Links and Comments: Right-Wing Prediction Failure; Why to Doubt; Culture Can’t be Rational

Conservatives, especially religious extremists, seem given over to paranoia and prophecies of doom, and they never learn.

10 Right-Wing Predictions About Obama That Never Came True

Among those implicated: Michele Bachman, Sarah Palin, Joseph Farah, Michael Savage, Glenn Beck, Larry Klayman, Janet Porter, Wayne LaPierre, Rafael Cruz, Rush Limbaugh, Alex Jones. These people never lose their audiences, no matter how repeatedly wrong they are.

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On the more cerebral topic of belief in ‘god’.

A post by Robert V.S. Redick:

And a comment by Jesse Bering to one of his own posts, yesterday:

From an atheist’s perspective informed by psychological science, it’s not simply an absence of evidence for God. There is a plethora of evidence of innate cognitive biases that generate the sort of recalcitrant illusions (misattributions of agency, intentions, continuity of mind after death, etc) underlying the commonsense belief in God and the afterlife.

Bering wrote a whole book about this — The Belief Instinct: The Psychology of Souls, Destiny, and the Meaning of Life — one of the best books on reasons to set religious faith aside as a kind mental illusion.

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And from Connor Wood’s “Science on Religion” blog: Trump shows why Rationalia would fail. I haven’t read this completely yet, but it seems to dovetail with a recurring theme in some of my reading, including having just finished Yuval Noah Harari’s Sapiens, where he emphasizes the human need for “imagined orders” including religions, political systems, and money, systems of shared trust among large groups of people, without which large societies could not function. Culture based on purely rationalistic terms (Neil DeGrasse Tyson’s “Rationalia”) would never work, Wood says. Will pursue.

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Fb review of The Girl on the Train

We saw THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN today, an excellent thriller, starring Emily Blunt. It’s a mystery about a murder that Emily Blunt’s character, an alcoholic who has blackouts, fears she might have committed. It’s a complex story about several men and several women, in that New York suburb, visible from the train that Emily Blunt’s character takes every day, that takes some sorting out about who is involved with whom, for nearly half the movie. Eventually, everything comes into focus, and revelations ensue. The directing and acting is all very good to excellent (I didn’t recognize any of the other actors aside from Blunt, but they were all very good), and the eventual revelation is justified by numerous scenes about the various characters’ background — the baby in the bathtub; the dinner party. Perhaps it’s all a bit too contrived..? But if you like mystery/thriller stories about not just who-dun-it, but about what-really-happened, this is terrific.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3631112

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Fb review of Moonlight

So we saw Moonlight today, the low-budget art-house film that’s been getting lots of media coverage in the past couple weeks, about a young boy struggling with his identity as he grows up in a drug-infested ghetto of Miami. The story is told in three episodes, and in each, the boy is played by a different actor–as Chiron avoids his drug addicted mother; suffers schoolboy bullying at school; finally as a buff adult trying to find a connection in his life. The acting and cinematography and musical cues are all excellent, but by Hollywood standards the film is very slow and introspective. It might get some Oscar nods, but it will never be a box office hit. Finally, I have to say, without being any way spoilery, it has a subtly heartbreaking ending, in a way you almost certainly will not anticipate.

Note the movie poster image is a collage of the three actors playing the boy at different ages.

As an aside, the AMC theatre where we saw this showed at least 6 trailers before the film, including those for two violent action pictures, which seemed completely at odds with the tone of the film we were there to see. But all six film trailers involved black actors in leading roles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moonlight_(2016_film)

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Fb Review of Manchester by the Sea

Yesterday we saw Manchester by the Sea, the new film written and directed by Kenneth Lonergan, starring Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams, and Lucas Hedges, about a distraught man (Affleck) returning to his hometown after the death of his brother, where he discovers he’s been named guardian of his brother’s son (Hedges). Affleck’s character is withdrawn, sullen, and reluctant to commit, seemingly resistant to any kind of human connection, and as the film progresses we get his backstory and understand why. (So the theme of the film recalls that of Lonergan’s first, You Can Count on Me, about two siblings (Laura Linney and Mark Ruffalo) trying to reconnect after a family tragedy.) Manchester is a calm, elegant, deeply felt film, not exactly fun family holiday fare, but ultimately moving and insightful into the way people can break, and perhaps can be brought to try to repair themselves.

There’s a nice review by Anthony Lane is the latest New Yorker.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_by_the_Sea_(film)

http://www.newyorker.com/…/manchester-by-the-sea-and-fantas…

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Film Reviews: La La Land and Hidden Figures

A couple belated capsule film reviews, from the holiday week — La La Land and Hidden Figures.

I loved La La Land, for its charming cheerful songs, its tour of LA locations — especially Griffith Park, that freeway ramp along the I-110, and that hillside road overlooking the valley lined with valet parked cars, where the first dance between Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone takes place — but especially for the alternate history time-loop that appears at a key point in the film. The theme of sacrificing for your dream is hardly unfamiliar, as is the self-reflective idea that maybe you just aren’t good enough to succeed (I think everyone feels that to some degree; it’s more about how long you keep trying), but that those ideas might undermine the film’s easy romance gives the film a slight edge.

We also saw that week Hidden Figures, the movie set in the early 1960s about several black women who played key roles in the early space program, working for NASA in an age when not only women, but certainly ‘colored’ people, were mostly unseen and disregarded by the white male wonks in central control. This is of the Hollywood genre that reflects on history through the filter of contemporary values, in such a blatant way that you can’t quite trust its retelling of history; and its three parallel narratives are obvious and too often played for laughs (as when Taraji P. Henson’s character has to repeatedly run to another building, 1/4 mile away, with the only available ‘colored’ restroom). At the same time, it’s great to see a film recalling our nation’s glory days, when we accomplished great things– launching men into space, later reaching the moon. (Despite my reservations — worth seeing.)

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3783958/

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4846340/

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Some Links from Facebook: Asimov; California; Google Sky; Haidt

I keep ‘saving’ links or posts on Facebook that I don’t get around to right away, to read or post. Here are a few from the dozen I’ve saved in the past month or so.

NPR: Adopting a Sci-Fi Way of Thinking About the Future.

Posted on January 2nd, on what has apparently become National Science Fiction Day as it correponds with Isaac Asimov’s birthday. The piece quotes a key excerpt from a 1978 Asimov essay:

No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be — and naturally this means that there must be an accurate perception of the world as it will be. This, in turn, means that our statesmen, our businessmen, our Everyman, must take on a science fictional way of thinking, whether he likes it or not or even whether he knows it or not. Only so can the deadly problems of today be solved.

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On California, perhaps a refuge from Trumplandia, on Tim Rutten’s site: The Right’s Hatred of California Is Really Fear of a Future that Already Is Working.

What’s really at work in the right-wing’s demonization of California is not really loyalty to Trumpism or traditionalist devotion to the Electoral College. It’s fear of the future. When Trump vowed to “make America great again” the right read his rhetoric as a promise to take us back in time—to the years when white men went off to work and white women stayed home with the kids and minority races were just that, minorities who kept to themselves.

California, by contrast, already is what more of America will look like in the years to come. No single race is in the majority or enjoys a lock on political or economic power. Seventeen percent of all Americans live in California and 38% of them are non-Hispanic whites, 38.8% are Latinos, 14.7% are Asians, 6.5% are African American, 1.7% are Native Americans—numerically, the country’s largest concentration of indigenous people—and 3.8% describe themselves as of mixed race. More Californians—43%–speak a language other than English in their homes, though it will confound Trump supporters to know that immigration from Mexico slowed long ago and the majority of new immigrants come from Asia, mainly China.

And despite conversative fears of how the country is changing, it hasn’t harmed California:

If the Golden State were an independent country, according to the most recent World Bank ratings, it would have the globe’s sixth largest economy.

So there.

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Via David Brin: Google Sky

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Wall Street Journal: Jonathan Haidt (one of my favorite authors, based on the one book of his I’ve read) and Ravi Iyer on How to Get Beyond Our Tribal Politics. Have not read this, but I presume in condenses the lessons of his singular book.

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Index to Reviews

I’ve built a page here for reviews, books and films, that I’ve posted here since mid-2013, when the “Views from..” blog was established, succeeding the earlier Locus Online editorial blog. The link is in the header above. I’ll go through the earlier blog eventually, though I don’t think there are nearly so many substantial reviews there. Also, I occasionally post film reviews on Facebook that aren’t always copied here; I’ll track those down too.

I might also add, for anyone who cares, that I read many more books than ever get written up here. I almost always take notes as I read, and type them up into a Word file (I’ve been doing this for 20 years), but I less often go the next step and condense my notes into any sort of posted review. (At the moment, I do intend a post or two about Robert Silverberg’s short fiction through 1975, which I read late last year, and which covered many books; and James Gleick’s recent nonfiction Time Travel, which I finished last week; and Hugo Gernsback’s notorious ‘classic’ SF novel Ralph 124C 41+, which I finished yesterday.)

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Blog ToC Updated

I spent a couple three hours this afternoon — as a storm moved in over the Bay Area — compiling my own Table of Contents to this blog, and updating that page. I thought I had not posted so much this past year, compared to earlier years, but that turns out only to be true through mid-year, when I got distracted from blogging, and reading, for several months by those video games The Witness and Obduction.

Everything on this blog is a draft for my imagined book — about reality v fantasy, narrative v reality, the human perception of the world v its reality, and how science fiction informs and explores that dissonance.

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Christianity and the Sunk Cost fallacy

In the Christmas Day issue of the New York Times, columnist Nicholas Kristof has a chat with the evangelist Christian pastor and author Timothy Keller, asking Am I a Christian, Pastor Timothy Keller?.

Kristof admires the teachings of Jesus but is skeptical about the literal truth of the virgin birth, and resurrection, and so on. Does that mean he’s not really a Christian? Keller takes a hard line.

The Christian Church is pretty much inexplicable if we don’t believe in a physical resurrection.

Having read for myself how scant the Biblical ‘evidence’ is for a physical resurrection (in my commentaries on books of the New Testament, in 2016 on this blog), this strikes me both as special pleading, and an illustration of the Sunk cost fallacy. As I discussed in one of my earlier posts, the claims about the resurrection (and the virginity of Mary) are so scant and inconsistent, they would not persuade anyone who did not already have a deep, deep commitment to the Christian church — as much of Western society has had for two millennia now. To evaluate that evidence by any contemporary standard and draw the appropriate conclusion would require abandoning the vast investment that society has already been made — all those traditions, all those cathedrals. Unthinkable. So most people don’t think about it. Or obfuscate.

In the letters section a few days later, the writer John Teehan calls out the dangerous implications of such hard-line thinking, in an even broader context.

Mr. Kristof gets to the moral core of the problem with this evangelical theology: It condemns billions of non-Christians to eternal damnation for the simple fact of being non-Christian. The Rev. Timothy Keller’s response is clear: Yes, only those who believe in Jesus can be saved.

This belief is a pure distillation of one of the most dangerous elements of human psychology: the moral bias toward the in-group and against the “other.” This moral tribalism is not restricted to religion (see contemporary politics) but when couched in religious language becomes exceptionally potent.

I think I shall have to read Mr. Teehan’s book.

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An Intelligent Design Video

Decent video that debunks “intelligent design”, triggered off Michael Behe’s claims of irreducible complexity and the human eye, showing evidence of partial eye evolution in other species.

And it pinpoints the human psychological issue– the “personal incredulity” fallacy, i.e., claiming that that you can’t possibly imagine how something could have happened naturally means God, therefore Jesus, therefore your specific faith.

What the video doesn’t do is point out the obvious fact that human eyes *aren’t* perfect, else why do so many of us need eyeglasses? Surely a truly *intelligent* designer could have done better.

(I’m way behind compiled interesting links, and for now I’ll try just posted them as I see them, and catch up eventually.)

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