clocks. Done by one John Harrison. Allowing Britain to conquer the world. How some plants have predictable daily cycles. Birdsongs. Incense. Some other animals. Honeybees. Worms. Do humans have a natural circadian rhythm? Example of a man kept in a cave for six months. He almost lost his mind; he experienced fewer days than he actually lived. Some cultures mark very long periods of time. Sundials, water clocks. Hourglasses. Watches set their own time, thus “o’ clock.” Without clocks, time is flexible, as on islands. Some people opposed setting local time to a standardized time. Now we have a blind spot: we confuse our measurement of time with time itself.

The Japanese have a term for “overwork death.” Also applies to hospital interns. A Roman playwright wrote about it. Hunter-gatherers worked very little. Industrialization was brought about by the measurement of work. Overtime. Punctuality. The idea of ‘wasting’ time. In 1875 America had 75 different local times, most centered on high noon. The railways led the synchronization of time. Signals sent from an observatory. Factory clocks. Time control. Punch clocks. Alarm clocks. Salaries based on time. Garments took hundreds of hours to make in the Middle Ages. Management systems. How long tasks took. Rules in Chinese Apple factories. Denial of bathroom breaks. Time is especially valuable in financial markets, where machine transactions take split seconds. Public figures never seem to have enough time. Before Einstein scientists thought time was absolute. Einstein showed otherwise. GPS relies on it. What is time, according to physicists? Imaginary time. Hawking. Brian Greene. The rat race. Retirement ages seem to get farther out. Leisure costs money. Chores have become hobbies. We have to keep up with fashion. All that manufacturing can change the climate. A hot NYC day in February. Changes in weather patterns. Plants and animals. Flowers and bees. Ecosystems out of whack. And one more clock: the Doomsday Clock.

Ch8, Space Invaders, p233

About England’s “right to roam” law. And Scottish “bothies” 235t. Humans have a sense of territory, space bubbles from intimate space to personal space to social space to public space. Other animals too. The Finns measure how far a reindeer can travels before it needs to pee.

Consider how we came to create our basic units of measure. We chop things into manageable pieces, human-sized. The cubit was from the elbow to the outstretched hand. Similar in various cultures. Of course all people are not the same. Measures were eventually standardized. 1196; Magna Carta in 1215. But some monarchs changed them. Eventually the French set up the metric system. Based on the planet, not human bodies. They began by measuring the earth. The meter was 1/10,000 the distance from pole to equator. 1799. Still, its definition depended on a physical object. Now we define the meter by wavelengths of a particular color of light. Or light in a vacuum. We come to impose our measurements upon the actual world.

Synthetic training environments, STEs. Bruce Sterling anticipated them in 1993. They can extend to the entire planet. Explorers have always come with mapmakers. Now there rules for continental economic zones, and continental shelves. Disputes between claims; Canada and Russia.

About the Apollo 11 astronauts. They had to return through customs. Passports. Only since 1914. The infrastructure wasn’t there before that. There were no nation-states before the 18th century. The border between Belgium and the Netherlands is a hodgepodge. Details. Consider how Africa was carved up. Examples. There are 6500 languages spoken on Earth, and 195 countries. … when humans could no longer expand outwards, the expanded upwards—thus hierarchies. Vs the nomads. Conflicts between farmers and nomads. Recall the Thirty Years’ War, Treaty of Westphalia 1648, the idea of sovereignty. Property rights. Different divisions of ‘space’ have various rights associated with them. Including above and below your property. Air rights for airmail services. Air force and chickens. Now drones. Rules keep shifting. Satellites. (“lose its grip” 258.0 – no; also ‘crashing to earth’ in footnote. Both of these misunderstandings of physics.) Star names.

Bit of property in NYC. The idea of ‘real estate’ is a modern one. Commons, privatization, etc. Wool. Clearances. Urbanization. Eminent domain. Now we have zombie flats and ghost mansions. Mostly unoccupied, owned by foreigners. The super-rich. In many cities. Especially China. While poor people live in tiny quarters.

Ch9, Human Robots, p267

Note Mencken quote. About tracking cyclists on long rides. In 2017, one such cyclist was hit by a car and killed. GPS. The signals are very faint. Now accurate to within a couple meters. There are ‘graveyard’ orbits for dead satellites. Spy satellites can resolve 25 cm. how the economy depends on thousands of satellites.

CCTV cameras in Britain. Keeping people in line. Also many in China. AI and facial recognition. Everyone tracked in one Chinese city. Indoors too, black domes. Public buses record conversations. Workplaces. All of this erodes trust. Vehicle data—assuming everyone is guilty and just hasn’t been caught yet. 278b. Brain surveillance in China. UK tapping into home webcams.

The eyes in our heads…  Social media. Monitored by law enforcement. False positives. Example of Joe Lipari. Our searches, our likes, etc. Digital footprints. Megabytes every day for every person. Data is more valuable than oil. Personal data markets. Real-time bidding for ad space. Details. Swaying elections. Tracking children.

The eyes on our bodies. How police wanted to use a dead body to unlock a phone. Every security method can be hacked. Biometrics. But why is this all happening? Perhaps it began with sorting concentration camp prisoners into groups, but IBM and the Nazis. Even that was hacked. Which saved a lot of Jews in France. Data is the base of surveillance. Borders and magical thinking; Harari.

[[ Thought: that technology is increasing the ability of suspicious people to monitor everyone else is turning the entire climate conservative and paranoid. It used to be you tended to trust people because you had no other choice… but most of the time it worked out. ]]

The eyes with their own mind. How a Mr. Ao was spotting in the crowd at a concert in China. Where they have social credit scores. Pluses and minuses. Classes of citizens. Blacklists. Traditionally it was about public image, saving face. Now, computers never forget. You don’t necessarily have to do anything, just be in the wrong category. Schools. Babies.

Is it a crime to see? So we are surrounded by eyes. We don’t notice; that’s the blind spot. There are cameras everywhere except for those three big blind spots: where food comes from, where energy comes from, where our wastes go. Example tracking vegans, as threats to the meat industry. Pipeline protests. Chemical spills. Etc. Yet there’s no evil mastermind behind all this. We do it to ourselves to keep everyone in line. Despite that this system, left unchecked, could destroy most of life on earth.

Ch10, The Empire Wears No Clothes, p303

About a 2016 bank robbery that was invisible. Money moves electronically. Bangladesh. The culprit has never been ID’d, but may be North Korean. Why is there such disparity between right and poor countries? Goes back to colonialism. How money is abstract. Tax havens. Corporations avoid paying taxes. Bank fees. Punishments for being poor. Money grows on computers. Through debt. Money is a promise.

Example of an oak tree in Athens, GA. That owns itself. Trees communicate, connect. The idea has extended to the Amazon basin. A river in New Zealand. Of course big business fights back. But a corporation is as much a fiction as they claimed a watershed was. Yet legally corporations are persons. But not chimps, or dairy cows. But if we grant rights to some, where would it end? It would contradict the idea of ‘owning’ something. Story about a woman who accidentally bought a Renoir masterpiece. A judge ruled for the museum that claimed it. William James formed the idea of our attachments to things. Marketers know this. The instant endowment effect. Other animals behave similarly. But only humans are bogged down by our ‘stuff’. Perhaps a key to the power of our species. Every culture understands ownership. Toddlers understand. Studies of how they think. Circumstances matter. Examples. Land rights. Does ‘improving’ it matter? John Locke. And other ideas.

In Japan a funeral ceremony for Sony robot dogs. Aibos. All things have souls; animism. Shinto. The idea extends to the west too, how certain objects are endowed with special qualities. At the same time we throw lots of stuff away. The stuff we keep we have sentimental attachments too. Hoarders. Columbus was surprised that the natives didn’t think of possessions at all. But capitalism depends on excess goods. And to consume. Wal-Mart sale in Porter Ranch. Now frenzied sales are online. Having things makes us happy. The hedonic treadmill. Having things *doesn’t* make us happy. Perhaps ownership is one of those traits that’s become maladaptive.

Further: even if we believe we own the world, that doesn’t mean it’s ours.

Note definition of civilization, 332.8: “the shared effort to mitigate the danger of evolved responses.” [[ Another spin on the idea of primitive vs evolved human nature, and the unreliability of native ‘common sense.’ ]]

Ch11, Revolution, p333

Author traveled to the Lamu Archipelago in 2014 to begin research for this book. A primitive culture. Baobab trees. How could anyone own one? Back in Toronto there was a ‘housing bubble.’ She reflected on what home-ownership means. Or ownership of anything.

Recalling a Solomon Asch experience, p336. Conformity altered the perception. [[ How religion works! ]] What was remarkable that some people refused to conform, some 25%. [[ Well this is a key point about both politics and religion ]] But standing up for beliefs has a cognitive cost.

Apocalypse actually means an uncovering of knowledge, a revelation. The dawning of clarity. Escaping the reality bubble. We must recognize our blind spots. Reality is socially constructed; a product of our minds. We conform to a reality that isn’t there. Harari on imagined realities like gods, nations, and corporations. We’ve come to believe we own the world; thus much other life is disappearing. Climate change. Wm Gibson 341.4 on how no one writes about the 22nd century.

What does it means to ‘fight the system’? The system if our life support system. The goal of the system isn’t so much survival, as ownership. Yet this system exists in our blind spots. And so we are destroying it. Yet, cf PKD, our problems won’t go away just if we stop believing in them. Pirsig: patterns of behavior repeat themselves. How to escape? Science can shatter old worldviews. [[ Let’s claim this for sf too ]] Example 343. Contrary to common sense. Science proves our physical perceptions are wrong. Recall Kuhn. Thus his idea of paradigm shifts. The world changes. examples. Yet there is a huge gap between what science sees and what lay people understand. Big ideas take time to spread.

About the shifts in perspective of those who’ve gone beyond low-earth orbit. The overview effect. [[ Can we name a sfnal analogy? Conceptual breakthrough? ]] People on the ISS witness 16 sunrises and sunsets a day. Yet not every astronaut experiences it.

Recalling Joseph Campbell. The big movies, the Greek myths. Hero’s journey. Discovering a new perspective and bringing it home. It’s time for us to change. Hawking: how our existence is unlikely. (Anthropic principle) Chances of any one of us being born. Details. Basically zero. Yet here we are, on the bring of a planetary apocalypse…

 

Posted in Book Notes, Human Progress, reality | Comments Off on Ziya Tong; THE REALITY BUBBLE

Misconceptions about Science and Predictions

  • How Jeffrey Epstein, obsessed with eugenics, was wrong;
  • How Paul Ehrlich was not a villain, even though his predictions failed;
  • John Pavlovitz wonders why anyone still supports Trump; I have another idea;
  • Tom Nichols on no Plan B; the disappearing Charlie Kirk banner;
  • Rufus Wainwright’s “Go Or Go Ahead”.
– – –

Evolution is the scientific topic about which even people who don’t reject it utterly still have more misconceptions about than any other branch of science. (Going back to Lamarckism, or the inheritance of acquired characteristics, that people like Lysenko and Stalin so much wanted to be true it became Soviet doctrine for decades.) I think it must reflect the teleological mode of most human thinking.

Slate, Susanne Paola Antonetta, 19 Mar 2026: Jeffrey Epstein, Eugenics Supremacist, subtitled “The files reveal his obsession with genetics. But genes don’t work the way he thought.”

Epstein, culpable for so much, was also a believer in eugenics, the manipulation of reproduction and of genes to create “better” humans. His focus on genes, as reflected in his correspondence, is remarkable. The files show that Epstein constantly asks if various random traits might be genetic, spends thousands on high-end DNA sequencing for himself, and has his assistants hand out 23andMe test kits the way most people hand out business cards.

Though, like many things Epstein, the man’s genetic interests were twisted, often revolting, and shockingly uninformed. He felt about genes the way grade-school kids might feel about Santa—genes are wondrous things, capable of delivering just about anything petitioners may desire. Epstein, in his musings in the files, credits genes with controlling things that range from the rear ends of people of Irish descent to honor killings, financial skill, and, weirdly, “Asian family structure.”

(Those links in the last sentence are to the Epstein Files themselves.)

Later in piece the writer explains how Epstein was wrong.

But genes don’t behave as Epstein imagined they do, like codes punched into a computer—they’re neither blueprints nor instructions, though pop culture often presents them that way. The ease with which genes pass on mechanical, protein-coded traits like eye color has misled even scientists into thinking that they pass on other traits straightforwardly as well. But qualities like family structure, math skills, and trivia come far more from life and environment than from protein structures (which are very good at giving you brown eyes). Genes can be expressed or activated, or not—more often they’re not; they mutate and can alter their own function and be altered by environmental forces. Few have any fixed function. As Philip Ball, who wrote How Life Works, puts it, looking to genes to explain who you are is like staring at the dictionary hoping to understand literature. And imagining you can simply add genes to people and create a specific type of person is like shaking up a box of all the letters used in Hamlet and expecting to create another play just as good. For that matter, Shakespeare had three brothers, who shared much of his DNA. One worked in haberdashery, one acted, and one’s path was uncertain—but none wrote.

(Because, I would add, our genes were not *designed.* They’re the result of millions, even billions of years of kludges. Whichever sequences of things worked out, even if entirely by accident, survived, no matter how clumsy they would have seen to any kind of ‘designer.’)

The writer concludes,

It’s not possible to tie even math skills firmly to genes, much less anyone’s family structure. Epstein fell into a historical trap, one in which “making things better for humanity” quickly slides into “better for me.” And terrible for those around you.

It’s a trap baited ultimately with contempt for other humans. I hope the Epstein case draws attention to this dark genetic path. We have seen what’s down that path, and the new genetic supremacists don’t promise any better.

\\\

I will mention, but not delve deeply into, the recent death of Paul Ehrlich, who became infamous, even notorious for his 1968 book THE POPULATION BOMB and his  predictions of mass starvation due to overpopulation.

The Atlantic, Jacob Anbinder, 19 Mar 2026: What Paul Ehrlich’s Fear of Scarcity Did to American Politics, subtitled “Ehrlich’s lurid predictions of imminent planetary doom captivated the public, but they did not come true.”

When the Stanford biologist and science writer Paul Ehrlich died last week at 93, the obituaries that followed were a fascinating exercise in editorial balance. As usual, most hesitated to speak too critically of the recently deceased. But they needed to point out why Ehrlich was famous in the first place: the many bold claims in The Population Bomb, his 1968 best-selling book about the impending crisis of overpopulation. Ehrlich’s lurid predictions of imminent planetary doom captivated the public, but they did not come true. Today the world’s population is leveling off. If anything, Americans might be having too few kids rather than too many. Yet even though overpopulation is an issue as dated as Dacron pants or disco, Ehrlich helped give an imprimatur of scholarly authority to a new kind of politics—a politics of scarcity—that has proved enduring in American life.

In The Population Bomb and subsequent writings, Ehrlich popularized a fundamental concept of environmental science: Natural systems have natural limits that could reveal themselves in catastrophic ways as their “carrying capacities” are approached. Crucially, Ehrlich also believed that the United States and the planet itself were in grave danger of reaching those limits soon if steps were not taken to curb population growth.

My take: Ehrlich was wrong in the same way that Malthus was wrong: both failed to anticipate advances in technology (i.e. food production) and social forces which stemmed the expansion of the population — social forces also driven by science and technology, namely the improvements in health that led to families having fewer children.

What Ehrlich should be credited for, still, is bringing these topics to public attention. A large part of modern environmental consciousness was inspired by him, perhaps, and its relevance is not going away any time soon.

\

Jerry Coyne, 18 Mar 2026: Wednesday: Hili dialogue (scroll down)

He quotes NYT and LAT, and has just this comment:

Ehrlich was a good scientist (he studied butterflies) who became The Chicken Little of Biology, and perhaps in love with his fame. His predictions of overpopulations and famine were not met, but perhaps for reasons he couldn’t predict.

The LAT piece is by the notorious conservative Jonah Goldberg. It can also be said that the reason Ehrlich was always controversial, and why conservatives like Goldberg now take glee in claiming he was wrong about everything, is that his warnings implicated big business and its obsession with making money over every other concern. An obsession, and a denial of existential risks, which continues to this day.

\\\

Another cri de coeur …

John Pavlovitz, today: MAGAs Are Destroying America For Spite

How can anyone still support him?

Tens of millions of us still find ourselves asking this question, watching a staggering number of Americans somehow remain unflinching in their devotion to this President. Despite high crimes, sexual assaults, cognitive decline, reckless wars, and an authoritarian agenda, they remain seemingly giddy over his existence.

But Trump’s supporters aren’t necessarily pleased with the actual policies, tactics, or methods, but with the results: pissing off the people they don’t like.

Really? Some of them, I’m sure.

That is all that matters to them.
It’s the reason they vote the way they do.
It’s the reason their support is steadfast through pedophilia accusations and acts of treason and human rights disasters and wanton ignorance.
It’s the reason they remain emotionally infatuated with him despite his breaking every campaign promise.

Trump supporters have always seen his ascendancy as a big “F— You” to his predecessor, to the identity politics that they feel has targeted them, and to an ever-diversifying nation that they see as a threat. More than affordable healthcare, unpolluted food, and economic opportunity, they want someone to stick it to the world on their behalf, and in their rage-addled state, they somehow believe he does that.

It’s a nationwide mental health crisis that seems both beyond repair and belief.

This is part of it, but I think there’s more, and I admit I’m basing my suspicion somewhat on the videos Facebook shows me of interviews with people in MAGA hats screaming about how crazy the Democrats are. Many of the MAGA folk believe that, based on the same selective and biased reporting that drives the news, even the relatively responsible news. This is another factor in how so many people think the world is worse now than it ever was. They think Democrats are obsessed with transgenders and trans athletes — even though in the whole nation there are only something like 10 such athletes. Republicans are obsessed with voter fraud, even though in the whole nation there have been only 70 or 80 instances of improper voting out of 10s and 10s of millions of votes cast. And the earlier classic examples: they’re terrified that Democrats are going to “take away their guns” even though that’s never been proposed (only restrictions on future sales of assault rifles). They’re worried about socialism and communism, even though none of them seem to have any idea of what those terms mean. And so on.

\\\

Briefly noted.

The Atlantic, Tom Nichols: Trump Had No Plan B for Iran, subtitled “And it shows.”

So it goes. It’s not getting any better.

\

Boing Boing, Jason Weisberger, 19 Mar 2026: Dept. of Education quietly yanks Charlie Kirk banner after people notice it exists

Unanswered question: what was it doing there in the first place?

For a brief and disgusting moment, the U.S. Department of Education decided that noted bigot, misogynist, and poor debater Charlie Kirk belonged on a banner alongside Martin Luther King Jr. and Booker T. Washington as part of a 250th anniversary display celebrating “heroes in American education.”

Then, just as quietly, the banner disappeared.

\\\

Working my way through my CD collection, I’ve come to the great Rufus Wainwright, and this song. From his album WANT ONE, here in a live version.

 

Posted in Evolution, Lunacy, Music, Politics, Science | Comments Off on Misconceptions about Science and Predictions