Secular Values, and Reality as Evil

Two thematic follow-ups to yesterday’s post.

OnlySky, Bruce Ledewitz, 20 Aug 2025: Can people thrive in a secular society?, subtitled “Are secular values the cause of our malaise?”

Yesterday’s post extended a theme on this blog concerning a range or divergence in human nature that I’ve previously characterized (following Lakoff) as conservative vs. progressive. Red vs. blue, tradition vs. change, and so on. Even, emotion vs. logic. That’s the simplex take. The complex take is every single person is a mix of various positions along multiple dimensions of human nature, and it requires such mixes and blends for optimal survival. Iron everyone down to a traditional way of thinking, as the current administration and MAGA are trying to do, and society will suffer. Attacking diversity is self-defeating, if only because other societies that value diversity will then prevail.

Yet there are many who think traditional values are essential and secular values are actively harmful. This piece at OnlySky responds to a recent piece by David Brooks.

New York Times columnist David Brooks is once again attacking secular society, this time including not only secularism but individualism and self-expression, also. In the column, Brooks asks why more people in the world are hopeful, except citizens of Western democracies. His answer is that we are too secular, individualistic and self-expressive.

If certain surveys about the state of the economy, of health, are to be believed, why are American so unhappy? Well, the writer makes a point that certain *other* surveys indicate that relatively secular nation are by their measures and happiest in the world.

What should people do to change things? Brooks’ answer is simple—conservatives in America fare better because they do things that correlate with happiness: “get married, go to church, give to charity, feel patriotic, have more sex and feel life has meaning.”

But these, of course, are the priorities of basic human survival, and thus of base human nature. Which *also* entails hostility toward outsiders, and resistance to change. Which is you get to MAGA. Is this what Brooks really wants?

Perhaps the priority is the “feeling that life has meaning.”

Some secular thinkers have responded to observers like Brooks by arguing that people make their own meaning. In other words, people decide what is meaningful for them.

But this is misleading. It is probably the case that a person must feel there is a point to human existence first, before embracing life and its many possibilities. Something about the human brain may just feel the need to be a part of something larger than one human life in order for a person to feel fulfilled.

Humanity’s religious traditions have historically supplied those larger narratives of the purpose of human life. The new secular contexts some countries are living today lack those explanations. Brooks’ argument raises the question whether such a narrative about human life is necessary to have a flourishing society. If Brooks is right, even to some extent, we secularists will have to decide how to respond.

Anyway, the smart ones figure  out early that (as I said yesterday) the nationalistic and religious narratives exist precisely to bond the community and society together, all the better since they are not literally true. Are we to give up, for sake of Brooks’ “feeling that life has meaning,” acknowledging reality? That there is more to life than our one tribe? The article ends:

There are basically only two possibilities. One is to get used to the bad news. There is no general point to existence. We’re here and we might as well live as well as we can, but that is all you can say. This was the message of one of the original New Atheists—Philip Kitcher—in his [2007] book, Living With Darwin.

The other possibility is to decide that life has meaning even without a deity behind it. But that would require a spiritually revived secular movement. At the moment, a secular movement like that does not exist. And there is no sign that it will arrive any time soon.

(The article gets the date of the Kitcher book wrong; I looked it up.)

The essential problem is that the protocols of Brooks’ “meaningful” life break down when different societies are brought into competition, or when faced with complex problems. But I suspect Brooks is thinking only of America, and the MAGA-vision of a glorious, simpler past.

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What would the solution be? What is the problem? Well here’s another piece that states the problem this way:

Aeon, Drew M Dalton, 22 Aug 2025: Reality is evil, subtitled “Everything eats and is eaten. Everything destroys and is destroyed. It is our moral duty to strike back at the Universe”

We might begin by considering what “evil” means, in the broadest possible sense. Notionally, any force against survival, from a person who would kill us, to the person who would abuse our child (because disturbing the natural development of a child might diminish their capacity to have children of their own). What is the basis for morality? Relying on a ‘god’ is circular, because ‘god’ is a creation of humans, reflecting the priorities of human nature; thus God has precisely the motivations for survival as base human nature — from having children to enjoying the smell of cooking meat.

The physicists have pointed this out: there is no escaping the eventual death of the universe. That’s the sense that the writer means, I think, who begins:

Reality is not what you think it is. It is not the foundation of our joyful flourishing. It is not an eternally renewing resource, nor something that would, were it not for our excessive intervention and reckless consumption, continue to harmoniously expand into the future. The truth is that reality is not nearly so benevolent. Like everything else that exists – stars, microbes, oil, dolphins, shadows, dust and cities – we are nothing more than cups destined to shatter endlessly through time until there is nothing left to break. This, according to the conclusions of scientists over the past two centuries, is the quiet horror that structures existence itself.

We might think this realisation belongs to the past – a closed chapter of 19th-century science – but we are still living through the consequences of the thermodynamic revolution. Just as the full metaphysical implications of the Copernican revolution took centuries to unfold, we have yet to fully grasp the philosophical and existential consequences of entropic decay. We have yet to conceive of reality as it truly is. Instead, philosophers cling to an ancient idea of the Universe in which everything keeps growing and flourishing. According to this view, existence is good. Reality is good.

But what would our metaphysics and ethics look like if we learned that reality was against us?

The writer goes on to put the situation in terms of the laws of thermodynamics, which confound human fantasies about continued growth, even of a sustainable future. (Of course the timescales are wildly incompatible.)

Reality, as we now understand, does not tend towards existential flourishing and eternal becoming. Instead, systems collapse, things break down, and time tends irreversibly towards disorder and eventual annihilation. Rather than something to align with, the Universe appears to be fundamentally hostile to our wellbeing.

According to the laws of thermodynamics, all that exists does so solely to consume, destroy and extinguish, and in this way to accelerate the slide toward cosmic obliteration. For these reasons, the thermodynamic revolution in our understanding of the order and operation of reality is more than a scientific development. It is also more than a simple revision of our understanding of the flow of heat, and it does more than help us design more efficient engines. It ruptures our commonly held beliefs concerning the nature and value of existence, and it demands a new metaphysics, bold new ethical principles and alternative aesthetic models.

There’s always the danger, even among philosophers, of using words that imply some conscious intent. The universe isn’t consciously hostile; it just is. But the workings of the universe have given rise to flows of energy that in some cases manifest themselves as beings, some of whom develop protocols for survival, without which they would not survive. And some beings can endure for millions of years, even if the eventual death of the universe, over billions of years, is inevitable.

The writer goes on in detail about the laws of thermodynamics. Then find attempts to envision new visions of the cosmos, by Nietzsche, Stengers, Stiegler, and Mussett, inadequate.

We must start by admitting that the Universe is finite and will eventually end. Moreover, we must accept that the function of the Universe is to hasten this extinction. The laws of thermodynamics reveal, in other words, that what we might view as the generative power of the Universe is instead bringing about the annihilation of everything: the flourishing of life is always contributing to the eventual collapse of the cosmos.

And he invokes Sean Carroll and Nick Lane. And others. And ponders ethics.

What, then, are we to do? The only ‘ought’ we can tentatively derive from the vision of reality revealed by the thermodynamic revolution is this: it is our duty to strike back at the Universe. For it is precisely in the possibility of retaliating against the moral horror of existence that new ethical imperatives and aesthetic insights might be forged. Only by striving to break free from reality’s malign grip can we shape an ethics and aesthetics from the bleak metaphysics of entropic decay laid bare by contemporary science.

But the article ends there.

Evening plans, so I need to wrap up this post for now. But I’ll follow up with further thoughts soon. There’s a piece or two missing.

Posted in Cosmology, Meaning, Philosophy, Physics, Science | Leave a comment

Everything Old and Simple; Conservatives, the Conceptual Ceiling, and Cognitive Dissonance

  • Conceptual ceiling and conservatives;
  • Thoughts about how humanity might survive, via deliberate cognitive dissonance: “One mindset to maintain the tribe and ensure near-term survival; another to solve problems that threaten long-term survival.” Which one is right? Both are, in different contexts.
  • Can people thrive in a secular society?;
  • Items about the anti-vaxx playbook; Trump and the Smithsonian; Trump and heaven; Gavin Newsom’s trolls; and several others.
– – –

 

I’ve written before about how maybe humanity may have hit a sort of conceptual ceiling, where not enough of us are able, or willing, to understand the complexities of the modern world and would prefer to turn the clock back to simpler ways of life, or reject reality entirely in favor of the local mythology or religion.

But today’s thought, distilling dozens of examples of political behavior every day, is that — of course, since humanity is a spectrum along many dimensions and not everyone is the same — is that many people have already hit this ceiling. To them, everything old and simple is better than anything new and complex. Raw milk, good. mRNA vaccine, or any vaccines at all, bad. The Nazis were the good guys after all, because they hated the same icky people, more or less, that MAGA and ICE hate. Our authoritarian president is preferred by millions who claim to follow the principles of the Constitution, but by doing so don’t. The flat earth is intuitive–just look out the window. Don’t believe anything you can’t see with your own eyes. Climate change is unreal, because the evidence is too complex to understand, and anyway, father god will take care of us.

These are the conservatives.

Conservatives have decided, through their churches and parents and perhaps home-schooling, or perhaps through conservative inculcation (as noted in previous post), that they already know everything they need to know, refuse to learn anything new, and will never change their minds.

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That said, it’s not all or nothing, which may be how humanity ekes out our continued existence. There’s a vast culture of clear-thinking people out there, in America and all the other nations as well who, to one degree or another, understand how the real world works, including why the nationalistic and religious myths came to exist and why they endure. These people may not be the majority, but they are more than the religionists realize. They’re the people who invented the world by coming to understand it, despite religious opposition, and who keep it running. They’re too polite when speaking to the conservatives to point this out, but they understand the conservatives, more than the conservatives understand them. Conservative explanations of people who challenge their fixed beliefs involve demons, or Satan; no explanation at all. The smart peoples’ explanation of the world, despite the conservatives, are in universities (which conservatives would de-fund or penalize) and books (which conservatives would ban), such as the many books discussed on this blog.

It’s not all or nothing even within an individual. This is a striking feature about human nature. One can work a job building bridges and go home at night and cast spells to candles and diagrams on the floor. Or be a leading biologist and think a waterfall is somehow evidence of the trinity of God.

Perhaps the survival of the race depends on us being of two minds. A maintenance of cognitive dissonance. One mindset to maintain the tribe and promote near-term survival; another to solve problems that threaten long-term survival.

So which mindset is “right”? Both, depending on circumstances and context. It’s never black and white. That’s the key to wisdom.

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Brief posts of other items from the past few days. Though this first one may directly apply to my discussion above.

OnlySky, Bruce Ledewitz, 20 Aug 2025: Can people thrive in a secular society?, subtitled “Are secular values the cause of our malaise?”

This responds to a David Brooks NYT column, which I likely have linked. I will follow up on this.

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This is mostly predictable, since it’s been done before, with tobacco, etc. I’ll try to look at this more closely too.

NY Times, Jessica Steier, 19 Aug 2025: The Playbook Used to ‘Prove’ Vaccines Cause Autism [gift link via Morning Heresy]

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Real history: bad. Nationalistic history: good. If your goal is to solidify the tribe, against history and reality.

CNN, 20 Aug 2025: Trump escalates attacks against Smithsonian museums, says there’s too much focus on ‘how bad slavery was’

And because some conservatives don’t think slavery was so bad.

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I shouldn’t be surprised by this, but it’s perfectly consistent with my general thesis.

NY Times, Shawn McCreesh, 19 Aug 2025: ‘I Want to Try and Get to Heaven’: Trump Gets Reflective on ‘Fox & Friends’, subtitled “President Trump cast his effort to broker peace in Ukraine in existential terms.”

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More about Gavin Newsom’s social media trolling.

NY Times, 20 Aug 2025: Gavin Newsom’s Latest Role: Social Media Troll, subtitled “The California governor’s press office is mimicking President Trump’s distinctive Truth Social style on X. Liberals love it. The White House says it’s ‘just getting weird at this point.'”

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The Atlantic, Eliot A. Cohen, 19 Aug 2025: The Sword and the Book, subtitled “Pete Hegseth is wrong to think that civilians have little role to play in military education.”

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Politico, 17 Aug 2025: Russia is quietly churning out fake content posing as US news

Subtitled: A pro-Russian propaganda group is taking advantage of high-profile news events to spread disinformation — and they’re spoofing reputable news outlets to do it.

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Slate, Andrew Koppelman, 20 Aug 2025: Trump Has Found a Cruel New Way to Attack Trans Veterans

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PolitiFact, 20 Aug 2025: Donald Trump: The Smithsonian Institution includes “nothing about success, nothing about brightness, nothing about the future.”

Rating: Pants on Fire.

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How to say you’re an ignoramus.

JMG, 20 Aug 2025: Trump: “Days Of Wind And Solar Stupidity Are Over”

JMG provides some context:

A simple fact check: “According to a recent analysis by Energy Innovation, states that have leaned heavily into wind and solar — like Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico — have actually seen slower electricity price growth compared to the national average. Iowa, which now gets nearly 60% of its electricity from wind, saw its rates increase more slowly than 42 other states over the past decade.”

Posted in Politics, Psychology | Leave a comment

Liberal and Conservative Goals

  • Why conservatives inculcate young thinkers, and liberals don’t (need to);
  • Christian pastors in Kentucky want to shield children from LGBTQ books; why not shield them from the Bible? Which influence is worse? It depends on your goals, which are driven by evolution;
  • Thoughts about what clear thinking gets you;
  • The Onion [a satire site!] about a conservative “proudly frightened of everything.”
– – –

Now why would this be?

Vox, Zack Beauchamp, 20 Aug 2025: How conservatives help their young thinkers — and why liberals don’t, subtitled “Liberalism has a serious pipeline problem.”

Let me guess before even reading the article. It’s the flip side of “reality has a liberal bias.” Ideology, including religion, must be taught; it is not out there in the objective world to be discovered. Thus, the children need training, or inculcation. Get them while they’re young.

But what does Zack say?

First, he acknowledges the preponderance of liberals on college campuses. And how the conservative industry has fought back.

One of the founding texts of the postwar conservative movement, William F. Buckley’s God and Man at Yale, is all about how academia is full of socialists who are chipping away at the eternal truths of capitalism and Christianity. Buckley founded National Review as an antidote to what he saw as the liberal tilt of the mainstream American press.

The legacy of Buckley-style thinking is the rise of a conservative ideas industry. A young person nowadays could attend college at right-wing Hillsdale, build their law school life around membership in the Federalist Society, and then get a job writing right-wing papers for the Heritage Foundation — all while getting their news from Fox News and Mark Levin’s radio show.

Thus conservative bubbles.

There is no parallel culture in American liberalism — a function, in part, of liberalism’s longtime intellectual dominance. There wasn’t much of a need for liberal donors to create programs to cultivate liberal thought, as people interested could simply go get a PhD or an entry-level reporting job.

However, these institutions were not avowedly liberal in character. They styled themselves as politically neutral, focused more on quality research and reporting, than as contributing to a particular ideological cause. This means that while liberals in such fields were in left-leaning environments, many were trained to see themselves primarily as professionals working a craft.

Then:

But the conservative intellectual model bridges the philosophy-policy gap. It trains young people in the big-picture ideas, like conservative visions of political morality and religion, and teaches them to connect those things to everyday policy discussions. You aren’t learning about abstract ideas or concrete policy, but rather learning a comprehensive worldview that treats policy issues as downstream of specific values.

You are, in short, learning an ideology.

Bingo. Concluding, nevertheless, that liberalism has a problem.

Liberalism has plenty of brilliant theorists who work at a largely abstract level, and policy wonks who work on the most applied issues. But in the middle area of ideology, one bridging the gap between principle and policy, they’ve basically ceded the field to conservatism. The pipeline problem for young people is a symptom of the movement’s blind spot: liberals, as a collective, don’t care to cultivate a youth ideological cadre.

This might not have been a problem in the past — and maybe even a benefit. Ideological thinking tends to produce rigidity, an unwillingness to adjust one’s policy thinking based on new evidence. The right’s longtime insistence that tax cuts can reduce deficits, or addiction to proposing military solutions to foreign policy problems, are two examples of curdled ideology.

But we’re at a moment where liberalism is in a particular kind of crisis: under threat from new ideologies that challenge not specific liberal policy ideas, but the basic premises of a liberal political system. Liberals need a new and compelling vision: one that explains why our ideas are not merely a defense of an unpopular status quo, but a broader politics that can be used to address cardinal problems of the 21st century.

At this moment, liberals lack the personnel to articulate such a vision — while the right’s radical thinkers, at places like Claremont, seize the field.

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Blinkered conservatism.

Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, 20 Aug 2025: Christian pastors in Kentucky urge theft of LGBTQ books from Shelbyville public library

Subtitled: Calling it “civil disobedience,” pastors at Reformation Church say a member has already stolen the books so library patrons can’t access them

(Once again, conservatives, including religious folks like these, are driven by the motivations of base human nature, which prioritizes survival of the tribe and reproduction. They will thus demonize any human behavior that they think does not support those goals. Never mind individual human freedoms and rights [they don’t really believe in the US Constitution], never mind that the human population has grown so large we are ruining the planet and don’t need to keep reproducing, and so on.)

Hemant concludes:

It’s telling that these pastors are cloaking themselves in righteousness while spreading lies about books they haven’t even read, all to manufacture outrage and fuel their culture war. They’re not really afraid of “perversion” or “grooming.” They’re worried that a child might read one of these books and realize that love, identity, and family can exist in forms beyond the rigid boundaries set by these men. Instead of expanding their own minds, these pastors have nothing to offer by censorship, theft, and deceit. Because their faith is too weak to withstand any scrutiny.

They’re railing against sin while engaging in it themselves. And the message to the LGBTQ kids in their pews and their community is that their lives are too shameful even to be read about. That’s the legacy of these kinds of men. They’re not heroes or martyrs for their faith. They’re petty, pathetic censors terrified of new ideas, who only want to stand in the way of human dignity by calling it God’s work.

Now, what if I were in charge of the local library in Shelbyville, Kentucky, and decided that the exposure to children of the Bible was crippling their ability to think and reason? After all, they are taught to take the Bible literally, despite all the many absurd, inconsistent, and irrational stories contained therein. This, I have argued, as resulted in a population ripe for belief in irrational conspiracy theories…

And yet, and yet — it depends what your purpose is about. Arguably, insistence on common myths promotes tribal survival through shared mythology. High reproductivity insures against the occasional plague or drought that reduces the population. What does clear thinking get you?

Well, it gets you the ability to solve problems that the individual tribes cannot solve by themselves. Like climate change. Which may be why the religious tribes still don’t “believe” in climate change. Because they have not been trained to understand data and draw conclusions from them; they’ve been trained to believe in stories.

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Once again, my take on conservatives, via Facebook:

The Onion, 20 Aug 2025, reposted from 10 Oct 2022: Conservative Man Proudly Frightened Of Everything

It’s a short piece; I’ll quote just the first two sentences, about half.

FLOWER MOUND, TX—Condemning the “woke left” for what he called the “modern evisceration of masculinity,” local conservative man Hank Daniels confirmed Monday that he was never going to stop being proudly frightened of everything. “I’m proud as hell to be scared of everything, and there’s nothing you can do to silence me about that fact,” said Daniels, puffing out his chest as he spoke from behind a barricaded basement door that he had reinforced to keep out the “terrifying liberals, women, and immigrants who haunt my thoughts, at all hours of the day and night, whether I’m awake or asleep,” which he told reporters he was not ashamed to admit in the slightest.

Again, there’s an evolutionary rationale here. If humanity has survived for millions of years through such caution, then why not continue that policy?

The answer is: because humanity has become smarter, via the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment, and humanity now faces existential problems that cannot be solved by fearful people huddling in tribes.

(The Onion is a satire site, if anyone doesn’t know.)

Posted in Politics, Psychology, Religion | Leave a comment

Eugene Burdick & Harvey Wheeler: FAIL-SAFE

(First published 1962. Edition show here: HarperCollins/Ecco, trade paperback, 1999, 286pp.)

Here’s another book that begs categorization; is it really science fiction? I’ve grouped this book with two previously discussed, Pat Frank’s ALAS, BABYLON and Nevil Shute’s ON THE BEACH, because each involves nuclear war in some fashion. And since nuclear war is about the most drastic kind of change that the human race might ever experience, it fits into our broad take of science fiction being about the effects of change on the human race.

In Frank’s novel, the war happens on stage, so to speak, during the course of the story. In Shute’s, it’s happened a year or so before the story begins. In this book — well I should avoid the big spoiler, which applies to the very end.

There’s more technology in this book than in the other two, though it’s contemporary technology of the time, and was unfamiliar to anyone outside military circles.

Summary

During a routine scramble of air force fleets that are constantly poised to strike at the Soviet Union if necessary, a “return” signal to one fleet is lost. The fleet flies on, to Moscow. All attempts to recall the fleet, or even shoot it down, fail. Military protocols designed to prevent the Soviets from mimicking such signals, even mimicking the voices of the President or one of the pilot’s wives, require that the fleet fly on.

The action follows the military in the US, including the President, to do everything they can think of to recall the fleet and prevent it from bombing Moscow. That could trigger a nuclear holocaust. Spoiler: they do not succeed, but that’s not the biggest spoiler.

Notes

In the 1964 movie version, the president of the US is very effectively played by Henry Fonda, cool and measured and determined. He should have been nominated, at least, for an Oscar. He shared many scenes with pre-I Dream of Jeannie Larry Hagman, playing a Russian translator the president needs once he gets on the phone with the Soviet premiere. The other most prominent actor is Walter Matthau, playing a cynical academic theoretician who speculates what the Soviet response might be to any particular outcome.

The early chapters of the book are curious because they commit what critics tell writers not to do, especially science fiction writers: info-dump. In this book the info-dumps are pages and pages at a time of background on particular characters. The translator about his casual genius speaking Russian and how he ended up at the White House; the academic about his differences with other experts of nuclear policy. These sections serve the book well, because once the tension starts mounting, you understanding why, given these backgrounds, the different characters react the way they do.

Particular scenes

The movie follows the book closely. With a couple exceptions. There’s a scene in the movie in which the wife of one of the pilots is put on the phone to plead that he return; it’s not in the book. And for years I’ve had a false memory about what triggers the malfunction that prevented the fleet from returning. In the book, it’s a burned fuse in an electronics console at just the moment someone has lit a cigarette, so no one smells the fuse. In the movie, it’s a large module replace dropped into a console that somehow doesn’t connect. What I thought I’d remembered, before watching the movie a second time some years ago, was that a paper computer tape, spooling underneath a console, got tangled up on itself and didn’t feed where it should have gone. Was that memory from something else?

The end (the real spoiler)

As we come to understand in the early scenes, military and academic men had debated nuclear war strategy for decades. The US developed a No First Use policy; it would launch only if the Soviets struck first. Mutually assured destruction: once begun, it would be hard to stop a worldwide nuclear conflict, so trying to unilaterally destroy the Soviet Union would simply trigger automated missiles to destroy the United States. But what about accidents, as in this story? We hear some of these debates in book and movie, especially involving the Matthau character. In the war room one of the generals goes berserk, in a sense, figuring that if they can’t stop the one bomb, they might as well launch all the bombs and wipe out the Soviets anyway, whatever the risk. The decision ultimately lies with the President, who finds another solution, drawing on a Biblical parable. (I’m still not going the spell that out.)

Would that solution work? I doubt it would. But it makes for a startling, dramatic finish to both the book, and the film.

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Once again, for all that MAGA folks are nostalgic for the 1950s, in a significant way that era was a time of constant apprehension, knowing that at any moment nuclear could break out, and that the world might not survive it. There were other novels than the three I’ve covered; there were episode of The Outer Limits and The Twilight Zone; there were those TV movies in the 1970s, like “The Day After,” that some piece I linked to recently discussed.

And it’s still there. Nuclear missiles are still in their silos, and surely the technology for monitoring the other side, and strategies for how to handle any situation, are as discussed and debated as they were in the 1950s and ’60s

Posted in Book Notes, science fiction | Leave a comment

Further Reports on the Current Crisis

  • Robert Reich on groveling and inept and unprincipled people;
  • Heather Cox Richardson on our idiot-child president;
  • By wanting to banish mail-in ballots nationwide, Trump attacks states’ rights, a conservative principle for centuries;
  • On the same theme, Thomas B. Edsall looks at the mind-boggling intrusiveness of the Trump administration;
  • Similarly, a demand in Texas that all citizens stand for Christian prayers; a charge that naturalized citizens “are not Americans”; a complaint that teaching that slavery existed (and was bad) is “woke”; and two know-nothings agree that science says nothing about climate change;
  • The Week wonders if medical science will survive RFK Jr., with comments by Andrew Egger.
    – – –

     

    This can’t go on indefinitely; it hasn’t before.

    Robert Reich, 18 Aug 2025: Why Trump will fail, subtitled “The iron law of grovelers and those to whom they grovel”

    Monica Crowley, a former Fox News personality who is now Trump’s chief of protocol, apparently left behind in a public area of an Alaskan hotel documents describing confidential planned movements of Trump and Putin during their Friday meeting in Alaska.

    That’s nothing compared to Emil Bove, Trump’s new nominee for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, who reputedly told subordinates at the Department of Justice that they should tell the courts “f*uck you” and ignore any court order blocking the deportations of Venezuelan migrants declared to be gang members.

    And then Billy Long, E.J. Antoni…

    I haven’t even mentioned the towering ineptitude of Trump’s Cabinet picks, such as Pete Hegseth, Pam Bondi, Kash Patel, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Kristi Noem. Or the flagrant cruelty and wild negligence of Trump assistants Russell Vought and Stephen Miller.

    How to explain the rise of so many inept and unprincipled people?

    Easy. They could never succeed on their own merits. As soon as their brainless incompetence became apparent — likely as soon as they took the first job that required some degree of intelligence and integrity — they were fired.

    So they learned that the if they wanted to be rewarded with promotions, money, and power, they could not rely on the normal processes and systems of recognition for jobs well done. If they were to make anything of themselves, they must instead become ass-lickers, lapdogs, and sycophants.

    Thus:

    They must latch onto someone who values loyalty above integrity or competence, someone for whom fawning obsequiousness is the most important criterion for being hired and promoted, ideally someone who cannot tell the difference between a groveling toady and a knowledgeable adviser.

    Enter Trump.

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    Heather on our idiot-child president.

    Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from and American:: August 18, 2025

    Excerpts…

    This morning, J.D. Wolf of Meidas News pulled together [I inserted the link, from HCR’s soures] all of Trump’s self-congratulatory posts from Sunday morning, when the president evidently was boosting his ego after Friday’s disastrous meeting with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Trump shared an AI-generated meme of himself with a large male lion standing next to him and the words “Peace through Strength. Anyone can make war, but only most courageous [sic] can make peace.” He posted memes claiming he is the “best president…in American history” and the “G[reatest] O[f] A[ll] T[ime], a “legend.”

    Trump also reposted material from two QAnon-related accounts and pushed the QAnon belief that the Democratic Party is “the party of hate, evil, and Satan.” Trump has faced a rebellion among his QAnon supporters as he and administration officials have refused to release information from the federal investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and have moved Epstein’s associate Ghislaine Maxwell, convicted of sex trafficking children, to a minimum-security prison camp and given her work-release privileges. It appears he’s working to make QAnon supporters forget that he was named in those files and to lure them back to his support.


    Trump’s social media account this morning posted a long screed saying the president is “going to lead a movement to get rid of” mail-in ballots and voting machines, and lying that the U.S. is the only country that uses mail-in voting because it is rife with fraud. As usual, the post claimed that Democrats “CHEAT AT LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE” and claimed they “are virtually Unelectable without using this completely disproven Mail-In SCAM.” The post said he would sign an executive order “to help bring HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections.”

    This is bonkers across the board. Dozens of countries use mail-in voting, and there is zero evidence of widespread voter fraud in the U.S. Just today, news broke that right-wing channel Newsmax will pay $67 million to Dominion Voting Systems for spreading false claims that the company’s voting technology had been rigged to give the 2020 presidential election to Democrat Joe Biden.

    These obvious lies make it seem crystal clear that Trump and his loyalists are preparing to reject any election results that they don’t like.

    Trump’s panic about facing voters is increasingly evident. His job approval ratings are already abysmal, and the fallout from his tariffs and deportations is only now beginning to show. Last Thursday, a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index—wholesale costs that will likely show up later in consumer costs—jumped 0.9% in July, the largest jump since June 2022, when the U.S. was mired in post-pandemic inflation. The wholesale price of vegetables jumped 38.9% in July.

    With examples about the effects of tariffs, among other topics.

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    Another pair of related items.

    Remember how conservatives have always stressed states’ rights? That’s what they’ve always said the Civil War was about (not slavery). They’re not so concerned about states’ rights anymore.

    CNN, analysis by Aaron Blake, 18 Aug 2025: Trump’s remarkable statement against states’ rights

    President Donald Trump’s announcement Monday that he will sign an executive order aimed at getting rid of mail-in ballots and voting machines seems unlikely to amount to much. He doesn’t appear to have any such authority, and legal challenges would surely follow.

    But it was instructive in one way: It made clear the president elected to lead the party of states’ rights has very little regard for states’ rights.

    Indeed, he almost seems to disdain them.

    And:

    While selling his new pitch to get rid of mail-in voting and voting machines, Trump included this remarkable pair of sentences.

    “Remember, the States are merely an ‘agent’ for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “They must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them, FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY, to do.”

    Trump has described the states as “agents” of the federal government before in this context, but without casting them as subservient to him personally.

    This is a rather novel take on the Constitution, to put it mildly.

    All his MAGA fans don’t care, likely won’t notice. One more bit:

    But just as striking as Trump’s claim to power on Monday was his explicit statement that states are merely his “agents.”

    This is very difficult to square with decades of conservative orthodoxy, which holds that the federal government should be small and that states should lead the way.

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    On the contrary. Trump’s administration wants to control everything at every level.

    NY Times, guest essay by Thomas B. Edsall, 19 Aug 2025: The Mind-Boggling Intrusiveness of Donald J. Trump

    The Trump administration ranks among the most intrusive in American history, driving the tentacles of the federal government deep into the nation’s economy, culture and legal system.

    Economically, the administration is dictating corporate behavior through tariffs, subsidies and the punishment of disfavored industries and companies, while rewarding allies with tax breaks and deregulation. And that’s all before the government takes its cut.

    Culturally, Trump is seeking to redefine the boundaries of public discourse: pressuring universities, elevating grievance politics and reshaping federal agencies to reflect ideological loyalty rather than expertise or experience.

    Within the legal system, the administration is aggressively reshaping the federal judiciary, asserting executive power over independent institutions and using the Justice Department for political ends.

    Taken together, these interventions reveal a presidency determined to expand executive reach into virtually every sphere of national life.

    Again, his MAGA fans haven’t notice, or approve!

    As usual with Edsall essays, this one goes on with many quotes from various sources to support this thesis.

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    Links about the MAGA/religious conservative mindset.

    Friendly Atheist, Hemant Mehta, 19 Aug 2025: Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick demands citizens stand for Christian prayers—or else

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    JMG, 19 Aug 2025: Charlie Kirk: Naturalized Citizens “Are Not Americans”

    Again, conservatives are obsessed with purity, and tribalism. Not principles.

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    JMG, 19 Aug 2025: Trump Attacks “Woke Out Of Control Smithsonian” For Teaching “How Bad Slavery Was” Instead Of Hailing US

    Once again: tribalism. The tribe is good. You are good. All of our tribe are good. Rely only on the stories we tell you. It’s the others who are bad.

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    JMG, 19 Aug 2025: Charlie Kirk And Energy Secretary Chris Wright Agree That “Science Says Nothing” About Climate Change

    Tell me you’re an uneducated ignoramus without saying those words.

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    Reading the latest issue of The Week, and a piece about “Will medical science survive RFK Jr.?” that quotes this piece, Spitting on a Miracle, from Bulwark, by Andrew Egger.

    It concludes thus. The last line is the point.

    When it comes to questions of misinformation, you can always find a line of heterodox thinking that wants to scold the elites first. People are supposed to believe crazy things about COVID and the shots because Anthony Fauci was too hectoring, or the official guidance for how to deal with the pandemic changed too many times, or because Joe Biden was too heavy-handed with vaccine mandates. But it’s impossible to tell that story with a straight face here. America didn’t turn on an unbelievably promising vaccine technology that literally just saved millions of our lives like two seconds ago because of an elite failure. They did so because right-wing distrust for anything that feels “official” is a suppurating wound on the body politic, and the infection has spread to the brain.

Posted in Lunacy, Politics, Psychology | Leave a comment

The Ultimate Cognitive Bias, and Political News

  • Steve Stewart-Williams about an attempt to identify the one cognitive bias to rule them all: the confirmation bias;
  • Political notes: How Trump claims victory yet again; how even Fox News noticed that not much was accomplished at that summit;
  • And Salon’s Amanda Marcotte on why MAGA calls Trump “Daddy”.
– – –

Via Jerry Coyne:

Steve Stewart-Williams, The Nature-Nurture-Nietzsche Newsletter, 9 Aug 2025: One Bias to Rule Them All, subtitled “All cognitive biases = one of a handful of fundamental beliefs + confirmation bias”

(Actually a repost of something earlier, the writer acknowledges. I have a book by this author that looks intriguing but have not yet read: Darwin, God and the Meaning of Life: How Evolutionary Theory Undermines Everything You Thought You Knew.)

In some cases science grows increasingly complex; from other perspectives these complexities reduce down to a few basic principles. (See Deutsch: THE FABRIC OF REALITY.)

The writer is calling out the ballooning of identified cognitive biases:

Psychologists have posited hundreds of cognitive biases over the years, from hindsight bias to ingroup-outgroup bias to the fundamental attribution error. They’ve even proposed a bias bias: a tendency to overestimate the impact of cognitive biases on (other) people’s thinking. Inventing and cataloging biases seems to be one of psychologists’ favorite pastimes.

But a fascinating recent paper by Aileen Oeberst and Roland Imhoff argues that all our cognitive biases boil down to one of a handful of fundamental beliefs, coupled with just one “ultimate” bias. The fundamental beliefs include such ideas as “I make correct assessments” and “I am good.” And the ultimate bias is confirmation bias: the tendency to seek and favor information consistent with one’s preexisting views.

In this post, I’ll look at a range of common cognitive biases, and the six fundamental beliefs that give rise to them.

He gives examples of a chart of a chart of 50 Cognitive Biases [this is an image link] and even more complex Cognitive Bias Codes [another link to an image] from 2016.

Happenstance, this is how science works, over history. Many many examples of a phenomenon are identified and organized and classified, until someone comes along and sees the common threads, and proposes a unification theory. As Deutsch suggested, this is possible because we do actually live in a single universe governed by common universal laws.

The article cited claims “Six Fundamental Beliefs that Bias Our View of the World”

  1. My experience is a reasonable reference;
  2. I make correct assessments of the world;
  3. I am good;
  4. My group is a reasonable reference;
  5. My group (members) is (are) good;
  6. People’s attributes (not context) shape outcome.

I haven’t subscribed to the writer’s site (yet), and so for this list I’m relying on the screen capture from Jerry Coyne.

But again: the one bias to rule them all is the confirmation bias. It’s how people view the world as they want it to be. Not how it actually is.

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Political items from JMG:

Once again, without evidence, Trump declares victory.

JMG,18 Aug 2025: Trump: DC Is Now “The Safest City In The World”

OK, I’ll quote this one, from Truth Social.

“D.C. gave Fake Crime numbers in order to create a false illusion of safety. This is a very bad and dangerous thing to do, and they are under serious investigation for so doing! Until 4 days ago, Washington, D.C., was the most unsafe ‘city’ in the United States, and perhaps the World. Now, in just a short period of time, it is perhaps the safest, and getting better every single hour! People are flocking to D.C. again, and soon, the beautification will begin!”

So now, let’s see, what is he saying? The old crime numbers for DC — about crime having fallen in recent years — were fake, because Trump wanted this crisis of crime in the capital to be real. But now the crime numbers are OK, because he intervened! DC is safe!

Is anyone fooled by this?

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Even Fox News noticed.

JMG, 18 Aug 2025, via The Daily Beast: Fox Host Roasts Summit: “Not Much Accomplished”

Fox News host Howard Kurtz has delivered a brutal assessment of President Donald Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Media Buzz host said Sunday that “despite some upbeat talk” after Friday’s summit on ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, “it was clear not much was accomplished.”

“No ceasefire, no details, no questions from the press, just vague assurances that some progress was made without explaining what that was,” he continued.

JMG notes “The cult is demanding that Fox fire Kurtz. Because of course.”

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Another political item, deeper.

Salon, Amanda Marcotte, 18 Aug 2025: Why MAGA calls Trump “Daddy”, subtitled “Yes, it’s a weird sex thing. But it also reveals secret insecurities”

Now, it is easy to speculate why this would be. Conservatives are authoritarian minded; they revel in their Daddy God; they don’t want to think too much and want to rely on a powerful father-figure to tell them want to do. But let’s see what Marcotte says. Beginning:

The MAGA movement is determined to make politics as disgusting as possible, destroying democracy one juvenile 4chan meme at a time. It turns out that American fascism isn’t just wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross, but accuses women of having “Arby’s in your pants,” claims immigrants eat people’s pets and peddles conspiracy theories that politicians’ wives are secretly trans. In their mission to gross out normal people, Donald Trump‘s followers, much to his delight, like to call him “Daddy.”

It seemed to have really taken off in October, when Tucker Carlson gave his “Daddy’s home” speech at a Georgia campaign rally. He likened Trump to an abusive father, and compared America to his teenaged victim, all in an unsubtly sexualized way. “When dad gets home, you know what he says? ‘You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl, and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now,” Carlson said, as the crowd cheered wildly.

MAGA crowds loved imagining their leader as Incest Daddy, dishing out humiliating vengeance on “naughty” Americans, whom they imagined as liberals, feminists, queer people, racial minorities. At rallies, they would chant “Daddy’s home” as they fantasized about the horrors Trump would unleash on their perceived enemies.

With examples of people actually saying “Daddy Trump.” And what I would say, again, is a reversion to the most primitive state of human nature.

No doubt a lot of this is sublimated sexuality, which is often the case with a right-wing that outwardly embraces Christian right hostility to most forms of sexual expression. But it is the power dynamic that Carlson invoked — the large man versus the small girl — that really distills why Trump and the MAGA movement are so attracted to this “Daddy” idea. Fascism is a vehicle for weak, insecure people to feel powerful in the most cowardly way possible: By violating and abusing those they believe can’t fight back. It’s the attitude of the rapist and the child abuser, someone who pathetically congratulates himself for being “tough” because of his violence, but who fears taking on someone his own size. No wonder Trump is the perfect avatar for it.

And that’s enough about that, and for today.

Posted in Politics, Psychology | Leave a comment

Distracted by Politics, Again

Eventually I’ll get to more serious subjects. Though arguably politics is the most serious subject, because politics is about psychology and that involves how humans perceive and believe everything else. But there is a reality beneath politics (or should it be ‘beyond’), and even psychology, which is what I’m trying to get at.

  • Summaries and takes on the Trump/Putin meeting in Alaska. No one thinks it went well, except for Trump and MAGA and Fox News;
  • A piece about Trump’s speaking style: “many such cases”; “many people are saying this” and so on;
  • Gavin Newsom mocks Trump’s full-caps posts;
  • And a late Arvo Pärt piece: Symphony #4.
– – –

 

For the record. Trump went to Alaska this past weekend to meet Putin, to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Trump had two goals. He got neither. He came home and declared victory, the meeting a 10 on a scale of 10. As he does.

NY Times, news analysis by Peter Baker, 16 Aug 2025 (on today’s front page): Trump Bows to Putin’s Approach on Ukraine: No Cease-Fire, Deadlines or Sanctions

Subtitle: “The net effect of the Alaska summit was to give President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia a free pass to continue his war against his neighbor indefinitely without further penalty, pending talks on a broader peace deal.”

On the flight to Alaska, President Trump declared that if he did not secure a cease-fire in Ukraine during talks with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, “I’m not going to be happy,” and there would be “severe consequences.”

Just hours later, he got back on Air Force One and departed Alaska without the cease-fire he deemed so critical. Yet he had imposed no consequences, and had pronounced himself so happy with how things went with Mr. Putin that he said “the meeting was a 10.”

Even in the annals of Mr. Trump’s erratic presidency, the Anchorage meeting with Mr. Putin now stands out as a reversal of historic proportions. Mr. Trump abandoned the main goal he brought to his subarctic summit and, as he revealed on Saturday, would no longer even pursue an immediate cease-fire. Instead, he bowed to Mr. Putin’s preferred approach of negotiating a broader peace agreement requiring Ukraine to give up territory.

Naturally, Trump came home and called news reports that spelled this out “fake news.” And presumably his MAGA supporters, who pay attention only to Trump and not to any mainstream news media (Fox doesn’t count), believe him. This is why the rest of us call MAGA a cult.

Example:

JMG, 17 Aug 2025: Trump: “Fake News Distorts The Truth” About Summit

Quoting a Trump post (which I will not).

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Heather Cox Richardson’s puts things into perspective.

Letters from an American, Heather Cox Richardson: August 16, 2025

Yesterday, military personnel from the United States of America literally rolled out a red carpet for a dictator who invaded a sovereign country and is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes including the stealing of children. Apparently coached by his team, Trump stood to let Russia’s president Vladimir Putin walk toward him after Putin arrived at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, putting Trump in a dominant position, but he clapped as Putin walked toward him. The two men greeted each other warmly.

This summit between the president of the United States and the president of Russia came together fast, in the midst of the outcry in the U.S. over Trump’s inclusion in the Epstein files and the administration’s refusal to release those files.

And the end.

The two and a half hour working lunch that was scheduled did not take place. Both men left Alaska within an hour.

Speaking with European leaders in a phone call from Air Force One on his way home from the summit, Trump said that Putin rejected the idea of a ceasefire and insisted that Ukraine cede territory to Russia. He also suggested that a coalition of the willing, including the U.S., would be required to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. But within hours, Trump had dropped his demand for a ceasefire and instead echoed Putin’s position that negotiations for a peace agreement should begin without one.

In an interview with Fox News Channel personality Sean Hannity after the meeting, Trump said he would not impose further sanctions on Russia because the meeting with Putin had gone “very well.” “Because of what happened today, I think I don’t have to think about that now,” Trump told Hannity. “I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something, but we don’t have to think about that right now.”

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This is apropos.

NY Times, guest essay by Adam Aleksic (an American linguist), 17 Aug 2025: The Insidious Creep of Trump’s Speaking Style

“Many such cases.” “Many people are saying this.”

You may recognize these phrases as “Trumpisms” — linguistic coinages of President Trump — but they’ve also become ingrained in our collective vocabulary. Since they became popular as memes during his first presidential campaign, we have begun using them, first sardonically, and then out of habit.

(Of course, there never are “many cases” or “many people” who are saying this or that, that Trump or anyone else can provide. He’s a con artist.)

Mr. Trump’s impact reaches well beyond just two phrases. Since he helped popularize “sad!” as an interjection, I regularly hear people use it that way as well; something similar is in effect with “frankly,” “fake news” and the discourse marker “believe me” at the end of a sentence. All of these terms were buoyed by Mr. Trump’s usage, turned into ironic callbacks (including by his supporters), and then incorporated into everyday speech. In fact, Mr. Trump may have a greater impact on the English language than any president in the history of the United States, maybe ever.

Wait for it–

That last sentence borrowed the grammatical structure of a 2016 meme where Mr. Trump described NAFTA as “the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals, maybe ever.” Since then, the joke has become a kind of syntactic skeleton called a phrasal template: a grammatical place holder with empty slots to fill. Now any concept can be loaded into the template of “[superlative] X in/on the Y in the history of Z, maybe ever” — making it easier to apply to new scenarios and outlive the original meme.

My comment: real people do not talk this way. Intelligent people do not talk this way. The essay concludes:

Mr. Trump’s ideas begin as ridiculous and are easily parodied on the internet — at this point, they’re already affecting our head space. When those parodies become a subconscious part of language, their overt power is diluted but the underlying idea remains there, continuing to subtly represent his presence.

The fact that we’re talking like Donald Trump could mean that we’re starting to think like him as well.

Others? Offhand, “Like nothing ever seen before.” But wait — there’s a Wikipedia page about it! Rhetoric of Donald Trump.

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I should note that over the past week California governor Gavin Newsom has been mocking Trump’s tweets by posting outrageous, full-caps, tweets of his own. The right complains, but not too much… Example at Axios: Newsom mocks Trump’s social media in a flurry of redistricting posts. I’ll link this one for now.

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This piece, from 2008, is very beautiful. In a subdued, almost minimalist way.

It was commissioned for performance in Los Angeles.

Posted in Music, Politics, Psychology | Leave a comment

AI Is Telling People What They Want to Hear?

  • Tom Tomorrow on “defunding the police”;
  • The unreliability of AI, with an example of John Scalzi;
  • An essay about how the future will be mundane;
  • Several links on Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska;
  • Slate’s handy summary of people in the news this week (Antoni, Putin, Big Balls, et al.).
– – –

 

Curiously, given my mention two days ago of what “defunding the police” actually means, this 11-year-old cartoon by Tom Tomorrow popped up in my Facebook feed today. I’ll “quote” just the first two panels; the rest is at the link. Again, this is from 2014.

The Nib, Tom Tomorrow, 14 Aug 2014: Officer Friendly, subtitled “He’s just a good guy with a gun”

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More about the unreliability of AI. Noted because it concerns SF author John Scalzi.

The Atlantic, Yair Rosenberg, 15 Aug 2025: Don’t Believe What AI Told You I Said, subtitled “The chatbots are lying about me.”

The article begins:

John Scalzi is a voluble man. He is the author of several New York Times best sellers and has been nominated for nearly every major award that the science-fiction industry has to offer—some of which he’s won multiple times. Over the course of his career, he has written millions of words, filling dozens of books and 27 years’ worth of posts on his personal blog. All of this is to say that if one wants to cite Scalzi, there is no shortage of material. But this month, the author noticed something odd: He was being quoted as saying things he’d never said.

“The universe is a joke,” reads a meme featuring his face. “A bad one.” The lines are credited to Scalzi and were posted, atop different pictures of him, to two Facebook communities boasting almost 1 million collective members. But Scalzi never wrote or said those words. He also never posed for the pictures that appeared with them online. The quote and the images that accompanied them were all “pretty clearly” AI generated, Scalzi wrote on his blog. “The whole vibe was off,” Scalzi told me. Although the material bore a superficial similarity to something he might have said—“it’s talking about the universe, it’s vaguely philosophical, I’m a science-fiction writer”—it was not something he agreed with. “I know what I sound like; I live with me all the time,” he noted.

The article goes on with the writer’s own experiences.

Scalzi posts about it here:

Whatever: Fix Your Hearts or Die, John Scalzi, 15 Aug 2025: Interviewed in The Atlantic about “AI” Slop

The post is short so I’ll quote in full:

Earlier this month I wrote about someone using an AI-generated quote and attributing it to me (along with an AI-generated picture of me which looked nothing like me), and I was more than a little annoyed by it. Now my experience and the experience of others who have had this happen, is the subject of an article in The Atlantic, titled “Don’t Believe What AI Told You I Said,” by Yair Rosenberg. I can attest that, indeed, it’s me being directly quoted in the piece, so you have that much assurance. And yes, this is a problem that will not go away, and is indeed likely to grow over time. Be vigilant about who and what you quote, folks.

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AI seems to be telling people what they want to hear, not providing any kind of “truth,” because how is AI supposed to know what’s true? I raised this issue a few days ago. If AI reads all the texts of humanity, how is it to decide what is true? I suggested that it would look for internal consistency. But it’s not doing that.

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Here again I’m linking a piece that I’ve not yet read, because I’m curious about the topic and want to see where the writer goes with it, and account for it. I’m reading it as I create this post.

NY Times, guest essay by Nick Foster, 16 Aug 2025: The Future Will Be Mundane

Interest in “what will the future be like” has nearly doubled worldwide since 2020, according to Google Trends, and in a very short space of time, our lives have become saturated with countless tales of what lies ahead.

Well, really? Hasn’t science fiction, all by itself, been evidence of peoples’ interest in the future, for the past century?

The key, yet again, is human psychology. From part way through:

Whether you look at the world from a technological, political, scientific or societal perspective, many aspects of life today are radically different from the lives our grandparents knew. But it doesn’t really feel like that, does it? These things seem ordinary and normal to us. We’ve absorbed them into our lives, and they feel like regular parts of 2025. In a word, they feel mundane.

Humans are incredibly adaptable. We’ve proved to be very capable of adjusting our behavior and weaving whatever comes our way into the ongoing fabric of everyday life. Throughout my career I’ve found that thinking about the future as an ordinary, lived experience — rather than a utopian fantasy or dystopian horror — always helps people embrace it, make sense of it and engage in more detailed conversations about it.

My reaction: well *of course* it will be mundane, mainly because the big changes more slowly than we realize, and out of view of most people living their mundane daily lives. There’s the aspect of short-term vs long-term thinking here; most people are capable only of the former.

When considering the future, we should always make space for grand, ambitious plans and alert people to potential collapses or disasters, but the work doesn’t end there. While tales of radical change might fill us with excitement or horror, they can also feel incredibly abstract. If we don’t start thinking about the future as an extension of the present — and if we don’t develop a dogged focus on the implications of change on the mundane rhythms of everyday life — the future will continue to feel distant, intangible and somehow “other,” and this weakness may grow into a critical failure of our generation.

Of course, yet again, science fiction is where the best writers try to blend this awareness of change with the practical fact that most people live mundane lives.

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Today I’m demoting political events. What happened this weekend is that Trump met Putin in Alaska (though a couple times Trump said “Russia”) to negotiate the future of Ukraine.

It was not a victory for Trump, except for the people at Fox News.

The Atlantic, Jonathan Lemire, 15 Aug 2025: Well, What Did You Think Would Happen?, subtitled “Trump rolled out the red carpet for Putin but failed to make a deal.”

I’ll just list some other headlines.

JMG, 16 Aug 2025 (from Guardian): Russian State Media “Jubilant” After Alaska Summit

JMG, 16 Aug 2025: Trump: I’d Rate The Summit As A 10, Putin Told Me The 2020 Election Was Rigged And I Had Won By “So Much”

(He’ll believe anything)

NY Times, 15 Aug, updated 26 Aug 2025: Trump Returns to Washington After Putin Talks Yield No Ukraine Deal

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Finally for today: Slate’s handy summary of people in the news this week.

Slate, Ben Mathis-Lilley, 16 Aug 2025: Fan of Nazi Ships Elevated to Key Economic Role, subtitled “This guy really does not inspire confidence!”

This week, a man named “Big Balls” triggered a military invasion, the government explained somewhat unpersuasively why it has decided not to cure cancer, and Chuck Schumer racked up another big-time Chuck Schumer dub. (Chuck Schumer stays winning!) But first, let’s talk about the random guy from C-list right-wing media who looks like a member of Korn and has been assigned to ruin the world economy.

E.J. Antoni; Vladimir Putin; Big Balls; Chuck Schumer; Jay Bhattacharya; Ken Paxton; Laura Loomer.

Antoni is the one who has a big painting of the Nazi warship Bismarck on the wall behind his photo-ops. (See here.) (Back in my early days of buying paperbacks, I bought the Bantam Pathfinder edition of C.S. Forester’s SINK THE BISMARCK, in the edition shown here [link likely to expire].)

Posted in authoritarianism, Politics, Technology | Leave a comment

The Fringe Is Becoming Mainstream

  • Trump threatens to attack Mexico, ho hum;
  • South Koreans think electric fans are deadly;
  • A GOP rep claims evidence of “interdimensional beings”;
  • Hegseth’s pastor claims “gay marriage doesn’t exist” because he doesn’t like it;
  • Lance Wallnau thinks his god wants him to impose his religion on all of society;
  • With brief thoughts about what the world would be like if an intercessory god actually existed;
  • Pentagon uses AI pics to claim recruitment success — of women;
  • How Donald Trump makes America worse than tacky.
– – –

Sure, if you look, you can find a new alarming thing every day.

The New Republic, 15 Aug 2025: Trump Is Ready to Invade U.S. Ally if It Doesn’t Cave to His Demands, subtitled “Donald Trump has drawn up attack plans for Mexico.”

The White House has authorized the Pentagon to use military force against Latin American drug cartels—but the sweeping directive also appears to violate the sovereignty of America’s southern neighbor.

Because Trump is a bully and would-be dictator and thinks he can tell anyone anywhere in the world what to do, and if they don’t, he’ll tariff them.

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But let’s pick up on some fringier items from recent days. First, other countries have their own wacky health beliefs. I’ve actually heard about this one before.

Boing Boing, 14 Aug 2025: South Korea’s most peculiar health myth: the deadly electric fan

For decades, many South Koreans have believed that sleeping in a closed room with an electric fan running can kill you. This superstition has done more than spark late-night conversations—it has shaped the way manufacturers design fans and how consumers shop for them.

The link is to Wikipedia, which gives some background — but no rationale for what is merely a superstition. Thus today:

Although no law requires timers on fans, almost every model sold in South Korea has one. Retailers say consumers simply expect the feature, and authorities still recommend setting a timer to prevent overheating or fire risk during hot summers. Finding a timer-free fan in Korea today is nearly impossible—not because of regulation, but because the belief endures.

This is how culture works. Ideas and “beliefs” are shared precisely to cement a cultural bond against “others” who don’t share those beliefs. As long as those beliefs don’t cause any actual harm, they can endure indefinitely.

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Even something like this.

JMG, 14 Aug 2025 (from The Hill): GOP Rep: I’ve Seen Proof Of “Interdimensional Beings”

Proof? Then I’m sure she does not understand what the word means. Quoting The Hill:

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said during a Wednesday podcast episode with Joe Rogan that lawmakers have seen evidence of “interdimensional beings.”

“I think that they can actually operate through the time spaces that we currently have,” Luna said during the podcast. “That’s not something that I came up with on my own. That’s based on stuff that we’ve seen. That’s based on information that we’ve been told,” she added.

She claims “evidence,” which is not proof. And “stuff what we’ve seen.” And “information that we’ve been told.” It’s nonsense.

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How about these two?

JMG, 15 Aug 2025: Hegseth’s Pastor: “Gay Marriage Doesn’t Exist”

Gay marriage does not exist in the world. It can’t, any more than a square triangle can exist. God created marriage.

Because Bible. That’s why I think people like this are dim. He’s besotted by what he thinks his “God” wants, when really it’s all about survival strategies of early humans for survival, as captured in the most ancient holy book we happen to have around. Which is an distillation of base human nature, not a literal account of history.

Anyway, gay marriage *does* exist in the world. People have decided it does. People who are not hung up on the scruples of the goat herders who told the stories of survival strategies that eventually became the Bible.

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We’ve heard about this guy, and this movement, before.

Right Wing Watch, Kyle Mantyla, 14 Aug 2025: Lance Wallnau Says God Is Using Trump To Give Right-Wing Christians Control Over The Seven Mountains

Right-wing evangelist Lance Wallnau is a self-proclaimed Christian nationalist and unabashed Trump cultist who has, for years, been one of the leading purveyors of Seven Mountains Dominionism, a radical theology that advocates having right-wing Christians control all aspects of society.

Followers of Seven Mountains theology believe that they are to “do whatever is necessary” to take control of the seven main “mountains” that shape our culture—education, government, media, business, arts and entertainment, family, and religion—in order to implement the will of God throughout the nation and the world.

And… I’m not going to read any more than that.

Again, Christians like this guy are besotted with ancient stories that represent and excuse the survival strategies of ancient humanity, especially at the time herding was giving way to agriculture. (See my partial review of this book.) And think those strategies should apply today.

Look, even if there was a god who created the world an intervened in human affairs and was omnipotent, why would his presence be not *much more obvious*? It’s *easy* to imagine how the world might work if there were an intercessory God who altered events in full view. That never happens. Why would his will need to work its way through morons like Donald Trump? The answer: it’s because religious claims are no more than chance. There’s no there there.

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I’m not sure I understand this piece. I thought MAGA doesn’t want women in the military. Anyway, they’re just lying again, via AI.

JMG, 15 Aug 2025 (from CNN): Pentagon Uses AI Pics To Claim Recruitment Success

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One more for this evening.

LA Times, Jackie Calmes, 14 Aug 2025: Donald Trump makes America worse than tacky

For President Trump, it’s all about appearances.

He’s busy with so many makeovers: The Versailles-ification of the Oval Office, which seems to sprout more gold leaf and ornamentation every time Trump assembles the media there. The paving of the Rose Garden, now Mar-a-Lago Patio North, crowded with white tables and yellow umbrellas just as at his Florida retreat. The estimated billion-dollar conversion of a Qatari luxury jet built for a king, more in keeping with Trump’s tastes than the “less impressive” Air Force One. Even a new golf cart, the six-figure armored Golf Force One. And, assuming Trump gets his way, as he mostly does, he’ll break ground soon on a $200-million, 90,000-square-foot ballroom, a veritable Hall of Mirrors nearly doubling the footprint of the White House.

The president has $257 million from ever-compliant Republicans in Congress to transform the nearby Kennedy Center into the “Trump/Kennedy Center,” as Trump immodestly suggested on Tuesday. (Meanwhile, the purported populist president has canceled grants to local arts groups across America and seeks to eliminate the National Endowment for the Arts, which underwrites cultural events in every state.) Even the medallions for the annual Kennedy Center Honors winners are getting a makeover — from Tiffany & Co., natch. Trump, having made himself the Kennedy Center chair after a first term in which he skipped the honors shows by popular demand, was there on Wednesday to announce the 2025 honorees.

And:

Let’s pause here to consider just how Fox News and MAGA World would react if the president overseeing all this extravagance were named Biden, Obama or Clinton.

And after many more details and examples, ending:

Yes, he’s a busy man. But you know what Trump hasn’t done? Release the Epstein files. Wouldn’t be good for appearances.

And that’s as much as we can do tonight.

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Why Totalitarians Prefer Crackpots and Fools, as We Are Seeing Under Trump

  • Lesson for today, from Paul Krugman, from Hannah Arendt: “Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.”
  • With examples of E.J. Antoni, and Stephen Miller;
  • Facts: crime is down. NYT Editorial Board explains why, with my comments about “defunding the police” actually means.
– – –

Beginning with two from Paul Krugman.

Paul Krugman, 13 Aug 2025: Hackification, subtitled “Arendt’s Law comes for economic data”

Hannah Arendt was a writer and political theorist famous for works on totalitarianism. She’s noted for the phrase “the banality of evil.”

Krugman begins:

On Monday I wrote about Donald Trump’s disastrous press conference touting the economy along with Stephen Moore, a former chief economist at the Heritage Foundation. As I noted, Moore is a dishonest partisan hack, which is only to be expected, but also bizarrely incompetent, incapable of ever getting his facts right. To explain the phenomenon, I invoked Hannah Arendt:

Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.

Let me call this Arendt’s Law: Totalitarian and wannabe totalitarian regimes only hire incompetent hacks.

The balance of the post discusses E.J. Antoni, whom Trump has nominated to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics, to replace for former head, whom he fired because he didn’t like the job numbers she reported a week ago. One of the first things Antoni has said since the nomination is

that the BLS should stop issuing monthly jobs reports until the “problems” at the agency are fixed.

I guess that would be one way to let Trump continue claiming that the economy is booming — just stop publishing the data showing that it isn’t.

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Then today. Most people *always* think the economy is bad. It’s negativity bias — we’re tuned to be more aware of bad news than good. And most people aren’t persuaded by statistics.

Paul Krugman, 14 Aug 2025: MAGA’s Feelings Don’t Care About Your Facts, subtitled “Reality is what Trump says it is”

Just under two weeks ago the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a sharp slowdown in job growth — consistent with independent surveys that also show a slowing economy. Donald Trump responded by firing the Bureau’s head and wants to replace her with an unqualified right-wing hack — let’s be honest, OK? — whose big idea for dealing with troubling job numbers is to stop releasing them.

This week Trump seized control of the Washington DC police force and sent in the National Guard to deal with what he claims is a runaway crime wave, even though crime in the District has been falling rapidly.

What these two stories have in common is this: MAGA’s feelings don’t care about your facts. And the rejection of data Trump doesn’t like will surely extend to many areas beyond jobs and crime.

And then:

About jobs: E.J. Antoni, Trump’s pick for BLS Commissioner, has actually said that we should define a recession not on the basis of things like employment data or GDP but by how people “feel.” Now, that criterion wouldn’t serve him or his master very well if we look at surveys of public opinion. The American people appear to feel really bad about the economy.

Indicating the chart shown above.

(Aside: I recall the phrase “on account of the economy,” from a Springsteen song, as discussed here, by writers who also mention that Springsteen is a “flaming liberal.”)

Given that most people always think the economy is bad, how would Trump convince them that he’s improved it? Why, by simply telling them he has. Because he doesn’t care about actual data. He quotes Stephen Miller:

Crime stats in big blue cities are fake. The real rates of crime, chaos & dysfunction are orders of magnitude higher.

Everyone who lives in these areas knows this. …

No, we don’t; no, they aren’t; Miller is delusional or a liar, just like Trump is. Krugman reacts:

May I say that to anyone who pays the slightest amount of attention to New York politics, the idea that the NYPD is rigging the crime data to make liberal mayors look good is simply hilarious.

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Trump makes the same nonsensical claim, without evidence.

JMG, 14 Aug 2025: Trump: DC’s Crime Rate Is Ten Times What Is Reported

Which is more likely? That thousands of police officers and statisticians are manipulating the data, or that Trump, the inveterate liar, asserts whatever it is he wishes to be true?

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But, as I’ve suggested, conservative fantasies eventually hit reality. Videos help.

Daily Kos, 13 Aug 2025: Trump’s delusional DC crime fantasy is falling apart

Video of armed federal officers meandering around Washington, D.C., on Tuesday night is once again refuting President Donald Trump’s lie that the nation’s capital is facing a surge of violent crime.

The viral video, posted online by Freedom News TV, shows armed agents of the FBI and Drug Enforcement Agency, dressed in uniform, walking around the Georgetown area of the city. They walk down mostly empty streets and sidewalks, doing nothing. They walk past quiet patrons eating at a sidewalk cafe. Onlookers gawk at them in surprise.

“Not much going on here, so maybe they’re practicing,” a civilian tells the camera crew.

The article includes the video.

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There is a real reality, and it can be measured and counted. Not perfectly, perhaps, but in ways that are more effective and productive than relying on “feelings,” or reliance on myths. That’s the history of humanity over the past few hundred years.

NY Times, Editorial Board, 14 Aug 2025: Crime Keeps Falling. Here’s Why. [gift link]

America is in the midst of a historic decline in crime. In 2023, murders fell 10 percent, which was then the largest annual drop since reliable records began in 1960. Last year, the country very likely set another record, with a 15 percent drop. This year, murders are on track to set yet another record, having fallen about 20 percent in major cities. Shootings, robberies and thefts have also plummeted.

These declines have erased the spike in crime that occurred during and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, the murder rate in 2025 could end up being lower than it has been at any other point in at least 65 years. In terms of violent crime, modern America may be safer than it has been in decades, based on data collected by the crime analyst Jeff Asher.

Pointing to the chart displayed above.

Crime is down in Washington, D.C., too, contrary to President Trump’s claims this week that it is a hotbed of violence. Although the city’s murder rate remains far too high, it is now comparable to what it was before the pandemic.

The editors go on with two lessons.

The first lesson is the importance of public trust and stability.

The pandemic; George Floyd’s murder; a loosening of behavioral norms.

During the pandemic, reckless driving, deaths from car crashes and road rage incidents increased. Alcohol and drug deaths also rose. Even little things, like people using phones in movie theaters, seemed to worsen even after Covid receded. It was as if many Americans took a so-called moral holiday.

But in the aftermath, people are returning to normal; thus crime has fallen.

The second lesson involves the importance of law enforcement.

During the 2020 protests, many progressives embraced calls to “defund the police,” and some prominent Democrats — including then-Senator Kamala Harris of California, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and then-Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles — supported the defund movement. But police funding did not decline much, if at all, in most cities.

Now, perhaps I am misunderstanding this after all these years, but the “defund the police” movement wasn’t driven by any idea of letting crime run rampant — who would want that? — but by the notion that police departments were given so much money — because conservatives always want to the give the military and police more money, since they are frightened — that police departments were buying up used military equipment, tanks and whatnot, and turning small and large cities into occupied war zones. There was no reason local police should need military equipment. And that’s why some wanted police budgets cut. Defunded.

Moving on, the piece makes one more point.

It is worth mentioning one factor that has played little role in the recent crime decline, contrary to claims from Mr. Trump. He has suggested that the crime spike was the fault of illegal immigration during the Biden administration and that the reversal stems from his border crackdown. That appears to be simply false. Immigrants, including those who entered the country illegally, commit crimes at lower rates than native-born Americans (in part because of the potential consequences, including deportation).

Again, conservatives don’t believe statistics, but the statistics indicate that immigrants, whether legal or illegal, commit fewer crimes than native-born Americans, precisely for that reason: they’re afraid that if they commit a crime, they’ll be caught, and deported. Once immigrants make their way here, most are on their best behavior.

Much more in this very intelligent editorial. I’ll make it a gift link.

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There will always be *some* crime, and this will alarm conservatives, who are easily panicked, and who always seem to vote for draconian measures in order to control it.

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