Stamp Collecting

In the year or two that I collected stamps, about age 12 and 13, inspired by my Great Aunt Maude when we’d moved to Illinois, I discovered companies that would do approval services similar to those that book distributors did for university libraries. The stamp service I remember was called Jamestown Stamp Company, http://stamp-co.com/. Once a month or so they would send a large envelope full of a couple dozen little glassine envelopes (like these), each with four or six or eight stamps from a particular country, or on a particular theme. You kept which ones you wanted, and mailed the others back along with payment for those you kept. But you could also buy any particular stamp(s) you wanted, by ordering them specifically. There was at the time a huge volume called the Scott Stamp Catalogue, the size of an unabridged dictionary, that listed every stamp ever issued by every country ever. (I bought one of those, for some $20 at the time, when paperbacks cost $.75.) Scott is still around; it’s now a website, https://www.scottonline.com/.

At some point after a year or two of collecting stamps, it struck me how pointless it was. It’s not like you grew a collection of stamps that happened to come in the mail. You could order anything and just have it. So I stopped.

Yet there were two benefits from collecting stamps for that while. First, you learn world geography; you are offered stamps from various remote and bizarre countries around the globe, and you learn where they are. (This was analogous to learning US geography from having a jigsaw puzzle where each state was a separate piece, as I had at maybe age 7.) Second was you got a flavor for each nation’s character through the kinds of stamps they issued, the designs and subject matters. The US then, and still, issues ordinary little square stamps in standard denominations for routine use. But three or four times a month, it would issue special “commemorative” stamps in a horizontal rectangular shape, and these would commemorate some particular historical event, or famous artist, or whatever, many of these in full color. Many of these were sets of 4 or 6 stamps on a theme, e.g. four different wildflowers.

In contrast were especially the Soviet Union stamps, many more of them per month or year, mostly monotone, and often issued in sets, and generally glorifying Soviet leaders and achievements. Wikipedia has this page, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postage_stamps_of_the_Soviet_Union, but … I still have my old stamp albums! So perhaps I’ll snap a photo of the ones I have.

Also, there were small countries, island nations and Arab Emirates nations, that issued so many different stamps given their tiny populations that you got the impression they were deliberately appealing to the stamp collecting market in bigger nations. These were often very colorful, on nature subjects, and sometimes in odd shapes, e.g. triangular. I have some of these too.

In recent years even countries like the US and UK have trended this way, issuing sets of commemorative stamps, 4 or 6 or 8 in each set all on a theme, on every conceivable subject…. For example, Star Trek stamps. You would never have seen such things in the ‘60s or ‘70s.

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Link and Comments: Jared Diamond on Why Nations Fail Or Succeed When Facing A Crisis

Let’s do a relatively academic item today, to avoid the day to day political issues. Though of course it’s not irrelevant to those.

Noemag: Jared Diamond: Why Nations Fail Or Succeed When Facing A Crisis

Jared Diamond is, of course, the author of Guns, Germs, and Steel (1997), a big picture view of human history that identifies the victors of history not to racial superiority, but to circumstances of geography and other factors. (It’s an early example of the “big history” books like Harari’s Sapiens, that view history as about broad intellectual and circumstantial trends, not about names and dates and battles.) And most recently, Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis (2019).

Nathan Gardels: In assessing how nations manage crises and successfully negotiate turning points — or don’t — you pass their experience through several filters. Some key filters you use are realistic self-appraisal, selective adoption of best practices from elsewhere, a capacity to learn from others while still preserving core values and flexibility that allows for social and political compromise.

How do you see the way various nations addressed the coronavirus pandemic through this lens?

Jared Diamond: Nations and entities doing well by the criteria of those outcome predictors include Singapore and Taiwan. Doing poorly initially were the government of Italy and now, worst of all, the federal government of the U.S.

Because Americans think themselves exceptional, and ignore the experience and lessons learned by other countries. (Here’s a current example: NYT, When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well. Will any Americans pay attention to this? No. Our current politicians, driven by their base, even ignore the lesson of pandemic response from 1918: The Mask Slackers of 1918 (subtitled “As the influenza pandemic swept across the United States in 1918 and 1919, masks took a role in political and cultural wars.”)

Long interview, with discussion of Germany and Japan, climate change, and much else.

Gardels: But the lesson for the U.S. these days, and for other divided democracies, is that peril beckons when the spirit of compromise evaporates. Compromise and the ability to arrive at a governing consensus fails when the civic discourse is degraded and there’s no trust in impartial institutions. The whole thing can collapse.

Diamond: I see the possibility of that in the U.S. today. It is a process of erosion that at some moment reaches a point of no return. If democracy ends in the U.S., it’s not going to be the way it ended in Chile with a military coup. It will end through a slow erosion, a continuation of trends we see now: restrictions on the ability of people to register to vote, decreasing voter turnout, executive interference with the judiciary, struggles between the executive and the Congress. I don’t take it for granted that democracy in the U.S. is going to overcome all obstacles. I see a serious risk.

Why?

So we must ask, why the breakdown? My best analysis all these years later is that we had then already entered a period of sharp decline in face-to-face communication in the U.S. — more than in any other country and before any other country. This was a result both of the culture of mobility — people moving far from their original communities, often to the other end of this large country — as well as growing inequality resulting from de-industrialization in the Rust Belt and the rise of the global economy that had the impact of segregating communities along class and educational lines.

The rise of the Internet? I have a book by Ezra Klein, Why We’re Polarized, that I will read soon.

The site Noema, that I’d not encountered before, is a magazine exploring the transformations sweeping our world, and is published by the Berggruen Institute, which happens to be headquartered in the Bradbury Building in downtown LA (the building made famous by the 1982 film Blade Runner).

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Links and Comments: About Thinking; About Research; About Orientations

First, from yesterday’s New York Times Science section: How to Think Like an Epidemiologist. Subtitle: “Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you.”

As Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard, noted on Twitter, Bayesian reasoning comes awfully close to his working definition of rationality. “As we learn more, our beliefs should change,” Dr. Lipsitch said in an interview. “One extreme is to decide what you think and be impervious to new information. Another extreme is to over-privilege the last thing you learned. In rough terms, Bayesian reasoning is a principled way to integrate what you previously thought with what you have learned and come to a conclusion that incorporates them both, giving them appropriate weights.”

(The first extreme is that of the religious fundamentalist; the second extreme is what psychologists call the availability heuristic.)

A few posts ago I discussed how risk analysis is done, and is done in great detail within industries that depend on bringing a project in, as close to possible, on time and to budget. (As opposed to going with your gut.) Similarly, there is a rigorous, if idealistic, process for how a scientist, or anyone else, updates their (always) provisional conclusions as new evidence comes in. It’s called Bayesian analysis (Wikipedia calls it Bayesian inference), and it boils down to the couple equations in the linked NYT article, but can be described with examples to seem simple and intuitive. It’s analogous to how a detective changes his likely suspect as new evidence is discovered.

Sadly, this is not only not understood by many, but willfully misunderstood by those who dislike scientific conclusions and want to find reasons to reject them. Their take is that if a scientist says one thing today and another thing in a month, it’s because they can’t be trusted and science itself is discredited. (Peter Navarro’s attempted take-down of Dr. Fauci was like this.) This attitude is prevalent, it seems, among the religious faithful, for whom all questions have definitive answers that harbor no revision. The real world isn’t like that. Any more than when a detective shows up on scene of a crime, he is expected to be completely correct at once, before further evidence is gathered.

An example just from today: a couple lines of evidence about the age of the universe don’t exactly line up. And so as Paul Fidalgo puts it (scroll down):

There is some slight disagreement among scientists about the age of the Universe, which means of course that science is wrong and God made everything like a few days ago.

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Second: Forbes: You Must Not ‘Do Your Own Research’ When It Comes To Science.

The writer, Ethan Siegel, is a Ph.D. astrophysicist.

“Research both sides and make up your own mind.” It’s simple, straightforward, common sense advice. And when it comes to issues like vaccinations, climate change, and the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, it can be dangerous, destructive, and even deadly. The techniques that most of us use to navigate most of our decisions in life — gathering information, evaluating it based on what we know, and choosing a course of action — can lead to spectacular failures when it comes to a scientific matter.

The reason is simple: most of us, even those of us who are scientists ourselves, lack the relevant scientific expertise needed to adequately evaluate that research on our own. In our own fields, we are aware of the full suite of data, of how those puzzle pieces fit together, and what the frontiers of our knowledge is. When laypersons espouse opinions on those matters, it’s immediately clear to us where the gaps in their understanding are and where they’ve misled themselves in their reasoning. When they take up the arguments of a contrarian scientist, we recognize what they’re overlooking, misinterpreting, or omitting. Unless we start valuing the actual expertise that legitimate experts have spent lifetimes developing, “doing our own research” could lead to immeasurable, unnecessary suffering.

With this description of what many people actually do when they say they’re “doing research”:

There’s an old saying that I’ve grown quite fond of recently: you can’t reason someone out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into. When most of us “research” an issue, what we are actually doing is:

• formulating an initial opinion the first time we hear about something,
• evaluating everything we encounter after that through that lens of our gut instinct,
• finding reasons to think positively about the portions of the narrative that support or justify our initial opinion,
• and finding reasons to discount or otherwise dismiss the portions that detract from it.

Of course, that’s not what we think we’re doing. We think of ourselves as the heroes of our stories: cutting through misinformation and digging up the real truth on the matter. We think that, just by applying our brainpower and our critical reasoning skills, we can discern whose expert opinions are trustworthy and responsible. We think that we can see through who’s a charlatan and a fraud, and we can tell what’s safe and effective from what’s dangerous and ineffective.

Except, for almost all of us, we can’t. Even those of us with excellent critical thinking skills and lots of experience trying to dig up the truth behind a variety of claims are lacking one important asset: the scientific expertise necessary to understand any finds or claims in the context of the full state of knowledge of your field. It’s part of why scientific consensus is so remarkably valuable: it only exists when the overwhelming majority of qualified professionals all hold the same consistent professional opinion. It truly is one of the most important and valuable types of expertise that humanity has ever developed.

My Facebook friend who linked this article prefaced by saying, “For too many people, _research_ means ‘google stuff until you’re bored or emotionally satisfied’. I think we’re going to have to make up a new word to use when we’re talking about actual research.”

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Finally, a bit of fun. A minute-and-a-half YouTube video that asks, in Star Trek, why when two starships approach each other, they are always level to each other? My answer: it’s intuitive physics at work; it’s naive mapping of the human experience of water-going ships that move two-dimensionally, to space-going ships that can move three-dimensionally. The video’s answer is cute, but incomplete; the matter of people beaming down from a starship to a planet is still an issue.

SF writers have occasionally dealt with a related issue, e.g., if you could time travel to the past or future, how would you catch up to where the Earth will be or was? Wouldn’t it move out from underneath you? Some of these writers develop workarounds or rationales; most just ignore the issue.

(Also, as I recall from last seeing the film decades ago, the second Star Trek film, The Wrath of Khan, made a plot point of having the Enterprise approach the enemy ship from below, rather than straight-on. And thought it was being very clever to think of this ploy.)

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Links and Comments: Reputable News Sources; Conservative Animus toward Obama

Several interesting links from the past couple days, but let’s start with the most general, and pertinent.

Current Affairs: The Truth Is Paywalled But The Lies Are Free.

This makes the apt point that responsible journalism on the web is often paywalled. There are exceptions like CNN, supported by its cable network, but others, like those listed in the article, require subscriptions to see more than three or four articles a month on their websites. Where as certain…. other sites… presumably have hidden motivations, or some other way to make money (selling ads that appeal to the people who would read such sites, as Facebook does), and so provide their content for free. Here’s the opening of this (long) article, where I’ve captured all its links in the second paragraph.

Paywalls are justified, even though they are annoying. It costs money to produce good writing, to run a website, to license photographs. A lot of money, if you want quality. Asking people for a fee to access content is therefore very reasonable. You don’t expect to get a print subscription  to the newspaper gratis, why would a website be different? I try not to grumble about having to pay for online content, because I run a magazine and I know how difficult it is to pay writers what they deserve.

But let us also notice something: the New York Times, the New Yorker, the Washington Post, the New Republic, New York, Harper’s, the New York Review of Books, the Financial Times, and the London Times all have paywalls. Breitbart, Fox News, the Daily Wire, the Federalist, the Washington Examiner, InfoWars: free! You want “Portland Protesters Burn Bibles, American Flags In The Streets,” “The Moral Case Against Mask Mandates And Other COVID Restrictions,” or an article suggesting the National Institutes of Health has admitted 5G phones cause coronavirus—they’re yours. You want the detailed Times reports on neo-Nazis infiltrating German institutions, the reasons contact tracing is failing in U.S. states, or the Trump administration’s undercutting of the USPS’s effectiveness—well, if you’ve clicked around the website a bit you’ll run straight into the paywall. This doesn’t mean the paywall shouldn’t be there. But it does mean that it costs time and money to access a lot of true and important information, while a lot of bullshit is completely free.

This recalls a heuristic I’ve seen before: pay more attention to news sources that charge money for their content, than those who provide it for free, since the latter presumably have some hidden motivation for giving you free content. Another not-quite-equivalent way of saying this: trust news sources that existed before the internet, more than all the opportunistic sites that take advantage of their ability to provide “free” content. And another apt analogy: pay as much attention to what you put into your brain, as what you put into your body; avoid junk food, and junk news. Facebook posts are mostly junk news.

(Coincidentally, an analogous effect has been seen in the most popular science fiction award, the Hugos, over the past decade with the rise of free fiction websites like Lightspeed, Clarkesworld, and Uncanny; nominees in short fiction categories for many years now have been dominated by stories from those sites, rather than the traditional print magazines, which of course require payment to buy, like Analog, Asimov’s, and F&SF. The result as been a degradation of the awards to the point of meaninglessness, as debated in an online forum I see every day. The best stories of any year are rather to be identified by the anthologists who produce “best of the year” volumes, since those editors read everything, and select by quality, not by whether stories are free.)

For my part, I subscribe to the New York Times, The New Yorker, The Atlantic, and (online only) Washington Post, as well as Time, The Week, Scientific American, National Geographic, Free Inquiry, and Skeptical Inquirer. Many other sites that are paywalled allow you to read 3 or 4 articles a month for free; and they all allow you to see their homepages, see their lead stories and how they frame them, for free, every single day. (Thus, you never saw any of these reputable sites mention that nonsense Pl*nd*m*c video except in articles about baseless conspiracy theories.) I keep refining the sites I look at each day, more or less, based on what I see from compilation sites, and from excerpts in my favorite print magazine, The Week (its website is a pale counterpart). It’s also worth checking out sites like BBC and Guardian to get British takes on American news, since they have a different political alignment than the US Democratic/Republican split.

As a general rule of thumb, as I think I’ve said before, check out the Media Bias Chart (there are several versions floating around out there) and avoid the extremes. (Though I tend to think that, as the saying goes, Reality has a liberal bias; or perhaps, Liberals have a reality bias; conservatives are committed to ideology despite evidence. And so I do look at some sources toward the left of this chart, and none of those toward the right.)

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One more for today. Given the conservative outrage over former President Obama’s eulogy for the late civil rights leader John Lewis, Damon Linker at The Week examines Why Obama still drives Republicans nuts.

It’s not just racism. Longish article, but here’s the key passage, considering Bernie Sanders and Obama:

Yet the difference remains: Sanders doesn’t provoke rage like Obama does. While some might point to race, I doubt those made apoplectic by a Black politician would be comparatively forgiving to a septuagenarian Jewish social democrat with a thick Brooklyn accent. Something else is going on, and I think it’s that the right accepts that Sanders just pushes his factional agenda from the socialist left and doesn’t presume to speak from outside of or above the partisan fray.

Obama, by contrast, doesn’t know how to speak in any other rhetorical register than above and beyond the partisan fray. He invariably sounds reasonable, his tone fair-minded, objective. He speaks of the grand sweep of American history, renders Solomonic judgments, and looks down on the disputants on the field of battle, even as his proposals invariably advance the liberal-progressive side of the clashes taking place below him.

That is what drives — and has always driven — the right nuts about Obama. It’s his supposed pretense to elevation, to speaking in dispassionate terms about “us,” about what’s morally righteous and true, and rendering sometimes severe moral judgments of his opponents. He’s a master of using a rhetoric of elevation to ennoble himself and his allies while casting implicit moral aspersions on his political foes, whom he portrays as self-evidently dishonorable, all the while sounding as if he’s merely reciting the indisputable facts of the case. His tone at all times is that of a disapproving parent: You should be ashamed of yourselves.

Obama speaks to the entire nation, as an adult, while Trump speaks to his supporters as a petulant child, and considers all his non-supporters enemies of the state. If some foreign adversary wanted to install a candidate to erode the American commitment to democracy, they might well have installed Trump. I don’t really believe this; it’s a conspiracy theory, and Trump and his minions aren’t smart enough to have participated in such a conspiracy. Yet Putin took advantage of their gullibility, and he’s the one who’s winning.

Posted in Lunacy, Politics | Comments Off on Links and Comments: Reputable News Sources; Conservative Animus toward Obama

Quote: David McRaney

From his 2011 book YOU ARE NOT SO SMART, which I blogged here about in 2013. One particular idea came to mind again recently (which I managed to track down to this book, though it’s likely discussed in others), considering my recent comments about crowds, peer pressure, social conformity, and thinking for oneself.

Chapter 33 of the book is called “Conformity” and begins with his standard misconception/truth contrast that he uses at the start of each of his many short chapters (which began as blog posts):

THE MISCONCEPTION: You are a strong individual who doesn’t conform unless forced to.

THE TRUTH: It takes little more than an authority figure or social pressure to get you to obey, because conformity is a survival instinct.

This is one of those books that draws upon the experimental psychology experiments of recent decades. (Though actually this experiment goes way back!) The particular one I recalled is described thus:

If I were to hand you a card with a single line on it, and then hand you another card with an identical line drawn near two others, one longer and one shorter, do you think you could match up the original to the copy? Could you tell which line in a group of three was the same length as the one on the first card?

You could. Just about anyone would be able to match up lines of equal lengthy in just a few seconds. Now, what if you were part of a group trying to come to a consensus, and the majority of the people said a line that was clearly shorter than the original was the one that matched? How would you react?

In 1951, psychologist Solomon Asch [see here, under “Conformity experiments”] used to perform an experiment where he would get a group of people together and show them cards like the ones described above. He would then ask the group the same sort of questions. Without coercion, about 2 percent of people answered incorrectly. In the next run of the experiment, Asch added actors to the group who all agreed to incorrectly answer his questions. If he asked which line was the same, or longer, or shorter, or whatever, they would force one hapless subject to be alone in disagreement.

You probably think you would go against the grain and shake your head in disbelief. You think you might say to yourself, “How could these people be so stupid?” Well, I hate to break it to you, but the researches says you would eventually break. In Asch’s experiments, 75 percent of the subjects caved in on at least one question. They looked at the lines, knew the answer everyone else was agreeing to was wrong, and went with it anyway. Not only did they conform without being pressured, but when questioned later they seemed oblivious to their own conformity. When the experimenter told them they had made an error, they came up with excuses as to why they made mistakes instead of blaming the others. Intelligent people just like you caved in, went with the group, and then seemed confused as to why.

…The percentage of people who conformed grew proportionally with the number of people who joined in consensus against them. Once the entire group other than the subject was replaced with actors, only 25 percent of his subjects answered every question correctly.

McRaney goes on with the famous Stanley Milgram experiment in 1963. I recall the example above because it reinforces my provisional conclusion that wisdom and understanding of the real world is a private project; it is not to be found in protesting mobs, political rallies, or church congregations.

The more complex take is in his chapter header: It’s a survival instinct, to conform. And surviving is distinct from understanding, or even correctly perceiving, reality. Another theme here.

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Heinlein, SPACE CADET (1948)

I’m reviewing detailed notes of books I’ve read in recent years but not yet posted about, and boiling them down into summaries and comments more useful to readers than if I simply posted all the detailed notes. (And in truth, I rarely examine the detailed notes myself, years down the line; paragraph summaries like the one below are more useful. So I may be shifting my strategy…)

This 1948 novel was the second of the so-called “Heinlein juveniles,” what would today be called Young Adult novels, that Heinlein published beginning in 1947, running one a year for a dozen years, with one last one after another five years.

Gist

A young man joins the Interplanetary Patrol, its base in Colorado, where he undergoes training there and in orbit, then participates in two space missions, one to find a missing ship in the asteroid belt, the second to subdue an apparent native revolt on Venus.

Take

This is a really good book, imaginative and clever and even moving, though it falls apart near the end with outrageous coincidences and implausible deus ex machinas (noted below with the exclamation points).

Brief Summary

In 2075, Matt Dodson arrives at Terra Base in Colorado to train to be a cadet in the Interplanetary Space Patrol. He meets other candidates; they undergo various tests; then are launched into orbit to the Terra Space Station. They’re educated via hypnosis and learn how to maneuver in free fall. He passes the tests for cadethood and departs for Moon Base, then leaves on a mission to the asteroid belt to find a missing ship, the Pathfinder; it’s found, its crew dead of a freak accident. They find evidence the asteroids was inhabited and destroyed by nuclear war. On the trip home they divert to Venus to check out reports of a native uprising, and as they land their ship tips over into the mud. They discover the skipper of an earlier ship, Burke, who caused the ruckus by kidnapping one of the aliens in his search for trans-uranium elements. The cadets negotiate with the local aliens and are shown an even earlier ship, from 1971 [a century before], presumed lost yet somehow preserved. They manage to get it working (!) with fuel and oxygen provided by the natives, who apparently can duplicate anything (!). They return to the cadet ship in Earth orbit, having only done what is expected of Patrolmen.

Notes and Quotes

First of all, as I’ve been rereading classic SF, both novels and story collections, in recent years, I often buy a new edition of each book, especially if the one I originally read years ago was a mass market paperback. Such paperbacks of the ‘60s and ‘70s were usually compressed affairs, with tiny print (compared to hardcovers) to keep the page counts down and thus cost low. For this book I found a 2005 Tor/Orb trade paperback edition, with a nice impressionistic cover illustration by Vincent di Fate. Unfortunately, the quality of the print itself was poor, as if offset; just slightly blurry. So I read the old Ace edition instead (left in photo) and so the page references here are to that. The two editions are virtually the same page count, but somehow they don’t quite align, so the page references here will only get you to within a page or two of the same passage in the Orb edition.

Remember this was published in 1948.

  • The cadets are international; Matt notices others in turbans and with black faces p8.4; they carry phones in their pockets, p8; they check in using thumb prints p11. Matt notices how cadets, having become accustomed to zero-gee, walk slightly crouched, p13.
  • Heinlein understands about variable thrust, p35, as rockets launch.
  • The candidates are told that not only will they be taught conventional subjects, which are simply raw materials. “You real job is to learn how to think—and that means you must study several other subjects: epistemology, scientific methodology, semantics, structures of languages, patterns of ethics and morals, varieties of logic, motivational psychology, and so on.” Good stuff! They then go on to discuss what it means to be moral. P72.
  • Aboard the cadet ship in orbit, the commodore observes that “Every military organization—with the Patrol no exception—suffered from an inherent vice. A military hierarchy automatically places a premium on conservative behavior and dull conformance with precedent; it tends to penalize original and imaginative thinking.” And so he holds discussion groups with theses that attack conventional values, like monotheism and motherly love, forcing them to examine their preconceived notions. (p101)
  • Later Matt is told there are basically three types of people, p111: “People tend to fall into three psychological types, all differently motivated. There is the type, motivated by economic factors, money… and there is the type motivated to ‘face,’ or pride. This type is a spender, fighter, boaster, lover, sportsman, gambler; he has a will to power and an itch for glory. And there is the professional type, which claims to follow a code of ethics rather than simply seeking money or glory—priests and ministers, teachers, scientists, medical men, some artists and writers. The idea is that such a man believes that he is devoting his life to some purpose more important than his individual life.”
  • Visiting his family on leave he comes to realize he doesn’t speak their language anymore. His old girlfriend is the “sort of girl” who never quite understands the difference between a planet and a star; his mother is alarmed that one of the orbiting nuclear bombs might fall onto their house; his father doesn’t understand the international flavor of the patrol and presumes American control. Back in orbit, Matt worries he doesn’t have what it takes, and the counselor says “Matt, you are suffering from a disease of youth—you expect moral problems to have nice, neat black-and-white answers.” (p126.4)
  • Out in space, discussion of perspectives: “We’ve [the Patrol] given the human race a hundred years of peace, and now there is no one left who remembers war. They’ve come to accept peace and comfort as the normal way of life. But it isn’t. The human animal has millions of years of danger and starving and death behind him; the past century is just a flicker of an eyelash in his history.” P142. And about the mysterious Martians and their ‘double-world’ idea: “If the [human] race manages to keep from blowing its top for a few million years, maybe we’ll begin to find out some things. So far, we don’t even know what questions to ask.” (We learn more about these Martians in the following year’s book, RED PLANET.)
  • Echoing the discussion of military hierarchies, p180: “Precedent is merely the assumption that somebody else, in the past with less information, nevertheless knows better than the man on the spot.” (This is the problem with the law, it seems to me; it is built to not correct itself.)
  • Later in the book they communicate with the Venusians (this at a time was Venus was presumed to be a swampland underneath its unbroken clouds). P194: “Matt was forced willy-nilly into the concepts of astronomy—and came up against a complete block. To Th’wing there was the world of water and swamp and occasional dry land; above that was the endless cloud. She knew the Sun, for her eyes, perceptive to infra-red, could see it, even though Matt could not, but she thought of it as a disc of light and warmth, not as a star. / As for other stars, none of her people had ever seen them and the idea did not exist. The notion of another planet was not ridiculous; it was simply incomprehensible.” The natives assume the incomprehensible terms the human use refer to religious beliefs.

As I reread Heinlein, I’m trying to be attentive not just to political and social opinions, but also the implied background. Thus here there are ties to Heinlein’s future history, with references to the atomic wars of a century ago, etc. And how this Federation, and the Patrol, is a peace-keeping organization, not any kind of military.

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Quote: Carl Sagan, Cosmos Chapter IV: Heaven and Hell

The end of chapter IV. 40 years ago the scientists were already warning about the perturbation of the planet’s climate.

Our lovely blue planet, the Earth, is the only home we know. Venus is too hot. Mars is too cold. But the Earth is just right, a heaven for humans. After all, we evolved here. but our congenial climate may be unstable. We are perturbing our poor planet in serious and contradictory ways. Is there any danger of driving the environment of the Earth toward a planetary Hell of Venus of the global ice age of Mars? The simple answer is that nobody knows…

A few million years ago, when human beings first evolved on Earth, it was already a middle-aged world, 4.6 billion years along from the catastrophe and impetuosities of its youth. But we humans now represent a new and perhaps decisive factor. Our intelligence and our technology have given us the power to affect the climate. How will we use this power? Are we willing to tolerate ignorance and complacency in matters that affect the entire human family? Do we value short-term advantages above the welfare of the Earth? Or will we think on longer time scales, with concern for our children and our grandchildren, to understand and protect the complex life-support systems of our planet? The Earth is a tiny and fragile world. It needs to be cherished.

The book and TV versions of Cosmos overlap considerably but are not exactly the same. The book expands on many topics, of course, without the time limits of a 1-hour TV episode. Yet the TV shows indulged in visuals that aren’t easily captured in print. In this case, Episode IV of the TV series ends with a montage of how “Everything changes eventually” — images of storms, volcanoes, fires, burning of forests, climatic catastrophes… Huge trucks. Eventually the damage becomes irreversible. Pollution. Short term profits, or long-term habitability.

And so the last few minutes of this episode look like a trailer, or perhaps an inspiration, for the famous Godfrey Reggio/ Philip Glass film Koyaanisqatski (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koyaanisqatsi), which I saw in a theater upon first release, and have rewatched several times over the years on videotape and DVD. Its thesis has been challenged, but after all these years, I think it’s as valid as ever.

I’m rewatching the Cosmos TV series, one episode a week or so, in part because when I saw it as originally broadcast in 1980, I must have watched it on the 12 or 15 inch black and white TV set that I had at the time. I’ve never seen it in color, until now.

Posted in Science | Comments Off on Quote: Carl Sagan, Cosmos Chapter IV: Heaven and Hell

Links and Comments: Coronavirus, Conservative Propaganda, Vaccines, Flat-Earthers, the view of the US from around the world

NYT, Paul Krugman: The Cult of Selfishness Is Killing America; subtitle: The right has made irresponsible behavior a key principle.

So we’re failing dismally on both the epidemiological and the economic fronts. But why?

So what was going on? Were our leaders just stupid? Well, maybe. But there’s a deeper explanation of the profoundly self-destructive behavior of Trump and his allies: They were all members of America’s cult of selfishness.

You see, the modern U.S. right is committed to the proposition that greed is good, that we’re all better off when individuals engage in the untrammeled pursuit of self-interest. In their vision, unrestricted profit maximization by businesses and unregulated consumer choice is the recipe for a good society.

Support for this proposition is, if anything, more emotional than intellectual. I’ve long been struck by the intensity of right-wing anger against relatively trivial regulations, like bans on phosphates in detergent and efficiency standards for light bulbs. It’s the principle of the thing: Many on the right are enraged at any suggestion that their actions should take other people’s welfare into account.

This rage is sometimes portrayed as love of freedom. But people who insist on the right to pollute are notably unbothered by, say, federal agents tear-gassing peaceful protesters. What they call “freedom” is actually absence of responsibility.

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The Week (my favorite print magazine): Conservative propaganda has crippled the U.S. coronavirus response

Why does the United States have the worst coronavirus outbreak in the developed world? Part of the answer is surely that our basic state functions have been allowed to rot, or been deliberately destroyed, over the years. State capacity and competence have been shown around the world to be a key factor in whether nations can get a handle on the pandemic.

But another reason is conservative media. A small but nevertheless very loud and angry minority of Americans have had their ability to reason dissolved in a corrosive bath of crack-brained propaganda.

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Business Insider: A 20-year study on dozens of vaccines finds they are safer than ‘almost any other modern medical intervention’

The trouble is, some people just don’t “believe” evidence; their minds are made up for reasons not based on evidence.

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Boing Boing: Strap in for a detailed explainer on flat-earthers’ beliefs

It’s a video that I haven’t watched more than a part; the site that linked this characterized the subject as “a proxy for a much larger paradigm that mistrusts anything that you can’t touch and feel.” In other words, the very bottom level of my awareness hierarchy. Or maybe (they overlap) the understanding hierarchy.

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Salon: A field guide to the pandemic deniers.

Every day there is more data to prove the dangers of the coronavirus. Yet, bizarrely, the more proof we have of the damage of the pandemic; the more vicious and hysterical its deniers. It is hard not to be overwhelmed by the sheer volume of uninformed, deluded ideas covidiots spew on a daily basis. We mourn not just the lives lost and the bodies damaged, but the collective intelligence of our nation. With international news consistently depicting the United States as the dumbest nation in the developed world, it is as if news of the covidiocy is almost as depressing as news of the virus’s spread itself.

With discussion of The Eye Rollers, The Shoulder Shruggers, The Narcissistic Hedonists, The Self-Proclaimed Scientists, and The Conspiracy Theorists.

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The Guardian [a UK newspaper]: Europeans’ trust in US as world leader collapses during pandemic; subtitle: “Many citizens appalled by Donald Trump’s handling of coronavirus crisis, study finds”

More than 60% of respondents in Germany, France, Spain, Denmark and Portugal said they had lost trust in the United States as a global leader.

In almost every country surveyed, a majority of people said their perception of the US had deteriorated since the outbreak. Negative attitudes of the US were most marked in Denmark (71%) Portugal (70%), France (68%), Germany (65%) and Spain (64%). In France, 46% and in Germany 42% said their view of the US had worsened “a lot” during the pandemic.

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And a video at New York Times: ‘That’s Ridiculous.’ How America’s Coronavirus Response Looks Abroad. Subtitle: “From lockdowns to testing, we showed people around the world the facts and figures on how the U.S. has handled the pandemic.”

You’ll never see this on Fox News.

Posted in Conservative Resistance, Politics, Science | Comments Off on Links and Comments: Coronavirus, Conservative Propaganda, Vaccines, Flat-Earthers, the view of the US from around the world

Links and Comments: Wackadoodle Coronavirus Advice from the Right

Vox: How Trump and his son helped make a Covid-19 conspiracy theorist go viral in a matter of hours.

A quack doctor with claims about alien DNA, belief in demons, that scientists are making a vaccine to stop people from being religious, and how the US government is partly run by lizard people, says masks are worthless and hydroxychloroquine is the cure for the virus. So Trump, who has no moral compass or understanding of the real world, and his son, promotes a video of her on the Capitol steps.

Slate: Caught Lying About Baseball Invite, President Calls Twitter Criticism “Illegal” and Endorses Demon-Sperm Doctor and Social Media Companies Take Down Trump-Shared Viral Video of Coronavirus Conspiracies.

Washington Post reports. “Immanuel says she previously worked as a doctor in Nigeria and also calls herself a ‘Deliverance Minister’ who is ‘God’s battle axe and weapon of war.’ She has given sermons attacking progressive values and promoting conspiracy theories including, in her words, ‘the gay agenda, secular humanism, Illuminati and the demonic new world order.’ Another doctor shown in the video, a noted Trump supporter, called Immanuel a ‘warrior.’ ”

Promoted by Brietbart. Defended, of course, by Fox News (Tucker Carlson …) and Rush Limbaugh (Rush Limbaugh defends COVID-19 conspiracy theorist doctor who believes in alien DNA), who think science and reason are a liberal conspiracy.

Seriously, is the right-wing so clueless about how the world actually works — demons? lizard people? — that they would promote this twaddle? As if there weren’t so many other reasons, here are reasons to dismiss anything said by Trump, his son, Fox News, Breitbart, Rush Limbaugh, and all their cohorts, forever. Unless they post retractions and apologies. Which I’m guessing they never do.

A broader subject for later: why are Republicans, and conservatives, unconcerned that the politicians they support are so consistently dimwits (Reagan, the Bushes) or morons (Sarah Palin, Donald Trump)? Can they not tell? Do they not care? (The occasional respectable Republican, like John McCain, never made it to high office.) That is: Is that the best they can do? If the evangelicals need the despicable moron Trump to stay in office indefinitely to ensure that their values — primarily, I gather, their anti-gay, anti-abortion, pro-Christianity — endure via judges on the Supreme Court and in judiciaries on down — then maybe those values aren’t worth preserving.

Posted in Lunacy, Politics | Comments Off on Links and Comments: Wackadoodle Coronavirus Advice from the Right

Links and Comments: Graphics and Lists

In thinking about Andrew Sullivan’s old Daily Dish blog, a few posts ago, I dug into my archive directories and found text file saves of bookmarks from various old computers, as far back as 2008, including one from my work PC in 2014 (when I was still contracting). They accumulate differently and never match (just as well) and I was startled by how many bookmarks there were for sites I found regularly interesting and followed sometimes for years, before letting it them fall away. There are, after all, only so many hours in the day.

Among those old bookmarks were a few rather cheeky ones on religion and pseudoscience, which I don’t think I’ve linked anywhere on this site before. But let’s start with one I saw just today on Facebook, partly because I’m wondering if WordPress here will display the image if I simply enter its URL:

History of Religion (by Paul Kinsella)

I guess it does display it! This is, as it says, from a cartoonist named Paul Kinsella, who doesn’t seem to have a personal site, except for his Facebook page. Another, one-panel, cartoon, seen while Googling:

Person #1: “What’s it like being an atheist?”
Person #2: “Do you think Zeus is real?”
Person #1: “No.
Person #2: “Like that.”

Which brings us to this refound link from an old bookmarks page: Gods We Don’t Believe In.

You can click to the webpage, but for consistency in this post I’ll show part of it as an image:


The full lists are quite long (12 page-down screens on my laptop) of the names of various ancient and current gods from every religion imaginable. The two columns are exactly the same except that the right one has one more name at the bottom: Yahweh. (I wish I could find a better-sourced such list — there are, of course, lists of various ancient gods on Wikipedia — but the point is valid nonetheless.)

My thought about this issue has always been that if the question is, do you believe in God?, the answer isn’t yes or no, it’s, which one? Or perhaps the question should be, who’s your favorite god, and why? The Old Testament is frankly polytheistic. “Thou shalt have no other gods before me” not “Pay no attention to those false gods worshiped by other tribes…”; the commandment presumes that the gods of other tribes are as real as the god who supposedly issued the commandment. Remnants of polytheism lie in the Catholic church’s over 10,000 saints (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_saints), one for every subject imaginable it seems, echoing the Greek and Roman pantheons of specialty gods; and for that matter the Christian god who is really three gods but actually one. (Not to mention all these angels and demons that many Christians apparently believe in.)

I imagine the impatient Christian would say, but I believe in the *one true God,* the same one all believers believe in, even if their religious practices vary. We’re all worshiping the same true god.

And my response is yet another bookmark that I saved years ago: The Dummy’s Guide to the One True God.

From here you can right-click (on a PC) to “view image” and see it full screen. Again, I don’t have an original source for this; it was linked from some blog I was reading in 2012, without a credit to the original author. The point is valid nonetheless: they’re obviously *not* all the same. This is the primary point of Stephen Prothero’s book God Is Not One.

Finally, to expand the scope from religion, here’s “The Venn Diagram of Irrational Nonsense”:

Again, right-click to view image full-sized. It originally appeared here, on a prototypical “some guy on the web” blog, inactive for a year now, but nevertheless makes a couple valid points. I’m not particularly interested in the accuracy of his Venn overlaps. The main point is that the scope and extent of human belief in things that are psychologically appealing but have no verifiable basis is vast. And second point, much as in the world of conspiracy theories, is that followers of one of these beliefs, including the religious ones, would likely be indignant to be included on a chart with all those other obviously nonsensical beliefs. And the others all feel the same about them.

 

Posted in Lunacy, Religion | Comments Off on Links and Comments: Graphics and Lists