Notes for the Book: Magical Thinking, Cognitive Dissonance, Group-Thinking

Extending thoughts from previous posts about the future of enlightenment and similar matters.

About group-thinking and how people get along in their lives just fine without understanding how the world actually works (as well-established by physics, chemistry, biology including evolution, and so on). They think they believe how the world actually works, but most of them are living fantasies.

How is that? The fantasies are the various supernatural beliefs of religious faiths — so many of them, so inconsistent with each other! To the extent that anyone really believes things like how prayer can actually change the world, that a guardian angel huddles over your shoulder protecting you, that the wine really turns to the blood of Jesus in your mouth, or for that matter that sacrificing children on an altar really propitiates the rain god… they are engaging in magical thinking, a kind of pretend make-believe about how the world works.

This in turn leaves one with an imperfect grasp of reality and reason, and in turn, a susceptibility to even the most implausible claims of conspiracy theories.

Group cohesion is a driving force of humanity; it trumps reason, rationality, perception of reality.

Why have some people (e.g. scientists) escaped such corrosive effects of group-think, including religious faith? Perhaps they did not grow up, or mature into adulthood, in same-thinking environments (especially in small towns), or settled in circumstances where changing one’s mind to accommodate new evidence did not result in ostracization from the community. (It’s not an issue of being smarter or dumber; it’s about one’s social community.)

Thus the proverbial wise man, or guru, is imagined as living in isolation at the top of a mountain…

And so, just as I suggested that the answers to the big questions that have been discovered and verified by science will never filter down to more than a tiny fraction of humanity, so will the vast majority of the population, living some kind of make believe or another (even if generally harmless enough to not undermine their livelihoods and reproductive success), will forever remain innocent of how the world actually works. They get along with their lives without such awareness, thank you very much.

And yet — as suggested by one of the items in the previous post — there’s a mental cost about believing one set of ideas in some circumstances, and another set in other circumstances. It’s called cognitive dissonance. It’s how you believe your religious claims on Sunday, and deal with the actual world the rest of the week. It’s why you pray in groups at church, or privately about various specific desires (and count the hits and ignore the misses), but don’t step into traffic counting on your prayer to stop you from being run down by a truck.

How is this resolved?

By attending church services and political rallies that drown out those noises in the back of your head trying to resolve those inconsistent beliefs.

That’s why, in the pandemic, so many faithful are so furious they are not allowed to attend church services. They need the reinforcement of the crowd to drown out their individual doubts. (Scientists, for example, don’t need to meet in large crowds and endlessly recite the Pythagorean theorem or that E equals MC squared.)

Attendant with this tentative conclusion is the parallel suspicion that, for the sake of group cohesion, many people realize, privately, that the supernatural fantasies of their faith are polite fictions. Even if they would never admit to as much outloud, or even in the security of their own thoughts. There’s evidence that there are more such people — even among clergy! — than even they themselves would admit.

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Another online article this past week, by a neuroscientist, discusses this issue in more technical detail. He’s concerned specifically about religious fundamentalists, as opposed I guess to moderates, a distinction I’m not making in my thoughts above.

A neuroscientist explains how religious fundamentalism hijacks the brain

In moderation, religious and spiritual practices can be great for a person’s life and mental well-being. But religious fundamentalism—which refers to the belief in the absolute authority of a religious text or leaders—is almost never good for an individual. This is primarily because fundamentalism discourages any logical reasoning or scientific evidence that challenges its scripture, making it inherently maladaptive.

He discusses how religious ideologies spread and mutate, in analogy with biological evolution, using Richard Dawkins’ concept of memes.

In much the same way, Christian fundamentalism is a parasitic ideology that inserts itself into brains, commanding individuals to act and think in a certain way—a rigid way that is intolerant to competing ideas. We know that religious fundamentalism is strongly correlated with what psychologists and neuroscientists call “magical thinking,” which refers to making connections between actions and events when no such connections exist in reality. Without magical thinking, the religion can’t survive, nor can it replicate itself. Another cognitive impairment we see in those with extreme religious views is a greater reliance on intuitive rather than reflective or analytic thought, which frequently leads to incorrect assumptions since intuition is often deceiving or overly simplistic.

We also know that in the United States, Christian fundamentalism is linked to science denial. Since science is nothing more than a method of determining truth using empirical measurement and hypothesis testing, denial of science equates to the denial of objective truth and tangible evidence. In other words, the denial of reality. Not only does fundamentalism promote delusional thinking, it also discourages followers from exposing themselves to any different ideas, which acts to protect the delusions that are essential to the ideology.

Posted in Evolution, Psychology, Religion, The Book | Comments Off on Notes for the Book: Magical Thinking, Cognitive Dissonance, Group-Thinking

Links and Comments: America’s Reputation; Facebook; Cognitive Dissonance

NY Times, 25 Sept.: I Feel Sorry for Americans’: A Baffled World Watches the U.S.. Subtitle: “From Myanmar to Canada, people are asking: How did a superpower allow itself to be felled by a virus? And why won’t the president commit to a peaceful transition of power?”

A Pew Research Center poll of 13 countries found that over the past year, nations including Canada, Japan, Australia and Germany have been viewing the United States in its most negative light in years. In every country surveyed, the vast majority of respondents thought the United States was doing a bad job with the pandemic.

Such global disapproval historically has applied to countries with less open political systems and strongmen in charge. But people from just the kind of developing countries that Mr. Trump has mocked say the signs coming from the United States are ominous: a disease unchecked, mass protests over racial and social inequality, and a president who seems unwilling to pledge support for the tenets of electoral democracy.

And Washington Post, editorial: Trump’s contempt for truth leaves a toxic legacy around the world

Democracies cannot function if ideological differences are compounded by the circulation of conspiracy theories and falsified data; established facts are the foundation for policymaking and legislative compromise. Mr. Trump has greatly accelerated what was already a drift by elements of the Republican Party toward rejection of science and other hard reporting. His incessant lying — from inflation of the crowds at his inauguration to the course of the coronavirus pandemic — has led many of his followers to beliefs that are provably false and, in some cases, are the product of disinformation campaigns by hostile powers.

Mr. Trump, meanwhile, has waged a relentless campaign to discredit the institutions that seek to disseminate truth and discredit false stories, especially the U.S. intelligence community and the news media. Thoroughly documented intelligence reports on Russia’s interventions in U.S. politics, including the current election campaign, are, he says, “a hoax” conjured by a “deep state.” Media revelations of corruption and malfeasance in his administration are “fake news.”

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NYT, 18 Sept., Jamelle Bouie: Facebook Has Been a Disaster for the World. Subtitle: “How much longer are we going to allow its platform to foment hatred and undermine democracy?”

Facebook has been incredibly lucrative for its founder, Mark Zuckerberg, who ranks among the wealthiest men in the world. But it’s been a disaster for the world itself, a powerful vector for paranoia, propaganda and conspiracy-theorizing as well as authoritarian crackdowns and vicious attacks on the free press. Wherever it goes, chaos and destabilization follow.

And today in NYT, Thomas Friedman: Trump Sent a Warning. Let’s Take It Seriously.

The column is mostly about the danger Trump threatens to America’s democracy, but includes this passage:

I worry because Facebook and Twitter have become giant engines for destroying the two pillars of our democracy — truth and trust. Yes, these social networks have given voice to the voiceless. That is a good thing and it can really enhance transparency. But they have also become huge, unedited cesspools of conspiracy theories that are circulated and believed by a shocking — and growing — number of people.

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The Atlantic: For Some Trump Apologists, the Cognitive Dissonance Is Just Too Much. Subtitle: The need to defy reality on the president’s behalf is pushing his appointees beyond the point of reason.

Note this isn’t about Trump supporters, but his apologists, including some of his appointees, who increasingly are tasked with shaping government reports to suit Trump’s narrative, despite the facts.

…White House and Cabinet agencies will contain ideologues with no experience—or, worse, ideologues with a long record of bad judgment and terrible errors. But the cases of Crews, Caputo, and Paul Alexander suggest an additional conclusion: that people whose jobs require them to provide “alternative facts” on a regular basis might eventually break under the strain. Maybe there is a price to be paid, in loss of mental clarity, for supporting the fantasy world needed to sustain this president.

The president, the Republican Party, and its campaign machine are collectively seeking to create a completely false picture of the world. This isn’t just a matter of wishful thinking or a few white lies. The president’s campaign staff needs voters to believe that the pandemic is over, or else that it never mattered; that 200,000 people did not really die; that schools aren’t closed; that shops aren’t boarded up; that nothing much happened to the economy; that America is ever more respected around the world; that climate change isn’t real; that the U.S. has no legitimate protesters, only violent thugs who have been paid by secretive groups. This fantasy has to be repeated every day, in multiple forms, on Fox News, in GOP Facebook ads, on websites like RedState. Inevitably, it will affect people’s brains.

…But the same dissonance may also be fueling some of the more ridiculous conspiracy theories now circulating online. The adherents of the QAnon cult may have literally been driven past the point of reason. In order to make sense of the world they can see all around them, they have created an elaborate and obviously false explanation—that an omniscient Trump is fighting a cabal of deep-state satanists and pedophiles. No wonder Republicans, instead of shunning QAnon believers, are working to elect some of them to Congress in November. They genuinely serve a function, helping Trump supporters navigate the gap between the reality they live in and the fiction they see on Fox and Facebook.

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Salon: The Supreme Court is finished: Republicans have killed it. Now it’s time to fight back

What’s striking here is the writers descriptions of the Republican-appointed sitting justices, whom Amy Coney Barrett will presumably join.

Clarence Thomas? A clown. Samuel Alito? A rubber-stamp hack. Neil Gorsuch? A replacement bell-ringer for racism. Brett Kavanaugh? A weepy beer-swilling prep-monster. John Roberts? He wrote the brilliant line, “The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.”

This echoes my characterization of the last few Republican presidents: elected not for their expertise, but for their willingness to advance specific policy goals.

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Slate: Judge Rules Tucker Carlson Is Not a Credible Source of News

A judge dismissed a defamation lawsuit against Fox News’ Tucker Carlson on the grounds that any reasonable person would understand that Carlson

is not “stating actual facts” about the topics he discusses and is instead engaging in “exaggeration” and “non-literal commentary.” … Given Mr. Carlson’s reputation, any reasonable viewer ‘arrive[s] with an appropriate amount of skepticism’ …

Posted in Politics, Psychology, Technology | Comments Off on Links and Comments: America’s Reputation; Facebook; Cognitive Dissonance

Links and Comments: Trump’s would-be theocratic regime; the perfidy of Fox News

How is it Republicans and Christians see no problem with this?

Patheos.com: Leading SCOTUS Candidate Amy Coney Barrett Claims Bible Precedes Constitution.

[Later edit: well of course the Bible literally precedes the Constitution in the sense that it came first, chronologically. But so what? The Code of Hammurabi precedes much of the Bible. The point is, as the article says, “Specifically, Barrett has written that judges should put their religious faith ahead of the law in certain cases.”]

This is just as outrageous as if Muslim was elected to office and proclaimed that the Qu’an trumped the Constitution. Sharia Law, indeed.

Not just that, but:

Newsweek.com: How Charismatic Catholic Groups Like Amy Coney Barrett’s People of Praise Inspired ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’.

Trump’s leading Supreme Court candidate, Amy Coney Barrett, belongs to a Catholic sect called People of Praise, in which a husband is called a “head” and a wife is called… a “handmaid.” Just like in Margaret Atwood’s novel The Handmaid’s Tale, her dystopian story of a future in which women — the few who remain fertile, following some plague — are subjugated by men to be merely baby-machines, and are otherwise dehumanized. (Catholic sects like this one, perhaps this one in particular, were the inspiration for Atwood’s novel.)

(But what’s up with Newsweek.com? The layout is terrible. Newsweek was a respectable magazine for decades, but I think is fading.)

EDIT 26 Sep 20: Correction, via Vox: The false link between Amy Coney Barrett and The Handmaid’s Tale, explained.

OK, they’re not directly connected; Atwood based her book on a different Catholic sect with a similar name, that used similar terminology. So, OK then.

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And then there’s Mike Pompeo.

Mike Pompeo: It’s “Imperative” to Connect U.S. Foreign Policy to Christianity

And he’s pressing for human rights to prioritize “religious freedom” (which means the right to discrimnate against non-Christians) and… property rights (!).

No one’s denying Pompeo his personal faith. But when he brings it into the workplace, as he’s done time and time again, he’s reminding the world that our nation doesn’t give a damn about people who aren’t conservative Christian.

A secular nation shouldn’t be guided by Christian principles — and it sure as hell shouldn’t be guided by the Christianity that has led this Republican administration to commit countless atrocities against refugees, minorities, and its own citizens.

Is it that Christians are too dumb to understand the idea of separation of church and state? Or do they simply not care, and are comfortable with cheating at every possible opportunity (as Trump and the Republican senators are doing with Supreme Court vacancies) to get their way? Do they not realize how selfish and hypocritical their actions make Christians look to the rest of the world?

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And then this about the risible Fox News, which many of us who don’t watch it think is a joke (from everything we hear second-hand), or at best, the prime example of tunnel-vision, motivated reasoning, thinking.

Slate: On Fox News, Conservatives Are the Victims of the SCOTUS Vacancy. Subtitle: “A network built on grievance politics can’t celebrate a fight it’s already won.”

The article quotes conservative commentator Saagar Enjeti with a passage that ends, “The stakes for the election are literally existential right now.” Then goes on:

A lot of people who don’t watch Fox News would agree with Enjeti’s final sentence. But few would agree with his implications—that 1) America’s current existential crisis is posed by Democrats and their antifa puppet masters; and 2) it’s the upright citizens of the GOP who have the most to fear from the aftermath of Ginsburg’s death. Welcome to the Fox News of fall 2020: a fever dream in a fun house mirror in which the excesses, abuses, and cruelties of the Trump era are distorted and reflected back as the sins of the violent, intolerant left. Here, Republicans are always at risk of losing—even, and especially, when they are clearly winning.

Fox News is most effective when it editorializes from a stance of grievance with the fury of the righteous, disempowered outsider. Though it is hard to present as an outsider when you speak for the political party that currently holds the White House and the Senate, Fox does it anyway. In the network’s telling, Normal America is now being held hostage by politically correct elites and professional protest thugs who use rhetorical and actual violence to stifle dissent, intimidate law enforcement, and prevent white people from telling ethnic jokes on Twitter.

This is all very dumb—it’s funny how Fox News’ version of “Normal America” is so easily entranced with risible, xenophobic conspiracy theories—but it is a way of maintaining tribal unity in an era when it might be hard to otherwise rationalize being a Republican. Victimhood is Fox’s superpower.

I’ve suggested many times on this blog that too much exposure to the news, even from the most benign, bland sources, which tend to prioritize the tiny handful of unusual, perhaps upsetting, things going on the world, gives consumers the impression the world is much worse than it used to be (the opposite is true), if not about to end. Fox News does this deliberately. They want to scare you into voting for the party that supports the plutocrats who finance it.

Again about Fox News; “a fever dream in a fun house mirror in which the excesses, abuses, and cruelties of the Trump era are distorted and reflected back as the sins of the violent, intolerant left. Here, Republicans are always at risk of losing—even, and especially, when they are clearly winning.”

Posted in Lunacy, Politics, Religion | Comments Off on Links and Comments: Trump’s would-be theocratic regime; the perfidy of Fox News

Lots of Links, Two Lists, and a Few Comments: Republican Delusion and Denial

Sean McElwee at Rolling Stone, Six Studies That Show Everything Republicans Believe is Wrong

Subtitle: “It’s time for the right wing to stop lying about the minimum wage, taxes, global warming and more”

The great 20th-century economist John Maynard Keynes has been widely quoted as saying, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Sadly, in their quest to concentrate economic and political power in the hands of the wealthiest members of society, today’s Republicans have held the opposite position – as the evidence has piled up against them, they continue spreading the same myths. Here are six simple facts about the economy that Republicans just can’t seem to accept:

(Writers of newspaper stories and magazine articles don’t write their own headlines; the editors do, and sometimes oversell the story. In this case, the essay is limited to items about the economy.) The article is free, so I’ll just list the six items. The statements are what the writer claims are true, while Republican believe the opposite

  1. The Minimum Wage Doesn’t Kill Jobs.
  2. The Stimulus Created Millions of Jobs.
  3. Taxing The Rich Doesn’t Hurt Economic Growth.
  4. Global Warming is Caused by Humans.
  5. The Affordable Care Act is Working.
  6. Rich people are no better than the rest of us.

Items like the last one overlap with the results of the last few decades of psychological research, e.g. the widespread belief that poor or the homeless are that way not through bad circumstances but through their own laziness. (As in those David McRaney books, e.g. reviewed here.) Studies show that simply isn’t true, and for conservatives to believe that it is true seems, to me, to find some convenient circumvention for what their Jesus counseled them to do.

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Here are a bunch of other links I’ll just list by headline and subtitle, for now.

Washington Post: conservative writer Max Boot: The longer Trump stays in office, the crazier the GOP becomes. (Online title: Republicans, Not Democrats, Are the Party Controlled by Extremists.)

Salon via AlterNet: Chauncey DeVega: ‘Mass delusion’: Why Trump’s followers believe their leader has given their lives meaning

Salon, Amanda Marcotte: Trump’s big lies reveal a truth: Right-wing science denial was never about ignorance, just cruelty. Subtitle: “Conservatives have been gaslighting the public about science for decades. Now we’re reaping the consequences”

Salon, Heather Digby Parton: Is Donald Trump mostly evil or mostly ignorant? Bob Woodward’s book offers an answer: Both. Subtitle: “If Trump’s calculated dithering on the coronavirus was obviously malevolent, his foreign policy is just moronic.”

Salon, Amanda Marcotte: Trump’s claim he didn’t want “panic” is laughable — he wants it focused on imaginary threats. Subtitle: Trump doesn’t want “panic” over 190,000 dead — but he’s begging voters to panic over antifa invading “the suburbs”.

Alternet, Alex Henderson: 19 years after 9/11, America’s biggest terrorist threat is far-right white supremacists who love Trump.

The Atlantic, Tom Nichols (author of The Death of Expertise, reviewed here): This Republican Party Is Not Worth Saving. Subtitle: “No one should ever get a second chance to destroy the Constitution.”

And along the same lines, two pieces by the same writer at Washington Post, Jennifer Rubin:

It’s not just Trump. All Republicans must go. And Seven reasons to vote every Republican out of office

What are the seven reasons? She writes paragraphs of descriptions, ending with these summary points:

  1. Republicans facilitated corruption.
  2. Republicans thereby enabled Trump’s abuses of power.
  3. Republicans subverted U.S. national security.
  4. Republicans have supported a commander in chief unfit to lead men and women in uniform.
  5. Republicans have thereby helped foment racial division and violence.
  6. In short, Republicans have put their own political survival above the lives of Americans.
  7. Republicans have thus helped undermine the central attributes of democracy — free and fair elections, and the peaceful transfer of power.

Conclusion:

There is no doubt that if President Barack Obama had committed any of these offenses and Democrats had been as derelict in their constitutional and moral duties as Republicans, the entire right-wing media and political universe would have called for Obama’s impeachment and removal, and for the defeat of every spineless member of his party. Over and over again, Republicans’ hunger to retain power at all costs has triumphed over their obligations to their fellow citizens. They have put Americans’ lives and the nation’s democracy itself at risk. In doing so, they have lost the moral authority to hold power. All of them.

It seems that Republicans are the party of delusion and denial, and they will lead the US, if they stay in charge, to its destruction, or at least diminution in world affairs, setting the stage of dominance by… China?

I could add my standard disclaimer along the lines that, while not all Republicans are deluded and denialists (or racists, or science-deniers, etc. etc.), those who are deluded and denialists, ideologues along these lines, seems to be Republicans.

Enough for today.

Posted in Politics | Comments Off on Lots of Links, Two Lists, and a Few Comments: Republican Delusion and Denial

Links and Comments: Speaking Fox; Ideology and Lies; Fear and Paranoia

It’s difficult to get away from the current crisis, and threat.

The Atlantic, Megan Garber: Do You Speak Fox?. Subtitle: How Donald Trump’s favorite news source became a language

Political theorists, over the years, have looked for metaphors to describe the effects that Fox—particularly its widely watched opinion shows—has had on American politics and culture. They’ve talked about the network as an “information silo” and “a filter bubble” and an “echo chamber,” as an “alternate reality” constructed of “alternative facts,” as a virus on the body politic, as an organ of the state. The comparisons are all correct. But they don’t quite capture what the elegies for Fox-felled loved ones express so efficiently. Fox, for many of its fans, is an identity shaped by an ever-expanding lexicon: mob, PC police, Russiagate, deep state, MSM, MS-13, socialist agenda, Dems, libs, Benghazi, hordes, hoax, dirty, violent, invasion, open borders, anarchy, liberty, Donald Trump. Fox has two pronouns, you and they, and one tone: indignation. (You are under attack; they are the attackers.) Its grammar is grievance. Its effect is totalizing. Over time, if you watch enough Fox & Friends or The Five or Tucker Carlson or Sean Hannity or Laura Ingraham, you will come to understand, as a matter of synaptic impulse, that immigrants are invading and the mob is coming and the news is lying and Trump alone can fix it.

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Salon, Amanda Marcotte: How anti-choice propaganda trained Republicans to accept Trump’s coronavirus denialism. Subtitle: Trump’s new medical adviser peddles a familiar model of deceit: Wrap lies and right-wing ideology in a lab coat.

Donald Trump didn’t like what the experts were telling him about the coronavirus pandemic, so he found a guy with “Dr.” in front of his name who will tell the president the bedtime stories he wants to hear. Dr. Scott Atlas isn’t an expert in infectious disease or epidemiology, as are coronavirus task force advisers Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci, whom he has pretty much usurped. Atlas is a radiologist and, more importantly, a senior fellow at the far-right bad-idea incubator known as the Hoover Institution (previously home to the infamous prediction that the U.S. death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic would be around 5,000).

According to the New York Times and the Washington Post, Atlas — who apparently caught Trump’s eye the way so many of his advisers do, by peddling BS on Fox News — is ready and willing to say all sorts of medically unsound things that just happen to align with everything Trump wants to believe about the coronavirus. So Atlas has risen rapidly as a power player and is reportedly even getting venerable institutions like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to echo his unscientific beliefs.

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Drilling in to the key issue:

The Atlantic, Peter Wehner: Why Trump Supporters Can’t Admit Who He Really Is. Subtitle: Nothing bonds a group more tightly than a common enemy that is perceived as a mortal threat.

This is just the latest installment in a four-year record of shame, indecency, incompetence, and malfeasance. And yet, for tens of millions of Trump’s supporters, none of it matters. None of it even breaks through. At this point, it appears, Donald Trump really could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose his voters.

Still, in the minds of Trump’s supporters lingers the belief that a Biden presidency would usher in a reign of terror. Many of them simply have to believe that. Justifying their fealty to a man who is so obviously a moral wreck requires them to turn Joe Biden and the Democratic Party into an existential threat. The narrative is set; the actual identity of the nominee is almost incidental.

A powerful tribal identity bonds the president to his supporters. As Amy Chua, the author of Political Tribes: Group Instinct and the Fate of Nations, has argued, the tribal instinct is not just to belong, but also to exclude and to attack. “When groups feel threatened,” Chua writes, “they retreat into tribalism. They close ranks and become more insular, more defensive, more punitive, more us-versus-them.”

That works both ways. Fear strengthens tribalistic instincts, and tribalistic instincts amplify fear. Nothing bonds a group more tightly than a common enemy that is perceived as a mortal threat. In the presence of such an enemy, members of tribal groups look outward rather than inward, at others and never at themselves or their own kind.

All about fear, or rather, paranoia.

Posted in Politics, Psychology | Comments Off on Links and Comments: Speaking Fox; Ideology and Lies; Fear and Paranoia

How These Projects Are Proceeding; Status; Word Counts

Projects. I’ve just edited this to change two targets end-dates from 2019 to 2020.

It would be fair to imagine that I’ve gotten more done this year on my various projects than I otherwise would due to the pandemic and the shut-in orders, but that’s not exactly true. I’m retired and stay at home all week anyway. What’s changed is that my partner is working from home four days a week, and so he’s here in the house most of the time. That hasn’t affected me very much; when he’s “working” he does in fact sit on the sofa with his laptop logged into his worksite remotely, often with headphones on to take phone calls or participate in teleconferences. So his presence doesn’t much affect my daily activity. At the same time, given that we’re supposed to stay at home as much as possible, both of us are home most of the time even on weekends, times when a year ago we might have gone shopping, to the gym, to a movie, on a hike, or occasional special trips to museums and whatnot. (We still do hikes when the weather permits.) Which means I get some of my work done even on weekends, that previously with small exceptions had been given over to spending time with him.

(Fortunately, even on weekends, my partner mostly finds things to do on his laptop; he doesn’t turn on the TV and watch it all day. That would drive me crazy.)

On the other hand, the pandemic and its threat to my personal health – I am now 65 and do in fact have a mild heart condition (occasional atrial fibrillation) – has perhaps sharpened my focus and my determination to finish some of these projects that I’ve been working on for years. So here’s where we are.

Sfadb.com expansions:

Aside from routine updates of awards data, the goal of sfadb.com is to post a set of ranked lists of novels and short fiction, and a timeline displaying the top ranking works. I had drafts of all these done a full year ago, but then I decided I needed more anthology data. And that interim project grew and grew. I thought I was nearly done earlier this year, until I realized that what I’d done thus far was essentially a history of sf/f/h anthologies, or even of the fields through anthologies, with one big exception. That was I had ignored original anthologies, since my motive for compiling anthology data was to compile reprint data for classic stories. So I decided to compile original anthologies, especially series and those by major editors, and that took several more months, but the result now is that the Anthologies section of sfadb.com is a semi-independent section of the site in its own right. (Also, as the months went on, I spent several hundred dollars buying physical copies, via Abebooks, of key books I didn’t have, for the sake of the photos on each group page. And then when all was compiled, I did an audit over several weeks to resolve errors in author names and story titles, combine multiple records for the same titles that had crept into place, and so on. For the sake of accurate reprint counts for the stories, and also to avoid obvious duplicate entries on the sfadb.com Name pages.)

So the expanded Anthologies section of sfadb.com, which isn’t “complete” in any way, just cut off for now, took a full year to finish. I’m now taking a break from the sfadb project to work other things. But a key metric is this: on the 118 pages to various groups of anthologies, the descriptions on those pages total right about 30,000 words. (This would be, oh, some 50 pages in a typical book.)

Initial reactions to the expanded Anthologies section included emails and Facebook posts pointing out individual anthologies I’d missed. I updated the Intro to that sections to explain: I missed thousands and thousands! I only compiled about 1400 anthologies, out of over 20,000 indicated at isfdb.com.

Given that I finished drafts of the rankings and timeline a year ago, I’d like to think I can incorporate this new anthology data and finalize all those pages in relatively short order. It would be nice to finish them this year, since it would be 20 years since I first conceived this project. But these things always take longer than I expect.

My Trek Season 1 Essays

After I commented on a Facebook post about one early Trek episode a couple days ago, with links to my posts about them (that got several Likes!), I wondered, how many words did I write in all those episode reviews of Trek’s 1st season, back in 2017? (http://www.markrkelly.com/Blog/bibliographies-and-reviews/trek/). I did a random sample and extrapolated: a couple thousand words each for 29 episodes, plus some sidebar essays; some 60,000 words. I still plan to get around to seasons 2 and 3.

Memoirs, i.e. Family Pics and Personal Narrative

Before this year, I’d written some 17,600 words of family history: posts about family genealogy, recalling the two Apple Valley houses, and so on. The pandemic this year provided a new sense or urgency to get this done. And by now, it is, mostly; what remains is linking the various posts and pages into a coherent structure, and scanning and posting a bunch more pics. Looking back at the work done this year, not all yet posted, I’ve written 57,000 words of memoirs. The total, some 75,000 words, would comprise a book of some 200-250 pages depending on layout and font size. (Not that I think they will ever be published as a book.)

Black Gate Summary-Reviews

I’m gratified that this year I’ve found a gig to write for a wide audience (my blog doesn’t reach much of an audience). Black Gate editor John O’Neill and I have different takes on what I’m doing; that’s OK. John likes my columns as nostalgia pieces for his older audience about early SF books they read as teenagers. My motivation is to reexamine these early SF novels in light of later works and especially the current understanding of science as captured in my Provisional Conclusions and ongoing posts. In a sense, every one of these columns is a thematic draft for my “Book,” about which I’ve done several blog posts of notes but otherwise have no substantial start of. Anyway, the Black Gate columns range from 2000-5000 words, and there have been 18 so far. So, around some 50,000 words.

Thus

So I’m being fairly productive in my retirement, over the last almost 8 years. And I plan to keep chugging along.

This post is just over 1000 words. Written in about an hour. I always revisit posts the next day to correct and polish. (17sep20: done.)

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Notes for the Book: Deutsch on Reality

I’m still, intermittently, reading my way through David Deutsch’s The Fabric of Reality, and today came across these passages, that echo and underscore my thoughts in Notes for the Book: Hierarchy of Knowledge and Human Affairs. I said in that post the cumulative knowledge of hundreds and thousands of years of human investigation is in full view of anyone who cares to look. In books, at Wikipedia, in TED talks, etc etc.

Deutsch makes the crucial observation that the facts of the universe are visible right there in the universe itself, for anyone to see.

Page 95, recalling Galileo:

Every part of the Earth’s surface, on every clear night, for billions of years, has been deluged with evidence about the facts and laws of astronomy. For many other sciences evidence has similarly been on display, to be viewed more clearly in modern times by microscopes and other instruments. Where evidence is not already physically present, we can bring it into existence with devices such as lasers and pierced barriers — devices which it is open to anyone, anywhere and at any time, to build. And the evidence will be the same, regardless of who reveals it. The more fundamental a theory is, the more readily available is the evidence that bears upon it (those those who know how to look)…

The self-similarity of physical reality on several levels is what enables knowledge:

The very existence of general, explanatory theories implies that disparate objects and events are physically alike in some ways. The light reaching us from distant galaxies is, after all, only light, but it looks to us like galaxies. Thus reality contains not only evidence, but also the means (wuch as our minds, and our artefacts) of understanding it. There are mathematical symbols in physical reality. The fact that it is we who put them there does not make them any less physical. In those symbols — in our planetariums, books, films and computer memories, in our brains — there are images of physical reality at large, images not just of the appearance of objects, but of the structure of reality. There are laws and explanations, reductive and emergent. There are descriptions and explanations of the Big Bang and of subnuclear particles and processes; there are mathematical abstractions; fiction; art; morality; shadow photos; parallel universes. To the extent that these symbols, images and theories are true — that is, they resembles in appropriate respects the concrete or abstract things they refer to — their existence gives reality a new sort of self-similarity, the self-similarity we call knowledge.

(End of Chapter 4)

The universe is out there in plain view. Of course, most people are indifferent, and some people refuse to look, as did Church officials when Galileo offered to show them, in his telescope, the four moons orbiting Jupiter. Church officials knew such things couldn’t exist, because Scripture, and so refused to look.

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Links and Comments: A Proposition; Why So Many Still Support Trump

Decades ago, from reading reviews of books and movies I had read and seen, I formulated a proposition that runs something like this:

There is no work of art (book, film, painting, song) so universally admired that someone, somewhere, will not hate it, and think it the worst thing ever; conversely, there is no work of art (book, film, painting, song) so universally disdained that someone, somewhere, will not think it the greatest thing ever.

Some of this is about matters of taste; some negative judgments are irrelevant because they’re off the mark (Amazon reviewers complaining about the price, not the work); some of these are matters of ignorance (all works of art exist in cultural and historical contexts, easily overlooked or misunderstood); and some of this is about the range of human personalities that respond to the world around them in such different ways.

Now I’m thinking to modulate this proposition somewhat. It’s not just that *someone* out there is a contrarian, it’s that the consensus on any particular work of art, or about anything at all, is seldom more than a slight majority. It’s like the elections where a 60% support for one candidate is considered a landslide. I might have thought a landslide is more like 95%. But no matter of taste, in art, or in politics, ever reaches that proportion.

(Aside: this is why science is, to a large degree, to be trusted: it’s not a matter of taste, or opinion. There are always matters of dispute at the very fringes of new thought and new discoveries, but there is no widespread split of opinions about physics, chemistry, evolution, cosmology, and so on. When you keep hearing about how 97% of science studies support human-caused climate changed… it’s turns out the other 3% were methodologically flawed. The Achilles Heel of science is that bad results sometime get published and give the doubters an excuse to dismiss the entire enterprise, and then to use their smartphones — based on so much science and technology than you could believe — to spread the news to their credulous friends.)

But this brings us to politics. How is it, in the face of so many years of performance by our moron (I should have a stock of other adjectives at hand) president, with his obvious lies, with his obvious mismanaging of the pandemic, do something like 40% of the entire US population still support him?? How can they think this man is worthy of being President of the United States?

This isn’t just alarming, it’s puzzling. And part of this question is, as I’ve expressed before, Is this the best conservatives can do to achieve their goals?

But let’s look a couple three articles and essays that ask this very question.

Vox, Ezra Klein (whose book Why We’re Polarized I’m reading): Can anything change Americans’ minds about Donald Trump?. Subtitle: The eerie stability of Trump’s approval rating, explained.

“If you see Trump as ‘the protector of Western Civilization,’ as Charlie Kirk called him the other night at the RNC, or the protector of white America, as Desmond King and Rogers Smith have called him, defending cherished (white Christian) American values from atheist, left-wing socialists who want to take your guns and put Cory Booker in charge of diversifying your neighborhoods, then there’s almost nothing that would make you abandon him,” Tesler continues.

I think this is key: Trump stokes fear into white Christians who fear their world is coming to an end. But again, is that the best they can do? Are there not more competent, honorable men who could accomplish their goals? Do they not realize they are acting like members of a cult, whose leader can do no wrong?

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The most gullible person for conspiracy theories is, apparently, Trump.

NYT: Trump Spread Multiple Conspiracy Theories on Monday. Here Are Their Roots. A handy list.

CNN: Fact check: A guide to 9 conspiracy theories Trump is currently pushing.

And…

Washington Post: Trump’s insulting the troops is just the latest episode of the ‘nothing matters’ presidency

Are all his supporters simply not paying attention??

Washington Post: All the Trump books agree: He’s just as bad as you think.

For people who don’t follow publishing, or book reviews, or news, there have been two or three dozen such books.

But no president has been the subject of as many books by disgruntled, disgusted, and horrified former aides and associates as Donald Trump. And more are coming.

So Trump is obviously not a very good judge of character, if so many of his associates and hired keep quitting and writing nasty book about him. How do Trumpists explain this? (I suspect they are simply not paying attention; they don’t know about all these books; all they know is Fox News and Trump rallies.)

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And then there’s this, about the evangelical movement’s support of Trump.

Salon, Michael Rea: How the evangelical movement became Trump’s “bitch” — and yes, I know what that word signifies. Subtitle: As an evangelical myself, I can see how far the movement has sunk — even to betraying its own ideal of masculinity.

Four years in, people are still struggling to understand the overwhelming support for Donald Trump that has come from what should have been its least likely source: American evangelicals. They belong to a socially conservative movement that embraces traditional Christian morality and family values. Their leaders have loudly insisted, especially during the Clinton years, that the moral character of our president deeply matters. They take as their highest infallible authority a Bible whose central themes include God’s love for the poor and the vulnerable, and a demand to love one’s neighbor — even one’s enemies — to the point of great personal sacrifice.

He, by contrast, is a man whose lifestyle displays little regard for Christian morality or family values. His dishonesty and infidelity have been almost daily news items since before he took office. His reputation for sexual predation, bullying, narcissism and a host of other sins and vices antithetical to Christianity has only continued to grow since he took office. His most notable advice for interacting with half the human population is “grab ’em by the pussy”. Who could have predicted such an alliance?

Answer:

What evangelicals wanted, and found, in Trump was not just a (potentially) powerful ally, but a man of a certain sort — a political strongman whose brash and swaggering demeanor made it clear not only that, but how he would wield power on their behalf.

He was a man who would “tell it like it is” — code for something like “confront people and issues aggressively, without concern for the usual norms of tact, diplomacy, respect, and concern for the feelings of others.” He would “turn over the tables” — code for something like “deliberately upset or circumvent the usual rules and protocols for getting things done in Washington in order to push his own agenda and the agenda of supporters.” In displaying this demeanor while at the same time embracing a socially conservative and superficially Christian-friendly political platform, he sent a clear message. He would deal with evangelicalism’s “oppressors” and cultural enemies in the manner of a political John Wayne, James Bond or Jack Bauer. He would be a hypermasculine tough guy, a modern day Goliath, who would fight on their side in the culture wars.

There’s more.

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I think all of this gives me pause about the prospect for the human race. Or at least American civilization. All cultures go down eventually.

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Link and Comment: Profile of an Anti-Vaxxer

This one deserves a post of its own.

Today in Salon, a profile of a hypothetical anti-vaxxer couple, Jim and Jenny. Inside the mind of an anti-vax parent. Subtitle: A researcher who studies the anti-vaccination movement digs into the psychological profile of a typical anti-vaxxer.

Final paragraph:

Jim and Jenny’s anti-vaccine stance arose in concert with many of the human tendencies, biases, and shortcuts of thinking that we’ve discussed before. People we know are more trustworthy than people we don’t know. Statistics are less convincing than stories. Establishment authorities, such as physicians and federal agencies, engender distrust. Chemicals and substances with long and unpronounceable names can be frightening. We fear that putting things that are not natural into our bodies will make us impure. How we view ourselves and how we appear to our peers informs what we view as good parenting. Now that Jim and Jenny have been convinced they’ve done the right thing, can their minds be changed? Has someone who was anti-vaccine ever changed their mind?

This conclusion echoes themes I’ve discussed here on this blog:

  • It’s all about psychological biases, but especially about group-think, trusting your friends and community even if they’re as misinformed as you are
  • It’s about the sense of purity (cf. Jonathan Haidt)
  • People don’t change their minds from evidence (am I right?)

Also, there was something on Facebook a while ago (Anecdote! Not evidence! But telling!), which I neglected to capture the link for. The gist was, the writer told his friend about two studies that showed that evidence doesn’t change people’s minds. The friend said, I dunno, I don’t think that’s true.

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Links and Comments: US rank in social progress; How to debate a flat earther

Are there any recent links that aren’t about Trump, or the Republicans? Well here’s one about American society in general. USA is Number One?

NYT, Nicholas Kristoff: ‘We’re No. 28! And Dropping!’. Subtitle: A measure of social progress finds that the quality of life has dropped in America over the last decade, even as it has risen almost everywhere else.

This keys off the notion of American exceptionalism, and the idea that the GDP and stock market are the ultimate measures of a nation’s welfare; authors like Hans Rosling and Rutgar Bregman have discussed these issues.

The newest Social Progress Index, shared with me before its official release Thursday morning, finds that out of 163 countries assessed worldwide, the United States, Brazil and Hungary are the only ones in which people are worse off than when the index began in 2011. And the declines in Brazil and Hungary were smaller than America’s.

“The data paint an alarming picture of the state of our nation, and we hope it will be a call to action,” Michael Porter, a Harvard Business School professor and the chair of the advisory panel for the Social Progress Index, told me. “It’s like we’re a developing country.”

The index, inspired by research of Nobel-winning economists, collects 50 metrics of well-being — nutrition, safety, freedom, the environment, health, education and more — to measure quality of life. Norway comes out on top in the 2020 edition, followed by Denmark, Finland and New Zealand. South Sudan is at the bottom, with Chad, Central African Republic and Eritrea just behind.

The United States, despite its immense wealth, military power and cultural influence, ranks 28th — having slipped from 19th in 2011. The index now puts the United States behind significantly poorer countries, including Estonia, Czech Republic, Cyprus and Greece.

The state of the stock market is misleading, even irrelevant, because most Americans don’t own stock; the stock market increasing is only an indication of increased economic inequality. And GDP, Gross domestic product, is problematic because it presumes that endless growth is good, whereas we should be thinking about sustainability in a world where growth has brought about planet-threatening climate change.

Quality of life, by the measures in the quote, should be just as important.

The United States ranks No. 1 in the world in quality of universities, but No. 91 in access to quality basic education. The U.S. leads the world in medical technology, yet we are No. 97 in access to quality health care.

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And here’s this. Flat-Earthers, Anti-vaxxers, QAnon supporters — it’s never about the actual evidence. It’s about taking a stand, to defy the authorities or those elitist scientists, or demonize the politicians you don’t like, and then using motivated reasoning to defend your position, like a lawyer, not a detective or scientist.

Space.com: How to debate a flat-Earther. Subtitle: So, why do people believe this, and is it even worth getting into a debate over?

People who believe that the Earth is flat aren’t coming to that conclusion from the same types of observations. They, instead, believe that we are being misled and lied to, that scientists (including me) want you to believe that the Earth is round, despite its flatness.

So the question isn’t “why do people believe in a flat Earth” but rather “why do people believe in a conspiracy?” And the answer is the same reason it always is: a lack of trust.

Many people don’t trust the society around them, most notably the representatives of that society. That trust often falls even further when it comes to elite representatives of that society, which includes government officials, members of academia and scientists like me.

By claiming that the Earth is flat, people are really expressing a deep distrust of scientists and science itself.

(Some of this dovetails with the themes of the book I just posted about, Scienceblind, about how children and many adults default to their most intuitive notions of how reality works.)

I’m not sure this is quite right. First, some people do come to this conclusion by looking at selective evidence and using naive reasoning. And second, what is it scientists have done that earns mistrust by so many? Have scientists fooled you into believing the aerodynamics that makes planes fly? Have they fooled into into believing the cosmology and quantum dynamics that makes GPS devices work and the internet possible?

I think it’s deeper than that: it’s a commitment to a political or religious ideology, and the rejection of science that challenges that ideology.

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